MLB: What to watch on July 7, 2026

• 07 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

This is a pitching-first must-watch: Jacob Misiorowski’s overpowering stuff turns an ordinary Brewers–Cardinals matchup into today’s top betting/watchability ticket, even if St. Louis answers with a stopgap arm. Misiorowski’s pNERD (14.60) and the scouting reports line up — high-100s velocity, elite whiff rates, and true–front‑of‑the‑rotation results this season — so you’re buying strikeouts and short‑leverage drama when he’s on the bump.

The Cardinals’ starter listing has been fuzzy and some outlets flagged a possible bullpen plan, which increases unpredictability and mid‑game managerial chess if Svanson doesn’t get deep. Svanson’s visible track record this year has been uneven (high ERA/WHIP and control concerns), so his pNERD=0 here signals limited trusted profile data rather than guaranteed competence.

Team NERDs in the high 7s mean both clubs are young, entertaining and pitcher‑friendly; Milwaukee’s bullpen is a noted plus while St. Louis offsets that with above‑average defense, making this a low‑scoring, high‑leverage watch where one dominant Misiorowski outing or a shaky Svanson stretch decides everything.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Matt Svanson, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

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Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

This is legitimately a watchable game: a high gNERD (14.58) driven by an elite opposing starter and lineup-versus-rookie pitcher matchup, with a shaky Braves bullpen that raises late-inning volatility. Paul Skenes’ enormous pNERD (10.36) reflects true swing-for-the-fences stuff—sub-100 xFIP-, mid-to-upper-90s velocity and strong underlying peripherals—so when he’s right this is a strikeout-heavy, fast-paced duel; when he’s off it can turn into a run-fest (he allowed a career-high eight runs in his last outing and will be looking to rebound). Hurston Waldrep’s pNERD of 0 means small-sample/no-data starter usage—he’s a recent call-up with very limited MLB innings, so expect a ground-ball, contact-oriented outing and an early hook if things go south. The Pirates’ tNERD is stronger thanks to punchy batting runs and plus baserunning, while Atlanta’s bullpen runs metric flags late-game drama; combine that with Skenes’ ceiling and a rookie’s unpredictability and you get a game that’s above today’s average gNERD (11.66) and worth tuning into.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Pittsburgh Pirates

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Worth a look because Boston’s rookie lefty is swinging between dominance and disaster while Chicago’s lineup upgrades make this one of the better offensive matchups on paper. Payton Tolle’s high pNERD (7.90) lines up with genuine swing-and-miss upside and a recent 7‑inning, one‑hit shutdown that suggests true quality, though he was rocked a few starts later — that volatility is the core drama here. The White Sox carry the stronger team NERD (8.50) thanks to a young, surprisingly productive offense and cheap payroll that boosts their run-scoring profile; that batting edge is why the game NERD sits a healthy 12.80 above the historical mean. Noah Schultz’s lower pNERD (3.33) and elevated xFIP- mark him as hittable despite good velocity; his big-league debut and a handful of decent one-off starts show upside but also inconsistency and positive luck that could regress. In short: watch for Tolle’s peaks (plus tempo/velocity) meeting a White Sox lineup that should force him to prove it — a contest that promises actionable moments more than steady, low-event innings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Chicago White Sox

