MLB: What to watch on July 20, 2026

• 20 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

This is about as good as it gets on the daily slate, with the Pirates’ ace-in-the-making squaring off against a Yankees lineup that never stops hitting. The 18.16 gNERD is the top mark of the day and creeps toward the all-time historic ceiling near 19.80, and it's easy to see why once you look at the roster sheets.

Braxton Ashcraft has quietly turned into Pittsburgh's best story of the season — he comes back from a stellar first half where he earned his first All-Star nod, posting a 9-3 record over 19 starts with a 3.43 ERA, 128 strikeouts against just 27 walks. His pNERD of 11.27 is buoyed by plus velocity, a stingy walk rate, and an xFIP- that suggests he's not just riding good fortune. Ryan Weathers isn't as flashy but still checks in with a solid 8.56 pNERD, thanks largely to a hefty luck bump — his ERA and results have run better than his peripherals suggest, so some regression could be lurking. The Yankees bring the sport's best barrel rate profile in this matchup, and both offenses rank near the top of the league in batting and baserunning value, making this a legitimately can't-miss ballgame.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Yankees

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 4:10p

Summary

Good enough info. Let me write the summary.

Cristopher Sánchez is quietly having a Cy Young-caliber season, and this matchup pits the league's best record against arguably its stingiest arm. Sánchez enters at 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA, and his elite peripherals back it up — he's having an All-Star-caliber season: 11-4, a 2.62 ERA, 144 strikeouts — while he owns a 0.86 ERA and 61.9 GB% at home this season. His 10.02 pNERD is well above today's average and near the historic 95th percentile, driven by outstanding whiff and strike rates. Sheehan, by contrast, is homer-prone — solid strikeout numbers at 93, but he's been homer-prone, having already surrendered 15 long balls this season — though he did close the first half strong, striking out seven Diamondbacks over 5.1 innings in his last outing. The Dodgers carry MLB's best record but have scuffled lately, dropping three straight to a middling Diamondbacks club just over a week ago before salvaging a split at Yankee Stadium. With a 9.57 tNERD for LA (elite bullpen, fielding, and pop) and a well above-average 15.84 gNERD overall, this one lands comfortably above both the historic and today's-slate averages — worth carving out time for, mostly to watch Sánchez work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia Phillies

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

I've got plenty here. Now writing the summary.

This one's a marquee pitching matchup wrapped in a revenge-game subplot, and the gNERD score backs it up as one of the best watches on the board today. Jacob Misiorowski returns from a bout of arm fatigue that scratched his final start before the break, and Milwaukee has posted a 10-4 record with a 1.62 ERA, 167 strikeouts, a 0.76 WHIP and a .148 opponents' batting average over 111 innings in his rookie season — the numbers behind a pNERD score near the top of today's slate, fueled by triple-digit velocity and elite whiff and strikeout rates. There's real juice here too: Freddy Peralta, the pitcher Milwaukee sent to New York in January in the trade that brought Sproat back, faces his former team for the first time, and Misiorowski is looking to erase his only prior appearance against New York, when he lasted just 3 2/3 innings, walked three and served up a grand slam to Brandon Nimmo. Peralta himself has been middling by his standards — a 4.66 ERA — and his pNERD reflects a modest profile, mostly propped up by decent luck regression upside. Milwaukee's tNERD is comfortably strong thanks to bullpen depth and a young, cheap roster, while the Mets' offense-starved lineup drags their side down. Historically, this game's overall score sits well above average, and the Misiorowski half alone is must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Good enough to work with. Now I'll draft the summary.

A four-game series with genuine stakes and a Padres team that's owned the Braves lately makes this opener worth a look, even if neither starter is likely to dazzle. San Diego enters having swept Atlanta in June and having won eight of their past nine against Atlanta dating to last season, and this "season-defining" set at Truist Park comes with the Padres reportedly heading toward being sellers, with the matchup telling the front office a lot about where this squad is for the remainder of the year. Atlanta, meanwhile, is trying to hold the NL East without Ronald Acuña Jr., who manager Walt Weiss said he wouldn't rule out returning during the series, as the 2023 NL MVP has been out since early June rehabbing a hamstring injury. On the mound, JP Sears carries no pNERD data to lean on and has been shaky, having allowed three runs on six hits over 4.1 innings in his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays, while Bryce Elder's modest 5.12 pNERD is buoyed mostly by a deliberate pace and youth rather than dominant stuff—his sub-92 mph velocity and below-average swinging-strike rate suggest more of a control-and-guile profile than a strikeout show. The real juice here comes from the offenses and bullpens: both pens rank well above average, and San Diego's tNERD of 9.12 is elite by today's standards (9.57 is the day's ceiling) thanks to strong baserunning, fielding, and broadcast appeal, while Atlanta's 7.04 still clears the historical average comfortably. With a combined gNERD of 13.14, sitting near the top of today's slate and well above the historical median, this one leans watchable on team quality and narrative more than on pitching artistry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Atlanta Braves

