MLB: What to watch on June 25, 2026

• 25 June 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Watch this if you like two very different pitchers dictating the drama: a high-octane, strikeout-happy Yankees ace versus a young Red Sox lefty who’s flashed big-outing upside. Cam Schlittler’s elite stuff and the Yankees’ thumping offense lift this one into must-see territory, while Boston’s defense and luck story add the caveats.

Schlittler’s pNERD (10.50) matches his recent run of dominance — he’s been piling up strikeouts and turning heads as an early AL breakout — and the underlying components (97.7 mph velocity, low xFIP-, strong strike%) point to repeatable dominance rather than fluke performance. The Red Sox starter Connelly Early (pNERD 4.04) is younger and more boom-or-bust, though he’s shown a high-K ceiling in recent starts and was given an early rotation role this year.

Team-wise the Yankees’ tNERD (10.27) is driven by elite barrel rate and batting runs, while Boston’s defensive metrics and a very large positive “luck” figure suggest their offense has underperformed its peripherals — a potential replay factor late. Overall gNERD 15.58 sits well above typical games today and historically, so expect a watchable clash with a clear pitcher-versus-lineup narrative.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

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Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Mostly watch this: a top-of-the-day gNERD (15.34) driven by Matthew Boyd’s high pNERD and a sturdy Cubs profile, with enough storyline—Boyd’s return from the IL and the Mets’ banged-up lineup—to make the innings matter. Matthew Boyd grades out as the real draw (pNERD 10.57): underlying peripherals (excellent xFIP-) and a big “unlucky” signal suggest his surface results should improve if his stuff looks right after coming off the IL. Freddy Peralta is a competent, middling foil (pNERD 5.11; roughly league-average xFIP-), so this shapes up as a pitcher-advantage tilt for the Cubs rather than a duel. The Cubs’ team profile (tNERD 9.34) is boosted by elite fielding and strong local interest; the Mets’ lineup has been whittled by injuries and uncertainty around Juan Soto, which lowers the counterweight to Boyd’s start. Expect an outing where Boyd’s pitch profile and the Cubs’ defense create high-leverage sequences worth watching, while Peralta’s volatility keeps some late-inning drama possible.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Watch if you like a bona fide ace on the bump and a home lineup that swings for contact: Cristopher Sánchez is the day's marquee attraction, and Washington's team profile promises run creation even if their late-inning relief is a worry. Sánchez has been historically dominant this season (a long scoreless run and top-tier peripheral metrics) but also had a rough outing recently, so the matchup carries real upside and a little volatility.

The gNERD of 14.61 is high for the day because Sánchez posts an elite pNERD (10.13) driven by a spectacular xFIP- and strong strike (and swinging‑strike) signals, while Cade Cavalli’s middling pNERD (5.23) and innings/pace concerns lower the pure pitching intrigue; Cavalli has battled a short illness but returned to steady, high‑velocity work.

Team-wise the Nationals’ tNERD (8.16) reflects above‑average contact/barrel and baserunning that should make this game lively, even as their bullpen component is a real negative that could hand drama to late innings; the Phillies bring less offence but an improving bullpen narrative.

In short: high watchability mainly for Sánchez’s dominance-versus-variance and a Nationals lineup that can turn a tidy start into a pitched battle — expect quality at-bats, a swing-for-contact contrast, and late-inning uncertainty.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

Watch if you like watching an ace in rhythm take on a high-variance, hard-throwing youngster — Bryce Miller’s stuff makes this an above-average pitching duel on paper, and Pittsburgh’s offense gives the matchup a real shot at fireworks.

The gNERD (12.22) is meaningfully above today’s mean and sits a tick over the historical 75th percentile, driven mostly by a sky-high pNERD average (7.12) — Miller’s 9.73 pNERD is the marquee ingredient: elite xFIP-, strong strike rates, and mid-90s velocity suggest swing-and-miss dominance and a low-contact outing is likely.

Bubba Chandler (pNERD 4.50) supplies the velocity and youth (23) that can produce strikeouts but also hard contact and a high xFIP-, so expect innings that are streaky rather than steady.

Team-side, Pittsburgh’s higher tNERD (6.40) — helped by big run creation and baserunning — increases the chance this becomes an eventful game, while Seattle’s lower tNERD and defensive/ baserunning deficits make them more error-prone and the contest less predictable. Recent form notes (Pittsburgh’s blowout win this series) add to the intrigue.

