Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on July 5, 2026

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
15.9 4:20p San Diego Padres 8.4 Los Angeles Dodgers 11.3 JP Sears No data Emmet Sheehan 7.1
14.0 1:30p Miami Marlins 8.8 Athletics 4.5 Eury Pérez 6.9 Gage Jump 7.8
13.6 10:35a Minnesota Twins 3.1 New York Yankees 9.5 Joe Ryan 6.5 Ryan Weathers 8.0
13.5 10:00a Pittsburgh Pirates 7.3 Washington Nationals 8.3 Bubba Chandler 4.7 Cade Cavalli 6.6
11.9 9:30a New York Mets 4.9 Atlanta Braves 6.5 Nolan McLean 8.9 Martín Pérez 3.5
11.9 11:00a Chicago White Sox 8.4 Cleveland Guardians 6.5 Chris Murphy No data Tanner Bibee 3.9
11.5 11:30a St. Louis Cardinals 7.6 Chicago Cubs 8.2 Matthew Liberatore 5.4 Javier Assad 1.8
10.6 1:00p Milwaukee Brewers 7.8 Arizona Diamondbacks 4.0 Brandon Sproat 6.9 Eduardo Rodriguez 2.5
10.4 12:30p Detroit Tigers 4.7 Texas Rangers 5.6 Casey Mize 6.7 Kumar Rocker 3.9
9.1 6:30p Boston Red Sox 6.0 Los Angeles Angels 1.0 Ranger Suarez 6.2 Ryan Johnson 5.0
8.6 2:00p Toronto Blue Jays 2.6 Seattle Mariners 3.9 Trey Yesavage 4.6 Emerson Hancock 6.0
8.4 12:00p Philadelphia Phillies 6.2 Kansas City Royals 2.6 Aaron Nola 4.8 Luinder Avila 3.2
8.3 1:00p San Francisco Giants 4.0 Colorado Rockies 2.4 Tyler Mahle 4.4 Tanner Gordon 5.7
7.0 12:30p Tampa Bay Rays 3.6 Houston Astros 3.3 TBD No data Peter Lambert 2.0
6.1 10:05a Baltimore Orioles 4.6 Cincinnati Reds 3.3 Kyle Bradish 2.8 Nick Lodolo 1.5

Notes:

Detail

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:20p

Summary

This is the slate’s top gNERD (15.88) because a thumping Dodgers lineup (11.25 tNERD) meets a pitcher who profiles to generate whiffs and volatility, while the Padres offer enough defensive and bullpen quirks to keep things interesting. Emmet Sheehan (pNERD 7.14) is the real draw: his underlying peripherals (strong whiff profile and solid xFIP relative to peers) plus a very large positive “luck” component suggest he’s pitched worse than his skills imply and could bounce back after a recent clunker — a storyline worth watching. JP Sears shows up as a data hole (pNERD 0) — public previews peg him as an inconsistent lefty with a bloated ERA, so expect the Dodgers’ elite run creation and barrel rate to tee off if Sears doesn’t find feel early. The game’s high tNERD comes mostly from Los Angeles’ monstrous offense and above-average defense, while San Diego contributes interesting bullpen and broadcast factors that nudge watchability upward; in short, this is must-see for fans who like lineup fireworks and a pitcher's bounce-back narrative rather than for a pitcher's duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -42.2 8.4% 4.0 15.3 40.9 $255.5M 29.9 -10.0 3.47 3.37 — —
Z-score -1.38 0.39 0.85 1.04 1.37 0.60 0.85 -0.60 2.12 2.09 — —
tNERD -1.38 0.39 0.85 1.04 1.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 1.04 4.00 8.37

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 76.4 9.6% -2.1 21.7 39.5 $413.5M 30.0 13.0 2.45 2.51 — —
Z-score 2.58 1.49 -0.56 1.47 1.29 2.41 0.90 0.79 0.12 0.26 — —
tNERD 2.58 1.49 -0.56 1.47 1.29 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.06 0.13 4.00 11.25

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 91 14.7% 64.4% 94.5 mph 26 20.4s 30 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.49 1.91 0.20 0.15 -0.73 1.17 — — — —
pNERD 0.99 0.96 0.10 0.15 0.73 -0.58 1.00 0.00 3.80 7.14

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Miami Marlins @ Athletics, 1:30p

