MLB: What to watch on June 26, 2026

• 26 June 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, 6:45p

Summary

Big-name arms and top-end team talent collide — this is a pitching-first showcase where Roki Sasaki’s juice and Walker Buehler’s modest revival make the box score worth checking. The gNERD (17.23) is near the top of today’s slate because both clubs bring loud team metrics (Dodgers tNERD 10.78; Padres 9.09) and a true contrast in pitcher profiles: Sasaki’s flashy velocity and young-upside profile (pNERD 9.00, velocity and age both lift his score, plus a big positive luck number suggesting he’s due to outpitch results) versus Buehler’s steadier, more process-driven outing (pNERD 5.60, solid xFIP- and improving 2026 form). The Dodgers’ offense and collection of high-impact batted-ball figures promise the kind of at-bats that let a high-variance starter earn highlight-reel strikeouts, while the Padres’ strong bullpen and home-broadcast draw keep late innings interesting. Sasaki’s recent uptick and adjustment talk have been written about in national outlets, and Buehler’s 2026 rebound has been noted by the Padres’ beat — both storylines add context that the NERD math already likes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:45p

Summary

Watch for Misiorowski — not because this is a toss-up, but because the Brewers’ flamethrower is the single most compelling reason to tune in; his season has been historically dominant and he profiles as a genuine strikeout-or-bust outing. The gNERD of 16.40 (well above the historic 95th percentile of ~14.8 and near today's top games) correctly flags a mismatch: Jacob Misiorowski’s ultra-high velocity and elite underlying numbers make him a live arm to see, including a recent 15‑K complete-game one‑hitter and jaw-dropping strikeout totals this season.

Colin Rea is the narrative counterpoint: a veteran with a low pNERD who’s been inconsistent this year, which skews the matchup toward volatility rather than a classic duel. The Cubs’ rotation depth is thinner after recent IL moves, adding stakes to every Rea inning.

Team-wise, Chicago’s high tNERD leans on elite fielding and broadcast draw, while Milwaukee’s lineup and the big-bopper Misiorowski create a contrast that promises either a dominant shut‑down or a short, thrilling blowout — in other words, high watchability because one arm can single-handedly decide the spectacle.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

High-watchability: this is an offense-vs-prospect throwdown — the Yankees’ thunderous lineup (tNERD 10.46) meets a young, hard-throwing Payton Tolle whose recent debut flashed genuine swing-and-miss upside, so expect barrels and strikeouts in equal measure.

The gNERD of 14.99 is well above both the historical mean (10.11) and today’s average (10.77), driven mainly by New York’s top-tier batting runs and barrel rate and by Tolle’s elevated pNERD (8.12); Boston’s strong fielding and unusually positive luck (they’ve underperformed their peripherals) add a wrinkle where defense and regression could matter late. Newcomer Tolle is young, has shown a high strike% and velocity spike in recent looks and even punched out big leaguers in his debut, so he’s the main source of volatility; Will Warren is the steadier but less overpowering counter (pNERD 5.05) with a solid xFIP- that suggests length and fewer hairy innings. Put simply: if you like high-leverage at-bats, chase/whiff outcomes, and a matchup where the outcome can flip on a few long balls or punchouts, this one deserves a high priority.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

This one’s worth tuning into if you like watching a talented young arm try to bully a good-but-inconsistent rotation veteran — the gNERD of 12.64 lands well above today’s mean and in the upper third historically, driven mostly by Andrew Álvarez’s gleaming pNERD. The lineup cards show Álvarez and Trevor Rogers as the probables, with Álvarez fresh off a recent recall and Rogers the Orioles’ rotation mainstay who’s battled health and inconsistency this season. Álvarez’s pNERD (9.23) is buoyed by an excellent xFIP- (65) and a sizable positive luck component, marking him as the clear fun variable: swing-and-miss and ground-ball tendencies that can keep innings short and tense. Rogers’s lower pNERD (3.95) and elevated xFIP- (115) suggest he’s more hittable, though he’s shown signs of better June form since returning from an earlier IL stint. Team-wise, the Nationals’ higher tNERD reflects younger, more aggressive baserunning and above-average offense, while Baltimore’s weaker fielding and middling tNERD point to a matchup that should produce competitive at-bats and high-leverage bullpen work — in short, watchable if you like pitcher-versus-lineup contrasts and a likely tense late-inning finish.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Baltimore Orioles

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

Watchable: Max Meyer is in true-starter form and should force a pitcher’s duel, while a contact-oriented Michael McGreevy and two above-average team NERD profiles mean this won’t be a slog — it should be tense and efficient rather than a slugfest.

