MLB: What to watch on July 12, 2026

• 12 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

This is the day’s best watchability bet by a comfortable margin: a 15.85 gNERD game pairing two ace-level arms, even if the offenses arrive mostly as supporting actors. Tarik Skubal’s 12.63 pNERD is the main attraction, with Zack Wheeler’s 8.41 making this less “pitching duel” than “two very expensive ways to avoid contact.”

Skubal’s 59 xFIP-, 96.8-mph velocity, and elite swinging-strike and strike rates explain why his score sits near the top of the historical pitcher distribution. He has also struck out nine in three straight starts, though his recent outing lasted only five innings after elbow surgery earlier this season. Wheeler brings a 68 xFIP- and 95.2-mph fastball, plus fresh irritation over being snubbed for the All-Star team; he answered with 14 strikeouts over seven innings in his last start.

The teams split the first two games, with Philadelphia ending Detroit’s six-game winning streak Saturday, so this is a genuine rubber match rather than ceremonial baseball. Detroit’s 1.00 barrel-rate component helps, while Philadelphia’s strong baserunning and bullpen scores add mischief. The Tigers’ positive luck component hints at some overperformance, but the arms make this one worth prioritizing regardless.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Detroit Tigers

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

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New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals, 10:35a

Summary

This is one of the day’s better watchability bets: a 14.57 gNERD score ranks comfortably above the historical 75th percentile, with enough offensive firepower and bullpen instability to keep the game from becoming a polite pitcher’s duel. Cade Cavalli’s stronger pNERD gives Washington the more compelling starter, while New York supplies the deeper overall entertainment package.

The Yankees’ 9.43 tNERD is powered by an excellent 9.8% barrel rate, strong baserunning, and a bullpen that grades well by these measures. Their recent form is useful context rather than “momentum”: New York has won the first two games of the series, including a 5–3 comeback capped by Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s two-run homer and a 4–2 win.

Washington’s 8.17 tNERD reflects lively bats and aggressive running, but the bullpen’s -2.31 component is the obvious trapdoor; the Nationals have already blown 26 saves. Cavalli rates well on xFIP-, velocity, and strike throwing, and recently posted a career-best 13 strikeouts against Boston. Warren is steadier than spectacular, with a 93 xFIP- and 4.72 pNERD. The main concern is Cavalli’s 21.5-second pace—baseball’s answer to loading screens.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Washington Nationals

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:15a

Summary

This is one of the day’s better bets: Milwaukee and Pittsburgh bring strong team profiles, while Paul Skenes supplies the marquee arm and a little recent turbulence. At 14.57, the game sits just below the historical top-five-percent gNERD threshold and well above today’s 11.11 average.

Skenes’ 9.91 pNERD is the main attraction, driven by a 77 xFIP-, 97-mph velocity, and the kind of strikeout threat that makes every at-bat feel like a minor engineering problem. He is not entirely invulnerable, though: Philadelphia tagged him for eight runs—seven earned—in four innings earlier this month, despite his otherwise strong season line of a 3.58 ERA, 123 strikeouts, and 1.04 WHIP.

The Pirates also arrive having won both games of the preceding doubleheader, including a 3–2 finale, and are positioned to sweep the series. Milwaukee counters with an excellent bullpen component (1.07) and strong baserunning, while Pittsburgh’s 1.49 batting component suggests more than polite resistance. Gasser’s 3.80 pNERD and 109 xFIP- make him the supporting act, but the matchup remains highly watchable—especially if Pittsburgh’s fielding (-1.15) remembers it is supposed to help.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

This is a strong watchability play, largely because the Dodgers bring the day’s best team profile while Arizona supplies just enough volatility to make the outcome less ceremonial. The catch: Mitch Bratt’s statistical blank slate makes the pitching matchup partly a scouting expedition.

Los Angeles’ 13.17 gNERD ranks well above today’s 11.11 average and comfortably above the historical 75th-percentile mark of 12.00. The Dodgers’ 10.29 tNERD is the main engine: elite batting runs, barrels, fielding, and bullpen value, even if their baserunning remains more “please hold my beer” than efficient. Arizona’s 4.18 is less inviting, dragged down by -43.3 batting runs and a modest barrel rate, though its defense grades well.

