MLB: What to watch on June 24, 2026

• 24 June 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This is one of the day’s clearest “must-watch” games: a top-tier gNERD (17.12) driven by an elite Tarik Skubal start against a Yankees lineup that ranks very high in team offense and batted-ball authority. MLB lists Ryan Weathers and Tarik Skubal as the probable starters, so this is very much a starting-pitcher affair on paper.

Skubal’s monstrous pNERD (11.25) reflects the matchup risk: crisp velocity, a big negative xFIP- (65) and above-average swing‑and‑miss and strike rates in the component breakdown, and he’s just back from a carefully managed rehab that the Tigers completed in June — all signs he’s being handled like an ace coming off injury. Weathers (pNERD 8.40) won’t be a pushover; his stuff and recent role changes after joining New York give him the metrics to keep this competitive, and the Yankees’ tNERD (10.03) is fueled by elite batting runs, barrels and baserunning. Detroit’s big positive “Luck” suggests their surface results have been worse than their peripherals — another reason to expect action. Taken together, the high pitcher-NERD and Yankees’ offensive profile make this an analytically tasty, watchable duel rather than a slog.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

New York Yankees

Detroit Tigers

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Go back to top of page

Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins, 9:10a

Summary

This is a pitchers’-stuff showdown: Jacob deGrom’s elite swing-and-miss and big-velocity command make the game must-see for fans of dominant pitching, while Eury Pérez’s reinstatement and flamethrower profile add a genuine rookie-versus-veteran storyline. MLB’s preview notes Pérez is being activated off the IL for his first start since late May, while deGrom looks to bounce back after a rough outing — a contrast that gives this matchup real narrative juice.

The gNERD (15.10) reflects that: historically that’s well above typical games (it sits above most days’ offerings), driven by a high average pNERD (8.73) where deGrom’s 10.04 shines (strong xFIP-, big SwStr and 97+ mph velocity) and Pérez’s 7.42 lifts the interest because he’s a 23-year-old high-velo arm returning from the IL.

Team-wise Miami’s higher tNERD is owed to aggressive baserunning and a shaky but usable bullpen, while Texas brings more veteran suspension-of-disbelief around deGrom; expect strikeouts, hard contact battles, and a storyline hinge on whether Pérez’s heat plays or deGrom reclaims dominance.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Miami Marlins

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

High-leverage pitching duel: gNERD 14.47 (well above today’s average) makes this one of the day’s more watchable games — elite Dodgers offense and a pair of high-pNERD arms promise action. The Dodgers’ heavy lineup and league-leading power tilt the matchup toward run-scoring fireworks while Minnesota’s weaker team profile (low tNERD) suggests they’ll need big starts to stay close; Los Angeles’ roster and league-best homer total underline why the Dodgers are the more dangerous club. Shohei Ohtani is the main draw: his pNERD is strong (velocity and swinging-strike profile lift his score), but he’s coming off a couple of rough innings and worked through left-knee inflammation and a blister — this start is about whether he snaps back to form. Joe Ryan is a worthy foil (solid pNERD, plenty of strikeouts and an All‑Star case to make) after being scratched with an illness and then cleared to start, so Don’t expect an easy night for the Dodgers’ hitters. Matchup novelty (they’ve never faced as opposing starters) and the contrast—Dodgers’ top-tier team metrics vs. Twins’ pitching/fielding weaknesses—make this a priority pick for viewers who want a real pitcher-vs-lineup chess match.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Minnesota Twins