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

The mound matchup is the whole story here: a 38-year-old Jacob deGrom, fresh off a glute scare, against a White Sox lineup he's basically owned for over a decade. deGrom was scratched from his last turn before the break with a mild glute strain but threw a bullpen session in Atlanta on Saturday and apparently passed every test needed to have him start, and his stuff still looks ace-caliber — 97+ mph, elite whiff rates, and a 10.81 pNERD that's near the top of today's slate. His track record against Chicago borders on comical: the White Sox are one of just five teams deGrom hasn't beaten in his 13-year career, and he owns a 1.80 ERA in three previous starts against them. Fedde, by contrast, is replacement-level watchability (0.97 pNERD), so don't expect a duel so much as a deGrom showcase. The White Sox actually carry the sharper team profile — young, cheap, and buzzy — while Texas's tNERD gets propped up almost entirely by bad luck that says positive regression is coming. A gNERD of 13.04 clears the historical average and sits mid-pack for today's games, worth tuning in for deGrom alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Texas Rangers

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Coors Field turns even mediocre pitching matchups into batting practice, and this one has the ingredients for exactly that kind of chaos. Washington's Nationals, sitting a surprising .500 and boasting the majors' most productive offense, roll into Denver against a Rockies club that's 40-61 and leaking runs everywhere except the mound this weekend, where Colorado just got shredded 9-6 by Cincinnati in an eight-homer slugfest. Washington's 9.07 tNERD is one of the best team scores you'll see, fueled by strong baserunning and batting runs, though their bullpen (-2.12) remains a genuine liability that could turn a laugher into a whit... into a nail-biter. Colorado's 1.37 tNERD reflects a lineup and defense both underwater. On the mound, Andrew Alvarez, 27, makes his first career start against the Rockies, having last pitched July 12 with control still an issue—22 walks in 49 innings. Kyle Freeland brings a bloated 7.36 ERA and has allowed 18 home runs already, a sign Coors' altitude has compounded his struggles. Freeland's luck score suggests some batted-ball misfortune, but don't expect a pitchers' duel—expect fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Colorado Rockies

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Two of baseball's hottest teams collide, and for once the hype isn't hollow. The Red Sox arrive having won 13 straight — Boston's 13-game streak is the organization's best stretch since 1948 — while Baltimore counters with a season-high seven-game run of its own, giving this "Win Streak" series real juice. Boston's tNERD (6.39) is buoyed by strong fielding and bullpen work, though a negative luck value hints their offense has been running a bit hot. Baltimore's tNERD (4.64) is more middling, dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning, and complicated by injury uncertainty behind the plate after Samuel Basallo left with right-shoulder discomfort and Adley Rutschman is dealing with left wrist discomfort. On the mound, rookie lefty Payton Tolle (pNERD 8.43, comfortably above today's 6.07 average) is the headliner, boasting excellent strike-throwing and a live fastball, and he's no stranger to this matchup — Tolle pitched six scoreless innings against the Orioles last month. Shane Baz (pNERD 3.50) has been shakier, having struck out nine but failed to complete five innings his last time out, only the second time this season he's done so. Overall gNERD of 11.48 sits a touch above the historical average — a solidly watchable game, elevated by the standings stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

A lopsided team NERD gap makes this one for Marlins loyalists more than neutrals, though Houston's home-crowd frustration adds a little juice. Miami's 9.54 tNERD ranks near the top of today's slate, fueled by scrappy baserunning, a lean payroll, and a young roster, while Houston's 3.13 is closer to the bottom, dragged down by shaky fielding and a middling bullpen. The Astros are also nursing a three-game home losing streak, and while Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with 31 home runs while slugging .633, the pitching matchup doesn't inspire much confidence in a laugher. Janson Junk brings a modest 3.04 pNERD - his 4-5 record with a 4.57 ERA reflects a fringy repertoire, particularly a whiff rate that's near the bottom of the league. Ronel Blanco's pNERD sits at zero because there's simply no meaningful data to grade, likely tied to his limited action this year. Overall gNERD lands at 10.35, right around league average, so this is a watchable-if-unspectacular option rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Miami Marlins

Houston Astros

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Dylan Cease is quietly having a big year and Nick Martinez is contact-and-command steady, but the standings tell an odd story: last-place Toronto owns the sharper starter, first-place Tampa Bay owns the sharper team. Worth a look mostly for the mound matchup, not the stakes.