The web adds some useful friction. The D-backs opened the series with consecutive nine-run performances, while Los Angeles entered the finale with a 12½-game division lead—dominant, but apparently not immune to being pestered. Bratt is the novelty: Arizona’s No. 14 prospect recently debuted after posting a 2.84 ERA, 42 strikeouts, and 12 walks in 44⅓ Triple-A innings. Sheehan’s 6.87 pNERD, driven by swing-and-miss ability, gives the Dodgers the clearer pitching edge. The mystery makes this worth watching; the mismatch keeps it from being essential.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

This is a solid watchability play: a 12.32 gNERD ranks above today’s 11.11 average and just above the historical 75th percentile. The pitchers are merely decent, but Miami’s unusually strong team profile gives this game some lift.

The Marlins’ 10.11 tNERD is the main attraction, driven by excellent baserunning, a strong bullpen, youth, and a substantial positive luck component that suggests they have underperformed their underlying numbers. Cleveland is less imposing offensively—its batting-runs and barrel-rate components are both negative—but its speed, defense, bullpen, and bargain-basement payroll keep the team score respectable.

The web adds some useful seasoning: Cleveland arrives after a three-game winning streak and a five-run eighth-inning comeback that secured a series over Seattle, while Miami entered the matchup 52–42 and ranked 12th in MLB in runs scored.

Tyler Phillips is the more interesting starter: he recently threw a season-best 7⅓ innings, retiring 18 of his final 21 hitters after an early homer. Joey Cantillo’s 4.27 pNERD is slightly better than Phillips’ 3.83, but neither profile screams ace. Expect competent pitching, active baserunning, and a decent chance the bullpen becomes the evening’s main character.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Miami Marlins

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

This is a reasonably appealing game, largely because Boston’s rookie Payton Tolle supplies the known quantity while New York offers the mystery box labeled Zach Thornton. The 11.92 gNERD ranks above the historical median and sits comfortably within today’s upper half, though it is not quite must-watch territory.

Tolle’s 7.98 pNERD is doing most of the heavy lifting: his 95.7-mph velocity, excellent strike rate, youth, and compact 17.8-second pace point toward a pitcher who can keep the game moving while missing enough bats to make the Mets earn their outs. The recent evidence is encouraging but not spotless: he threw seven one-hit, scoreless innings against the Yankees, then followed a six-run Nationals disaster with six scoreless innings against the White Sox.

Thornton’s zero pNERD means the model has no usable statistical profile, not that he is secretly a pumpkin with a changeup. He did strike out seven Phillies recently, and his minor-league track record featured three or fewer earned runs in 19 of 21 starts since last season. Boston’s 8-2 stretch and Saturday’s 4-0 win add some edge, while the Mets’ 4-6 slide and injuries to Tylor Megill and Trevor Story make New York look less polished.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Boston Red Sox

New York Mets

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

Zach Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

This is a solid watch, though not quite a clear-your-schedule affair: Chicago brings the stronger overall profile, while Matthew Boyd supplies the best reason to tune in. The matchup sits just above average—11.61 gNERD versus 11.11 across today’s games—but the appeal is more “good ingredients” than guaranteed feast.

Boyd’s 8.07 pNERD is comfortably above the historical 75th percentile, driven by an excellent 82 xFIP- and a hefty positive luck component that says his results have lagged his underlying skill. His return is also a storyline: he missed time after meniscus surgery, then had a shoulder-soreness setback during his rehab.

Chicago’s 7.95 tNERD gets a major boost from elite fielding (+2.66) and strong batting runs (+1.37), though its bullpen (-1.44) remains an invitation to late-inning mischief. The Cubs enter 7-3 over their last 10 and already swept Cincinnati in their May series, while the Reds are 3-7 in their last 10. Abbott’s 2.67 pNERD—underpowered by a 112 xFIP- and modest whiff indicators—makes him the less compelling starter, despite a 5-5 record and 101 innings. Expect Chicago’s defense and Boyd’s sharper underlying profile to carry the entertainment burden.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

This is a mildly above-average watchability play, with St. Louis offering the better pitching hook and Atlanta supplying the more precarious one. Dustin May’s 6.83 pNERD gives the Cardinals a genuine advantage, while JR Ritchie’s 2.32 suggests the game’s entertainment may depend on how quickly Atlanta’s bullpen appears.