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

This is worth a look mostly because the pitchers promise a duel even if one lineup won’t provide much fireworks. Jacob deGrom’s ace-level profile (pNERD 10.79) against José Soriano’s surprise strong season (pNERD 7.47) lifts the game’s gNERD to 12.53 despite an anemic Angels club. deGrom has had some early-season availability drama — he was scratched with neck stiffness earlier in the year — but when on, his underlying stuff (elite xFIP- and swing‑and‑miss marks) makes him the main attraction. Soriano’s resurgence — mid‑90s-plus velo and improving strikeout results — explains his solid pNERD and gives the Angels at least one reliable arm to watch. The Angels’ team NERD is depressingly low (1.17) — poor batting and defense trim the game’s upside — and they’ve been scuffling for runs lately. The Rangers’ higher tNERD and a large positive luck component suggest they’re due for better outcomes, which matters for late‑game tension. Taken together, this is a pitcher‑driven telecast: prioritize it if you like elite stuff and sequencing, skip it if you want offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Watch this for the pitching contrast: a high-upside lefty with tidy peripherals (Andrew Alvarez) against an electric-but-uneven newcomer (Tatsuya Imai), with Washington’s offense likely to keep things interesting while its bullpen makes the outcome less certain. The gNERD (12.51) lands above today’s game average and the long-run medians, driven by a stout Nationals tNERD (8.32) — they pair elite barrel and baserunning numbers with real run creation — while Houston’s team profile is much flatter. Andrew Alvarez’s underlying stuff and recent bulk outings (multiple six‑K performances and very strong xFIP signals) explain his high pNERD and the sense he can eat innings and miss bats. Tatsuya Imai is punch‑out prone and fascinating to watch — he’s shown double‑digit K upside in starts but also short, frustrating outings and a bloated ERA so far, which makes him a boom/bust viewing proposition. The game touts clear watchability: expect strikeouts, matchup swings, and late‑inning suspense because Washington’s bullpen has been a real storyline (and roster churn), which raises the entertainment stakes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Houston Astros

Washington Nationals

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

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Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Watch this one if you like a quietly asymmetric matchup: Miami’s lineup, baserunning, and bullpen give the game juice, and Max Meyer’s above-average stuff makes the pitching side interesting — Seattle’s low team NERD and a TBD starter keep this from being must-see. The gNERD of 12.33 sits above today’s game average, driven by Miami’s hefty tNERD (9.53) — they’re a young, cheap club scoring through speed and a stout bullpen — while Seattle’s -21 fielding runs and weaker tNERD (3.89) mute the spectacle. Meyer’s pNERD (6.23) reflects real underlying quality (strong xFIP- and velo in his profile), so he’s the main reason to tune in; the Mariners’ starter reading as “TBD” (pNERD 0) raises the odds of an unpredictable contest. Miami’s home form and matchup narratives add context, and both teams’ positive “Luck” figures suggest some regression is possible, so expect a game where the Marlins control run-creation and Meyer keeps it competitive — exactly the sort of contest that matters more to fans who prefer process and matchup intrigue than fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Miami Marlins

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

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Athletics @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This is a Tarik Skubal show unless the Athletics somehow manufacture offense — his enormous pNERD (12.40) and elite swing‑and‑miss profile make this the single best reason to tune in, while J.T. Ginn’s lower pNERD suggests fewer fireworks from the other dugout. The gNERD of 12.13 sits a touch above today’s mean, driven almost entirely by Skubal’s dominance (exceptional xFIP-, strike rate and velocity in the NERD components) and the Tigers’ decent broadcast appeal; Oakland’s tNERD is suppressed by very poor defensive runs and bland broadcast ratings, which lowers baseline watchability. Skubal ripped through June with a huge K:BB gap and was explicitly noted as the Tigers’ midseason rebirth, so expect high strikeout upside and pitch‑count management. Ginn has shown he can eat innings but with control hiccups (a start where he issued five walks was noted), so the fun depends on whether Detroit turns Skubal’s miss‑stuff into quick outs or a short leash. Both teams show positive “luck” in the inputs (so underlying performance may be better than recent results), but this game’s watchability really hinges on Skubal’s arsenal and whether the A’s can overcome their defense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Athletics

Detroit Tigers

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

A decent watch: gNERD 12.04 sits a notch above today's average and promises an interesting contrast — a depth lefty (called up as a 27th-man) taking the mound against a Cardinals club that grades out as a strong defensive, younger team. This is the kind of game where matchups and bullpen work matter more than ace-versus-ace fireworks.

Robert Gasser’s appearance is a classic spot-start storyline — he was recently recalled as the 27th man for Milwaukee’s doubleheader, so expect a modestly intriguing rookie/depth performance rather than dominance. The Cardinals haven’t locked in a Game 2 starter, so the opponent’s pNERD is listed as TBD in the data and previews flagged the open slot; that unpredictability nudges watchability upward. On team balance: Milwaukee’s high tNERD leans on a lively bullpen and youth, while St. Louis brings above-average fielding runs — a contest shaped by late-inning relief and defensive plays rather than overpowering pitching. If you like spot-start intrigue and bullpen chess, this one’s worth tuning into; if you need big-name arms or heavy offensive certainty, it’s lower priority.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

