MLB: What to watch on June 23, 2026

• 23 June 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

High watchability: a 13.74 gNERD flags this as one of the day’s better bets for action — Parker Messick’s excellent season and the White Sox’s above‑average team profile set up a clear pitcher‑vs‑lineup storyline. Messick’s 7.79 pNERD is the engine here: his strong underlying peripherals (xFIP‑style results, added cutter work and a quiet, efficient pace) and rookie‑still‑in‑his‑honeymoon polish have made him one of Cleveland’s more interesting young arms this year. Chicago’s 8.16 tNERD comes from real offense under the hood — elevated barrel tendencies, a younger-than-average roster and a payroll that still buys modest upside — so you should expect bat‑ball events even if Cleveland’s lineup looks soft on paper. Sean Burke (4.80 pNERD) is competent — live velocity, solid strike% but fewer whiffs — which keeps the game from being a one‑sided slugfest and makes late innings worth watching. In short: watch for Messick to challenge a swing‑for‑power White Sox order; the contest promises bite (strikeouts and barrels) rather than a slow, low‑stakes slog.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This is a tidy, above-average watch: a Yankees offense that scores like it means business facing a Tigers rotation that recently welcomed Casey Mize back — a matchup tilted toward the viewers who want lineup fireworks rather than a pitchers’ duel. The gNERD (11.99) is comfortably above today’s mean, driven by a Yankees tNERD of 9.82 — big contributions from batting runs, barrel rate and aggressive baserunning — while Detroit’s weaker tNERD (4.41) is offset by a big positive “Luck” number that suggests the Tigers may be due for better results. The pitching contrast is the real hook: Casey Mize (pNERD 5.92) grades better here — cleaner xFIP-, higher whiff and a notably quick pace — and is coming off a recent IL stint that he appears to have cleared to rejoin the rotation. Carlos Rodón (pNERD 3.83) is solid but shows thinner strike-rate profiles and fewer swing-and-miss edges, so he’s more of a “keep-pace” starter than a shutdown act. Bottom line: prioritize this for lineup-driven action and the chance Mize’s return shakes loose an unexpectedly competitive Tigers outing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

New York Yankees

Detroit Tigers

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Worth watching if you like watching a heavy favorite try to impose its will: the gNERD (11.92) is above the day's average and is driven by a Dodgers squad with elite tNERD (10.63) facing a low-Twins lineup (3.11), and a pitching contrast that reads predictable-on-paper but possibly spicy in practice. The Dodgers’ team components (big batting runs, high barrel rate, plus defense and bullpen marks) promise action, while the Twins’ weak fielding and bullpen marks make them vulnerable — so expect run-scoring chances whenever Los Angeles gets comfortable at the plate. Justin Wrobleski brings the more familiar profile: solid peripherals and a quick pace that inflates watchability (pNERD 5.10), and he’s been available after a hamstring scare earlier this month. Kendry Rojas’ pNERD is 0 because the data are thin; he’s a rookie/limited-track starter who was only just activated from the injured list, which raises the intrigue (and the uncertainty) of how his stuff plays in a big park. Betting markets favor the Dodgers decisively, so this is more “watch for offensive fireworks and matchup mismatches” than “pitching duel.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Minnesota Twins