May’s 88 xFIP- and 96.8-mph velocity are the main attractions, though his recent plot has included a skipped start for lower-back tightness and an ankle bruise after a liner; he did return with an encouraging outing and seven strikeouts. Ritchie, a 23-year-old still auditioning for a rotation job after Tommy John surgery, has shown promise—including a seven-strikeout game—but his 116 xFIP- and 0.1% swinging-strike rate are less promising than the biography.

The teams’ tNERD scores are healthy: St. Louis leads at 7.02, Atlanta sits at 6.43, and both exceed today’s 5.64 average. The Cardinals are seeking their first series sweep in more than a month, while Atlanta arrives amid a losing streak and a substantial injury list. At 11.30, the gNERD is above the historical median but hardly a must-see emergency.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals

JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals

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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

This is a respectable watch, though more “interesting laboratory experiment” than essential viewing: Texas has the stronger overall profile, while Houston brings a pitcher-shaped question mark. MacKenzie Gore supplies the clearest reason to tune in; Cristian Javier supplies the suspense, mostly because his statistical file is currently a blank page.

The 10.30 gNERD sits just below the historical median of 10.10? Actually slightly above median, and below today’s 11.11 average, making this a middling game rather than a schedule-defining treasure. Texas’s 5.63 tNERD leads Houston’s 3.48, helped by a bullpen component of 0.51 and a huge 1.75 luck component—an indication the Rangers have underperformed their underlying numbers and may be due some improvement, not evidence of mystical momentum. The Rangers also enter after a 9-3 win over Houston, with Corey Seager among the notable lineup absences on the current injury report.

Gore’s 6.50 pNERD is comfortably above average, with a 93 xFIP-, 95.5-mph velocity score, and strong recent outing: eight one-run innings against Arizona before leaving a later start with left-lat tightness. Javier’s 0.00 pNERD reflects unavailable data, though his earlier shoulder issue and minor-league rehab make his effectiveness—and workload—the game’s chief variable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

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Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:40a

Summary

This is a respectable mid-tier watch, powered more by the starting pitchers than by either lineup’s promise of chaos. The Rays’ home-field edge and Ian Seymour’s recent strikeout binge make Tampa Bay the slightly more compelling side of a game that ranks below today’s average in overall gNERD.

The 10.29 gNERD sits near the historical median of 10.10 but below today’s 11.11 average, so this is not the day’s must-see jewel. Still, both starters clear today’s 5.52 pNERD average: Emerson Hancock checks in at 5.92, with a solid 90 xFIP- and 95.2-mph velocity, while Seymour’s 6.86 gets a boost from his strikeout and strike-rate components. Seymour is particularly worth monitoring after fanning a career-high 12 Yankees in 5⅓ innings on July 8, part of Tampa Bay’s back-to-back 17-strikeout performances.

The Rays also bring a 54-37 record and a reported 31-12 home mark, though their dreadful barrel-rate component (-2.15) keeps the offense from looking fully trustworthy. Seattle’s fielding (-1.36) and baserunning (-0.79) are less charming. Watch for competent pitching, not guaranteed fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

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Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

This is a decent pitching matchup wrapped in a fairly ordinary game: worth sampling, though not necessarily worth rearranging your furniture for. José Soriano and Taj Bradley provide the main attraction, while the supporting cast mostly specializes in making baseball harder than it needs to be.

Soriano’s 7.36 pNERD and Bradley’s 6.92 are both comfortably above the historical median, with matching 96.9-mph velocity and solid xFIP-based marks. Soriano recently shook off a 107.4-mph comebacker to throw five scoreless innings against Tampa Bay, while Bradley is still a subplot after returning from a right pectoral injury; in his second start back, Minnesota kept him on a short leash after four innings.

The broader matchup is less inspiring. The Angels’ tNERD is only 1.80, dragged down by poor fielding (-21.7 runs) and baserunning (-5.6), while Minnesota’s 2.98 gets a lift from 23.8 batting runs. The Twins have also won 10 of their last 13 against Los Angeles.

At 9.53, this gNERD sits below today’s 11.11 average but above the historical 25th percentile: respectable, pitcher-led, and unlikely to require emotional overtime.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Los Angeles Angels

Minnesota Twins

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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Athletics @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

This is a respectable watch, but hardly a baseball emergency: Chicago’s excellent team profile does most of the promotional work while the starting pitchers mostly file paperwork. The real hook is Noah Schultz’s return from a knee injury, not a marquee pitching duel.