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Watch this for a true pitcher’s duel feel: two 26-year-old, big-velocity righties — Braxton Ashcraft’s recent innings-eating consistency vs. Bryan Woo’s strikeout bounceback — lift this game’s gNERD to 14.13, well above today’s average. Ashcraft looks particularly watchable on paper: a sub-80 xFIP- and heavy fastball that’s produced multiple starts of 6+ innings this month, giving Pittsburgh a reliable anchor. Woo’s 7 scoreless, nine-strikeout rebound on June 18 suggests he can turn a low Mariners tNERD (dragged down by baserunning and defense) into a quality start, and his velocity jump makes the matchup competitive. The box-score story will likely be Ashcraft trying to eat innings while the Pirates’ superior offense and baserunning (their higher tNERD components) press an otherwise soft Mariners lineup; if Ashcraft falters, expect good bullpen leverage and contact-driven action. The pitcher NERD split (10.39 vs 7.59) plus team contrasts mean this is a high-probability watch for tense, low-scoring baseball with strikeouts and quick innings rather than fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This is a quietly watchable pitching-versus-defense tilt: Sean Manaea’s above-average pNERD and big “luck” signal suggest he’s due for better results, while the Cubs’ excellent team defense and tidy overall tNERD set the stage for low-to-moderate scoring with the potential for sudden offense. The gNERD of 12.99 sits comfortably above today’s mean and the historical median, driven mostly by Chicago’s 9.26 tNERD (huge fielding runs and solid batting runs) and Manaea’s 6.27 pNERD; the Cubs’ positive team “luck” (+17) implies they’ve been underperforming underlying metrics and could swing things in their favor. Manaea has shown encouraging recent work for the Mets and looks like the staff’s most reliable matchup arm right now. The Mets, meanwhile, carry a middling tNERD driven by an underwhelming offense but an effective bullpen that the club has leaned on amid rotation injuries and openers. The Cubs haven’t firmly announced a starter here (some outlets list Javier Assad as the likely option), which keeps the game’s projection fuzzy and raises the entertainment ceiling if Chicago sends an experienced arm. Overall: good for viewers who like tidy pitching, crisp defense, and the chance of an explosive inning rather than a marquee slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

Worth switching to if you like controlled chaos: a steady Martín Pérez meets a bullpen-and-defense-heavy Padres team while JP Sears arrives as a wild-card starter with effectively no NERD history. Pérez’s recent form — four wins in his last few turns and a low sub-3.00 ERA over that stretch — gives the Braves’ half of this matchup credibility, and his pNERD (4.61) is driven by a solid xFIP- and an efficient pace that suggests he can keep a cleareyed game going.

The Padres’ sky-high tNERD (9.05) comes mostly from elite fielding and a leaky-but-volatile bullpen plus strong local broadcaster interest, which makes their games feel lively even when the offense hasn’t clicked. JP Sears shows pNERD = 0 here because there’s no usable statistical profile for this matchup (he was recently recalled to fill an injured Giolito spot), which raises the variance — unknown starters often make for watchable swings in strategy and outcome.

With a gNERD of 12.80 (above today’s mean and the historical 75th percentile), this is an above-average watch: expect tidy innings from Pérez, bench-to-bullpen fireworks, and the kind of unpredictability that keeps a late-night audience entertained.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 10:10a

Summary

This has real teeth: Nolan McLean’s high-octane profile makes this a must-see matchup for anyone who likes strikeouts and quality pitching, while the Cubs’ stout defense and surprisingly high team NERD promise enough action even if Assad is just “serviceable.” McLean’s strong 2026 form — including a nine-strikeout outing last week — explains his hefty pNERD (8.36) and the game’s above-average gNERD (12.64). Javier Assad (pNERD 2.20) is more of a replacement-piece starter whose stuff and swinging-strike numbers are modest, but he’s been useful recently, turning in a 6‑scoreless‑inning outing that suggests he can keep this competitive for a few frames. The Cubs are playing through a rash of injuries — which is why Assad is getting turns — but their elite fielding and positive “luck” component argue for offensive bounce-backs, boosting watchability. If you want tidy analytics: McLean’s sub-100 xFIP- and above-average velo make him the real draw; everything else is texture that could produce a close, watchable game rather than a snooze.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Worth tuning in for a rookie moment and some matchup uncertainty: Mitch Bratt’s MLB debut against a still-volatile Matthew Liberatore gives this middling gNERD a real watchable edge. The 11.26 gNERD sits near today’s mean, and the game’s drama is driven less by steady analytics than by storylines—Bratt is a top prospect making his big-league debut (and has just returned from a short IL stint after being part of the Merrill Kelly trade), so his pNERD of 0.00 merely flags the novelty rather than a lack of intrigue. Liberatore’s pNERD (5.64) and surface peripherals (roughly league-average xFIP-) pair with a very large positive “luck” number, suggesting he’s been pitching below his tie‑to‑skill measures and could be due for better outcomes; that makes his start more interesting than his ERA implies. Team-wise the Cardinals’ higher tNERD is driven by younger, cost-controlled production and decent defense, while Arizona’s offense lags even if the D-backs’ defense is strong—so expect a contest that’s part prospect spectacle, part bullpen/bench chess.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Go back to top of page