The 12.49 gNERD is driven by both teams’ tidy tNERD marks (MIA 7.69, STL 7.50) and Meyer’s relatively high pNERD (6.09), which matches what the box scores show: Meyer’s been excellent this season and especially in June (multiple strong starts, lots of Ks). McGreevy (pNERD 3.71) profiles as the quieter counterpunch — decent FIP/xFIP, fewer whiffs — so expect contact that rewards St. Louis’ strong run prevention and defense rather than volatile strikeout-driven innings.

Team details add spice: Miami’s baserunning and younger roster tilt toward activity on the bases, while St. Louis’ above-average on-base and fielding will keep rallies short and consequential; neither bullpen strength nor gargantuan power is likely to make this a fireworks show. Given the matchup and the numbers, pick this one if you want a competitive, pitcher-led game with small-ball wrinkles rather than an all-out homer derby.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This is a quietly watchable game — Zack Wheeler’s strong arm and a pair of competent-but-not-exciting lineups give it higher-than-average intrigue, even though the Mets haven’t named a starter yet. The 11.88 gNERD sits a touch above today’s slate average, driven mostly by Wheeler’s above-average pNERD (7.08) and middling-but-solid team NERDs for both clubs.

Wheeler is confirmed to take the ball for Philadelphia (he’s pitching against his old team), and he’s been excellent this season, so expect a deep, strikeout-tilting outing that lifts watchability on its own. The Mets’ opposing starter was still listed as TBD in morning previews, which lowers predictability and adds a little late-breaking intrigue — or anxiety, depending on your tolerance for unknowns. Both bullpens register as heavier-than-average contributors in the tNERD components, meaning late-inning leverage and matchup juggling could spice things up even if the offense is uneven. The Phillies also have lineup movement (Kyle Schwarber available), which is another live element to watch.

Bottom line: pick this if you like strong starting pitching with a noisy bullpen finish; skip it if you want high-octane offense from both sides.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Worth tuning in for Paul Skenes — his ceiling is the show here — but don’t expect a wild back-and-forth: elite strikeout stuff versus a Reds lineup that’s been uneven. Skenes pairs a sub-80 xFIP- and big velocity with recent high-strikeout outings, so he’s the primary engine of watchability and a legitimate threat to shorten the game if he’s on. Andrew Abbott’s pNERD is modest and his arsenal produces less swing-and-miss, though he’s coming off a solid start and can keep this competitive if he limits contact. The Pirates’ team profile — better offensive production, strong baserunning but poor defense — raises the chance of small, exciting offensive sparks even if sloppy fielding keeps things uneven. Overall the gNERD (11.30) sits a touch above today’s average, driven almost entirely by Skenes’ starter profile (pNERD 10.45) and Pittsburgh’s higher tNERD; expect a pitcher-dominant game with the occasional tense moment rather than a full-on slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Not must-see television, but not a yawner either: the game’s gNERD (10.76) sits almost exactly at today’s mean and near the historical median, so expect middling excitement unless the starters change the calculus. With no probable pitchers listed (both pNERD = 0), the matchup’s watchability depends more on team textures than on an obvious pitching duel; MLB’s gameday preview still shows the opposing starter slot as pending. The White Sox supply the entertainment upside — a younger, cheaper roster that’s been driving harder contact and higher barrel rates this season, which helps explain their strong tNERD relative to Kansas City. The Royals are the risk factor: a weak offense and a bullpen that’s been a recurring disaster in June, which lowers the chance of a clean, competitive finish. Add a lineup question for Kansas City — Vinnie Pasquantino’s hamate issue has been a recent storyline — and you’ve got a game where the White Sox profile as the more fun watch, while the Royals bring volatility (mostly in the ’oh no, the bullpen’ sense).