Summary

Two 23-year-old flamethrowers make this a can't-ignore mismatch: Eury Pérez’s midseason bounceback meets rookie lefty Gage Jump’s rising prospect hype, so expect velocity, strikeouts, and short leashes. Statistically this lines up—the game’s gNERD (13.98) sits comfortably above today’s mean and into the upper tail, driven by strong pNERD marks for both arms and a high Marlins tNERD showing. Pérez comes in with renewed form after an IL stint and a string of high-strikeout, low-walk outings that suggest he’s rebuilding pitch count and command (and is still somewhat inning-limited). Jump, meanwhile, is the lefty prospect the A’s just promoted — a deceptive low-slot fastball that touches the mid-to-high 90s and a strong AAA K rate make him a genuine swing-and-miss threat. Team-wise, Miami’s youthful baserunning and below-market payroll point toward action on the bases while Oakland’s defensive deficits (-23.3 fielding runs) and unusually positive “luck” suggest runs could be forthcoming once their underlying numbers tidy up. All told: high upside for strikeouts and quick hooks, plus enough offensive weaknesses and luck/defense mismatch to make this entertaining rather than clinical.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Miami Marlins (1.79); radio, Athletics (1.94)

Miami Marlins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 4.2 6.4% 7.4 3.2 29.6 $81.5M 27.4 9.0 1.79 1.66 — —
Z-score 0.17 -1.45 1.64 0.23 0.75 -1.39 -1.49 0.55 -1.17 -1.54 — —
tNERD 0.17 -1.45 1.64 0.23 0.75 1.39 1.49 0.55 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.75

Athletics

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 12.3 8.2% -2.8 -23.3 7.1 $135.2M 28.2 18.0 1.27 1.94 — —
Z-score 0.44 0.20 -0.72 -1.55 -0.48 -0.77 -0.71 1.09 -2.19 -0.95 — —
tNERD 0.44 0.20 -0.72 -1.55 -0.48 0.77 0.71 1.09 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.45

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 101 13.7% 63.1% 98.1 mph 23 20.6s -2 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.07 1.45 -0.29 1.82 -1.52 1.33 — — — —
pNERD -0.14 0.72 -0.15 1.82 1.52 -0.67 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.91

Gage Jump, Athletics

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 87 11.1% 67.1% 96.3 mph 23 20.6s -19 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.72 0.23 1.33 0.98 -1.52 1.33 — — — —
pNERD 1.43 0.12 0.67 0.98 1.52 -0.67 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.85

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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

This one’s worth tuning into: a high gNERD (13.58) driven by a Yankees lineup that profiles for barrels and baserunning against two intriguing starters — a rattled-but-talented Ryan Weathers and a steady Joe Ryan. The Yankees’ team traits (big barrel rate and sneaky baserunning) tilt the game toward offense, which is why their tNERD is so high and why the home side looks likely to produce action. Ryan Weathers, a recent acquisition who draws the start for New York, carries the higher pNERD (8.02) and a big positive “luck” signal — he’s been worse than his peripherals suggest, so regression to better results is plausible. That said, he finished June with louder results than he’d like, a stretch noted in recent reporting. Joe Ryan (pNERD 6.52) is the steadier baseline arm for Minnesota; his surface numbers and matchup profile promise quality innings but less swing-for-the-fences drama than Weathers’ variance. With the Yankees’ offense and bullpen upside versus a weaker Twins defensive/bullpen profile, the game leans toward watchable, especially if you like offense-with-variance; historically, a 13.58 gNERD sits well above the median and near the day’s top games.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Minnesota Twins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 21.7 8.7% -4.5 -17.7 -2.8 $122.1M 28.9 -15.0 2.30 2.06 — —
Z-score 0.75 0.66 -1.11 -1.18 -1.03 -0.92 -0.06 -0.90 -0.17 -0.69 — —
tNERD 0.75 0.66 -1.11 -1.18 -1.03 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.09

New York Yankees

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 28.0 9.8% 7.2 6.8 31.0 $337.1M 29.9 -14.0 2.08 2.22 — —
Z-score 0.96 1.67 1.59 0.47 0.82 1.54 0.85 -0.84 -0.61 -0.36 — —
tNERD 0.96 1.67 1.59 0.47 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.53

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 83 11.3% 67.4% 93.4 mph 30 19.3s 2 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.94 0.33 1.42 -0.36 0.31 0.27 — — — —
pNERD 1.88 0.16 0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.10 0.00 3.80 6.52

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 81 11.0% 63.9% 95.2 mph 26 19.1s 17 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.05 0.18 0.03 0.47 -0.73 0.11 — — — —
pNERD 2.11 0.09 0.02 0.47 0.73 -0.05 0.85 0.00 3.80 8.02

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, 10:00a

Summary

A legitimately watchable pitching duel on paper — Cavalli brings better underlying stuff and a headline-grabbing suspension-appeal subplot, while Chandler supplies elite velo and predictable volatility.

