MLB: What to watch on June 22, 2026

• 22 June 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Watch this for Gavin Williams — his high-octane, high-pNERD start turns what might otherwise be a slog into a live experiment: elite strikeout stuff against a White Sox staff that profiles as more hittable than dominant. The box score tease is real — a game gNERD of 13.04 sits well above the historical median and is the top game on the board today, thanks to Williams’ 10.21 pNERD and Chicago’s team-driven 8.02 tNERD. Williams has delivered multiple double-digit strikeout outings and a string of quality starts this month, pairing mid-90s velocity with swing-and-miss offerings that make him the clear engine of watchability. Anthony Kay’s low pNERD (0.97) and uneven recent results make him a live target; the White Sox have the barrel profile and payroll/age mix that suggest a louder, mistake-forcing lineup when Kay misses spots. Cleveland’s offense is below average by the tNERD components but their bullpen and younger roster balance add late-inning intrigue, so expect a game where starting-pitcher dominance (Williams) collides with matchup volatility (Kay and Chicago’s batted‑ball profile).

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This is an above‑average watch: the gNERD (11.99) lands just under the historical 75th percentile, driven by a lively Nationals profile and a tidy Foster Griffin start — but the Phillies’ starter is listed as TBD here, which keeps a bit of mystery in the mix. Washington’s tNERD (8.11) comes from real offense (positive batting runs, barrel rate and baserunning) while their bullpen has been shaky lately, which makes for high‑variance late innings; recent coverage flags the ‘pen as a recurring problem. Foster Griffin’s pNERD (5.32) and his xFIP‑ (91) suggest he’s a competent, slightly above‑average outing candidate who limits predictable contact — enough to suppress a middling Phillies offense that’s been streaky (capable of eruptions like Schwarber’s multi‑homer night and Harper’s cycle). The unknown Phillies starter (pNERD 0) is the key wild card: previews list Jesús Luzardo as probable in some outlets, but the provided data marks him TBD, so expect lineup/rotation theatre pregame. All told, this is a watchable game for fans who like well‑matched midrotation arms, a dangerous Nationals lineup and late‑inning bullpen intrigue.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Worth watching: a mismatch that promises tidy strikeout theater and defensive wizardry more than wild back-and-forth fireworks. The gNERD of 11.57 sits above the day's average and historical median, driven largely by a very strong Cubs tNERD and a clear pitcher contrast between Shota Imanaga and a struggling, rehab-ing Kodai Senga. Imanaga’s pNERD (6.52) is built on real whiff stuff and solid peripherals—he’s been missing bats and piling up K’s while the Cubs’ elite defensive runs buoy the team score—so expect quality swings and defensive plays. Senga’s pNERD (1.41) is hamstrung by poor xFIP and strike-rate components and he’s been shuffled through rehab starts after a rough early season, so the “will-he-or-won’t-he-find-it?” subplot reduces his watchability even though his unusually positive luck hints at some possible bounceback. Put another way: this is a pitcher-driven game where the Cubs’ above-average team profile (defense, decent offense, positive luck) makes it the safer, more watchable pick—good for fans who like sharp pitching and crisp defense, less so for those chasing offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

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Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Dylan Cease’s return from the injured list turns this into a “tune in for the arm” game even though both clubs’ team metrics suggest it won’t be an offensive carnival. The gNERD of 11.51 is above both today’s game average and the long-run mean, but that premium comes almost entirely from pitching: Dylan Cease’s pNERD (10.99) flags true swing-and-miss upside—heavy velocity and elite strikeout stuff after a recent IL stint—while Hunter Brown’s pNERD = 0 reflects limited available data because he’s just coming off the 60-day injured list and has only a handful of rehab starts to lean on. The low team NERDs (Astros 3.77, Blue Jays 3.26) and the supporting components (Toronto’s poor barrel rate and Houston’s bullpen weakness) argue against a back-and-forth slugfest, so expect a game shaped by how long Cease can last and whether a rusty Brown can find strikeout depth and command. If you want a single storyline—watch Cease’s swing-and-miss arsenal; if he’s sharp, this is compelling despite modest team-level fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres, 7:10p

Summary

Not a pure pitchers’ duel—this is a watchable middle-tier game where two competent but unspectacular starters hand the baton to bullpens and defense, which is where the real action is likely to be.

gNERD sits a touch above both today’s average and the historical mean (11.09), driven more by team upside than by the starting arms: San Diego’s tNERD (8.89) and Atlanta’s (7.21) reflect strong run prevention, especially fielding and unusually pricey, high-visibility broadcasts, even while the Padres’ offense has underperformed. Both clubs have bullpen components that stand out, so late-inning leverage moments are the biggest draw. Lineup/injury noise—Óscar (or Ronald) Acuña listed as questionable with a thumb issue and Jackson Merrill floated as day-to-day—could nudge things toward small-ball or bench usage.

