MLB: What to watch on May 24, 2026

• 24 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

The top gNERD score of today's slate — and one of the highest in the historical dataset — this game earns its place at the top thanks to a dominant Dodgers squad facing a scrappy, young Brewers team, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the main attraction. Coming off a 2025 World Series MVP performance and a Cy Young finalist nod, Yamamoto is pitching as well as anyone in baseball right now.

After earning his first All-Star selection in 2025, Yamamoto helped the Dodgers win a second consecutive World Series title, claiming World Series MVP in the process. His xFIP- of 79 — well above average — anchors a pNERD of 7.96, which sits comfortably above the 75th percentile of starters historically. He works with a fastball averaging 95 mph, a deceptive splitter, a cutter, and a curveball, giving hitters plenty to worry about.

On the other side, Brandon Sproat is a 25-year-old with good velocity (96.7 mph) but an xFIP- of 110, meaning he's below average by the numbers. His pNERD of 5.25 gets a significant boost from his age and a large positive luck value — suggesting he's been pitching worse than his underlying skills, so improvement is plausible.

Yamamoto has 56 strikeouts this season, and the Dodgers' offense backs him up: their batting runs rank near the top of the league, with a barrel rate and fielding that both contribute meaningfully to a tNERD of 10.81 — the highest in today's slate. Milwaukee's youth (tNERD of 6.64, boosted by a below-average payroll and a young roster) keeps this from being a complete mismatch on paper.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Milwaukee Brewers

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

I was only able to retrieve information on Drew Rasmussen before hitting the search limit. Let me work with what I have and the provided statistics.

Two pitchers with xFIP- scores well below league average anchor a gNERD of 14.73 — near the 95th percentile of today's games and historically — making this one of the better watchability cases on the slate. The Yankees' offensive firepower adds a compelling counterweight to what looks like a genuine pitching showcase.

Ryan Weathers leads the way with a pNERD of 9.99, driven by an xFIP- of 67 — meaning he's pitching roughly a third better than league average after park and luck adjustments. Rasmussen brings his own compelling backstory: he returned from his third major elbow surgery in 2024 as a reliever, then answered every question in 2025 by earning an All-Star nod as a starter. He's continued that form in 2026, posting a 3.16 FIP-adjacent line with 43 strikeouts across 42.2 innings and an xFIP- of 77, good for a pNERD of 7.17. He's allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this season.

On the team side, the Yankees are the real draw — their barrel rate ranks among the best in today's games, and their batting and fielding numbers both contribute positively to a tNERD of 9.82. The Rays, by contrast, grade out near the bottom of today's field at 2.46, dragged down by a below-average barrel rate and poor fielding. Two elite arms vs. one of baseball's most dangerous lineups is exactly the tension that makes a game worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:35a

Summary

Let me search for Andrew Painter separately now.I was only able to complete one search this turn. Let me work with what I have and note what I know about Andrew Painter from my training data, combined with the NERD statistics provided.

Two young pitchers with something to prove make this one of the more watchable games on today's slate — and Painter's luck component suggests his surface numbers may be masking better underlying stuff than he's shown. This game sits well above the historical median gNERD of ~10, driven largely by strong pitcher scores on both sides.

Messick enters this season with a 3.1 xFIP and a 23.9% strikeout rate, and his pNERD of 8.58 — comfortably above the 75th percentile historically — reflects a legitimately elite xFIP- of 74. He came up at the end of last season, starting seven games, and in his 2026 debut against the Dodgers, finished with six strong innings, five strikeouts, and zero runs allowed. He also works fast, with a 16.7-second pace that ranks among the quickest in the game. Painter, at just 23, brings 96+ mph heat and a pNERD of 6.33, though his xFIP- of 107 suggests he hasn't yet delivered on his billing — and a substantial positive luck value means he's been underperforming even those underlying numbers, so improvement is plausible. Cleveland's tNERD of 7.57 gets a boost from a young, cheap roster; Philly's lineup has been underwhelming offensively this year. Two talented young arms, a low-payroll underdog, and a Phillies team that needs to start hitting — worth your time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Philadelphia Phillies

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 1:10p

Summary

Two teams with genuine offensive firepower, a compelling backstory on the mound, and a gNERD of 12.66 — this one sits solidly in the upper quarter of today's slate and above the historical median. Foster Griffin's journey from brief MLB cameo to three NPB seasons to surprise rotation piece makes this more than a generic Sunday afternoon game.