The gNERD of 13.47 sits well above the historical mean and today’s average, so this game is worth prioritizing: the teams’ tNERDs (7.32 PIT, 8.32 WAS) promise baserunning and power upside, while the deciding chess match is the starters. Cavalli (pNERD 6.55) offers the stronger profile — an 85 xFIP- proxy, strike-rate gains and a season-high 13‑K outing that suggest swing-and-miss upside; he was suspended for the benches-clearing incident but has appealed and is expected to pitch. Chandler (pNERD 4.74) brings 98+ mph juice and youth, which fuels high-leverage excitement but also control problems and recent walk issues that can flip an otherwise tidy start into a fast-paced, hittable slog. With both bullpens uneven (Nationals’ unit notably taxed), expect innings-eating to matter — high K upside plus walks and shaky relief make this a tasty watch for fans who like volatility and storyline, not a slow pitchers’ duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 36.8 8.4% 6.7 -18.5 11.9 $119.1M 28.8 8.0 2.01 1.98 — —
Z-score 1.26 0.39 1.48 -1.23 -0.22 -0.96 -0.20 0.49 -0.74 -0.86 — —
tNERD 1.26 0.39 1.48 -1.23 -0.22 0.96 0.20 0.49 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.32

Washington Nationals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 26.5 9.0% 7.0 2.1 -19.8 $114.5M 27.1 -36.0 2.00 2.20 — —
Z-score 0.91 0.94 1.55 0.16 -1.96 -1.01 -1.71 -2.16 -0.75 -0.40 — —
tNERD 0.91 0.94 1.55 0.16 -1.96 1.01 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.32

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 119 10.4% 63.1% 98.5 mph 23 19.5s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.08 -0.10 -0.32 2.00 -1.52 0.43 — — — —
pNERD -2.15 -0.05 -0.16 2.00 1.52 -0.22 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.74

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 85 10.9% 65.9% 96.5 mph 27 21.5s 2 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.83 0.14 0.82 1.07 -0.47 2.06 — — — —
pNERD 1.66 0.07 0.41 1.07 0.47 -1.03 0.10 0.00 3.80 6.55

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 9:30a

Summary

A contrast-of-styles duel: young, high-variance flamethrower Nolan McLean (high pNERD) versus veteran southpaw Martín Pérez’s contact-first craftiness — a matchup that promises either strikeout fireworks or soft-contact innings depending on which script holds. McLean’s sky-high pNERD (8.87) and above-average velocity — plus a purple patch in June — make him the primary reason this game’s gNERD (11.91) sits above the day’s mean; he’s the real source of swing-and-miss upside here. Pérez, by contrast, profiles as an 89–90 mph lefty who lives on grounders and contact suppression, lowering the chance of a long ball duel but increasing low-event innings. The Braves’ higher tNERD (6.49) is driven by a strong bullpen and defense profile while the Mets’ tNERD (4.93) is weighed down by negative batting runs despite a lively power (barrel) metric; that makes the game watchable if you like late-inning leverage and a high-ceiling rookie start rather than a steady pitchers’ duel. Overall: prioritize this if you want volatility from the rookie arm and bullpen leverage; skip it if you prefer predictable, low-action contests.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -44.1 8.8% -3.1 -4.6 35.8 $374.9M 29.9 -9.0 3.32 3.05 — —
Z-score -1.44 0.75 -0.79 -0.29 1.09 1.97 0.85 -0.54 1.82 1.41 — —
tNERD -1.44 0.75 -0.79 -0.29 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.70 4.00 4.93

Atlanta Braves

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -7.3 9.0% 0.5 6.4 39.3 $249.8M 30.5 -33.0 2.36 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.21 0.94 0.04 0.44 1.28 0.54 1.36 -1.98 -0.05 -0.06 — —
tNERD -0.21 0.94 0.04 0.44 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.49

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 80 9.8% 62.9% 95.5 mph 24 17.2s 13 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.11 -0.38 -0.39 0.61 -1.26 -1.44 — — — —
pNERD 2.22 -0.19 -0.20 0.61 1.26 0.72 0.65 0.00 3.80 8.87

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 99 8.9% 61.2% 89.4 mph 35 17.6s -22 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.04 -0.80 -1.06 -2.22 1.62 -1.11 — — — —
pNERD 0.09 -0.40 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.52

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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 11:00a

