MLB: What to watch on July 6, 2026

• 06 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

Watch this mostly for Cam Schlittler — he’s the type of starter who makes baseball feel like an out-of-tune metronome: loud, fast, and reliably terrifying. The rest of the game is a contrast: a high-octane Yankees attack against a Rays club that looks vulnerable but might be due for positive regression.

Schlittler’s sky‑high pNERD (10.03) matches what you see on the statlines — elite velo, heavy fastball usage and mid‑season All‑Star chatter — which turns every plate appearance into must-see TV for pitcher‑watchers. Griffin Jax’s pNERD (6.68) is solid but not dazzling; he’s in the Rays’ starter conversion and has shown the strikeout ability they need (recent season‑high seven K outing). The Yankees’ tNERD (9.47) is powered by loud hitting (barrel rate, baserunning), while the Rays’ weaker barrel rate and negative fielding are offsets — though their positive Luck suggests some underperformance that could bite the Yankees later. Overall gNERD 14.86 sits at the top of the day’s slate and into the historical upper tier, so pick this one if you want elite‑pitcher theatre with a plausible counter‑narrative.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Worth putting on: this one has the look of an above‑average pitching duel that still promises action — gNERD 14.37 puts it near the top of today’s slate — because both teams rate well and the starters profile as live arms with complementary storylines. The Brewers’ roster metrics (strong bullpen and young, punchy lineup) and the Cardinals’ excellent defense push the team NERDs above today’s means, so you should expect quality at‑bats and late‑inning leverage plays rather than a slog; Shane Drohan’s pNERD (7.03) is backed by a recent outing in which he tied a career high with seven strikeouts, and he’s a true 2026 rookie ascending into the rotation. Dustin May (6.38 pNERD) brings higher velocity and a positive “luck” signal that suggests his results may improve, but note he left a July 2 outing with a right‑ankle contusion and was monitored thereafter — the injury is a legitimate caveat even though he’s listed to start. In short: high gNERD, intriguing matchup, bullpen and defense narratives make this one worth prioritizing — just keep an eye on May’s health.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

If you want a pitching-first game, this is it: Cristopher Sánchez (pNERD 10.25) turns what would otherwise be a one-sided matchup into something worth watching, and that lifts an above-average gNERD (12.35) into must-check territory. The numbers tell the story—Sánchez profiles as legitimately elite (low xFIP-, strong swing-and-miss and mid-90s velocity), so his start alone raises the ceiling here and helps explain why oddsmakers peg Philly as a clear favorite. But the rest of the card softens things: the Phillies’ tNERD (5.99) is solid while the Royals’ tNERD (2.63) signals limited offensive intrigue, and Noah Cameron (pNERD 5.82) is a league-average, low-swing-and-miss lefty who’s had a rough recent outing and some earlier back tightness — meaning he could be better than his surface numbers suggest, but he’s not likely to overpower Sanchez. In short: watch for Sánchez’s command and length (he’s the game’s entertainment engine); expect a pitcher’s duel tilted to Philly rather than a back-and-forth barnburner.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Kansas City Royals

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Not must-see TV, but lean-in if you like a veteran ace trying to re-find his curve and a home bullpen that can turn a game into a fast, ugly delight. Walker Buehler gives this one the best shot at action—his pNERD (5.53) and a sub-100 xFIP- suggest he still misses enough bats to keep things tense, and local narratives (and previews) peg him as the Padres’ rotation piece tonight.

The gNERD of 10.58 lands near the middle of historical norms, but the matchup skews watchable because San Diego’s tNERD is high (8.45) thanks to a stout bullpen and strong broadcaster components that make late innings more fun; Arizona’s offense and overall tNERD (3.92) are the dampener.