Cease brings by far the juicier arm here, and the numbers back it up: his xFIP- of 62 and 2.06 z-score swinging-strike rate translate into a 10.30 pNERD, comfortably above the day's 6.07 average and buoyed by a 97.4 mph heater that sits in the top decile. Cease lost a no-hitter on a leadoff single in the ninth in a 10-0 win over the Giants on July 8 and struck out the side in the first inning of the All-Star Game. Martinez, by contrast, checks in at a modest 2.84 pNERD — he's been effective in results (8-2, 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), but his contact-management profile with a low swinging-strike rate doesn't grade out as appointment viewing.

On the team side, Tampa Bay's 4.71 tNERD edges Toronto's 2.38, largely thanks to Tampa's positive batting and baserunning marks against Toronto's rough barrel rate and negative batting runs. Both clubs arrive banged up and slumping: Tampa Bay is on a season-worst five-game losing streak after being swept in a four-game series by the Boston Red Sox, while the Rays are without Gavin Lux, sidelined with a shoulder issue, and Jake Fraley, still dealing with a groin injury with no firm return timetable. The overall 10.11 gNERD lands almost exactly at the historical median and below today's slate average, so treat this as a solid-not-spectacular option — watch it for Cease's strikeouts, not for the standings drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

This is a middling matchup elevated mainly by Joe Ryan's arm, with two flawed, injury-dinged teams playing out a season-series rubber match that's closer than the standings suggest. The Guardians (52-48) host the Twins (49-51) to open a four-game set, and both clubs are banged up: Cleveland is missing José Ramírez to a hand injury and Andrés Martínez to a foot issue, while Minnesota is without Byron Buxton (hip) and reliever pieces on the 60-day IL. Joe Ryan carries the pitching matchup with a 6-5 record and 2.86 ERA, and his 6.59 pNERD—built on a sharp xFIP- and strong strike-throwing—sits comfortably above average for today's slate. Tanner Bibee is the weaker link, sporting a 3-9 record and 3.90 ERA and a pNERD of just 3.19, dragged down by a slow pace and middling whiff rate. Team-wise, Cleveland's 7.12 tNERD (young roster, solid bullpen, thrifty payroll) outshines Minnesota's 2.95, though the Twins' bats have quietly outperformed their baserunning and defense. Overall gNERD of 9.92 lands near the historical middle and below today's average—watchable for the Ryan start, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

A middling gNERD score dressed up with a genuinely interesting storyline: Jameson Taillon makes his first start in over a month off the injured list, and Jack Flaherty has quietly been one of the better arms in baseball lately. Taillon returns from a left hamstring strain that came after over a month spent on the Injured List, with two rehab starts before this activation, and his season line entering the day is rough — a 2-5 record with a 5.19 ERA. Flaherty, meanwhile, has been sneaky-good: over his last six starts he's posted a 2.12 ERA and a 2.46 FIP over 29 2/3 innings, striking out 34 against 10 walks while allowing just one home run, though the raw pNERD numbers (2.79 and 3.65) don't fully capture that recent form and sit below both today's average (6.07) and the historical median. The Cubs carry the show offensively, with a tNERD of 7.97 fueled by strong fielding and batting runs, well above Detroit's 4.93 and comfortably above the historical mean of 5.23 — though their shaky bullpen drags the number down some. Combined gNERD of 9.67 lands near the historical median but toward the bottom of today's slate, so treat this as a solid-not-must-see game, elevated mainly by the Taillon return-from-injury subplot and Flaherty's under-the-radar hot streak.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago Cubs

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels, 7:10p

Summary

Cardinals fans watching this one are really just here for José Soriano's arm, since the rest of the game is a rough Angels team trying not to embarrass itself further. Soriano brings real swing-and-miss stuff and mid-90s heat that makes him one of the more watchable arms on the mound today, even if the Angels around him remain one of the league's sorrier outfits. St. Louis arrives fresh off a gut-punch, having squandered a 7-0 lead while dropping the decisive contest of their three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, 8-7, in 10 innings on Sunday, the largest comeback in Diamondbacks history, so there's a "can they regroup" subplot against a club that's the worst record in baseball at 39-61. Soriano himself has cooled some, the American League Pitcher of the Month in April, is 0-2 in his last five starts following an 8-0 home victory over Tampa Bay on June 13, but his xFIP- and velocity still grade out well, giving him a pNERD nearly 3x Kyle Leahy's. Leahy, by contrast, is a bit of a lottery ticket—decent recent form (three shutout innings last time out) but middling peripherals. Cardinals' tNERD (6.55) is solidly above average thanks to a young, athletic roster; the Angels' 1.56 is near the bottom of today's slate, dragged down by poor fielding and baserunning. Overall gNERD of 9.39 sits a touch below the historical average—watch for Soriano, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Angels