Summary

Worth tuning in if you like tidy contrasts: a quietly dangerous Cleveland starter facing a White Sox lineup that barrels the ball and skews young, while Chicago’s turn to a reliever-turned-starter makes the pitching matchup a bit of a question mark. The gNERD of 11.89 sits above both the historical mean (10.11) and today’s game average (~10.7), so this is mildly above-average watchability on paper given a high combined tNERD (7.46) driven by Chicago’s strong barrel rate and youth and Cleveland’s solid defense and pen. The White Sox’s offense profiles as the more interesting side (high barrel rate, positive batting runs and age components), while the Guardians carry the better run prevention profile but a notably quiet offense. Tanner Bibee has shown real form of late — a strong multi-start stretch and seven-inning outings recently — even though his underlying numbers are roughly league-average; his arsenal and game-log make him the clear known quantity. Chris Murphy’s pNERD of 0 reflects limited starter data (he’s been used as a reliever and has injury/recall history), which adds uncertainty to the game’s pitching story. Overall: watch if you want a matchup where hitters (White Sox) test a hot-but-average-talent starter (Bibee) and the unknown of Murphy could tilt the game toward miscues or bullpen action.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Chicago White Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 20.8 9.0% -3.0 1.1 22.7 $105.8M 27.1 -7.0 1.82 2.57 — —
Z-score 0.72 0.94 -0.77 0.09 0.37 -1.11 -1.76 -0.42 -1.11 0.39 — —
tNERD 0.72 0.94 -0.77 0.09 0.37 1.11 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.19 4.00 8.42

Cleveland Guardians

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -32.3 6.1% 3.3 7.0 26.7 $88.9M 27.6 1.0 2.16 3.14 — —
Z-score -1.05 -1.73 0.69 0.49 0.59 -1.30 -1.35 0.06 -0.44 1.60 — —
tNERD -1.05 -1.73 0.69 0.49 0.59 1.30 1.35 0.06 0.00 0.80 4.00 6.50

Chris Murphy, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 99 10.9% 63.9% 93.9 mph 27 20.4s -10 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.04 0.14 0.01 -0.13 -0.47 1.17 — — — —
pNERD 0.09 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.47 -0.58 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.85

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:30a

Summary

A better-than-average watch: both lineups (high tNERDs) promise action, and Matthew Liberatore’s recent one-hit, nine‑K outing makes him an interesting bounce‑back story against a Javier Assad staffed more for contact than swing‑and‑miss. MLB-level context and the NERD components point to a game that’s likely to be lively rather than a pitcher's duel.

The 11.54 gNERD sits above today’s mean and reflects two energetic offenses and excellent defenses (Cardinals and Cubs tNERDs both high), so expect baserunning and plays in the field to matter. Liberatore’s stronger pNERD (5.45) leans on that recent five‑inning, one‑hit, nine‑strikeout start and a large positive “luck” component that suggests his underlying stuff could start showing in the surface results. Assad’s pNERD (1.78) is low because he doesn’t miss many bats (very poor SwStr%) and profiles as a sinker‑heavy, contact‑inducing arm — useful for the Cubs amid rotation injuries but one that usually makes for more offense when matched with active lineups. Put simply: pick this game if you like borderline starters, fielding plays, and the chance of a messy, entertaining middle innings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 7.7 7.6% 2.0 14.6 3.0 $111.2M 26.9 -3.0 2.17 2.15 — —
Z-score 0.29 -0.35 0.39 1.00 -0.71 -1.05 -1.94 -0.18 -0.43 -0.50 — —
tNERD 0.29 -0.35 0.39 1.00 -0.71 1.05 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.61

Chicago Cubs

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 40.9 7.6% 0.9 35.8 -7.1 $246.2M 29.8 8.0 3.01 3.15 — —
Z-score 1.39 -0.35 0.14 2.42 -1.26 0.50 0.67 0.49 1.22 1.62 — —
tNERD 1.39 -0.35 0.14 2.42 -1.26 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.61 0.81 4.00 8.25

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 102 10.0% 63.7% 94.5 mph 26 18.5s 27 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.12 -0.28 -0.07 0.15 -0.73 -0.38 — — — —
pNERD -0.25 -0.14 -0.03 0.15 0.73 0.19 1.00 0.00 3.80 5.45

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 109 5.2% 62.0% 93.2 mph 28 17.9s 0 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.52 -2.53 -0.74 -0.45 -0.21 -0.87 — — — —
pNERD -1.03 -1.26 -0.37 0.00 0.21 0.43 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.78