Griffin, a 2014 first-round pick, got only a handful of MLB appearances before heading to Japan, where he put together three strong campaigns. He's returned with an expanded seven-pitch arsenal — sweeper, sinker, and splitter added to his original mix — and he's deploying all of them regularly. His xFIP- of 94 is modestly above average, and his luck component (positive 6.0) suggests some mild underperformance relative to his underlying numbers. His 12.6% barrel rate is a concern, but his xFIP and SIERA point to a back-of-rotation stabilizer rather than an ace.

The Braves bring the more compelling team profile: Atlanta sits at 16-8, with strong batting runs (32.1), a top-tier barrel rate (0.100), and solid fielding. The Nationals counter with excellent baserunning and a young roster — their age component (27.1 years average) is one of the better contributors to their tNERD of 7.70. Both tNERD scores rank well above the historical average of 5.23. The one drag: Washington's bullpen has been a liability, so if Griffin exits early, the entertainment value could shift in an unpleasant direction.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

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Athletics @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

The Padres' bullpen is quietly one of the best in baseball, and Michael King anchors a rotation that makes San Diego worth watching. The Athletics come in as a legitimate contender, not just a feel-good story, and their significant luck-based underperformance suggests they're due for better results.

The Athletics have won three straight and sit at .520, a team that has quietly built something worth paying attention to. The Padres, sitting in first in the NL West, are playing this series at home. The gNERD of 12.31 lands comfortably above the historical median of 10.10, driven largely by two strong team scores. Mason Miller's 0.79 FIP and 15 saves make late innings near-automatic for San Diego when they hold a lead, and the Padres' bullpen leads the supporting stats here with a tNERD of 8.98 — among the better team scores in today's slate. The Athletics carry a luck component of +1.21, meaning they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and should expect improvement. On the mound, Michael King (xFIP- of 92, pNERD of 4.31) is a solid mid-rotation arm. King leads the Padres in strikeouts, though his strike rate is a mild drag on his profile. Luis Medina has no statistical data available (pNERD: 0.00), which is the main thing holding this game's score back. The Padres are also managing a crowded injury list, with Jake Cronenworth on the IL with a concussion and Joe Musgrove on the 60-day IL.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Athletics

San Diego Padres

Luis Medina, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays, 9:15a

Summary

Dylan Cease is having a genuine Cy Young-caliber season, and his pNERD of 10.29 — the highest among today's starters and in the 95th percentile historically — reflects it. The Pirates' Mitch Keller is a serviceable counter, but this game's watchability lives and dies with Cease on the mound.

Cease has been everything Toronto hoped for when they signed him to a seven-year, $210 million deal, leading MLB in strikeouts through his first several starts. His xFIP- of 63 is genuinely elite, and he's changed his pitch mix, adding a changeup that's given left-handed hitters fits. Only Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski has struck out more batters in MLB this season. The luck component in his pNERD (+0.50) suggests he's actually been slightly underperforming his underlying numbers, meaning the results could get even better.

Keller's pNERD of 3.81 is right around average — his xFIP- of 98 is league-average and his swinging-strike rate is a mild drag. The Pirates do bring a solid baserunning game (best positive tNERD component), while Toronto's lineup has been searching for answers, particularly without Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger. The Blue Jays' low barrel rate and negative batting runs confirm the offense has been the weak link. Come for Cease; temper expectations for the run-scoring.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Toronto Blue Jays

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

Christian Scott's return from Tommy John surgery is the most compelling reason to tune into this one — a pitcher with a revamped arsenal and legitimate upside taking the mound in his home state. The Marlins' team profile adds some genuine watchability too, even if neither starter has enough accumulated stats this season for a pNERD score.

Scott underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2024 and missed the entire 2025 season. He's come back with a new look: he replaced his slider with a cut-fastball and now works with a three-fastball mix, and his fastball velocity has jumped from 94.2 mph in 2024 to 96.1 mph this year. His overall Stuff+ was 100 in 2024; this season it's up to 108. Tyler Phillips carries a pNERD of 0 as well, meaning we're flying blind on both starters statistically.

