MLB: What to watch on July 21, 2026

• 21 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Los Angeles at Philadelphia is the best-scoring game on the board today, and it's got everything: a dominant ace fresh off surgery, a breakout lefty, and a Dodgers lineup nursing a hangover from getting torched the night before.

Zack Wheeler pairs a strong xFIP with excellent whiff rates, and his 8.75 pNERD ranks near the top of both today's and the historical pitcher pool. That's earned: Wheeler had thoracic outlet surgery last September, and his return this season has been nothing short of remarkable, posting a 2.13 ERA and 2.64 xERA in 15 starts with a 30.4-percent strikeout rate. He's been on an absolute tear lately, too — he blanked Detroit over six innings in his most recent outing, and has punched out double-digit batters in all three of his starts this month, totaling 34 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings. Wrobleski isn't chopped liver either, coming off his first All-Star Game where he struck out five in two innings, tying a Dodgers record shared with Don Drysdale and Fernando Valenzuela. The Dodgers' 9.47 tNERD is elite, built on strong batting runs, barrel rate, and a deep bullpen, while Philadelphia's tNERD leans on a lively broadcast crew and a Trea Turner–powered offense that just dropped 10 runs on LA on Monday. With a 15.01 gNERD, this sits well above both the historical mean (10.11) and today's average (10.69) — arguably the day's marquee watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia Phillies

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Good, I have enough to write the summary now.

Yankee Stadium hosts a fastball-vs-command puzzle box: Bubba Chandler's triple-digit heater is must-see, but you'll also see why he currently leads baseball in walks issued. This game rates a 12.58 gNERD, comfortably above the historical average of 10.11 and roughly in line with today's slate average of 10.69, driven almost entirely by two lively lineups rather than pitching artistry. The Yankees (8.77 tNERD) bring the majors' best AL slugging mark and a lineup led by Ben Rice's 29 home runs, while Pittsburgh (7.68 tNERD) counters with a surprisingly potent offense that's actually outscored New York by 63 runs this season despite the Yankees' better team ERA. Chandler leads all of baseball in walks issued and his 5.25 BB/9 is almost 100 points higher than the next pitcher, which explains his ugly 4.77 ERA despite a mid-90s-plus fastball that grades out as elite velocity in his pNERD profile (4.33). Will Warren (4.38 pNERD) is the steadier of the two, sporting a 7-4 record with a 4.03 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 98.1 innings, though his xFIP suggests he's actually pitched a bit better than his ERA shows. Expect fireworks, walks, and a scoreboard that won't sit still — this is watchable for the chaos, not the artistry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Yankees

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

A last-place team’s well-regarded rookie lefty against a division leader’s former farmhand who got dealt away in the same trade that just torched his old team — there’s a decent hook here even if the overall watchability is merely solid. Milwaukee (62-37, tops in the NL Central) rides a four-game winning streak into this one, and the Brewers rocked Freddy Peralta for seven runs in 5⅓ innings in Monday's series opener, with Andrew Vaughn and rookie Cooper Pratt going deep off him. Fittingly, Sproat was traded to Milwaukee in January along with Jett Williams in the deal that sent Peralta back to New York, and this marks his first start against his former squad. Sproat's pNERD (6.48) is buoyed by mid-90s velocity and a favorable luck reading, though his 24.7% strikeout rate is undercut by an 11.1% walk rate. Thornton gets a 0.00 pNERD for lack of data, but he's coming off seven scoreless innings against Boston, allowing two hits and two walks while throwing only 82 pitches — intriguing for a guy making just his fourth big-league start. The Brewers' tNERD (8.49) crushes New York's (4.13), pushing the gNERD to 12.05, comfortably above both the historic and today's averages.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Padres closing in on a season-defining series against a Braves team that just outslugged them into a series-opening loss, with Walker Buehler trying to avoid getting yanked from the rotation entirely — that's the appetizer here, even if the main course is more watchable on paper than in practice. Buehler carries a 4.81 pNERD, but that's propped up almost entirely by a hefty positive luck score after he's been torched for 20 runs and six homers over his last 11 innings; the underlying stuff (poor swinging-strike and strike rates) is genuinely shaky, and even his own manager admits he's "not as sharp as he was back in June." Reynaldo López, freshly returned from a bullpen stint, offers a tidier surface line but an even lower 2.69 pNERD once you look past the ERA. The pitching, in short, is not the draw. The teams are: both clubs post strong bullpen and fielding marks, and San Diego's 9.04 tNERD is comfortably above average for today's slate, pushing the 11.84 gNERD moderately above the historic median. Throw in Truist Park's hitter-friendly altitude and warm forecast, and this profiles as a game where the scoreboard, not the men on the mound, will do the entertaining.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Atlanta Braves

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

I'll proceed with what I've gathered, since further searches are being rate-limited this turn.A near-.500 AL Central scrap between two teams going in different directions, punctuated by a green Twins arm making his big-league stand against Cleveland's best pitching development story of the year. The Twins arrive on a three-game losing skid and sit under .500, while the Guardians have quietly built a roster that outperforms its outfield reputation.