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:00p

Summary

Worth tuning in if you like contrast: a high-variance, hard-throwing Brandon Sproat (pNERD 6.89) versus an unlikely All‑Star Eduardo Rodríguez (pNERD 2.53) who's been excellent lately — the sort of matchup that can produce either a fun pitcher’s duel or a quick blowup. The gNERD of 10.60 sits right around a typical day’s game, but the story here is Brewers offense/bullpen juice (Milwaukee’s tNERD 7.82) fighting an Arizona club that defends well but can’t score (Arizona tNERD 3.98), which makes for uneven but watchable swings in tempo. Sproat’s recent June surge and plus velo make him a live arm who can rack strikeouts and volatile innings; that upside shows in his pNERD and the scouting writeups. Rodriguez, meanwhile, arrives with All‑Star recognition and a string of scoreless/near‑scoreless outings, yet his underlying swinging‑strike and xFIP profile keep his pNERD low — he’s performing better than some peripherals suggest. If you want strikeouts, power (Sproat) and bullpen fireworks (Brewers), prioritize this; if you prefer steady, low‑variance pitching, it’s less compelling.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 19.7 7.2% 3.4 -3.7 33.9 $139.3M 27.7 -20.0 2.66 2.56 — —
Z-score 0.69 -0.72 0.72 -0.23 0.98 -0.73 -1.21 -1.20 0.53 0.37 — —
tNERD 0.69 -0.72 0.72 -0.23 0.98 0.73 1.21 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 7.82

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -43.0 7.0% 2.6 23.9 18.3 $231.6M 30.2 -20.0 2.19 1.92 — —
Z-score -1.40 -0.90 0.53 1.62 0.13 0.33 1.08 -1.20 -0.39 -0.99 — —
tNERD -1.40 -0.90 0.53 1.62 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.98

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 97 10.7% 62.1% 96.5 mph 25 18.9s 29 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.16 0.04 -0.69 1.07 -0.99 -0.05 — — — —
pNERD 0.31 0.02 -0.35 1.07 0.99 0.03 1.00 0.00 3.80 6.89

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 106 7.9% 62.8% 92.0 mph 33 18.3s -54 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.35 -1.26 -0.43 -1.01 1.10 -0.54 — — — —
pNERD -0.70 -0.63 -0.22 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.53

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Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers, 12:30p

Summary

Worth a look if you like a pitching tilt with a chance of late offensive life: Casey Mize’s higher pNERD and cleaner underlying metrics make this feel like a pitchers’ duel on paper, but the Rangers’ stronger team NERD and very high “Luck” suggest runs could arrive if Texas rebounds. MLB pushed Kumar Rocker’s turn to Sunday (so he’s lined up for this start), and he’s come into the weekend on a modestly improved stretch after a quality outing vs. Toronto.

Mize has quietly owned the Rangers in past matchups and brings the better pNERD (6.65) thanks to a strong xFIP- component and above-average swing-and-pace marks, while Rocker’s lower pNERD (3.86) is pulled down by weaker strike% and a slow pace that can sap drama. The teams’ tNERDs (TEX 5.60, DET 4.67) and Texas’s big positive Luck (29.0) mean the scoreboard could wake up even if the early innings look tidy. With a gNERD of 10.39—around the middle of typical games—this is a solid mid-tier watch: tune in for Mize’s command and stay if you want to see whether the Rangers’ underperformance corrects into offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -6.3 9.0% -1.6 -12.2 8.2 $239.2M 29.6 16.0 2.74 2.64 — —
Z-score -0.18 0.94 -0.44 -0.81 -0.42 0.42 0.58 0.97 0.69 0.54 — —
tNERD -0.18 0.94 -0.44 -0.81 -0.42 0.00 0.00 0.97 0.34 0.27 4.00 4.67

Texas Rangers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 5.8 7.7% -1.9 -0.7 23.5 $201.9M 30.3 29.0 2.01 2.08 — —
Z-score 0.22 -0.26 -0.51 -0.03 0.41 -0.01 1.17 1.75 -0.74 -0.65 — —
tNERD 0.22 -0.26 -0.51 -0.03 0.41 0.01 0.00 1.75 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.60

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 85 12.8% 64.7% 93.5 mph 29 17.7s -23 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.83 1.03 0.33 -0.32 0.05 -1.03 — — — —
pNERD 1.66 0.51 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.65

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 99 11.3% 61.5% 94.4 mph 26 20.3s -7 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.04 0.33 -0.96 0.10 -0.73 1.09 — — — —
pNERD 0.09 0.16 -0.48 0.10 0.73 -0.54 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.86

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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:30p

Summary

Middling overall watchability — a bona fide ace (Ranger Suárez) gives this game purpose, but the matchup’s team-level dullness and a low gNERD (9.10) keep it from being a must-see. Ranger Suárez’s presence — he’s the Red Sox’s big offseason splash and now an All-Star — raises the ceiling: he’s been pitching like one lately and provides a reasons-to-watch storyline for anyone who enjoys elite lefty sequencing.

