MLB: What to watch on July 24, 2026

• 24 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Highest gNERD score of the day, and two of the game's marquee arms make it easy to justify skipping the remote control. This is genuinely the marquee pitching matchup of this Yankees-Phillies series, and it's built on two pitchers having standout seasons rather than reputation alone.

Schlittler currently sits as the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young award and carries a 2.20 ERA into action, having fanned 145 batters in 123.0 innings, and the underlying numbers back it up — his xFIP- and swinging-strike rates both grade elite, with plus-97 mph heat to match. Luzardo, meanwhile, has Philadelphia winning his last 10 starts, and he allowed just one run in five innings against the Mets in his first outing since the All-Star break. His command and whiff numbers are similarly outstanding, though a modest positive luck value suggests his ERA has actually been a touch unlucky relative to his stuff. The Yankees' lineup carries real thump (Ben Rice's power, elite barrel rates) while Philadelphia's offense has been ice-cold, hitting just .222 against right-handers in July and .202 over its last 10 games — a tension between two dominant arms and one slumping lineup that should make for a tight, well-pitched, genuinely watchable game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

A high-octane pitching duel featuring a hard-throwing flamethrower on the comeback trail against a wily veteran, this one's near the top of the watchability charts for the day. Jared Jones has been the whole story in Pittsburgh this year — he burst onto the scene in 2024 throwing upper-90s fastballs with elite ride, pairing it with a devastating slider before missing all of 2025 following UCL surgery, then getting drilled in the elbow by a line drive shortly after his 2026 return. He's shaken that off and then some: his velocity (98.6 mph) and swinging-strike rate both grade out as elite, driving a pNERD of 11.85 that sits well above today's average and near the historic 95th percentile. Boyd, on the other side, isn't flashy but gets outs efficiently with a strong xFIP-, and his own solid pNERD of 6.41 makes this a legitimately compelling top-of-the-rotation matchup rather than a mismatch. Both teams bring plus offenses and above-average tNERDs, with the Cubs' fielding grading out as one of the best marks in the sample and the Pirates getting a lift from underdog payroll scrappiness. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 17.25 — comfortably above today's 11.12 average and one of the better games on the historic distribution too.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

The Dodgers roll into Queens boasting the best record in baseball and a lineup that hits like it too, while the Mets limp along as this year's designated trade-deadline sellers — but both starters have swing-and-miss stuff that makes this more watchable than the standings suggest. Roki Sasaki's ERA (4.98) doesn't match his arm: Sasaki's underlying stuff is real — he touched 101.8 mph and struck out five over 5.2 scoreless innings in his last outing against the Yankees, and his positive luck score suggests better results are coming. Sean Manaea, at 34, has quietly found something new: Sean Manaea has quietly stabilized since moving back into the Mets rotation in mid-June, posting a 3.66 ERA over his last 11 appearances, and his changeup-heavy deception shows up in a tidy 17.3-second pace. The Dodgers already swept this series back in April, and the tNERD gap (9.68 to 4.30) reflects that gulf — LA's power, defense, and bullpen depth against a Mets club that's below average almost everywhere. At 13.91, this gNERD sits comfortably above the historic average and near the middle of today's slate, buoyed almost entirely by pitching intrigue rather than a competitive team matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Skubal's stat is Cy Young-caliber ace numbers and I have the pitcher pNERD score info in the supporting stats already. Let me write the summary now.

