MLB: What to watch on July 19, 2026

• 19 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees, 9:35a

Summary

Good writeup opportunities. Now let me draft the summary.

A World Series preview, minus one Judge, plus a rain delay and a doubleheader — this is as good as the regular season gets. Yamamoto and Schlittler headline a gNERD score of 18.35, near the top of what you'll find today and comfortably in the upper crust historically. This rematch of the 2024 Fall Classic finds the Dodgers atop the NL West and the Yankees playing without Aaron Judge, and it comes as the makeup half of a doubleheader after Saturday's rainout in the Bronx. The Yankees are fielding their ace Cam Schlittler, the current frontrunner in midseason AL Cy Young polls, who has fully broken out following an impressive postseason performance in 2025. His pNERD of 9.80 backs that up, built on plus velocity, a low xFIP-, and a strikeout rate that's making hitters look silly. Yamamoto isn't far behind at 8.08, though he had a rough outing in his final start before the All-Star break, allowing six runs in six innings against the Diamondbacks, so he'll be looking to bounce back. Both offenses carry real thump — Ohtani and Rice among the game's top power threats — giving this the rare combination of ace pitching and lineup quality that actually deserves the hype.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Yankees

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Ace on the mound, missing star bat in the box, and a Pirates lineup that's finally scoring for once—this one's worth clicking on. Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, headlines with a 10.18 pNERD (well above today's field, which averages 5.15), and the numbers back the eye test: Skenes has walked just 24 batters in over 108 innings this season, a command profile that's rare even among aces. He's also looking to bounce back after a rough stretch over the last two months, having been notably better in his last couple starts. Opposite him, Joey Cantillo (4.93 pNERD) is solid but unspectacular, with shakier control—49 walks in 101 innings—and he'll do it without Cleveland's best hitter, as Jose Ramirez's absence removes Cleveland's best all-around hitter from the middle of the order. Both lineups carry decent tNERD marks (7.52 and 7.32), lifted by baserunning and, for Cleveland, a young, cheap roster. Combined gNERD of 14.97 sits comfortably above both the historic 95th percentile (14.76) and today's average (11.00)—a genuinely well-built matchup, ace edge and all.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cleveland Guardians

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

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Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

A near-perfect game encore and a Brewers club with the best record in baseball make this one worth clearing your schedule for. Eury Pérez, the 23-year-old flamethrower who missed two months with a gracilis strain, came back and threw seven innings toward a perfect game on July 5, retiring all 21 batters he faced on 92 pitches, before being taken out. His pNERD of 7.59 is well above today's 5.15 average, driven by elite velocity (98.1 mph) and a swinging-strike rate that ranks near the top of the league. The Marlins, once assumed sellers, have instead been baseball's best team since the beginning of June, reeling off a 24-8 stretch, and it shows in their tNERD of 9.73 — youth, baserunning, and a modest payroll all pulling their weight. Milwaukee counters with a stacked bullpen and its own tNERD of 8.30, riding a young, cheap roster to the league's best record. Robert Gasser is the weaker link on the mound, with an xFIP- of 112 pulling his pNERD down to 4.23, though a positive luck figure suggests his results have been a bit worse than his stuff deserves. Combined gNERD of 14.93 sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — a legitimately appealing matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Miami Marlins

Milwaukee Brewers

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees, 4:20p

Summary

A doubleheader nightcap loaded with star power and two of the sport's most talent-rich rosters squaring off. After Saturday's rainout forced a split doubleheader, the Dodgers and Yankees close it out with a gNERD of 14.42, comfortably above the historic average of 10.11 and near the top of today's slate. Both teams bring elite tNERD marks — LA's 9.75 and New York's 9.08 rank among the best team scores you'll see, historically sitting near the 95th percentile. The Dodgers rate well thanks to strong batting production and a lineup that leads with the likes of Shohei Ohtani, who sits 10th in the league with 22 home runs, while the Yankees counter with Ben Rice's 29 homers, third-most in the league, plus standout barrel rates and baserunning value. The probable starters — Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cam Schlittler — arrive without pNERD data logged here, but both have been sharp this year, so don't be surprised if this one's as crisp on the mound as it is loud at the plate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves, 10:35a

