MLB: What to watch on July 9, 2026

• 09 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Watch this one because the gNERD (14.20) puts it at the top of today’s slate and it’s driven by a showdown between a high-floor rookie arm coming off a brief IL stint and two pretty lively lineups. Logan Henderson is the clearest reason to tune in: his pNERD (9.53) reflects a sub-80 xFIP-, excellent strike rate and ability to miss bats in the profile data, and he’s just come off a successful Triple‑A rehab outing after a back strain, so there’s upside and storyline in one package. Andre Pallante (pNERD 4.14) has been the more conventional, steady Cardinals starter — mid-90s velocity and a strong first half — but his lower whiff profile gives Henderson’s underlying metrics a real chance to matter. Both teams carry above-average tNERDs (Brewers 7.61, Cardinals 7.12): Milwaukee’s bullpen and youth tilt boost watchability, while St. Louis’s defense and overall balance keep the game from being a one-sided snooze. In short: high gNERD, a compelling returning-rookie narrative, and contrast in batted-ball/whiff profiles make this one worth prioritizing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

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Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

High watchability: Bryce Miller’s elite strike-profile makes this a “must-glance” pitching duel, and Janson Junk’s return from the IL adds a storyline twist that could tilt things toward volatility. The gNERD (14.01) is well above both the historic mean and today’s average, driven by a huge pNERD gap—Miller (10.59) versus Junk (3.78)—and a Marlins club tNERD (9.98) that’s doing damage on the bases and in relief while the Mariners’ team profile (tNERD 3.67) is hurt by poor defense. Miller’s recent run—seven scoreless and multiple starts with two or fewer runs—explains his high xFIP-, strike rate and velo spike. Junk’s comeback from a wrist/leg issue and rehab outings make this his first true test back; his lower swing‑and‑miss numbers but positive “luck” suggest upside if he’s sharp. In short: watch for Miller’s swing-and-miss arsenal and whether Junk’s return (plus a lively Marlins offense and bullpen) produces the sort of contrast that creates high-leverage, watchable innings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Miami Marlins

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

Watch this if you want a high-upside pitching duel tilted toward the visitor: Jesús Luzardo’s gaudy pNERD and recent surge make him the main attraction, while Brady Singer’s low pNERD and home/road splits suggest a bumpy ride. Luzardo’s 10.86 pNERD is supported by elite underlying stuff (xFIP-, swing-and-miss, plus velocity and a quick pace) and a positive “luck” component that actually implies his peripherals look strong enough that better results should follow; he was also named to his first All‑Star team and has been excellent over his last several turns. Singer’s 3.33 pNERD reflects ordinary peripherals and a pronounced home/road split that makes him less intimidating away from Great American; that split is worth leaning on when projecting offense. The Phillies’ higher tNERD and deeper lineup contrast with a Reds club hampered by roster/injury churn and bullpen questions, while Philly has shuffled relievers recently (Keller activated; Trivino to the IL). Overall gNERD (11.87) sits above today’s mean, meaning this is a legitimately watchable game for hitters-versus-ace dynamics rather than a low-drama pitcher’s duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:10a

Summary

If you want a game where a legitimately strong starter (Drew Rasmussen) meets a Yankees lineup that still profiles as dangerous, this is worth tuning into; if you prefer ace-on-ace duels, temper expectations—Paul Blackburn is a bullpen-ish arm turned starter here. Rasmussen’s profile (excellent strikeout totals and demonstrably tough results against New York) is the real draw and explains his high pNERD; he’s been dominant this year and owns a strong track record vs. the Yankees. The Yankees’ tNERD is lofty because of high barrel rate and aggressive baserunning, so watch for high-leverage offensive moments even if they’re missing top pieces via injury. Tampa Bay’s lower tNERD reflects limited power and defensive drag, but their positive “luck” suggests upside in run production that could flip a tight game. Blackburn’s modest pNERD and his usual relief profile mean the bullpen will be a storyline; expect managerial tinkering and short outings that can create late-inning drama. Overall gNERD 11.77 sits above both the historical mean and today’s average, so this is a solid, watchable contest mainly because Rasmussen should keep it competitive.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Paul Blackburn, New York Yankees