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Not must-see TV, but quietly worth your attention: Aaron Nola’s stronger pNERD and underlying metrics make this a pitchers-versus-contact game where one deep Nola outing or a few loud Nationals swings could tilt things quickly. The gNERD of 11.17 sits a hair below today’s average slate but above the historical mean, so this is a mid-tier watch with real micro-drama. Aaron Nola (pNERD 5.16) brings a respectable xFIP- (~91) and huge positive luck — he’s been a little unlucky and hasn’t pushed past the fifth in his June turns, so there’s upside if he finds the extra inning or two. Miles Mikolas (pNERD 2.96) profiles worse: a higher xFIP-, very low whiff rate and an ERA that has creeped up this season, which makes him the weaker half of the matchup and increases the chance of quick, contact-heavy innings. The Nationals’ team NERD (8.32) is driven by offense and baserunning, so expect active at-bats and potential rally chances against Mikolas; the Phillies’ tNERD is lower, so this is more about one pitcher’s bounce-back than a tactical pitchers’ duel. Lineups and probables matchups are posted on the official day-of pages.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

Go back to top of page

Athletics @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Not the flashiest matchup, but worth a look for one big reason: rookie lefty Gage Jump has real swing-and-miss stuff, while Tyler Mahle’s return from the IL leaves room for volatility — that contrast gives this otherwise middling gNERD (9.79) some teeth. Jump’s call-up and early results mark him as a legitimate prospect with a mid-90s heater and strong K upside, so his pNERD (6.72) is the main attraction; he’s already turned heads in his MLB debut and minor‑league work this year. Mahle’s on-ramp from injury makes him less reliable (pNERD 4.37), and the Giants’ announced plan had him back in the rotation for this date — which explains both the intrigue and the caution. Team-wise the A’s bring slightly more offensive/age upside (tNERD 5.03) while San Francisco rates lower (3.46); both clubs show positive luck numbers, suggesting underlying performance could improve, so expect the scoreboard to be less predictable than the lowish gNERD implies. In short: watch for Jump’s stuff and Mahle’s health — that duel makes the game worth DVR-ing at minimum.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Athletics

San Francisco Giants

Gage Jump, Athletics

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

Go back to top of page

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Not a marquee showdown — the gNERD (9.72) sits below both today’s game average and the historical median — but there’s enough contrast here to make a dull-looking game worth a quick watch. The White Sox bring the more entertaining team profile (higher tNERD and a better barrel rate), while the Guardians’ offense looks blunt and young, which explains Cleveland’s lower team NERD despite solid defense and cheap, lively roster construction. Erick Fedde is a low-whiff, contact-heavy veteran whose season numbers have been middling (2–6, 4.46) and whose underlying metrics here drag the pNERD down; his 0.78 pNERD reflects poor swing-and-miss and strike rates. Tanner Bibee’s 3.97 pNERD and recent strong starts (including a multi-start stretch with eight K’s) suggest he’s the more watchable arm if you like strikeout upside and length. The larger storyline is a real AL Central scrap — these clubs are neck-and-neck atop the division — and Chicago’s surprising turnaround (plus some roster injuries elsewhere) adds stakes. Bottom line: not a “must-see,” but intriguing if you want to watch whether Bibee’s stuff can baffle a lively White Sox lineup.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

Not a showstopper, but worth a look if you like tidy starting pitching: the gNERD of 9.59 is below today's average, yet both starters carry above-average pNERD scores that promise a pitch-to-contact chess match rather than a slugfest. Noah Cameron and Griffin Jax each rate in the mid‑6s for pNERD, with Jax’s uptempo velo and swing‑and‑miss profile and Cameron’s surprising debut history providing the day’s best micro‑storylines.

The teams drag the score down: a combined tNERD of 3.14 reflects a thin offensive profile and roster instability — KC’s bullpen is a clear liability and injuries have thinned their depth — while Tampa Bay’s low barrel rate and defensive run numbers blunt long‑ball excitement.