Summary

Eovaldi grinding through an illness to face a Braves lineup that just hung 15 runs on Texas is the kind of storyline that makes a Sunday getaway game worth checking in on. The Rangers were reportedly on the wrong end of a 15-1 blowout in this series just two days prior, and Eovaldi is dealing with an illness but is lined up to start against Atlanta on Sunday, which adds some uncertainty to how sharp he'll look. Statistically, though, he's been excellent — his 8.74 pNERD is well above both the historic and today's-game averages, built on a stingy xFIP- and strong swinging-strike and strike rates, with some bad luck (a 22.0 luck score) suggesting his results should actually look better going forward. Holmes is comparatively pedestrian, a fringe-average arm by the peripherals with a below-average strike rate. Atlanta's lineup carries the day on the team side: an elite bullpen, strong barrel rate, and solid fielding push their tNERD to 6.98, well above the 5.60 historic median, while Texas checks in closer to average, buoyed mostly by good fortune that hasn’t yet shown up in the run column. Overall gNERD of 12.11 sits comfortably above both today's and historic averages — a game worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Texas Rangers

Atlanta Braves

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:35a

Summary

A rebuilding-year Mets club limps into Philly with McLean, their best swing-and-miss arm, trying to find consistency against a Phillies rotation that's resting its actual aces. Nolan McLean's stuff is easily the headline here—his 8.34 pNERD is comfortably above today's average, built on plus velocity, a quick pace, and youth, and he's shown flashes of true dominance mixed with disaster starts; not many starters have multiple outings of no runs and at least six innings in the same season when they give up nine runs in a start, but McLean did just that. Across the mound, rookie Alan Rangel gets the ball because Philadelphia's pair of aces, Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler, will not pitch in this series against New York, saving them for the Dodgers—so Rangel, with zero pNERD data logged, is essentially an unknown quantity following a rocky big-league opening. Team-wise, both clubs are batting-runs negative, but Philadelphia's bullpen and baserunning give it a modest tNERD edge. At 11.52, the gNERD lands right around today's middle of the pack—watchable mostly for McLean's arm, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Alan Rangel, Philadelphia Phillies

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Good enough info to work with. Let me write the summary.

Wrigley Field hosts a decent Sunday matinee, buoyed more by the Cubs' defense and Imanaga's command than by any real drama between two middling clubs. The Cubs sit second in the NL Central and rank near the top of today's slate in tNERD thanks largely to standout glovework — Pete Crow-Armstrong has 15 doubles, four triples and 21 home runs while hitting .284 for the Cubs — while Nico Hoerner had four hits against the Twins on Saturday, part of the reason Chicago's bats have been humming. Minnesota, by contrast, drags the game down with shaky baserunning and fielding, though its offense has quietly been alright. On the mound, Imanaga's peripherals (6.42 pNERD) outstrip his pedestrian 4.17 ERA — his xFIP and strikeout rate suggest better results are coming, though bettors note he averages only 17.05 outs per start this season and 16.1 across his last 10 appearances, so don't expect a marathon outing. Matthews (5.60 pNERD) is younger and throws hard but lacks a standout strikeout profile. With a gNERD of 11.41, this sits just above the historical median and squarely in the middle of today's crop — watchable, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago Cubs

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

Boston is riding a 12-game winning streak, and the finale of this Rays-Sox set pits Sonny Gray, red-hot at 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, against a McClanahan/Rays club that's dropped three straight in this series. The Red Sox erupted for a 7-6 comeback win Saturday behind Wilyer Abreu's two homers—his fourth in as many games—capping a run in which Boston has thoroughly stifled Tampa's offense.

This is a solidly above-average watch, powered less by star juice than by a good pitching duel and a Boston team playing out an actual streak worth seeing continue. The gNERD of 10.97 sits just above the historical median and roughly in the middle of today's slate. McClanahan carries the better pNERD (6.97) thanks to strong strikeout stuff and a lean return from a long absence, and he held the Yankees scoreless over 6.1 innings last time out. Gray's peripherals (86 xFIP-) are actually sharper than his ERA suggests, though his plodding pace drags his pNERD down to 4.34. Boston's tNERD (6.45) is buoyed by strong fielding and bullpen work, while Tampa's barrel-rate woes keep its offense unremarkable. Nothing here screams must-see, but a hot Fenway crowd, a real winning streak, and two competent arms make it worth a glance.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

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Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 9:15a

Summary

Good story to work with. Now writing the summary.