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

This is a quietly watchable pitching matchup that leans toward tidy and strategic rather than sensational: gNERD 11.23 sits a touch above today's average, driven more by team matchups than a fireworks duel. The Pirates' higher tNERD (7.49) reflects a real offensive floor—strong batting runs and aggressive baserunning—while the Braves bring an elite bullpen that shapes late-inning intrigue, so expect a game decided by who gets to its pen first. Mitch Keller (pNERD 3.30) has stumbled with command and a rough recent stretch, making him the weaker pitching link; that vulnerability is reflected in previews and recent game writeups. Bryce Elder (pNERD 5.26) is the steadier hand on paper despite a recent ugly start; his season-level peripherals and brisk 16.6s pace suggest efficient innings and a faster game tempo. If you prefer smartly-managed contests where lineup construction and bullpen leverage matter more than strikeout duels, this is worth prioritizing; if you crave high-strikeout, high-velocity drama, it’s lower on the list.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 10:40a

Summary

Pitchers make this one worth a glance: Gavin Williams is a true watchability engine (high pNERD), while Bailey Ober’s return from the IL makes him a live question mark rather than a draw. The game’s gNERD (11.22) sits a touch above today’s average, driven mostly by Williams’ boom-and-bust upside and Cleveland’s marginally interesting team profile. Williams pairs above-average velocity and a strong strikeout profile (and a sub‑100 xFIP-) with a high pNERD, so when he’s on he creates strikeout-heavy, fast-moving innings that reward viewers. Minnesota’s Ober, making his first start after right‑elbow inflammation and a short rehab stint, lowers the pitching intrigue; his underlying numbers and reduced velo argue for a hittable outing. Offensively, Cleveland’s overall lack of pop softens the matchup despite solid fielding and bullpen depth in the tNERD; the Twins carry better run production but thin defense, which could keep the scoreboard interesting in a sloppy, offense-meets-misshapen-pitching way. In short: watch for Williams’ strikeouts and to see whether Ober’s return is vintage stuff or merely a rehab cameo.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

A quietly compelling mound matchup: Nathan Eovaldi’s genuine swing‑and‑miss profile against a rejuvenated Reid Detmers makes this more watchable than the Angels’ meek team numbers suggest. The gNERD (10.91) is a touch above today’s average, but that comes almost entirely from pitchers — Eovaldi’s elite xFIP- and SwStr% and Detmers’ improving peripherals promise a low‑noise, duel‑style game rather than a slugfest. Eovaldi, despite a recent scratch earlier in the month for left‑side tightness, is listed to start and brings clear strikeout upside; his season peripherals back that up. Detmers has shown signs of sharper control in recent turns, and a possible return of Mike Trout next week (an actual storyline for the Angels) adds a hair of intrigue to an otherwise thin LA lineup. The Rangers’ stronger tNERD and a big positive team “luck” component suggest they’ve been underperforming and might pull away if Eovaldi doesn’t dominate; conversely, the Angels’ brutal fielding and baserunning metrics make them a fragile offense. If you prefer pitcher duels and process‑driven matchups, this one’s worth tuning to; if you want fireworks, look elsewhere.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

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Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Worth tuning in if you like the little dramas of pitching bounce-backs and a quietly impressive defense — the gNERD sits almost dead-average, but an elite Cubs tNERD and a big “luck” lift on David Peterson make this more interesting than the raw scoreboard suggests. The Cleveland-ish odds: Chicago’s team NERD (8.26) is being driven by excellent fielding and decent offense while Baltimore’s lower tNERD (4.27) leaves more of the game’s entertainment on the visitors’ shoulders; that defensive gap plus above-average broadcast appeal nudges watchability upward. David Peterson’s pNERD is the better of the two and his recent move to the Cubs (and a noted uptick in velocity/ground-ball profile) plus a very large positive “luck” component imply he’s due to outperform recent results — a classic bounce-back storyline. Trevor Rogers has flash — including a one-hit outing and a short string of stingy starts — but his underlying metrics are weaker, which keeps his pNERD modest and the contest from becoming must-see pitching. Recent games have shown this pairing can be offensively lively (a 9–7 slugfest the night before), so expect a mix of solid defense, a pitcher’s narrative, and enough bats to keep it watchable without promising a classic.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Baltimore Orioles

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

A solid, watchable game mostly because the White Sox lineup and team profile promise action — the pitching matchup, by contrast, is short on fireworks. Sandoval’s start is the narrative: he’s making his Red Sox debut after a long injury/Tommy John layoff and recent rehab outings, so there’s novelty and uncertainty to chew on.

gNERD sits at 10.30 (right around the middle of historical games and a hair below today’s mean), driven by a high White Sox tNERD (8.25) — their younger roster and above-average batted‑ball/“barrel” profile give this game the best shot at offense. Anthony Kay’s pNERD (1.12) and his peripherals (high xFIP‑, low swing‑strike and poor strike%) suggest he’s vulnerable to lengthier innings against a barreling lineup; he’s been an OK, inconsistent mid‑rotation piece this year.