Analytically, the game is driven by a big team split (Boston tNERD 5.96 vs. Angels 0.99) — Boston’s fielding and bullpen have added watchable nuance while the Angels’ defense and baserunning are real drags — so you’re more likely to see quality pitching and small-ball complexities than fireworks. Ranger’s strong run-prevention and recent quality starts suggest a low-scoring, tidy outing; the Angels counter with 23-year-old Ryan Johnson, a high-variance youngster who has flashed dominance (a recent six-inning one-hitter) but carries an ugly xFIP and big positive “luck” that implies possible regression toward competence.

Bottom line: watch for Suárez’s All-Star-caliber stuff and Johnson’s boom-or-bust volatility, but don’t expect a slugfest — this is a pitcher-centric, mid-tier watch rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -34.4 6.9% 4.3 20.8 26.9 $263.6M 29.2 13.0 2.47 2.64 — —
Z-score -1.12 -0.99 0.92 1.41 0.60 0.70 0.17 0.79 0.16 0.54 — —
tNERD -1.12 -0.99 0.92 1.41 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.08 0.27 4.00 5.96

Los Angeles Angels

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -14.3 8.8% -7.1 -23.7 2.5 $191.6M 28.6 -5.0 2.59 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.45 0.75 -1.71 -1.58 -0.74 -0.13 -0.39 -0.30 0.40 -0.80 — —
tNERD -0.45 0.75 -1.71 -1.58 -0.74 0.13 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.00 0.99

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 81 10.4% 62.8% 91.1 mph 30 17.6s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.05 -0.10 -0.43 -1.43 0.31 -1.11 — — — —
pNERD 2.11 -0.05 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.20

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 122 12.3% 65.6% 92.3 mph 23 17.8s 52 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.24 0.79 0.70 -0.87 -1.52 -0.95 — — — —
pNERD -2.49 0.40 0.35 0.00 1.52 0.48 1.00 0.00 3.80 5.05

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners, 2:00p

Summary

Not must-see TV, but worth a glance: a promising young arm in Trey Yesavage meets a steadier Emerson Hancock, so you get prospect intrigue plus the realistic chance of a contained, low-scoring pitcher’s duel rather than fireworks.

Yesavage arrives with prospect buzz and limited big-league innings, so the storyline is his development and whether the Blue Jays will let him work deeper into games; that upside lifts watchability even though his peripherals (higher xFIP-) drag his pNERD down. Hancock is the safer bet: better pNERD, a sub-100 xFIP-, crisp velocity and strikeout profile, and recent home form that suggests he’ll keep this game tidy.

Team context pushes this toward modest interest: Toronto’s offense metrics are cold and suppress the game’s upside, while Seattle’s defensive shortfalls and middling tNERD make the final outcome feel more about controlled pitching than back-and-forth drama. Taken together, the game is watchable for prospect-watchers and pitching fans, but not a high-priority showdown on the day’s slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -26.2 6.3% -5.3 11.6 26.1 $306.1M 30.1 4.0 3.10 2.39 — —
Z-score -0.84 -1.55 -1.30 0.79 0.56 1.18 0.99 0.24 1.40 0.01 — —
tNERD -0.84 -1.55 -1.30 0.79 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.70 0.00 4.00 2.61

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 7.6 8.0% -3.0 -20.7 24.9 $196.7M 28.4 9.0 2.35 2.52 — —
Z-score 0.28 0.02 -0.77 -1.38 0.49 -0.07 -0.52 0.55 -0.07 0.28 — —
tNERD 0.28 0.02 -0.77 -1.38 0.49 0.07 0.52 0.55 0.00 0.14 4.00 3.93

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 114 13.5% 62.0% 94.4 mph 22 18.4s -34 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.80 1.35 -0.75 0.10 -1.78 -0.46 — — — —
pNERD -1.59 0.68 -0.37 0.10 1.78 0.23 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.62

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 89 10.3% 63.9% 95.2 mph 27 18.7s -1 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.61 -0.14 0.02 0.47 -0.47 -0.22 — — — —
pNERD 1.21 -0.07 0.01 0.47 0.47 0.11 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.00