This is an above‑average watch: a solid gNERD (11.81) driven by a punchy Cubs team profile and a high‑pNERD veteran in Matthew Boyd, plus a storyline — Camden Yards’ hitter‑friendly park and some Orioles bullpen attrition — that tilts toward action. The Cubs’ tNERD (8.27) is buoyed by excellent defense and strong broadcast appeal while the O’s sit below average (tNERD 4.22), making the game a matchup of a tidy, well‑rounded Chicagoland club against an Orioles roster that can crack bats but has bullpen questions; Baltimore did place closer Ryan Helsley on the injured list recently. Matthew Boyd’s pNERD (7.98) stands out: his underlying stuff (xFIP‑ 82) and strike‑profile suggest better results than his surface numbers, and a big positive “luck” component implies he’s been a bit unlucky and could outperform today. Shane Baz (pNERD 3.15) brings velocity and whiff upside but weaker swinging‑strike and pace metrics pull his rating down. In short: expect more action than a garden‑variety pitcher’s duel — watch for the Cubs’ plate discipline and whether Boyd finally gets the positive regression his profile implies.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Baltimore Orioles

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

If you want tidy contrast and a little novelty, this is your game: the Yankees’ lineup metrics scream danger while Tampa Bay’s lefty has quietly been doing the opposite of loud, and Will Warren’s first career start at Tropicana adds a small, watchable wrinkle. The gNERD of 11.46 sits a hair below today’s game average but above the long-run mean, and that split personality drives the watchability—New York’s very high tNERD (9.38) is carried by an elite barrel rate and aggressive baserunning, while the Rays’ low tNERD (3.15) reflects a lack of power and subpar defense; that creates a clear mismatch and the potential for either a short, decisive game or a pitchers’ duel that still rewards the Yankees’ launch-angle approach. Will Warren’s pNERD is modest (4.63), but he’s making his first Trop start and should challenge the Rays with strikeout upside; Ian Seymour (pNERD 5.75) has been the steadier arm recently, piling up strong peripherals and a nice run since June 8. The Yankees are also missing big bats, which tempers expectations for a fireworks show but makes every XBH more consequential.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

This is essentially a mismatch in search of drama: the Dodgers’ thunderous lineup and a hot young lefty should make this more watchable than the raw gNERD (10.76) implies, while the Rockies bring little offensive punch and an erratic, strangely unlucky Michael Lorenzen. Justin Wrobleski enters with an impressive season (double-digit wins, sub-3.00 ERA and strong WHIP) and the kind of short, efficient pace and youth that lift his pNERD; he’s the reason the Dodgers’ side actually promises action rather than slog. Lorenzen’s surface numbers are awful this year, but his “luck” component is unusually large, suggesting he’s underperforming his peripherals and could bounce back in length or efficiency — still, his swinging-strike and strike% signals are weak, so don’t expect dominant innings. Team-wise this is a clear Dodgers tilt: elite offense, strong defense and bullpen make LA high-tNERD (10.60), while Colorado’s offense/fielding profile is low and unlikely to produce a tense pitch-for-pitch duel. In short: watch for Wrobleski vs. lineup fireworks and a possible Lorenzen rebound; it’s more entertaining for Dodger-watchers than neutral viewers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Not a guaranteed fireworks show, but worth tuning in if you like pitcher-driven chess: Spencer Miles is the real draw and Trevor McDonald’s recent bounce-back makes this a matchup with upside. The gNERD of 10.47 lands almost exactly at the historical median and below today’s slate average, so this isn’t a “must” on paper, but the pitching components tilt it toward watchability because Miles posts a high pNERD (8.77) thanks to an excellent xFIP- (73) and above-average velocity, and he’s been talked about as a breakout, Rule‑5–born arm the Jays are leaning on. McDonald (pNERD 5.69) is fresher on recent results — a quality outing against Arizona suggests he’s turning a rough patch around — which raises the chance of a low‑scoring, tense game rather than a slugfest. Team metrics pull the opposite way: Toronto’s offense grades poorly (low barrel rate and batting runs) while San Francisco’s unusually large “luck” number implies the Giants could start scoring closer to expectation. Taken together, watch if you value intriguing pitching matchups and narrative (rookie emergence + veteran rebound); skip if you insist on everyday offensive fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Toronto Blue Jays