Brandon Pfaadt (pNERD 3.27) profiles as the riskier, less-effective arm (higher xFIP-), though his positive luck component hints at some upside if he regresses toward the mean. Buehler’s sizable positive “luck” suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could tighten things up, raising the chance of a low-scoring, pitcher-driven evening—good if you like strikeout/relief-swing drama, not great if you crave offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Not a can’t-miss headline game, but it’s worth a look if you like contact, baserunning, and managerial drama: a young Mike Burrows (26) and his long-armed, low-K profile will go up against veteran Miles Mikolas (37), while the Nationals’ offense and baserunning add pop — and their bullpen’s season-long troubles make late innings dicey. The gNERD of 9.79 sits a touch below today’s mean, mostly because Houston’s tNERD is dull (weak baserunning and defense) while Washington’s lineup rates well (barrels, batting runs, and aggressive baserunning), making the early-to-mid innings more watchable; however, the Nats’ bullpen has been a recurring negative and could sap late-game excitement. Both starters profile as contact pitchers with below-average swing-and-miss but positive “luck” scores here, which suggests they may be getting worse-looking results than their peripherals imply — that can mean more balls in play and offensive action rather than strikeout duels. Burrows has bounced between roles this month but is back into the rotation, and Mikolas brings innings-eating experience; if you prefer offense, baserunning plays, and managerial decisions over pure pitching fireworks, tune in.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Houston Astros

Washington Nationals

Mike Burrows, Houston Astros

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

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Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Not a must-watch classic, but a clean little pitching duel with a storyline: Kevin Gausman returns to the park where he once starred, and Landen Roupp — a 27-year-old with a string of solid outings and a recent home-park controversy — gives this game a human-interest hook.

The gNERD of 9.67 sits below today's average (11.26), so don’t expect fireworks driven by offenses; the teams’ tNERDs are low (Blue Jays especially, with weak barrel and batting metrics), which suppresses play-by-play excitement. The pitching side lifts things: both starters register above-average pNERDs (Gausman 5.81, Roupp 6.80), so this is the kind of game where sequencing, strikeout rates and bullpen usage matter more than big swings. Gausman’s veteran profile and familiarity with Oracle Park make for a tidy subplot, while Roupp’s recent quality starts — and the local reaction that followed one home outing — add texture and a reason to watch his outing specifically. Expect a pitcher's game that rewards viewers who like matchup quirks, subtle sequencing, and the possibility of a bullpen-driven late wobble.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Toronto Blue Jays

San Francisco Giants

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Low gNERD, low fireworks: this feels like a background game unless you’re into bullpen chaos and a Freddy Peralta trade-deadline subplot. The 9.28 gNERD sits near the bottom of today’s slate and below the historical mean, so it’s not a must-see on raw metrics — but there are watchable threads. Peralta (Mets) and Reynaldo López (Braves) were announced as the probables, giving the matchup a clear narrative: Peralta’s been uneven and is squarely in trade-deadline conversation, which makes every bounce, K or mistake feel consequential. Statistically the teams are similar-ish but Atlanta’s tNERD edge comes from slightly better offense/defense components and a bullpen profile that can produce late-innings volatility; Atlanta also just made a lineup/injury move with Ha-Seong Kim to the IL, which nudges the matchup feel. Peralta’s positive “luck” here suggests upside (expectation of better results than his recent box scores), while López’s profile and low pNERD warn of a slog if he’s erratic. Oddsmakers favor Atlanta, so watch if you want trade-deadline theater and bullpen swinginess; otherwise this one’s low priority.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

This is a low‑interest mismatch on paper — the Dodgers’ fireworks and depth make this one easy to skip unless you’re a Freeland or matchup nerd. Kyle Freeland’s recent run of results masks a messy surface: he’s pitched well enough to string together a few starts but carries a bloated ERA and a big “luck” component in the NERD inputs, while Eric Lauer is a midseason acquisition who’s been serviceable for Los Angeles but doesn’t miss many bats (his SwStr and xFIP indicators are poor).

The tNERD split tells the tale — Dodgers offense and defense profiles are elite and lift the game’s watchability for fans of high‑quality team play, while Colorado’s team metrics are some of the worst on the slate, leaving scoring upside mostly one‑sided. Freeland’s modest pNERD (4.8) plus his positive luck suggests occasional overperformance; Lauer’s near‑zero pNERD and contact profile hint at a short leash and lots of balls in play. If you want something lively, watch for the Rockies’ hot hitters (they’ve been swinging well this past week) trying to puncture a dominant Dodgers lineup; otherwise this is a low gNERD, low‑drama spot.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Eric Lauer, Los Angeles Dodgers

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