Cleveland's tNERD (7.71) towers over Minnesota's (2.53), and the underlying stats back it up: the Guardians get value from youth, a cheap payroll, and a bullpen that's actually not "wait-hold on" -- it grades out as one of the better relief corps around, even while the offense itself has been middling. Minnesota, meanwhile, is held back by shaky baserunning and defense dragging down otherwise decent bat-to-ball production.

The pitching matchup tilts things further. Parker Messick, 25, brings a 7.30 pNERD built on plus command (xFIP- of 86) and a deliberate, chess-clock-friendly pace that keeps innings crisp; projection systems rank him in the 88th percentile among pitchers for overall talent. Opposite him, Kendry Rojas has no NERD data on file, which usually means a limited big-league sample or a first look -- worth watching just to see what the hype is about. Overall gNERD of 11.27 lands comfortably above the historical average, making this a solidly watchable weeknight option.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians

Kendry Rojas, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

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Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Good enough data. Now write summary.

Chase Burns is must-see television, and the Mariners just remembered they're in first place. Burns brings the best pNERD score on the board today, and it's not empty prospect hype — the Wake Forest product has won 10 straight decisions since his only loss, April 10 against the Los Angeles Angels, and his 97.9 mph heater plus elite whiff rate make him legitimately thrilling to watch even if this will be Burns' first time facing the Mariners. On the other side, Luis Castillo gets a nostalgia bump facing Mariners veteran Luis Castillo, who started his career in Cincinnati, though his recent form (a 7-2 loss at Tampa Bay in his last start, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings) suggests this isn't peak Castillo — his positive luck score backs that up, meaning his ERA has been worse than his stuff deserves, so some improvement is plausible. Seattle enters riding high after Cal Raleigh slammed a first-pitch breaking ball 408 feet, powering the Mariners to an 8-0 victory and a spot atop the AL West, though their tNERD is dragged down by shaky defense and baserunning. Cincinnati's offense, meanwhile, remains a mess by its own fans' account — this is a last-place team leaning entirely on pitching to stay interesting. At 11.12, the gNERD sits a shade above the historic average and right around today's slate — watch for Burns, tolerate the rest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Cincinnati Reds

Seattle Mariners

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Chicago's whippersnapper rookie lefty and Texas's homer-prone righty headline a game that's watchable mostly for the White Sox offense and a big Rangers luck correction looming, not for the pitching. Noah Schultz, still just 22, brings a live 95-mph fastball but his command remains a work in progress — he has struggled in limited MLB action with a 5.60 ERA and nearly as many walks as strikeouts, and his xFIP- pegs him as this season's below-average arm despite the prospect shine (pNERD 2.70). Kumar Rocker isn't faring much better; in two starts this month, Rocker is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and four home runs allowed over 10 innings, though his peripherals (xFIP- 101) are closer to league average, nudging his pNERD to a still-modest 3.94. Both arms sit below today's average pitcher NERD of 5.07, so don't expect a pitchers' duel. The bigger story is Texas's wild -33 team batting/pitching luck differential (tNERD Luck z-score +1.86), meaning the Rangers have been getting worse results than their process deserves and are due for better days — Chicago, by contrast, brings the sport's youngest, most athletic roster (tNERD 8.50) and is fresh off a 10-3 laugher in this same series opener, with Chris Murphy earning the win in relief while Miguel Vargas went 3 for 5 with two doubles. Overall gNERD of 10.38 lands almost exactly at the historic median — a perfectly average watch, elevated slightly by the Sox's youthful upside but capped by two shaky starters.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Texas Rangers

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

Good enough context. Now writing the summary.