Tarik Skubal is must-watch television even when the surrounding baseball is forgettable, and this game is basically the Skubal Show with a mediocre supporting cast. Detroit's ace carries a pNERD of 12.76, a mark near the top of the pool today, built on elite whiff rates, a strong strikeout-to-walk profile, mid-90s heat, and an xFIP- that suggests he's been getting a bit unlucky, so more dominance may be coming. Opposing him is Kansas City's Beck Way, for whom we simply don't have usable statistical data, so treat his half of the ledger as a mystery box. The larger context: Detroit sits 6 games back in the division race, making every win meaningful as the August trade deadline approaches, and their solid home record gives them a genuine advantage at Comerica Park, while Kansas City is playing for pride and development and has struggled on the road. Detroit's tNERD edges Kansas City's on the strength of barrel rate and some positive regression-luck, but neither offense is thrilling. At 12.68, the gNERD lands comfortably above the historical average, essentially entirely because of the pitcher on the mound for Detroit — watch for Skubal, tolerate the rest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Beck Way, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Good news for pitching nerds, mixed news for offense fans: this is a first-place battle with two quietly effective arms and a whole lot of Rangers luck riding on borrowed time. Texas sits atop the AL West at 51-51 while Seattle lurks a game back, and Globe Life's roof will be closed, favoring pitchers slightly. Bryce Miller brings the better underlying stuff by far — his xFIP- of 74 and strong strikeout and swinging-strike marks push his pNERD to 9.05, well above average, even though Miller has lost four of his past five starts despite a 3.18 ERA over that span, and he's historically scuffled against Texas specifically. Gore counters with mid-90s velocity and solid strikeout stuff, but his 4.80 ERA over 110.2 innings comes with a roughly 3.97 xERA, suggesting his results have been worse than his underlying process — some positive regression may be overdue. Texas's team NERD is inflated largely by a startling +34 luck figure, meaning their record is outperforming their actual output, so don't expect that to hold forever. At 12.14, this gNERD sits solidly above the historical average and near today's slate's middle, worth a look mostly for the pitching matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

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San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

Both teams are stumbling toward the deadline with little to distinguish them beyond who trips first, though the Marlins' surprising cheapness and youth still make for oddly likable rosters, and Tatís swinging a hot bat gives San Diego a reason to tune in even as the wins dry up.

Both clubs arrive limping: the Marlins are mired in a nine-game losing streak while the Padres have dropped five of seven coming out of the All-Star break to match their low mark on the season at three games under .500, with Ty France admitting "Given the time of year, we know where we're at... it's a weird spot to be in". Offensively there's some juice — Fernando Tatis Jr. has 12 hits over the last 10 games and a slash line of .308/.426/.615 — which helps explain the Padres' solid tNERD, boosted further by strong baserunning and bullpen marks. Miami's tNERD is buoyed by a young, cheap roster and positive luck, suggesting better days may be ahead even amid the skid. On the mound, Germán Márquez is unremarkable statistically and still working back from injury: he's in a managed return from forearm nerve inflammation, and has paired a short leash with poor strike-throwing efficiency, having completed five innings once in four appearances since returning in July. Miami's starter is still unnamed, so plan for a bullpen game and a team-driven watch rather than a pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Miami Marlins

Germán Márquez, San Diego Padres

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Great start, blowing minds since McClanahan came back from Tommy John surgery, is now working against a Guardians lineup that's been feast-or-famine all year.

A solid two-way pitching matchup with two lefties who miss bats, plus one of the more compelling injury-recovery storylines in the AL. Shane McClanahan, still building back up after his long layoff, gets the ball for Tampa Bay, and while he allowed six runs over five innings during a 6-1 road loss to the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, his underlying stuff — mid-90s velocity and a quick pace — still grades out as the best arm on the mound today. He'll also be seeing Cleveland for the first time since allowing two runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss in an AL wild-card-series game on Oct. 7, 2022. Cantillo, making his second career start against Tampa Bay after tossing five scoreless innings in a 6-1 home win over the Rays on Sept. 14, 2024, brings solid strikeout stuff of his own. Team-wise, Cleveland's tNERD comfortably outpaces Tampa Bay's, thanks to superior baserunning, a deeper bullpen, and a young, bargain-payroll roster, though both clubs' lineups have shockingly low barrel rates, meaning don't expect a parade of homers. With a gNERD near 12, comfortably above the historical average, this one's worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Tampa Bay Rays

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Good enough info found. Let me draft the summary now.