San Francisco Giants

Spencer Miles, Toronto Blue Jays

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

This is a middle-of-the-road watch: a tidy NERD average that promises a contrast more than fireworks — Taj Bradley's hard stuff against Joey Cantillo's craft — but not an automatic must-see. The gNERD (10.15) sits almost exactly at the historical mean, driven by a clear split: Minnesota’s starter (Bradley, pNERD 6.06) brings above-average velocity and swing‑and‑miss upside — he struck out 11 in a July 1 outing and has flashed true‑fire heat since joining the Twins — while Cantillo (pNERD 4.18) profiles as the lower-velo, contact‑smoothing lefty. Cleveland’s stronger tNERD (6.87) reflects good fielding, baserunning and a surprisingly useful bullpen, even as the club’s offense has been a known weak spot and is managing injuries that could sap run support. Expect an entertaining matchup if you like the pitcher-versus-pitcher chess match: Bradley’s velo creates strikeout potential and high-leverage swings, while Cantillo forces contact that could let Cleveland’s defense and bullpen decide the game. In short: solid pick for fans who prefer strategic pitching contrasts over slugfest drama.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

Wheeler’s presence makes this feel like a better game than the gNERD (9.44) suggests — his matchup against a hittable Andrew Abbott is the main draw, not the teams’ overall profiles. The score sits a touch below both the historical mean (10.11) and today’s average, so don’t expect a guaranteed fireworks night.

Wheeler’s high pNERD (7.61) is built on legitimately strong peripherals — elite xFIP- and above-average velo — and he’s been a headline story this season as he’s returned from thoracic‑outlet surgery and pushed back against early hooks, so there’s narrative juice in his next turn. Abbott’s pNERD (2.00) and elevated xFIP- suggest he’s more hittable than dominant; his season lines show a competent but beatable starter, which sets up a classic one‑good‑arm vs. one‑makeable‑target script.

Team-wise, the Phillies contribute more to watchability with baserunning and broadcast draw, while the Reds’ low tNERD (3.32) hides a decent barrel rate that could spoil Wheeler’s day — so this is worth tuning into if you want process and matchup intrigue, not an all‑day spectacle.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

If you’re picking a must-see game, this isn’t it: a gNERD of 8.41 sits below both today’s average (11.66) and the historical mean (10.11), and the unknown opponent (TBD, pNERD 0) steals a lot of the drama. Seth Lugo’s start gives the game a sliver of narrative — he’s listed as the Royals’ probable starter and is pitching against his old club — but his pNERD (3.74) and the underlying peripherals are middling: an xFIP- a touch worse than average, almost no swing-and-miss, below-average velocity, and a pace that’s genuinely quick (a rare positive). Lugo also only recently returned from a concussion IL stint after being hit by a line drive, so there’s a storyline but not necessarily peak performance expectation. The Mets’ tangible watchability comes more from their team context than the starting duel: their bullpen and star hitters (Juan Soto is in the lineup) supply some upside in late innings, which helps the modest tNERD (4.93) look better. In short: a light-to-moderate watch for narrative reasons, not for fireworks from the mound.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Kansas City Royals

New York Mets

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

A low-drama pitching duel: gNERD 7.82 sits clearly below both the historical mean (10.11) and today’s average (11.66), and that’s mostly because both starters’ pNERD profiles flag declining swing-and-miss and shaky peripherals. Zac Gallen (pNERD 2.69) has lost the strikeout juice that once defined him — his 2026 surface numbers look ugly and multiple previews note his strikeout rate has cratered this season. Germán Márquez (pNERD 0.17) is the more interesting subplot only because he’s just returning from the 15-day injured list, so there’s a “can he shake off rust?” angle to his low-trajectory outing. The Padres’ higher tNERD (8.48) compensates a bit — driven by bullpen and broadcast metrics and above-average baserunning/fielding components in the input — but the matchup still leans toward limited high-leverage strikeout battles; expect contact, early offense, and bullpen activity if either starter falters. The local storyline to watch is Márquez’s health and whether Gallen can rediscover the missing whiffs; otherwise this is a low-priority watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Germán Márquez, San Diego Padres

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