A crosstown-adjacent clash of a former Astros ace trying to find himself and a Mets castoff who's been getting shelled, wrapped around a Cubs team that's quietly one of the better watches in baseball. Framber Valdez returns from bereavement leave — he was away after the death of his grandmother — and brings a career built on ground balls, though his first year with the Tigers has been a bit of a mess, with a nose dive in strikeout rate. Still, his groundball rate remains among the best in the game, and he finished the first half with a very strong start against the A's: 7.0 IP, 3H, 1ER, 0BB, 9K. David Peterson, across town from his old Mets life, has been rough lately, posting an alarming 7.99 xERA over his previous three starts while allowing a 46.9% hard-hit rate. Neither pitcher grades out as a marquee arm here — Peterson's pNERD gets a boost mostly from lucky results rather than stuff. The Cubs are the real draw, with standout fielding and offense driving their 8.08 tNERD, comfortably above both the historic and today's averages. Overall gNERD of 10.36 sits right around the historic median — solidly watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago Cubs

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

A tale of two contenders separated by 11 games in the standings, held together by a pretty electric arm. Drew Rasmussen brings a legitimate strikeout arsenal and a tidy xFIP- of 78 to Rogers Centre, though he's been rough lately — his most recent outing came on July 9 against the Yankees, when he tossed 2 1/3 innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up seven hits, part of a July slide that's dented an otherwise strong season. Kevin Gausman counters with solid strikeout stuff of his own — making his 21st start of the season after giving up three earned runs in six innings his last time out against San Diego — though his 4.33 ERA reflects a Toronto club that's been miserable lately; the Blue Jays have been outscored 22-6 since the All-Star break. Rookie Kazuma Okamoto is one bright spot for Toronto, leading the Blue Jays with 22 home runs while slugging .450, while Tampa Bay has simply been the better team, winning six of the first seven meetings between these clubs this season. Combined pitcher NERD of 6.86 outshines the so-so team NERDs, making this one for the arms more than the lineups — decent, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Miami's cheap, young roster makes for a plucky underdog story, and Yordan Alvarez chasing history in Houston gives this one an actual reason to tune in, even if the pitching matchup won't dazzle anyone. The Marlins arrive as the season's feel-good story but have hit a wall, having lost six straight games and a four-game road skid, while the Astros just snapped their own four-game slide by torching Miami on Monday. That win was highlighted by Jeremy Peña hitting a grand slam and Yordan Alvarez homering twice, capping a six-run second inning, with Alvarez now tied with Kyle Schwarber for the major league home run lead with 33. On the mound, Tatsuya Imai has been the shakier of the two arms, coming off a stretch where he went 0-1 with a 12.60 ERA over his final two starts before the All-Star break, and he'll be making his first career start against Miami. Tyler Phillips isn't much more inspiring by the NERD math, though his velocity and youth keep him respectable.

Statistically, this is a middling gNERD at 10.30, just above the historical average of 10.11 but below today's slate average of 10.69. The gap is almost entirely on the offense side — Miami's tNERD of 9.47 is elite, driven by strong baserunning, a young roster, and positive luck suggesting more room to improve, while Houston's 3.20 is well below average, dragged down by shaky baserunning and bullpen numbers. Neither starter stands out on pNERD (3.88 and 4.04, both below the 4.89 historic mean), so don't expect a pitching clinic — but with Alvarez chasing the home run crown and a scuffling Miami team looking to snap a skid, there's enough juice here to make it watchable if not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Miami Marlins

Houston Astros

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

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Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Diamondbacks are treading water in the wild card race and a debuting rookie makes this one worth a peek, though nobody should expect fireworks. Kohl Drake, a 26-year-old lefty, makes his MLB debut on the mound for Arizona, and while we've got zero statistical history to grade him on (hence that flat 0.00 pNERD), debuts always carry a little extra juice — will the nerves show, or will he look like he belongs? Across the diamond, Jack Perkins brings real swing-and-miss stuff (96 mph average velocity, strong strikeout rate) that props up his 7.08 pNERD, even though his 6.87 ERA and a recent relief outing where he allowed three earned runs in three innings suggest results haven't matched the raw ingredients — a discrepancy the eye-popping 61.0 luck figure practically screams about. Team-wise, neither side stands out: Arizona's plus glovework and bullpen are offset by a genuinely poor offense, while Oakland's affordable, youthful roster gets dragged down by shaky defense and baserunning. The 51-48 Diamondbacks have a prime opportunity to rack up wins against an Athletics team that is 15 games under .500, though a gNERD of 10.15 lands almost exactly at today's slate average — solidly watchable, nothing more.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Athletics (1.94)