Grant Holmes and Michael King register similar, modest pNERDs and middling xFIP-style profiles; neither looks like a big-strikeout ace on paper, which lowers true starting-pitching drama and raises the chance managers lean on their bullpens early.

If you prefer late-inning strategy, defensive plays, and bullpen chess to high-velocity fireworks, this one is worth a priority pick; otherwise it’s fine to flip to a flashier matchup.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers, 3:10p

Summary

Not must-see but worth a slot on the DVR if you like lineup vs. matchup chess: New York’s elite offense makes this a live bet for runs, while Gerrit Cole’s return from long-term surgery and Framber Valdez’s recent volatility add enough narrative spice.

The gNERD (10.71) sits just above the historical mean and today’s average, driven almost entirely by a Yankees tNERD (9.91) that screams offensive firepower—excellent batting runs, barrel rate and baserunning—against a Tigers club with a middling tNERD (4.26) hampered by poor defense but a very large positive “Luck” number (19), meaning Detroit may be due to score and perform better than its record suggests. The pitching side is less electrifying: both starters post xFIP- in the mid-100s (Cole ~105, Valdez ~104) so expect league-average underlying results; Cole’s higher velocity and slightly cleaner pNERD make him the steadier draw, though he’s only a few starts back from Tommy John.

Framber Valdez brings upside and a recent ejection/suspension episode to the storyline, and the Yankees are still managing notable injuries to top bats, which trims some star-power from the broadcast.

Bottom line: pick this if you want probable action from a loaded Yankees offense against a pitching matchup that’s inconsistent but capable of surprises; it’s interesting, not essential.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

New York Yankees

Detroit Tigers

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

Not a must-see but not a sleeper either: this game sits almost exactly at today's average gNERD, thanks to a very watchable Drew Rasmussen start offset by otherwise low team NERD profiles and some bullpen/defense warts. Rasmussen's season has been legitimately strong and is the engine of the game's watchability, while Michael Wacha is a steady veteran who brings competence more than fireworks.

The numbers tell the same story: gNERD 9.93 is essentially average for the day, with an above-average pNERD (6.60) driven by Rasmussen's excellent underlying metrics (his xFIP-/surface dominance is the single biggest positive). The Royals' tNERD (4.12) is middling but boosted by decent baserunning and fielding, while the Rays' tNERD (2.54) is low—hurt by weak barrel rates and team defense—so expect fewer sustained offensive fireworks. Both clubs show positive Luck components, suggesting some underperformance to date (more chances for correction), but the Royals' bullpen stands out as a clear negative. If you want pitcher-focused chess, tune in for Rasmussen's arsenal and Wacha's veteran sequencing; if you want a high-octane lineup duel, look elsewhere.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Tampa Bay Rays

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Watch if you like offense meeting a feel-bad lefty and a young, live-armed opponent who works quickly; this is a middling gNERD game where the Dodgers’ star-level lineup should provide most of the drama while the pitching matchup tempers the fireworks. The Dodgers’ team profile (tNERD 10.24) is the real hook: elite run creation, above-average barreling and defense give them a clear edge at the plate and in run-prevention, which explains why they carry the game’s watchability despite an otherwise ordinary card.

Eric Lauer’s pNERD (0.53) reflects why you shouldn’t expect dominance—an elevated xFIP- and low whiff/velocity profile match his recent struggles after being moved to Los Angeles. By contrast Zebby Matthews (pNERD 5.98) brings a near-average xFIP, above-average velocity for the matchup, youth and a notably quick pace—elements that tend to produce more action and shorter at-bats.

Put simply: if you want lineup-driven entertainment and the chance the Twins’ rookie arm makes things interesting, this is watchable; if you only tune for ace duels, it’s skippable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Minnesota Twins

Eric Lauer, Los Angeles Dodgers

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

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Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Middling on paper but with a few soft edges worth watching — gNERD 9.54 puts this near today’s average, driven more by Miami’s team quirks than by two headline-starting arms. Lineups and previews from major outlets list Kumar Rocker as the Rangers’ probable starter, so if Tyler Alexander truly draws the start (per your input) treat him as a lower-pNERD alternative; most public previews show Rocker on the bump for Texas.

The numbers: Miami’s tNERD (7.42) is buoyed by elite baserunning and a stout bullpen, while Texas’s tNERD (4.90) is depressed by weak barrel/contact rates even as an unusually high Luck (+22) hints they’ve been underperforming and could bounce back. Tyler Alexander’s pNERD (2.80) flags weak swinging-strike generation, low velocity and a slow pace; Tyler Phillips (3.96) profile shows better velo but a worse xFIP and a history of battling for a rotation spot — he’s been shaky in recent outings.