On the team side, Miami's tNERD of 7.20 is the more interesting number — driven by strong baserunning (2.00 component), a young roster (age component: 1.49), and a lean payroll that punches above its weight (1.39). The Mets' offense is a genuine drag (-1.57 batting runs component), though their bullpen is solid. The gNERD of 10.94 lands right around the historical median, making this a perfectly average watch — elevated mainly by Scott's storyline.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Christian Scott, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 13, and Imanaga — their best pitcher — takes the mound in a series finale trying to stop the bleeding. That alone makes this worth watching.

The Cubs, who have lost 11 of 13, also had a pair of 10-game winning streaks earlier this season — a wild swing that gives this game real stakes. Chicago's current seven-game losing streak is its longest since a nine-game slide in 2022. Imanaga is their best hope to end it: he's struck out 61 batters across 58.2 innings, and his xFIP- of 86 (the best mark in this game) reflects genuine skill. His swinging-strike rate is strong, and he's the primary reason the Cubs' pNERD side of the ledger looks good. The Cubs' tNERD of 8.14 is driven by excellent fielding and solid offense, though the bullpen has been a problem, posting a 5.72 ERA for relievers. Lambert is a reasonable counter — he has 35 strikeouts over 35.1 innings and a solid 3.31 FIP — but Houston's 22-31 record, fourth in the AL West, tells the fuller story. The gNERD of 10.81 lands right at the historical median, but the Cubs' desperation angle and Imanaga's quality push this one above average for a Sunday watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Houston Astros

Chicago Cubs

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Two struggling teams, two competent pitchers, and a series finale that should be tighter than either club's record suggests — this one is squarely average, which is exactly where its gNERD of 10.27 lands, right at the historical median.

Seattle comes in at 24-27 while Kansas City sits at 20-30, and neither offense has been inspiring. The Mariners have averaged under three runs per game over the last week. The Royals' tNERD (4.64) is dragged down by a notably weak offense (-0.94 component) and a bullpen that's been one of the league's worst (-1.26). Seattle's tNERD (5.47) gets a modest boost from a solid bullpen and a positive luck component — meaning they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and could be due for some offensive improvement.

Bryan Woo (4-2) takes the ball for Seattle, while Seth Lugo (1-4) goes for Kansas City. Woo's pNERD of 5.88 is the more interesting arm here — he's 26 years old, throws 95.5 mph, and posts a strong strike rate. Lugo, at 36, compensates for below-average swinging strikes with an exceptionally quick pace (16.3 seconds between pitches), which actually boosts his pNERD to a respectable 4.55. Woo faced the Royals earlier this season and allowed seven hits and six earned runs in six innings, so there's some revenge-game texture here. A fine watch if pitching efficiency is your thing; don't expect a fireworks show.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Kansas City Royals

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

A series finale between two NL Central neighbors with middling pitching on both sides — serviceable but not appointment viewing. The Cardinals' youth and surprisingly solid team construction give them a slight edge in watchability, but this game's gNERD of 9.75 lands right around the historical median, and the pitching matchup is the main reason it doesn't climb higher.

St. Louis sits at 28-21, third in the NL Central, while Cincinnati comes in at 26-24 in fifth — close enough that the Reds are 2.5 games behind the Cardinals and looking to move up the standings. The Cardinals' tNERD of 6.61 is the stronger of the two, driven notably by their youth (average age 26.9) and a below-market payroll of $111M that punches above its weight. The Reds bring a high barrel rate that grades well, but their bullpen is a genuine liability — the worst component on either team's sheet.

Liberatore is 2-2 with a 1.55 WHIP across 51.2 innings, having allowed 60 hits, 20 walks, and 9 home runs — and his xFIP- of 105 confirms he's a below-average starter by the numbers. Singer is in worse shape: he's 2-4 with a 6.26 ERA over 46 innings, allowing 66 hits and 14 home runs. His xFIP- of 111 is the weakest mark in this game, though his luck score of 37 suggests he's been pitching even worse than his underlying skills would predict — some regression toward the mean is likely. Both pitchers work quickly, which at least keeps things moving. The Reds earned their first win in a game started by someone other than Chase Burns or Andrew Abbott since April 25 — a reminder of just how thin Cincinnati's rotation depth is beyond their top two.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:20p

Summary

The pitching matchup here is more compelling than the teams themselves, but with the Angels sitting at 19-34 and dragging the league's worst tNERD score into this one, "compelling" is doing some heavy lifting. Still, Reid Detmers and MacKenzie Gore give this game a floor worth acknowledging.