A rookie southpaw making his way through the big leagues faces a veteran on a nice run — and Washington's offense gives this game more juice than the modest scores suggest. Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez brings a tidy résumé this season, but his peripherals are shakier than the surface numbers: Eduardo Rodriguez owns an 8-3 record and a 2.62 ERA on the season, yet his below-average whiff and strike rates drag his pNERD down to a middling 2.37. Across the mound, Washington counters with rookie left-hander Carson Palmquist, who is 0-1 with an 8.74 ERA in limited big-league action — a small sample and no underlying data means his pNERD sits at a flat zero, so consider it an unknown quantity rather than a red flag. The pitching matchup isn't the draw here; the Nationals' lineup is, ranking near the top of today's tNERD scores thanks to strong batting runs, an excellent barrel rate, and a young, affordable roster. Arizona counters with plus defense and baserunning but a bottom-tier bat. Arizona has won eight of its last 10 while swinging hot bats through their midweek series with the Cardinals, giving this series-opener some current form to watch, even if the overall gNERD of 10.86 lands right around today's middle of the pack.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Washington Nationals

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Carson Palmquist, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

A middling matchup on paper, livened up by a starting pitcher who's owned this exact opponent all year. Rhett Lowder comes in fresh off a disaster start against Colorado, but oddly enough he's been a Cardinals killer this season, having tossed eight scoreless innings across two outings against St. Louis, including three shutout frames with just one hit back in June. That history matters more than his ugly overall xFIP- given his opponent tonight, though his below-average swinging-strike and strike rates keep his pNERD (3.91) modest. Dustin May offers the more traditionally interesting arm, sitting in the mid-90s with plus strikeout stuff, though his plodding 21.4-second pace works against him and he's currently getting a bit lucky given his peripherals, suggesting some regression could be coming. Team-wise, St. Louis (6.12 tNERD) brings a young, cheap roster with solid glovework, while Cincinnati (4.04 tNERD) is dragged down by a shaky bullpen and underwhelming bats. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 10.16, almost exactly average both historically and among today's slate — a perfectly reasonable but unspectacular watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

A last-place-in-swagger Orioles team riding recent good vibes hosts the National League's best record, and the pitching matchup keeps things closer to a coin flip than the standings suggest. Atlanta strolls into Camden Yards carrying MLB's best record and a five-wins-in-seven surge since the All-Star break, while Baltimore just snapped a 15-game losing skid to the Red Sox and is clawing back into the AL Wild Card race — proof that even a 50-53 club can still make things interesting. Grant Holmes gets the ball for Atlanta after a stretch bettors are buzzing about, with one outlet noting Grant Holmes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his last five starts, though the underlying numbers (xFIP- of 110, a below-average mark) tell a less flattering story than the highlight reel. Trevor Rogers takes the mound for Baltimore, but with no stats logged here his pNERD sits at zero — an unknown quantity rather than a bad one. The gNERD of 9.66 lands a bit below the historical average of 10.11, mostly because neither the pitching matchup nor the run-scoring markets scream fireworks, even with a real playoff-race undertone on Baltimore's side.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Baltimore Orioles

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

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Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

The White Sox's surprise season keeps rolling, though the pitching matchup here won't set your hair on fire. Chicago sits atop the AL Central at 54-47, and their tNERD of 8.50 reflects a young, cheap, well-run outfit — opposing hitters have actually been finding Chicago's bullpen for homers lately (11 in the last 10 games), but the underlying batted-ball data and bargain-bin payroll still score well. Houston's 3.25 tNERD is the drag here, hurt by shaky baserunning and a bullpen underperforming its peripherals, even with Yordan Alvarez doing Yordan Alvarez things — batting .328 with 34 home runs and 77 RBI. On the mound, Davis Martin (5.60 pNERD) is the quiet story of the summer, backing a tidy xFIP- of 90 with a quick pace. Spencer Arrighetti (1.09 pNERD) is the opposite: after a 9.00 ERA in June, he's allowed just one run in two of his three outings this month, but the walks and lack of bat-missing keep his NERD grade low. With a 9.22 gNERD sitting below both the historical and today's averages, this is a fine game if you're already watching, not one to rearrange your evening for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Houston Astros