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

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Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

Luis Castillo is the headline here — his higher pNERD and huge positive “luck” component suggest he’s due to outpitch his surface numbers, which makes this worth tuning into; otherwise this is a middling game driven more by Cleveland’s slightly stronger team profile than by fireworks. The gNERD (9.75) sits a hair below today’s slate average and around the historical median, so expect a solid but not must-watch contest; Cleveland’s tNERD (6.09) outpaces Seattle’s light 3.79 mainly because of the Guardians’ cheap-but-young roster construction and rotation depth. Castillo’s edge is real: he posts the higher pNERD (5.39), plus a big positive Luck signal in the input that implies regression toward better results, while Cantillo (4.23) has been a reliable home starter for Cleveland and should be able to limit damage early. Seattle’s glaring defensive shortfalls and weak baserunning hurt its tNERD and lower the game’s upside for late-inning chaos, and the Mariners’ rotation management chatter this month makes their usage less predictable. Recent roster moves (Seattle reactivated key pieces this week) slightly soften their outlook but don’t erase the defensive hole. Overall: watch for Castillo to set the tone and for Cantillo’s home effectiveness to keep this compact and pitcher-focused rather than a slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Seattle Mariners

Cleveland Guardians

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

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Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Not must-see television, but the game has a clear storyline: Nathan Eovaldi’s above-average stuff and recent bounce-back make this a pitcher-driven watch, while Patrick Corbin’s veteran depth role suggests a low swing‑and‑miss counterpoint.

Eovaldi’s strong pNERD (7.94) is driven by surprisingly good swinging‑strike and strike rates and a favorable xFIP-, plus a generous luck component—so he’s the real reason to tune in if you like strikeouts and chase‑inducing breaking stuff. He was scratched with knee soreness earlier in the week but returned to the rotation after a solid outing where he fanned six, so there’s a little health watch here but nothing alarming.

Corbin’s low pNERD (1.97) reflects limited swing‑and‑miss and an elevated xFIP-, which makes him more of an innings eater than a strikeout artist; he’s a one‑year depth signing the Blue Jays have leaned on during rotation injuries.

Team context pushes this toward a subdued, analytical watch: Texas’s tNERD (5.53) benefits from pronounced luck and bullpen value, while Toronto’s weaker offense and better defense (tNERD 3.41) point to a low‑scoring, pitcher‑favored game—fun if you care about repertoire matchups, less so if you want fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Patrick Corbin, Toronto Blue Jays

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Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

Not a must-watch: this projects as a predictable, pitcher-leaning slog unless the Giants send out someone wild — the Braves have the stronger team profile, but Reynaldo López’s numbers and a still-unannounced opponent make this more “solid background TV” than can’t-miss drama. MLB lists López as Atlanta’s starter and notes he’s shifting back into the rotation after bullpen work, while San Francisco’s starter was still TBA in previews.

The gNERD of 8.53 sits below both today’s average (~10.8) and the broader historical median, which matches the feel: Atlanta’s tNERD (6.72) is fueled by strong barreling and bullpen components, while San Francisco’s lower tNERD (3.62) is dragged down by baserunning and bullpen marks even as its broadcast appeal is higher. López’s pNERD (1.71) reflects mediocre underlying metrics here — a middling xFIP-, low swing-and-miss and ordinary velocity — so he’s unlikely to generate high-strikeout fireworks. The Giants’ unknown starter (pNERD 0) introduces variance: a surprise opener or rookie could spike entertainment, but absent that, this forecast leans toward competent baseball rather than edge-of-your-seat viewing. For storyline context, San Francisco’s offense carries some bite (Jung Hoo Lee headlining previews), but it’s not enough to flip the game into must-see territory.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Atlanta Braves