Detmers (pNERD: 6.60) is the more interesting arm of the two — his xFIP- of 93 suggests he's been a bit better than his 1-5 record implies, and a positive luck component of 1.00 suggests his results have lagged his underlying performance. At 26, he's still a name to watch develop. Gore (pNERD: 5.07) brings 95.4 mph average velocity and a similarly positive luck component (0.90), meaning he too may be pitching better than his surface numbers show. Neither is a true ace, but both are young enough to make this a watchable start-to-start duel.

The Angels come in at 19-34, and their tNERD of 0.73 is the lowest of any team in today's slate — a reflection of poor baserunning, shaky fielding, and a bullpen that's been a genuine liability. Mike Trout did hit a two-run homer to help the Angels clinch the series Saturday, so there's at least some pop in the lineup. The Rangers (tNERD: 4.60) are the more functional team, bolstered by a solid bullpen. At a gNERD of 8.50 — below the historical median of 10.10 — this one sits in the lower half of watchability. The pitching is fine; everything around it, less so.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

Two sub-.500 teams wrapping up a series at Fenway, with Boston's elite defense propping up an otherwise shaky tNERD profile and neither starter inspiring much confidence on the mound. This one lands right at the 25th percentile of gNERD scores historically — watchable enough, but not a game you're rearranging your schedule for.

Minnesota sits at 24-27 while Boston is 22-28, and Minnesota is 6 games back in the AL Central while Boston trails its division by 12.5 games — so the stakes aren't exactly white-knuckle.

Boston's tNERD (7.49) is the more interesting half of this matchup, driven almost entirely by their fielding, which ranks among the best in the league — a 2.03 standard deviation above average in Fielding Runs. Their offense, however, is genuinely poor, sitting well below average in both Batting Runs and barrel rate. Boston also carries a significant positive luck value (1.29 component), meaning they're meaningfully underperforming their underlying numbers and due for better offensive production.

Both starters are below the historical median pNERD of 4.55. Ober's xFIP- of 114 is a real concern — that's a below-average pitcher by underlying metrics. Gray's 94 xFIP- is at least league-average, though his slow pace drags his score down. Neither profile screams "must-watch starter."

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Minnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

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Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:05p

Summary

Two teams that combined to lose over 90 games last year are both still scraping the AL East basement, and the pitching matchup isn't doing this game any favors either. With a gNERD of 8.28 — below the historical median of 10.10 and toward the lower end of today's slate — this one is a tough sell.

Detroit comes in at 20-32 (7-20 away), while Baltimore sits at 22-29 — two cellar dwellers who aren't exactly setting the league on fire. The Tigers are on a seven-game losing streak, and their team stats reflect the struggles: poor baserunning (-1.82 component), poor defense (-1.39), and below-average offense. The one silver lining for Detroit is a significant positive luck score, suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and may be due for some improvement.

On the mound, Baltimore sends Trevor Rogers (pNERD: 4.52, near the historical average), though his xFIP- of 111 signals he's been below average. His luck component of 1.00 suggests he's been pitching worse than his underlying metrics, so some regression upward is possible. Detroit's starter is TBD — a zero pNERD that adds genuine uncertainty to the watchability equation.

Detroit 2B Gleyber Torres is still unable to swing a bat due to an oblique injury, with his return timetable uncertain. Two struggling teams, one unknown starter, and a matchup that lands well below today's best offerings — there are better games on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

I was only able to retrieve information on Noah Schultz; let me search for Robbie Ray next.I was rate-limited on searches this turn. Let me compile what I have and write the summary based on what I found about Schultz, along with the NERD data. I'll note that Robbie Ray is a 34-year-old left-hander who previously won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award and has had injury/Tommy John history, which I know from my training data.

The main draw here is Noah Schultz, a 22-year-old rookie in his first MLB season, facing off against a Giants team that ranks among the least watchable in today's slate. The White Sox's surprisingly solid tNERD (7.90) — driven by a young roster and strong barrel rate — can't fully compensate for two pitchers whose underlying numbers leave something to be desired.