The 8.58 gNERD sits below today’s 11.11 average and only slightly above the historical 25th percentile, so this is more “worth checking in on” than “cancel your plans.” Chicago’s 8.35 tNERD is the attraction: the White Sox pair solid batting and barrel marks with a bullpen worth trusting, while Oakland brings poor fielding, weak baserunning, and a bullpen component that drags the overall score down. The Athletics’ positive luck component suggests some improvement may be hiding underneath, though their -20 fielding runs remain a less charming form of entertainment.

J.T. Ginn’s 3.00 pNERD is merely serviceable, and his season already included an April shoulder-area stinger before a useful six-inning effort against the Yankees. Schultz, meanwhile, is the novelty: he returned from patellar tendinitis after multiple Triple-A rehab appearances, including a seven-strikeout outing, but his 2.40 pNERD and 130 xFIP- suggest rust may be on the menu.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Athletics

Chicago White Sox

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

This is a mildly lopsided watchability proposition: San Diego supplies the movement, while Toronto supplies Kevin Gausman and the hope that competence can be contagious. At 8.42, the game sits below today’s 11.11 average and closer to “pleasant diversion” than “cancel plans.”

Gausman’s 5.83 pNERD is the main reason to tune in. His 90 xFIP- and recent six-inning, strong-start performance suggest a legitimate chance to keep the Padres’ lineup from turning Petco into a small fireworks exhibition. Germán Márquez, meanwhile, owns just a 0.17 pNERD, dragged down by a 132 xFIP- and weak whiff and strike rates; his 94.5-mph velocity is the encouraging footnote in an otherwise ominous scouting report.

The Padres’ 8.64 tNERD does most of the entertainment work, especially through above-average baserunning, defense, and bullpen value. They also just won an 8–7 game behind Ty France’s go-ahead homer and two-RBI nights from Manny Machado and Sung-Mun Song, evening the series and suggesting this matchup need not be entirely allergic to late drama. Toronto’s 2.21 tNERD reflects poorer contact quality and baserunning, though its defense and bullpen could keep this from becoming a Márquez stress test with no payoff.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Toronto Blue Jays

San Diego Padres

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Germán Márquez, San Diego Padres

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Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

This is a low-priority watch with one useful hook: Baltimore’s bullpen situation may matter more than the advertised starting-pitcher matchup. At 7.10, the game is barely above today’s 7.08 floor and well below the historical median of 10.10.

The Orioles have already taken the first two games of the series, 5–3 and 6–1, while both teams sit at 4–6 over their last 10. Baltimore’s Ryan Helsley is again on the injured list with right-elbow discomfort, forcing a committee approach in the ninth; that matters against a Kansas City bullpen already worth -24.5 runs, one of the game’s largest negative components.

The starters offer competence rather than fireworks. Shane Baz brings 95.9-mph velocity and recently showed real upside with seven innings and nine strikeouts in a one-run outing, but his 108 xFIP- and modest 2.82 pNERD suggest the shine is intermittent. Seth Lugo’s 3.76 pNERD gets help from excellent pace, though his low velocity and weak swinging-strike profile are less thrilling; he is also returning from a concussion-IL stint after taking a 106.6-mph liner to the head.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Baltimore Orioles

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

This is one of the day’s least compelling games by the numbers, with a 7.08 gNERD score sitting at today’s floor. Still, Trevor McDonald offers a plausible reason not to change the channel immediately.

Colorado’s 1.76 tNERD is dragged down by poor batting runs, barrel rate, baserunning, and fielding; the Rockies look less like an offense than a collection of unresolved paperwork. San Francisco is better at 4.11, though its bullpen component is notably poor and its 1.93 luck score suggests the Giants have been underperforming their underlying profile and could improve. The Giants have won five of nine, and Heliot Ramos returned from a right quad strain with a homer and triple in a July 2 win over Arizona, while Matt Chapman went on the injured list with an abdominal strain.

McDonald’s 5.65 pNERD is the attraction: he recently threw six scoreless innings against Arizona after allowing 14 earned runs in 22 June innings, a tidy rebound with some volatility attached. Michael Lorenzen’s 2.63 pNERD, 111 xFIP-, and 1.00 luck component suggest a pitcher due for improvement, but not necessarily one who makes this appointment mandatory.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

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  MLB: What to watch on July 11, 2026