A surprise contender against a last-place team scuffling to stay in the wild card race—this one's more about storylines than pure stuff. The White Sox, fresh off three straight 100-loss seasons, are somehow leading the AL Central, and they'll try to make it six straight wins behind Sean Burke, whose 3.80 xFIP in 105.2 innings marks his first full season with a sub-4.00 ERA. He's been especially sharp away from home, posting a 2.89 road ERA and allowing just 4 earned runs in his last 18.1 innings on the road, which helps explain his solid 6.32 pNERD. Across the mound, Toronto's 22-year-old Trey Yesavage is trying to regroup after an embarrassing previous start, and his peripherals back up the shakiness—a below-average xFIP- drags his pNERD down to 3.78 despite his youth working in his favor. Toronto's offense has cooled too, with George Springer regressing sharply from his 2025 numbers to a much thinner .226/.377/.304 line this year. The Blue Jays' 2.41 tNERD is well below both the historic and today's-slate averages, while Chicago's 8.52 keeps things watchable. Overall gNERD of 10.52 sits almost exactly at the historic median—fine, not thrilling.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

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San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Padres are chasing a wild-card spot, Márquez is back from injury, Royals on a small home win streak. Let me write the summary now.

This is a mismatched game worth watching mainly for Noah Cameron's arm and Fernando Tatis-and-friends' playoff push, not for much else. The Padres roll into Kauffman Stadium at 48-49, 3.5 games back of the final NL wild-card spot, kicking off a nine-game road trip that the front office is watching closely before the trade deadline, while Kansas City sits well out of contention at 39-59 despite riding a modest four-game home winning streak. San Diego's 8.79 tNERD is one of the stronger team profiles you'll see, built on solid baserunning, fielding, and an excellent bullpen, though the offense itself has been a drag on the roster. Kansas City's 3.26 tNERD reflects a shakier bullpen and unremarkable lineup, though a positive luck figure suggests they've actually underperformed their true talent level lately. On the mound, Cameron (5.81 pNERD) is the more interesting arm — young, quick-working, and roughly league-average by xFIP- — while Germán Márquez (0.49 pNERD) is making just his third start since coming off the injured list, having posted a 3.75 ERA over 12 innings since returning, though his peripheral numbers (elevated xFIP-, low strikeout rate) suggest that success may not hold. At 9.18, the gNERD lands below the historical middle and today's average, so temper expectations, but Márquez's return-from-injury storyline gives it a little juice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Kansas City Royals

Germán Márquez, San Diego Padres

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

A last-place matchup with modest juice, elevated mostly by Casey Mize quietly having a nice year. Detroit and Los Angeles close out their series with the Tigers up 3-2 on the season, and while nobody's confusing this Angels team (38-60, dead last in the AL West) with a playoff contender, there's some entertainment lurking in the numbers. Mize brings a 2.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 77 strikeouts and his pNERD of 6.29 reflects genuinely sharp peripherals—strong xFIP-, quick pace, and a knack for whiffs. Ryan Johnson, on the other hand, owns a rough 6.75 ERA, though his 23-year-old age and positive luck score suggest better days could be ahead. Both offenses are unremarkable—Detroit's tNERD (4.77) is merely average, Angels' (1.46) is well below—with shaky fielding and baserunning dragging both down. Colt Keith's four-hit day Saturday and Nolan Schanuel's steady .273 average are the closest things to storylines here. Overall gNERD of 8.89 sits below the historical average, making this one skippable unless you're specifically chasing Mize's start.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Los Angeles Angels

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

A tight NL Wild Card race backdrop dresses up an otherwise middling pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks and Cardinals sit within a couple games of each other in the standings, with Arizona trying to climb past St. Louis for the final playoff spot, so there's actual stakes attached even if the pitching itself won't wow anyone.