Overall: prioritize this one if you value elite repertoire vs. volatile heat and the prospect of the Pirates’ offense forcing traffic; it’s not a can’t-miss classic, but it’s comfortably worth your attention.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

If you want tidy, pitcher-first baseball with a hint of a storyline, this is a polite yes; if you want fireworks, probably not. MacKenzie Gore and Kevin Gausman front a matchup where the pitchers — both middling-to-better pNERD scores — are the attraction, and the teams’ tNERD profiles suggest a low-volatility game with a possible Rangers comeback because of an unusually large “luck” deficit on their sheet. Gore arrived in Texas via a January 2026 deal and has been working to settle into the Rangers’ rotation; Gausman is the dependable veteran the Blue Jays hand the ball to in big spots. The starters’ raw lines and usage are confirmed on the matchup page. The gNERD of 9.94 sits just below historical and today’s averages, meaning this is more of a competent chess match than a must-see. The Rangers’ high Luck component argues they’ve been underperforming their indicators and could spike offensively, while Gausman’s stronger underlying metrics tilt this toward low-scoring, high-command innings. Expect strategic at-bats, not barnburners.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

Not the most must-see matchup on paper — the gNERD sits a hair under today’s average — but Landen Roupp’s strong underlying stuff makes this a quietly watchable pitcher’s duel. Roupp’s high pNERD (7.48) is driven by below-average xFIP- and reliably effective outings this season, and he’s shown the kind of swing-and-miss and contact suppression that makes him the primary attraction; he’s 5–7 with a solid underlying run prevention profile this year. Jeffrey Springs (pNERD 3.30) is the opposite: older, lower velocity and with less enticing strikeout upside, so the game’s air of tension depends on whether he can strand rallies rather than dominate. Springs’ 2026 line has been bumpy, which lowers the ceiling for excitement. The teams themselves aren’t fireworks — both have modest tNERDs and complementary strengths and weaknesses (Oakland’s better batted-ball profile vs. San Francisco’s stronger bullpen and broadcast draw), and both carry positive “luck” marks that suggest performances may normalize. In short: tune in for Roupp and a tidy, strategy-first game; don’t expect a slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Athletics

San Francisco Giants

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Low-to-moderate watchability: St. Louis’ lineup and clearer pitching story make this a safer bet for viewers than Arizona’s messy starter matchup, but it lacks the high-end strikeout fireworks that make a game must-see. Zac Gallen and Michael McGreevy are both below today’s pitcher-nerd mean, so you shouldn’t expect a duel of flamethrowers—McGreevy has been the steadier option while Gallen has struggled with a high ERA this season, which has previews tilting toward the Cardinals. The gNERD (9.28) sits below today’s average and the historical median, driven by a clear tNERD split: St. Louis’ younger, more productive club lifts the game while Arizona’s weak batted-ball profile and low batting runs drag it down. Gallen’s very positive “luck” number in the profile suggests he’s underperforming his peripherals and could rebound, but his poor swinging-strike and xFIP signals limit upside; McGreevy looks like a contact/off-speed recipe that keeps things tidy. A recent rookie storyline in St. Louis adds color, and the market/projections have St. Louis favored—so watch if you want lineup leverage or a potential Gallen bounce-back, otherwise this is a pass for strikeout-hungry viewers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This is a low-sizzle, watch-if-you’re-curious game: two starters with storylines but few signals of long, compelling drama — Imai’s recent 11‑K bounceback and Melton’s rookie-return steadiness give it some color, but the overall gNERD (8.66) sits below today’s slate and the historical median. MLB previews peg Imai and Melton as the probables, and both have short, recent narratives worth following: Imai struck out 11 in a quality start recently after a rough outing, and Melton has been an effective young arm since returning from the IL.

The numbers explain the lukewarm score. Team NERDs are modest: Houston’s barrel rate and batting runs are the better half of this matchup but their baserunning and bullpen components subtract interest, while Detroit’s strong barrel rate masks an anemic batting runs and very poor fielding; the Tigers’ positive “luck” suggests some underlying improvement is possible. Pitcher NERDs are middling: Imai’s high luck and decent velocity are offset by poor strike% and a slow pace, whereas Melton’s youth, above‑average velocity and quick pace make him watchable even if his xFIP‑based profile looks shakier.

Bottom line: watch for Imai’s swing‑and‑miss spike and Melton’s pace/velocity duel, but don’t expect a can’t‑miss TV classic — this is a low‑tier pick from a watchability perspective.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 9:10a

Summary

Low NERD, low drama — this is the kind of pitcher’s duel that promises more innings than action: gNERD sits at 7.35 (well below today’s average), driven by two below-average tNERDs and modest pNERDs. Seth Lugo’s start brings the only real storyline — he’s just back after the scary 106.6-mph comebacker that sent him to the concussion list, so there’s narrative interest if you care about comeback arcs, but his peripherals suggest fewer swing‑and‑misss moments than you'd like. Casey Legumina is essentially a bullpen‑to‑opener option the Rays have slotted as the “starter,” which depresses big‑inning intrigue and leans toward matchup relief work rather than a dominant outing. The team profiles reinforce the snooze: KC’s offense is light and its bullpen profile drags the tNERD up only slightly, while Tampa Bay’s barrel rate and defense components are unimpressive. With pNERDs of 3.66 (Lugo) and 4.31 (Legumina) and a low overall tNERD split, expect a tidy, efficiency‑first game — fine if you like pitching depth and a comeback storyline, avoid if you want loud offense or late‑inning fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Tampa Bay Rays

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Casey Legumina, Tampa Bay Rays

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  MLB: What to watch on June 24, 2026