Schultz, who made his MLB debut on April 14, 2026, is the headliner in terms of storyline. The Sox' organizational overhaul is leaning heavily on his powerful left arm, and at 22, his age component gives him the biggest positive contribution to his pNERD (1.83). The problem is that his xFIP- of 122 — well above average — drags things down considerably, suggesting he's been hittable early in his career. His strike rate and swinging strike rate are also below average, which tracks with his minor league walk issues and struggles at Triple-A.

On the other side, Robbie Ray's xFIP- of 109 is mediocre, and at 34, he contributes nothing to the age component. The Giants' tNERD of 1.95 is near the bottom of today's games, weighed down by poor batting runs, a low barrel rate, and genuinely bad baserunning. Their luck component (10.0) is notable — they're underperforming their underlying numbers enough to suggest some improvement is possible, but that's cold comfort for watchability.

This game sits at a gNERD of 7.23, below both today's average (10.27) and the historical median (10.10). The rookie pitcher is worth a glance, but the overall product is a tough sell.

Let me now tighten this to the ~150-175 word target and format it properly per the instructions:

The main draw here is Noah Schultz, a 22-year-old rookie in his first MLB season — but his underlying numbers suggest the intrigue is more about potential than present performance. The White Sox's solid tNERD (7.90), driven by a young roster and strong barrel rate, can't fully compensate for two pitchers who are struggling with command and contact.

Schultz made his MLB debut on April 14, 2026, and the Sox' rebuild is leaning heavily on his left arm. His age (22) is his biggest asset in the pNERD calculation, but an xFIP- of 122 and below-average strike and swinging-strike rates tell a rougher story. His minor league walk issues and struggles at Triple-A have followed him up. Robbie Ray's xFIP- of 109 is uninspiring, and the Giants' tNERD of 1.95 is among the lowest in today's slate — poor batting, a basement-level barrel rate, and genuinely bad baserunning. At 7.23, this gNERD sits below both today's average and the historical median. Watch for Schultz's development arc, but don't rearrange your afternoon for it.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Chicago White Sox

San Francisco Giants

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 9:35a

Summary

Two struggling AL teams, two underwhelming pitchers, and a gNERD of 5.63 — sitting well below the historical median of 10.1 and near the bottom of today's slate. This one is hard to recommend with a straight face.

Detroit has lost seven in a row and 15 of their last 17, owning the third-worst record in baseball. Baltimore has dropped six of their last ten and owns the worst record in the AL East. Both tNERD scores reflect this: Detroit's 2.73 is dragged down by poor baserunning and fielding numbers, while Baltimore's slightly better 4.31 gets a lift from a solid bullpen. Detroit does carry a notable luck component (1.36), suggesting their underlying numbers aren't quite as bad as the results — but that's cold comfort given the streak.

On the mound, Framber Valdez, the prize acquisition of Detroit's offseason, has not lived up to his billing so far. His xFIP- of 103 and weak swinging-strike rate drag his pNERD to a middling 3.69. Brandon Young (3-1) gets the ball for Baltimore, with the Orioles winning his previous three starts, but his xFIP- of 129 is genuinely bad — among the worst in today's field — and his pNERD of 0.52 reflects it. There are better games to watch today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Baltimore Orioles

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

This is the lowest-rated game of the day, and the numbers tell you why: a 37-year-old Jose Quintana is posting an xFIP- of 139 — meaning he's about 39% worse than league average — with a swinging-strike rate barely registering and a strike percentage that's well below average. The pitching matchup alone is enough to make analytically-inclined fans reach for the remote.

Colorado sits at 20-32, while Arizona is 26-24. The Rockies' team NERD of 1.95 reflects a genuinely bad offensive unit — their batting runs of -39.7 ranks among the worst in the game — and Colorado is 10-17 away from Coors Field, where the altitude-assisted offense simply doesn't travel. Arizona is the more watchable side, with solid fielding (+9.8 fielding runs) contributing to their modest tNERD of 4.85, but their barrel rate and batting runs are both slightly below average.

Ryne Nelson comes in at 1-3 with a 5.19 ERA, and his pNERD of 3.58 is roughly average — his 96.3 mph velocity is a genuine asset, but his xFIP- of 115 still grades him out as below-average. Nelson does have a luck score suggesting he's been underperforming his underlying numbers, so some improvement is plausible. Quintana, meanwhile, has no such silver lining.

At a gNERD of 3.94 — the lowest of today's games and well below the historical median of around 10 — this one is for die-hards only.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jose Quintana, Colorado Rockies

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

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