Bottom line: pick this game if you like bullpen action, baserunning plays, or the narrative of a high-Luck Rangers lineup trying to correct course; don’t expect a pitcher’s duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Miami Marlins

Tyler Alexander, Texas Rangers

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

Moderately watchable — Milwaukee’s stronger team metrics and a likely Brandon Woodruff return give this one spark, but a TBD opposing starter and Brady Singer’s bumpy 2026 make it a cautious pick.

The gNERD of 9.46 lands a hair below today’s game average and near the long-run middle, meaning this is worth streaming if you care about starter storylines more than guaranteed fireworks. Milwaukee’s tNERD (6.85) is the main attraction: a top-side batting run profile, younger roster, and an above-average bullpen point to consistent action late in games, though poor fielding offsets some of that upside. Cincinnati’s tNERD (4.25) is propped up by a high barrel rate — real power potential — but otherwise weak overall run creation, so expect boom-or-bust offense. Singer’s pNERD (2.82) reflects a season with below-average whiff and strike rates and an elevated xFIP-, so he’s hittable but works quickly (nice pace), which can shorten viewing windows. The Reds also may be missing explosive pieces on the IL, trimming some unpredictability. If Woodruff indeed returns from rehab it nudges this from “meh” to “tune-in for the narrative.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Not a marquee slugfest, but worth tuning into: St. Louis brings the more complete club and a comfortably useful Andre Pallante, while Merrill Kelly’s age and shaky underlying numbers make him a live target — that contrast creates low-drama intrigue. The gNERD (8.55) sits a touch below average for excitement, but the cards’ strong team NERD (7.93) — driven by above‑average offense and defense — versus Arizona’s weak run creation and excellent fielding sets up interesting matchup leverage that could tilt things toward the home side. Pallante profiles as the better arm on the bump this season (solid FIP and decent peripherals, a mid-90s average velocity and steady K/9), so he’s the one you’d expect to keep the game tidy; StatMuse shows his season FIP and strikeout numbers backing that up. Merrill Kelly is a veteran coming off an earlier IL stint this year and his underlying xFIP looks poor, so expect the Diamondbacks to need run support or a short leash. Add a Cardinals bullpen that’s been iffy and you have a watchable contest where one well‑timed swing or a shaky reliever inning decides it.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Not a must-watch marquee matchup — gNERD 8.52 sits below both the historical mean and today’s average — but it’s worth tuning in if you like watching a high-upside young arm try to impose himself against a thin Rockies lineup. Jake Bennett’s healthy pNERD (6.83) reflects a 25-year-old lefty with a solid early showing in Boston after a May call-up; he’s shown swing-and-miss and strike-rate profile that can create tense, bite-your-nails innings. Ryan Feltner (pNERD 2.77) is more of a roll-the-dice start: recently back from an ulnar-nerve IL stint with a short rehab outing in mid-June, his peripheral profile (xFIP-ish indicators and below-average strike rate) suggests contact and run-scoring are likelier than punchouts. Team-wise Boston’s tNERD (5.78) is buoyed by defense, bullpen depth and positive luck, while Colorado’s woeful tNERD (1.65) — poor batting and fielding components — lowers the ceiling for a truly compelling game despite Coors’ run-friendly backdrop. In short: watch for Bennett’s developmental ceiling and whether Feltner’s return is live; don’t expect a can’t-miss pitchers’ duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Watch if you like strikeout upside from the visitor and low drama otherwise: Kyle Bradish’s recent 12‑K outing makes him the only real source of excitement, while Sam Aldegheri is a league‑average‑to‑worse young arm who was just shuffled back up from Triple‑A.

This game’s gNERD (3.47) and sub‑par team NERDs reflect what you see in the box score: Baltimore supplies modest offense and decent broadcaster appeal, but shaky defense and only an OK bullpen; the Angels profile as feast‑or‑famine boppers (high barrel rate) with awful defense and a thin pen — not exactly appointment TV. Bradish’s pNERD (3.01) flags strikeout upside and solid velocity, though his peripherals are closer to league average, so he’s watchable mostly for K totals rather than long duel potential. Aldegheri’s negative pNERD (−1.31) and scary xFIP‑ suggest he could be knocked around; he’s a recent recall with mixed Triple‑A results. Given the matchup and the low team NERDs, expect a low‑event game where the main attraction is whether Bradish can turn his swing‑and‑miss night into another one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Los Angeles Angels

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Sam Aldegheri, Los Angeles Angels

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