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

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Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Andrew Abbott takes the ball for a Reds club stuck at 45-53 and clinging to relevance, but the real draw is George Kirby, who's quietly having one of the better seasons among AL starters and owns a pNERD score that's well above today's average. This one leans on Kirby's polish more than any offensive fireworks, so watch it for pitching craft rather than a scoring party.

Kirby brings a 96.8 mph average fastball and elite command to the mound — his strike rate and velocity both grade out well above league norms, and an xFIP- of 86 backs up the shine on his 7-8, 3.76 record. He's coming off a quality start in a 2-0 loss July 8 at Miami, going six innings and yielding two runs on eight hits, with no walks and seven strikeouts. Abbott, meanwhile, is scuffling: Abbott lasted just four innings in his last start July 12 against the visiting Chicago Cubs, allowing four runs on four hits with three walks and three strikeouts in a game the Reds lost 8-4. His NERD components reflect that unevenness — his xFIP- north of 110 drags his score down well below league average.

On the team side, neither club is thrilling: Seattle's tNERD sits below the historic median, weighed down by shaky fielding and baserunning, while Cincinnati's slightly better mark still gets dinged by a shaky bullpen. Betting markets have installed the Mariners as clear home favorites, with Seattle priced around -145 to -162 on the moneyline, and the combination of Reds hitters slumping and Kirby's command suggests a lower-scoring affair. With a gNERD of 9.08 — below both the historic and today's averages — this is a game to watch for pitching nerds, not scoreboard-watchers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Cincinnati Reds

Seattle Mariners

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

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San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Two last-place-adjacent clubs playing out the string, but Michael Wacha's All-Star bid and a genuine Salvador Perez milestone watch give this one a little juice beyond the standings. Wacha has been exceptional during his career against the San Francisco Giants, who visit the Royals, and ranks among the major league leaders with 12 quality starts, though he's cooled lately — in his most recent start, at the New York Mets, Wacha matched a season high with six runs surrendered, plus three walks, across a season-low 4 2/3 innings. He's also historically dominant against San Francisco specifically, 3-1 with a 1.94 ERA in 10 career starts against them, though he hasn't faced them since 2024. Trevor McDonald, making his first appearance against the Royals, is coming off a solid bounce-back start against Colorado after getting shelled by Toronto. His 5.74 pNERD nudges past Wacha's 4.30, boosted by his youth and a hefty positive luck component suggesting his ugly ERA should improve. Watch for Salvador Perez, sitting two homers shy of tying George Brett's franchise record. Team-wise, both clubs post modest tNERD marks (Giants 4.30, Royals 2.98) dragged down by shaky bullpens, landing this gNERD of 8.66 below both historic and today's averages — a fine game for storylines, but not a marquee watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Kansas City Royals

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Not much drama here beyond the standings jockeying, but let's set expectations properly. This one sits below the historic median in game watchability (7.63 gNERD against a historical average of 10.11) and comes in well under today's slate average of 11.60, so temper your expectations. Arizona is riding high after a wild comeback, having erased a seven-run deficit against the Cardinals on a Sunday rally where the Diamondbacks came back with eight unanswered runs over five innings, capped by Max Kepler's walk-off double in extras, and they're chasing a wild-card spot while Oakland is mired in one of the ugliest stretches in baseball, having dropped 19 of their past 23 games. On the mound, rookie Mitch Bratt is still searching for his first big-league win in just his third career start, with zero NERD data available yet to judge him by, while Jeffrey Springs brings modest peripherals (2.62 pNERD) dragged down by an xFIP well above average, though his outsized luck score suggests he's been getting unlucky and could be due for better results than his ugly stretch of going 0-9 over his past 15 appearances since his last win on April 14 would indicate. Arizona's tNERD edge comes mostly from strong fielding and baserunning, but neither offense is scary, so unless you're invested in the Diamondbacks' playoff push, this is a skippable one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Athletics (1.94)

Athletics

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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