San Francisco Giants

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Not an obvious “must-watch” — the gNERD sits under both today’s and historical averages — but Walbert Ureña’s high-octane, rookie jump-start gives this one a neat subplot worth a peek. The headline: tidy team split—the A’s bring the more watchable roster profile (Athletics tNERD 5.10) while the Halos register anemic team watchability (Angels tNERD 1.23), so overall game NERD of 8.02 lands on the quieter side. Pitching is where the intrigue is concentrated: Ureña’s above-average pNERD (6.18) reflects his 97+ mph life and a string of scoreless, swing-and-miss outings that have turned heads this month, so he’s the primary reason to tune in. Ginn’s pNERD (3.54) signals a competent, workmanlike outing but not fireworks; he’s been effective in spot starts without the same upside. Add that Oakland’s positive “luck” suggests they may be due to outperform recent results, while the Angels’ poor defensive components and low tNERD mute expected run-scoring. Bottom line: low overall spectacle, but a young, hard-throwing Ureña gives this broadcast a legitimate reason to watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Athletics

Los Angeles Angels

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Skip this if you want a slugfest; this projects as a low-octane pitchers’ duel that’s interesting mostly to stat-heads. A gNERD of 6.62 sits well below today’s slate, driven by weak team NERDs and middling pNERDs — expect tidy defense, soft contact, and not many swing-for-the-fences moments. Arizona’s offense looks thin (poor batting and barrel rates) but its defense is a genuine asset, so the D-backs will try to turn weak contact into outs; Tampa Bay shows even less power and below-average defense, though a cheap payroll and a sneaky baserunning edge keep the game from being totally dull. Zac Gallen’s surface numbers have been ugly this year, yet his positive “luck” signal suggests some underperformance versus underlying metrics — he’s due for steadier outings even if his chase and whiff rates are down. Nick Martinez, conversely, has been rolling with a string of quality starts and strong strike% recently, though some peripherals hint at regression. All told: a watch if you dig matchup puzzles and pitching adjustments; skip if you want heat, homers, and nonstop action.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tampa Bay Rays

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

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Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Low-stakes watch: the 6.36 gNERD flags this as a below-average telecast — two low-pNERD youngsters with shaky underlying peripherals, but Detroit’s unusually high “Luck” means the scoreboard might understate their run-scoring upside.

Both starters come in with modest pNERD (Arrighetti 2.21, Montero 2.48) and elevated xFIP- marks (Arrighetti ~109, Montero ~116), which points to below-average expected run prevention even if recent box scores sometimes look better; Arrighetti has shown flashes of quality in recent starts, but his swing-and-miss and strike-rate components aren’t inspiring. The Tigers have been playing beneath their underlying numbers — that big positive Luck component suggests they’ve been unlucky and could score more than their raw batting runs imply, which is the main thing that keeps this game from being flat-out unwatchable.

Team NERDs are low (Astros 3.51, Tigers 4.52) and the game sits well under today’s and historical averages, so pick this one only if you like nibblers: pitch-to-contact starting battles with a small chance of an unexpected offensive bounce from Detroit.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

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Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

On paper this is a bit of a snoozer: a 5.07 gNERD sits at the very low end of today’s slate, driven by two teams with minimal team-NERD profiles and a pitching duel that only has sparks on one side. The Rockies’ tNERD (1.94) is anchored by a miserable offense (big negative batting runs and barrel rates) while the Twins’ (2.84) get dinged by poor defense, so there’s little lineup drama to rescue the broadcast. Tomoyuki Sugano’s pNERD is negative — he’s a veteran whose profile here (high xFIP-, slow pace, diminished swing-and-miss) doesn’t promise the kind of unpredictable fireworks that lift low-scoring games; Sugano is also the Rockies’ recent signing this winter. Taj Bradley is the reason to glance up: a 25-year-old with above-average velocity and the higher pNERD (5.77) who can generate strikeouts, though his SwStr% hasn’t been elite and he returned from an IL stint this season. In short: watch only if you want a chance to see Bradley carve up a weak lineup; otherwise this rates as low-priority viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Colorado Rockies

Minnesota Twins

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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