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kendry Rojas, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This is a watchable, slightly messy pitcher's duel on paper: the Cubs' shiny team profile and Edward Cabrera's high pNERD suggest upside, while Kodai Senga's shaky return from injury makes him a low-ceiling gamble. Cabrera arrives as a recently acquired, high-velocity arm whose season has been interrupted by the IL (and who had a rough activation outing on June 5), so there’s real swing–for–the-fences potential if he regains form. Senga is making another comeback from a stint on the IL and allowed four runs in four innings in his first start back, which lines up with his weak peripherals and the low pNERD here; he looks like the more hittable, risk-on side of the matchup. The Cubs’ tNERD is driven by elite fielding and good batting runs (plus a noticeable positive luck component), while the Mets carry a worse lineup and an overworked bullpen—raw ingredients for a game where a few big swings and bullpen chaos will determine entertainment. Overall: prioritize it if you like volatile pitching returns and defensive intrigue; skip it if you want crisp, reliable ace outings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Good watch: a tidy mismatch of axes — a high-tNERD, bullpen-driven Padres lineup meeting a rookie-ish Braves starter — with enough uncertainty to keep the feed interesting. The game’s gNERD (11.72) sits above today’s mean and promises more action than a typical weekday getaway: San Diego’s team NERD is juiced by elite fielding, a top-rated bullpen and good broadcast interest while Atlanta brings strong barrel profile and a surprisingly useful ‘pen, so you’re likely to get crisp late-inning leverage even if the starting pitching doesn’t sparkle. JR Ritchie’s start is the main novelty — he’s a 22-year-old who turned heads in his April debut and was recalled in June, so his low-ish pNERD (2.36) mixes starter upside with real inexperience. The Padres hadn’t named a starter for this opener and project to lean on a dangerous relief corps (Mason Miller et al.), which raises the chance of a bullpen game or a multi-bullpen chess match — the exact kind of managerial tinkering that makes mediocre pitch-to-contact starts watchable. If you like bullpen velocity, defensive plays and managerial strategy, prioritize this one; if you want dominant starting staffs, not so much.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres

JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

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Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Watch this mostly for Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins’ youthful, high-energy profile — Alcantara’s strengths (high velocity, strong strike-rate) make the pitching matchup interesting even if Texas sends a low-information arm. The game’s gNERD (11.71) sits above today’s average and the Marlins’ team NERD (7.30) suggests more action than the Rangers’ quieter offense.

Alcantara’s 97.5 mph juice and above-average strike% make him the clear engine of watchability, and he’s been piling up strikeouts for Miami this year (he’s even closing in on franchise strikeout marks). Cal Quantrill’s pNERD is 0 because there’s little usable 2026 pitch data after he was recently added to Texas’ staff, which adds an element of unpredictability to the start. The Rangers’ roster noise — a rotation move and recent IL activity — leaves Texas more of a live underdog; that, combined with the Marlins’ younger, fleet-footed roster and slightly stronger bullpen profile, explains why the game’s tNERD tilt and moderately high pNERD make this a better-than-average broadcast to check in on.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Miami Marlins

Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Tune in for Jesús Luzardo — he’s the kind of starter who will make strikeouts and velocity highlights feel inevitable — and beware: Zack Littell has been prone to the long ball recently, which makes this a contest of tidy dominance vs. messy volatility. Luzardo’s sky-high pNERD (10.24) and component profile — strong xFIP-, above-average velocity, and a big positive luck swing — set the tone; MLB previews note he’s been especially stingy on the road this season, which explains why he’s the real draw here. The game’s gNERD of 11.65 sits above both the historic mean and today’s average, so this is objectively a better-than-average broadcast, driven more by pitching matchup and the Nationals’ lively team profile (tNERD 8.19) than by a big Phillies offense (tNERD 5.61). Littell’s negative pNERD (-0.74) reflects a poor xFIP- and low whiff rates, and recent outings where he surrendered multiple homers make him the likely source of fireworks. The Nationals’ bullpen has been an unstable storyline lately while the Phillies’ relief depth has shown flashes of reliability, which amplifies the late-inning stakes. Overall: watch for Luzardo’s swing-and-miss stuff and the matchup mismatch — entertaining if you like pitchers carving up lineups, nervy if you prefer tidy, low-leverage finales.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

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Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