Bottom line: watch for Sandoval’s first meaningful outing (storyline value) and the White Sox’s offensive chops; don’t expect a classic pitchers’ duel — this is a game for fans who like matchup wrinkles and lineup-driven entertainment rather than high‑octane strikeout pitching.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Chicago White Sox

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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Athletics @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Worth tuning in if you care about watching a high-upside young arm; otherwise this one sits a touch below average for pure entertainment. Jack Perkins’ profile (explosive velocity, above-average pNERD and glaring positive “luck” that suggests he’s been unlucky and may soon outperform results) is the main draw, while Framber Valdez is a veteran lefty who’s been solid but unspectacular lately and profiles as the less strike‑generating half of the matchup.

The teams’ tNERD marks are modest, so don’t expect an offensive fireworks show — Detroit and Oakland both underwhelm in the aggregated team metrics used here — but storylines nudge interest: Valdez remains a high-profile signing who has had ups and downs (and a prior suspension in May), and the A’s were dealing with catcher Shea Langeliers’ thumb issue this week, which can sap lineup continuity.

Bottom line: gNERD 9.67 places this below today’s mean, but Perkins’ raw stuff and the matchup contrast give pitchers‑and‑prospect watchers a decent reason to watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Athletics

Detroit Tigers

Jack Perkins, Athletics

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets, 10:10a

Summary

Low-key watchable: two veteran southpaws, some underlying offence pop, and a bullpen mismatch make this a “worth-a-flip-on” game rather than must-see theater. Michael Wacha brings recent steadiness and an All‑Star nod into a Royals staff with a depleted, overworked bullpen, which undercuts late‑inning intrigue; he’s shown the ability to go deep recently but has also given up loud contact in spots. Sean Manaea’s pNERD edge and huge positive luck suggest he’s been unlucky and could rebound, and the Mets have been stretching him out from a bulk/long‑relief role back into the rotation—so he’s an interesting volatile piece to watch early in the game. Analytically, both teams’ barrel rates are decent while batting runs are poor, so this is a matchup where power (few barrels) could decide a low-to-moderate scoring contest; the Mets’ bullpen strength versus KC’s weakness is the single biggest game-shaping factor. Expect a fairly quick pace and pitcher-led game: entertaining if you like matchup chess and late‑inning leverage swings, less so if you’re chasing fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Kansas City Royals

New York Mets

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Low-sizzle pitching on paper, but the Padres’ team-side profile and Griffin Canning’s return-from-injury storyline make this a mildly watchable broadcast rather than a skip. Merrill Kelly and Griffin Canning both carry very low pNERD marks (1.39 and 2.07), which matches the component breakdown: high xFIP- penalties, almost no swing‑and‑miss uplift, and rough strike‑rate contributions — so don’t expect a lot of swing‑and‑miss entertainment. The gNERD of 8.12 is below the day’s average (10.77), and the game’s watchability is driven almost entirely by team factors: the Padres’ tNERD is a stout 8.79 (big bullpen run support, plus strong broadcaster ratings), while Arizona’s 4.00 signals a quieter offensive profile. Kelly brings the veteran angle after an earlier IL stint this year, and Canning’s recent comeback work and bulk relief usage add a narrative layer that could matter if he’s sharper than the peripherals suggest. If you prize matchup intrigue and a good broadcast, tune in; if you want high‑leverage strikeouts and volatile outcomes, this ranks low on the must‑watch list.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Griffin Canning, San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Short version: don’t expect fireworks — this is the slate’s lowest gNERD and smells like background baseball, although Ryan Feltner’s strikeout upside and the Giants’ weirdly positive “luck” offer a sliver of intrigue. Feltner’s start is the clearest reason to tune in: he punched out nine and worked six innings in a recent outing, showing the swing-and-miss that lifts his modest pNERD above the Rockies’ drab offense. The teams themselves are underwhelming—Colorado’s lineup metrics are deep in negative territory while San Francisco is only marginally better—so the game’s low tNERD and 7.21 gNERD reflect a probable low-run, low-drama affair. The Giants’ roster context is worth a footnote: their game preview still shows the home team’s starter situation unclear, which suppresses predictability (and thus watchability) even as their big positive “luck” number suggests they may start scoring closer to expectation soon. In short: one pitcher with pop versus two below-average offenses and an unknown opposing arm—background game with a single watchable subplot.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

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