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals, 12:00p

Summary

Not must-see TV: a gNERD of 8.37 and two so-so starters put this game in the lower tier of watchability. Still, Aaron Nola’s surprising bad run and Luinder Avila’s boom-or-bust stuff give it a couple of compelling storylines worth a glance. The split in team nerdiness — Phillies 6.18 vs Royals 2.65 — says Philadelphia brings more structural intrigue (bullpen chaos and some baserunning value) while Kansas City offers less overall team drama; that combination produces modest game-level entertainment. Nola’s pNERD (4.77) is the bigger reason to tune in: he’s been struggling on the surface (6.04 ERA this season) but the pitching-side luck component here implies he’s been running below the peripherals and could rebound. Avila (pNERD 3.15) is a young, high-velocity rookie whose sinker/slider mix can miss bats or miss spots — he rebounded from a brutal outing to a quality start recently, which makes him interesting as a volatility watch. In short: this isn’t a marquee pitching duel, but it’s worth watching if you want to see whether a scuffling veteran corrects course or a hard-throwing rookie flashes upside; otherwise you can skip it for higher-nerd matchups.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -27.7 7.9% 6.6 -7.3 40.2 $309.8M 30.5 -20.0 2.92 2.69 — —
Z-score -0.89 -0.07 1.46 -0.48 1.33 1.22 1.36 -1.20 1.03 0.64 — —
tNERD -0.89 -0.07 1.46 -0.48 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.32 4.00 6.18

Kansas City Royals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -31.2 8.3% 2.0 5.7 -23.9 $184.5M 29.7 9.0 2.11 2.22 — —
Z-score -1.01 0.29 0.39 0.40 -2.18 -0.21 0.62 0.55 -0.54 -0.36 — —
tNERD -1.01 0.29 0.39 0.40 -2.18 0.21 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.65

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 95 10.9% 63.8% 91.9 mph 33 20.5s 46 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.27 0.14 -0.03 -1.06 1.10 1.25 — — — —
pNERD 0.54 0.07 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.62 1.00 0.00 3.80 4.77

Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 118 9.1% 59.0% 96.3 mph 24 18.6s 7 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.02 -0.70 -1.98 0.98 -1.26 -0.30 — — — —
pNERD -2.04 -0.35 -0.99 0.98 1.26 0.15 0.35 0.00 3.80 3.15

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San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, 1:00p

Summary

Not a must-watch by the numbers — this gNERD (8.27) sits below both today’s game-average and the historical median — but there’s a low-key intrigue: Coors Field’s hitter-friendly greasepaint and two struggling starters with big “bad-luck” signals mean a few volatile innings are likely. Tyler Mahle has been battered this year (1-8, 5.67 ERA, 66.2 IP) while Tanner Gordon’s surface numbers (0-2, 6.69 ERA) hide a recent return from the IL and at least one encouraging outing on comeback, so both could surprise in either direction. The teams themselves lower the ceiling: San Francisco’s tNERD (4.02) is modest and Colorado’s is tiny (2.38), so you shouldn’t expect sustained, quality-lineup fireworks despite Coors Field’s boost to run environment. Pitching-wise Gordon’s slightly higher pNERD (5.75 vs Mahle’s 4.40) and both pitchers’ positive “luck” components suggest regression toward better underlying results — that makes this one watchable for bullpen volatility and sporadic scoring, not for a tidy pitchers’ duel or a classic offensive showcase.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 1.5 7.3% -7.6 -5.2 -5.3 $228.3M 29.6 32.0 3.20 3.49 — —
Z-score 0.08 -0.63 -1.83 -0.34 -1.16 0.29 0.49 1.93 1.59 2.34 — —
tNERD 0.08 -0.63 -1.83 -0.34 -1.16 0.00 0.00 1.93 0.79 1.17 4.00 4.02

Colorado Rockies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -24.8 6.9% -3.0 -9.6 20.2 $134.1M 29.5 9.0 1.73 1.80 — —
Z-score -0.80 -0.99 -0.77 -0.63 0.23 -0.79 0.44 0.55 -1.29 -1.25 — —
tNERD -0.80 -0.99 -0.77 -0.63 0.23 0.79 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.38

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 99 8.2% 62.7% 92.4 mph 31 18.2s 39 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.04 -1.12 -0.49 -0.83 0.57 -0.63 — — — —
pNERD 0.09 -0.56 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.31 1.00 0.00 3.80 4.40

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 101 11.4% 65.9% 92.9 mph 28 18.3s 39 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.07 0.37 0.84 -0.59 -0.21 -0.54 — — — —
pNERD -0.14 0.19 0.42 0.00 0.21 0.27 1.00 0.00 3.80 5.75

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros, 12:30p

Summary

This is a low-priority watch: the gNERD (6.98) and both teams’ tNERDs (Rays 3.60, Astros 3.30) put this near the bottom of today’s slate, and the pitching matchup is undercooked with a TBD opposite Peter Lambert.