If you want one clear reason to tune in: George Kirby’s arm is the show — his high pNERD and uptick in velocity make him the game’s biggest attraction, while Mitch Keller’s uneven recent form lowers the ceiling for a pitch duel. The gNERD of 11.11 sits a touch above both the historical median (10.10) and today's average (10.01), driven mostly by Kirby (pNERD 8.41) versus a Pirates lineup that rates better overall than Seattle’s (Pirates tNERD 6.53 vs Mariners 3.73). Kirby brings above-average velocity, a strong strike% component and sizable positive luck — the sort of starter who can produce punchouts and length that keep a game watchable. Mitch Keller’s profile is the opposite: middling pNERD (3.56), low swinging-strike work and a string of rough outings that suggest volatility rather than domination, so expect the contest to hinge on whether Pittsburgh’s offense can force mistakes early. Defensive and baserunning weaknesses on both sides temper the excitement, but this is still a pitcher-centered game worth prioritizing if you prefer watching a high-upside arm try to impose his will.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Pittsburgh Pirates

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Not a must-watch headline game, but worth tuning into if you like a veteran-versus-upstart pitching contrast and a Cardinals lineup that actually skews entertaining. Eduardo Rodríguez comes in as the veteran with a recent quality outing and a milestone-flavored gem in his pocket, while Kyle Leahy is the fresher arm whose role-shift to the rotation has produced flashes — that matchup supplies a clear narrative even if it isn’t a strikeout festival.

The numbers line up with that story: the Cardinals’ high tNERD (7.78) reflects a better balance of offense and defense, while Arizona’s lower tNERD (4.21) is propped up by above-average fielding; that suggests more offense and cleaner defensive plays on the St. Louis side. Rodriguez’s modest pNERD (2.34) and Leahy’s higher one (4.35) say Leahy is the more watchable hurler today on pure matchup terms, but both pitchers show low swinging-strike and strike rates, meaning this could tilt toward contact and situational baseball rather than pure swing-and-miss excitement. The gNERD of 9.34 sits a hair below the day’s average, so prioritize this game if you value the storyline and team play over fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

Low-key, watchable: a pitchers’-duel vibe driven more by Brandon Sproat’s high-velocity upside and Milwaukee’s reliable bullpen than by Cincinnati’s sputtering lineup. The gNERD (9.04) sits a touch below today’s average but the Brewers’ strong team profile (tNERD 6.80) — young roster, stout relief unit — raises the entertainment floor, while the Reds’ low tNERD (3.66) and weak overall offense temper expectations. Sproat (pNERD 5.37) offers the novelty: a 25-year-old with mid-90s heat and a recent trade/debut arc that makes him interesting to watch despite a rocky first big-league outing; his underlying peripherals and velocity suggest swings-and-misses are possible. Lodolo (pNERD 2.25) is the riskier half — bite-sized velocity gains, a high xFIP and uneven results so far — which means the game could either be a tidy duel or a quick slog if he doesn’t find command. The real hook is matchup contrast: Brewers bullpen depth versus a Reds relief group that’s struggled, and Cincinnati’s unusual barrel-heavy but low-run production profile that could flip a close game late.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

Not a must-watch fireworks show, but a tidy pitching contrast: an established frontline arm in Shane McClanahan against a lively, high-velocity rookie in Luinder Avila—good spotting for viewers who like pitcher battles rather than slugfests. The gNERD of 8.44 sits below today’s average, and the low team NERDs (Royals 3.91, Rays 2.32) flag a game that’s light on offensive fireworks, but the above-average pNERD (5.33) signals pitching interest instead. McClanahan is the safer bet—quality underlying numbers and role as Tampa Bay’s rotation anchor—so expect quality sequencing and chase rates from the Rays’ side. Avila’s a developing story: electric velocity and a recent strong outing suggest upside, plus the Royals have been stretching him out as a starter, which makes his start a live scouting report. Team details cut both ways—Kansas City’s bullpen has been a drag while Tampa’s defensive marks are surprisingly poor—so late-inning volatility is possible even if run-scoring looks muted. If you prefer clean pitchability and a peek at a prospect’s next step, tune in; if you want big offensive drama, this isn’t the top ticket.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Tampa Bay Rays

Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Not a must-watch slugfest: Sonny Gray’s comeback steadiness is the main draw, while Sean Sullivan is a very young unknown getting his early starts at hitter-friendly Coors — entertainments comes from process, not fireworks. The gNERD of 8.18 sits below the typical day’s slate, and the team split (Red Sox much higher than Rockies) suggests a game with more controlled pitching and defense than constant offense. Boston’s tNERD leans on excellent fielding and a solid bullpen while their offense has underperformed its metrics — a +15 luck figure that implies some offensive upside is due — so Gray could benefit from run support. Gray was recently reinstated from the IL and has stacked quality starts in his recent outings, which makes him the narrative anchor here. The Rockies’ starter, Sean Sullivan, had his contract selected recently and is essentially an experimental, low-data arm making early career starts (his Triple‑A numbers were shaky), so expect volatility at Coors. Overall: watch for Gray’s command and how a rookie lefty holds up in Coors; otherwise this is a lower-priority, analytically boring-but-slightly-interesting game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

Sean Sullivan, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, 1:07p

Summary

Not a must-watch: the gNERD (7.35) and both teams’ tNERDs sit well below typical-interest games, so expect a plodding pitcher’s duel with limited offensive fireworks. Peter Lambert is the clearest reason to tune in—his modest pNERD reflects a reliable-ish backend starter (64 IP, 58 K, 3.23 ERA this year) who’s coming off a recent outing where he left with a hand issue, so there’s intrigue about how sharp his stuff is today. Shane Bieber’s story is the other draw: he’s coming off the injured list with right-elbow inflammation and appears to be making his 2026 return, but the pNERD shows no usable sample for him yet, which increases uncertainty and the potential for either a short leash or something surprising. Both clubs’ team profiles suppress watchability: weak offensive indicators and mediocre barrels/baserunning contrast with Toronto’s good fielding and a beleaguered bullpen that could inject late-game drama. In short, this is a low-to-moderate watch: more interesting for injury/return monitoring and quiet pitcher-battle viewers than anyone chasing high-scoring excitement.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Low on the drama meter: a gNERD of 6.91 and feeble team NERDs make this one a grind more than a must-watch—still, Shane Baz’s recent arrival in Baltimore and the Angels’ young arm in the circle give it a story-driven hook. The metrics tell the tale: Baltimore’s team profile (tNERD 4.33) outclasses an Angels unit that grades poorly for defense and bullpen support (tNERD 1.13), so expect more tidy innings than back-and-forth fireworks. Shane Baz’s pNERD (3.35) reflects a real arm—not elite by these measures but legitimately interesting after his offseason trade and five‑year deal with Baltimore. Ryan Johnson’s pNERD of 0 flags a tiny sample and limited data; he’s a hard-to-predict young call-up who’s flashed strikeout stuff but struggled in early MLB looks, which raises the chance of volatility if he can’t miss bats consistently. Taken together, this is a low-priority broadcast for neutral fans—tune in if you want to see whether Baz validates his new contract or if Johnson’s upside produces an upset, otherwise pick a higher gNERD game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Los Angeles Angels

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Low-key, low-drama pitching matchup: this game’s gNERD of 5.29 sits at the bottom of today’s slate, and the numbers — and news — mostly agree that it’s not must-see TV. The A’s outscore the Giants on team NERD (5.45 vs. 3.44) thanks to above-average batting and an unusually large positive “luck” signal for both clubs (suggesting both have been underperforming their peripherals and could regress), but the pitching matchup is the real dampener: Civale (pNERD 0.43) and Ray (pNERD 1.25) bring middling xFIP profiles, low strike-generation components, and very little in the way of swing-and-miss, so you shouldn’t expect a high-K duel. Civale has just returned from a brief IL stint and suffered a rough outing in his comeback window, which blunts the intrigue around his start, while Ray’s season has been a classic one-good/one-bad pattern — serviceable but streaky. The upshot: pick this if you want quiet, contact-heavy baseball with some offensive upside from Oakland and the small drama of whether either pitcher can buck his peripherals — otherwise prioritize games with higher pNERD/tNERD signals.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Athletics

San Francisco Giants

Aaron Civale, Athletics

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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  MLB: What to watch on June 22, 2026