Eduardo Rodriguez carries a shiny 2.29 ERA into this one, but the numbers say don't believe it — the leading projection system estimates his true talent level to be 4.75, a 2.46 deviation from his actual ERA, and he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play with a .244 BABIP that should normalize. His pNERD of 2.39 reflects that mediocre underlying profile — modest velocity, low whiff rate — rather than the ERA on the back of his baseball card. Andre Pallante isn't much better on paper (pNERD 3.95), a ground-ball specialist who's allowed 11 earned runs across his last three starts, though his contact-suppression skills are more sustainable than Rodriguez's. Team-wise, St. Louis's tNERD (6.69) benefits from a young, cheap roster and strong fielding, while Arizona's (4.55) is dragged down by weak batting runs despite plus defense. With a gNERD of 8.79, this lands below both the historic and today's averages — watchable if you care about the standings, skippable if you're just chasing quality pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Washington Nationals @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

Skip this one unless you just want to watch Foster Griffin cruise against a lineup that can't touch him. Washington's tNERD (8.72) dwarfs Oakland's (3.12), and that gap shows up in the box scores — this series has already produced a 23-4 Nationals blowout and, a day later, a 15-1 A's revenge rout in which J.T. Ginn took a no-hitter into the seventh and Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Carlos Cortes homered to help the A's bounce back 24 hours after their most lopsided loss in more than 70 years. Griffin himself is the story: fresh off going 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 19 starts after three seasons pitching in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants, he just made the All-Star team and carries a strong pNERD of 6.48 on solid command and contact-suppression skills. Lopez is the opposite — a -1.34 pNERD reflecting an ugly xFIP-, though some positive regression luck suggests he isn't quite as bad as his run totals. With Oakland's bullpen and fielding both scuffling and its lineup unremarkable, the 8.49 gNERD lands below both the historical and today's-slate averages — watchable mainly for Griffin, not the matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Athletics

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

A rubber match with modest juice: Logan Gilbert brings real swing-and-miss stuff, but Robbie Ray's return to Seattle is the story worth tuning in for. The gNERD here sits at 7.42, below the historic average of 10.11 and near the bottom of today's slate, so temper expectations for fireworks. Gilbert is the engine, with a 6.95 pNERD built on a 3.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 119 strikeouts, backed by plus velocity and whiff rates that make him a legitimately watchable arm. Ray, by contrast, grades out near replacement level at 0.72 pNERD — his xFIP- and strike rate lag despite a solid surface ERA of 3.38 since returning to the mound this year — and there's some novelty in a former Mariner taking the mound against his old club. Team-wise, neither side excites: the Giants (4.53 tNERD) are buoyed almost entirely by lousy luck (a hefty positive 1.92 component, suggesting they're due for better results) while the Mariners limp in at 2.64 tNERD, dragged down by poor fielding and baserunning. San Francisco enters fourth in the NL West, 19.5 games out, playing out the string more than chasing anything meaningful. Watch for Gilbert's stuff; skip the rest unless you're desperate for baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Seattle Mariners

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

Hunter Greene's return from elbow surgery is the real draw here, even if the raw NERD math says skip it. Greene, an All-Star who missed the entire first half after having bone chips removed from his throwing elbow in March, has come back and given Cincinnati's rotation a real jolt — a boost to a Cincinnati rotation that also features 23-year-old Chase Burns, who is 10-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 17 starts this season. His pNERD reads zero simply because there isn't enough 2026 data yet, not because he's been bad — in 2025 he went 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts over 107 2/3 innings when healthy. Feltner offers a modest but tidy 2.99 pNERD, propped up mostly by solid velocity and pace, though his xFIP- sits a bit below average. The team numbers are where this game loses steam: Colorado's 1.45 tNERD is among the worst you'll see today, dragged down by poor batting, barreling, and fielding marks, while Cincinnati's 4.77 is merely middling. Overall gNERD of 7.10 lands below today's 11.00 average — watch for Greene's stuff, not the final score.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Colorado Rockies

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

A modest wild-card tussle with more juice in the standings than in the arms on the mound. The Orioles roll into Houston riding a season-best six-game winning streak that has leapfrogged them a half game ahead of the Astros in the crowded wild card race, adding some real stakes even if the gNERD score (6.93) sits well below the historical average of 10.11 and near the bottom of today's 6.93-18.35 range. Neither Baltimore (4.59 tNERD) nor Houston (3.33 tNERD) brings much offensive thump to the table, though both clubs show above-average barrel rates offset by shaky baserunning and defense — Houston's bullpen in particular has been a drag on their number. On the mound, Brandon Young (3.25 pNERD) is young and quietly effective in bursts but his xFIP- of 110 signals more fringe-average than frontline stuff. Hunter Brown (2.69 pNERD) still pumps mid-90s heat, but his strike-throwing has cratered lately, dragging his components into the red alongside a plodding pace on the mound. This is a game to watch for standings implications and a scrappy Orioles club riding momentum, not for must-see pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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