Statistically, the game’s blandness is driven by weak team profiles (both clubs’ tNERDs sit well below the historic and today’s averages) and low pNERD depth—Lambert’s 2.04 and an unknown opponent (pNERD 0) offer fewer strikeout/analytics sparks than you want. The Rays’ unusually high “Luck” component suggests they’ve been underperforming their peripherals and could bounce offensively, which is one of the few live plotlines to watch. The Astros’ starter, Peter Lambert, has flashes—including a seven‑inning gem in May—but his recent starts have been mixed, so this could be either a sleepy pitchers’ duel or a short-lived offensive surprise; his peripherals (xFIP‑ish metrics and modest swing‑and‑miss) don’t scream dominance.

In short: tune in only if you care about Rays regression narratives or Lambert’s bounceback; otherwise pick a higher gNERD game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 25.4 5.5% 1.4 -12.3 5.8 $106.9M 29.1 17.0 2.27 2.10 — —
Z-score 0.88 -2.28 0.25 -0.81 -0.56 -1.10 0.07 1.03 -0.23 -0.61 — —
tNERD 0.88 -2.28 0.25 -0.81 -0.56 1.10 0.00 1.03 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.60

Houston Astros

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 10.3 8.5% -3.6 -4.4 6.4 $232.7M 28.9 0.0 2.17 1.99 — —
Z-score 0.37 0.48 -0.90 -0.28 -0.52 0.34 -0.16 0.00 -0.42 -0.84 — —
tNERD 0.37 0.48 -0.90 -0.28 -0.52 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.30

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 111 10.1% 62.8% 94.0 mph 29 19.4s -27 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.63 -0.24 -0.41 -0.08 0.05 0.35 — — — —
pNERD -1.26 -0.12 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.04

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Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:05a

Summary

Skip-if-you’ve-got-better-options game: the numbers and matchups both point to low drama. The gNERD (6.06) sits at the bottom of today's slate largely because the pitching profiles are bland — Bradish and Lodolo combine for a meager average pNERD (2.12) and neither presents the swing-for-the-fences volatility that makes starts must-see. Bradish has a decent velocity and middling xFIP but came in off a rough outing and is explicitly “looking to get back on track.” Lodolo showed signs of life with a one-hit, scoreless turn recently but has an uneven season and even took a scary comebacker that left him sore — hopeful to be fine but not exactly a marquee narrative. Team-wise, both clubs underwhelm: the Orioles’ defensive issues and mixed bullpen depth blunt excitement while the Reds’ lineup has been soft overall even as it shows some power in barrels; Cincinnati is also trying to shake a rough home stretch. Put simply: low-tension starters, middling offenses, and bullpen questions equal low watchability unless you’re watching for quirks (Lodolo’s lefty profile vs. Orioles’ righty damage) or roster moves.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Baltimore Orioles

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 8.0 8.2% -0.8 -8.5 23.8 $214.8M 29.0 -12.0 2.82 2.10 — —
Z-score 0.30 0.20 -0.26 -0.56 0.43 0.14 -0.02 -0.72 0.85 -0.61 — —
tNERD 0.30 0.20 -0.26 -0.56 0.43 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.42 0.00 4.00 4.56

Cincinnati Reds

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -46.8 9.3% -0.6 -10.1 -11.1 $147.4M 28.0 7.0 2.09 2.11 — —
Z-score -1.53 1.21 -0.21 -0.66 -1.48 -0.63 -0.94 0.43 -0.59 -0.59 — —
tNERD -1.53 1.21 -0.21 -0.66 -1.48 0.63 0.94 0.43 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.32

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 96 10.7% 60.7% 94.6 mph 29 21.5s -5 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.21 0.04 -1.29 0.19 0.05 2.06 — — — —
pNERD 0.43 0.02 -0.64 0.19 0.00 -1.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.76

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 116 9.0% 62.3% 94.0 mph 28 19.0s -2 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.91 -0.75 -0.64 -0.08 -0.21 0.03 — — — —
pNERD -1.82 -0.37 -0.32 0.00 0.21 -0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.49

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