Practical takeaway: tune in for starter‑focused baseball and a possible low‑scoring duel (both pitchers sit above today’s pitcher‑NERD average), but don’t expect late‑inning fireworks given KC’s shaky relief corps and the Rays’ limited batted‑ball damage potential.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Tampa Bay Rays

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

Go back to top of page

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

This is a mildly watchable game because a reliable young Brewers starter and a Reds pitcher shaking off a recent IL stint set up a clear favorite-versus-underdog pitching matchup — interesting enough for early innings, less so for a tight game throughout. The gNERD (9.57) sits below today’s game average and historical median, which matches the feel: Milwaukee’s stronger tNERD (6.89) and lineup (one of MLB’s higher-scoring offenses) push this toward a Brewers-leaning contest, while Cincinnati’s low tNERD (3.30) and negative batting runs make big comebacks unlikely. Shane Drohan (pNERD 6.92) brings the better underlying profile — solid xFIP- and strike metrics and a fresh role for Milwaukee after being acquired and making his 2026 debut. Rhett Lowder (pNERD 2.02) is younger and coming off a shoulder issue and a recent roster return, which helps explain the low pNERD and upside risk. If you care about predictable entertainment, watch the early innings for Drohan’s command versus Lowder’s recovery; if you want high-variance drama, this game doesn’t promise much.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

Watch if you like pitching duels with subtle storylines; don’t if you need fireworks — the numbers and context point to a quieter, pitcher-driven game. Ranger Suárez is the cleaner bet on paper (strong xFIP-ish metrics and a higher pNERD), while Kyle Freeland’s surface results look worse but carry a big positive “luck” signal that suggests his peripherals aren’t as bad as his ERA indicates — meaning this could either be a snoozer or a minor redemption arc depending on how the sequencing falls. Boston’s team profile lifts the watchability a bit: solid fielding and bullpen marks plus pronounced team luck offset a surprisingly weak Boston offense, whereas Colorado’s tNERD is very low, driven by poor batting and limited batted-ball quality. The pitching matchup (Suárez vs. Freeland) is listed in the probable pitchers feed and frames the game as a matchup of better underlying stuff against a veteran with elevated variance. Injuries and roster noise (Boston has had recent IL moves) slightly thin the narrative, so this is best for viewers who prefer process and matchup intrigue over raw scoring.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Not a can’t-miss pitching duel — more of a low-key intrigue piece: two middling staffs and midrange starters with a few storylines that could liven things up. Mike Burrows and Trey Yesavage are neither Cy Young threats nor automatic snooze buttons; the game’s gNERD (8.89) sits below today’s slate average, and both clubs’ tNERD numbers are modest, so expect more organizational narratives than fireworks. Burrows brings the headline: he was briefly moved to the bullpen as Houston tried to fix delivery issues and limit damage, so his noticeable positive “luck” suggests some regression is possible back toward competence — that makes him worth watching for adjustments rather than dominance. Yesavage is the younger, higher-variance arm — a 22-year-old prospect returning from the IL with swing-and-miss upside but likely pitch-count limits, which creates a genuine small-bet watch: good for bettors and fans who like to see young arms tested. Toronto’s bullpen usage and recent extra-inning drama in the series add late-game intrigue, while Houston’s recent offensive outburst means the game could drift from predictable to fun if either starter falters.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Mike Burrows, Houston Astros

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

Not a marquee matchup — this is the day’s lowest gNERD — but José Soriano’s fastball/slider mix makes it worth a glance if you like watching overpowering stuff; otherwise the lack of team juice keeps it a low-priority watch. The composite tells the story: a meager average tNERD (2.60) driven by an alarmingly low Angels team score and only middling Orioles offense, so the game lacks lineup-driven excitement even though Soriano (pNERD 7.14) can shorten it with high heat and swing-and-miss stuff. Soriano has flashed mid-to-upper-90s velocity and strong strikeout outings this season, giving the Angels a real chance to control the game. Trey Gibson (pNERD 3.43) profiles as a younger, lower-miss-bats arm whose recent big-strikeout outing and early-career debut show upside but also inconsistency; he’s less likely to generate sustained dominance. Bottom line: for pure stuff-watchers this is mildly appealing because of Soriano; for anyone chasing a back-and-forth, high-scoring or bullpen-heavy spectacle, the low team metrics and overall gNERD argue you can find more entertaining games.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Los Angeles Angels

Trey Gibson, Baltimore Orioles

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on June 23, 2026
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on June 25, 2026