Athletics

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jack Perkins, Athletics

Kohl Drake, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Boston's chasing history, and Ranger Suarez's return is the plot twist that makes this one worth flipping on. The Red Sox enter riding a 14-game winning streak—tied for the longest in the majors this season—and a win tonight would match the franchise record set in 1946, so there's actual stakes-based drama layered on top of the stats. Suarez himself is coming off the IL after being activated after a left groin strain that sidelined him since July 5, and his peripherals (79 xFIP-, plenty of grounders, a snappy 17.6-second pace) back up his strong 6.60 pNERD, the better of today's two starters by a wide margin. Bradish is steady rather than thrilling—decent strikeout stuff undercut by shaky command and a molasses-slow 21.7-second pace that tanks his NERD score. Boston's lineup isn't hitting much by the numbers (negative batting runs, below-average barrel rate) but is playing above its head thanks to elite fielding and bullpen work, while Baltimore's roster is broadly average across the board. At a 10.13 gNERD, this lands almost exactly at the historical middle, but the streak, the record chase, and Suarez's return give it more juice than the raw number suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

A last-place Angels club hosting a fading Cardinals team isn't exactly appointment viewing, but the pitching matchup has some juice. St. Louis has lost 7 of its last 10 games and rides into Anaheim with a rough patch, while the Angels sit at 39-61 and have been outscored by 62 runs on the season, so neither offense is inspiring confidence. Matthew Liberatore hasn't been sharp lately either, managing just two strikeouts in his last outing, though his 5.13 pNERD still reflects a useful mix of youth and some bad-luck regression upside. The real intrigue is 22-year-old Walbert Ureña, whose 97.4 mph average velocity is elite for his age and drives a 5.97 pNERD despite shaky command. Team-wise, it's lopsided: St. Louis's 6.39 tNERD (thanks to strong fielding and a young, cheap roster) dwarfs the Angels' 1.47, which is dragged down by poor baserunning and defense. The 9.48 gNERD lands below the historical and today's averages, making this one more about watching a hard-throwing young arm than the overall product.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Angels

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Skip this one unless you just want to watch the Nationals mash dingers against a last-place team playing out the string. Washington's offense — majors-leading 147 home runs and MLB's highest-scoring attack — steamrolled Colorado 7-3 in the series opener, and the Rockies (40-62, worst record in baseball) are already selling off pieces like Seth Halvorsen ahead of the trade deadline, so this has more housekeeping-in-Denver vibes than drama.

The gNERD here is 7.81, sitting below both the historic median (10.11) and today's average (10.69), and that's almost entirely a lopsided tNERD split: Washington's 8.97 (young, athletic, good on the bases) against Colorado's paltry 1.31, dragged down by weak barrel rates and shaky fielding. The Nationals' bullpen, though, is a genuine sore spot — worst in the sport by our measure — so late innings could get messy in either direction.

On the mound, neither Mikolas (3.01 pNERD) nor Lorenzen (2.34) will wow you on paper, both carrying ERAs north of 5.50, but there's a wrinkle worth knowing: Mikolas has not allowed an earned run in four of his last seven outings and has struck out 14 while issuing just four walks in 38.0 innings since June 8, while Lorenzen struggled early in the season but has been steady in his last seven starts, going 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA, and has allowed just one home run in his past four outings. Modest stakes, modestly entertaining floor.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Colorado Rockies

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

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San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Two last-place clubs stumble through Kauffman Stadium, and neither pitching matchup nor playoff stakes give you much reason to clear your schedule. This is a series between teams that both entered the year with modest hopes and have spent the summer torching them: it wasn't supposed to be like this for either team, as the Royals stormed into last year's Wild Card only to watch the wheels fall off this season, sitting at 40-60, while San Francisco sits at 42-57, barely ahead of Colorado for last place in the NL West. Tyler Mahle takes the ball for the Giants sporting a 2-8 record and 5.31 ERA, though his peripherals (xFIP- near league average) suggest he's been unlucky and due for better results, per his positive luck component. Across from him, 24-year-old Luinder Avila brings a 96-mph fastball but has struggled to find the strike zone consistently, which caps his upside. Neither offense inspires much confidence — the Giants' bullpen and baserunning are dragging their tNERD down, and Kansas City's bullpen has been the worst in the league. With a gNERD of 7.56, sitting below both the historic and today's averages, this one's more matinee filler than must-watch, unless you're partial to watching two last-place clubs sort out who's slightly less broken.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Kansas City Royals

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals

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