Chicago White Sox

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox, 4:15p

Summary

A wild-card scrap dressed up as a get-right game, with just enough quirky history to keep it interesting. Boston, clinging to a playoff spot, comes in fresh off a nine-game winning streak that "was going to end at some point. It just happened to end" per interim manager Chad Tracy, while Toronto sits last in the AL East despite oddly owning this matchup — the Blue Jays have taken five of six against the Sox, including a three-game sweep at Fenway from June 16-18. Willson Contreras is scorching hot, hitting .381 in 12 games this month with 11 runs, four doubles, four home runs, giving Boston's above-average bats (tNERD 5.82) some juice. Toronto's offense, by contrast, drags its tNERD down to 2.09 with weak barrel and baserunning marks. On the mound, 22-year-old Trey Yesavage brings youthful upside (pNERD 4.64, boosted by age and a solid swinging-strike rate) despite a middling xFIP-, while Patrick Sandoval is a total mystery statistically — though history says beware, as Sandoval has faced the Blue Jays twice in his career, posting a 6.00 ERA and no decisions in nine innings. Overall gNERD of 8.77 lands below both the historic and today's averages — watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 1:10p

Summary

The Brewers are running away with the NL Central and Drohan is quietly building one of the better rotation stories in Milwaukee, but this is still a heavy-favorite mismatch against a last-place Rockies club. Colorado's tNERD of 1.61 is grim across the board—bad batting runs, weak barrel rate, shaky defense—while Milwaukee's 8.62 is buoyed by a young, athletic roster with strong baserunning and bullpen numbers. On the mound, Shane Drohan (pNERD 7.16) is the reason to tune in: he's 5-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, with 76 strikeouts, and is looking for his fourth straight quality start. Tomoyuki Sugano (pNERD -0.16) is the opposite story—he's 9-4, the first Rockies starter to reach nine wins since 2023, but the run prevention underneath is ordinary, with opponents hitting .268 and 18 home runs allowed in 90.2 innings. With a gNERD of 8.62, this sits below the historic median and near the bottom of today's slate—watchable mainly for Drohan's arm, not the overall product.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Colorado Rockies

Milwaukee Brewers

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

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Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

A last-place scrap between two teams playing out the string, elevated only by Logan Webb doing Logan Webb things and Mike Trout returning to a ballpark that has never liked him. The Angels (41-62) and Giants (42-60) enter with deadline-day fog hanging over both rosters, and San Francisco arrives on a five-game skid, so nobody's exactly riding high. Webb (pNERD 5.50) is the draw here, backing a strong 3.87 ERA in 107 2/3 innings pitched, with 85 strikeouts, and his xFIP- of 89 confirms the peripherals back it up — plus he's owned Trout in their rare head-to-head meetings. Grayson Rodriguez (pNERD 2.69) is the opposite story, a well-regarded arm having a miserable time of it, much better on the road (2-0 with a 3.48 ERA) than at home (1-3, 10.22 ERA) this season — tonight being a road start offers some hope. Team-wise, both clubs are light, with the Angels' shaky glovework and baserunning dragging things down. The gNERD of 7.01 sits below both the historical and today's averages, making this one you can skip unless you're just here for Webb's start or nostalgia for Trout in orange and black territory.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Los Angeles Angels

San Francisco Giants

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Athletics @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

Two rebuilding-ish clubs meet in Minneapolis, and neither the NERD math nor the standings suggest you need to clear your schedule for this one. This is a low-end gNERD of 5.46, well below the historic average of 10.11 and near the bottom of today's slate, which tops out at 17.50 — so temper expectations accordingly.

The Twins are still clinging to wild-card hopes while the A's have watched their own playoff chances fade, and it's Minnesota looking for their third win in a row as they open a home series. On the mound, Zebby Matthews (pNERD 5.95, solidly above average) brings mid-90s velocity and a quick pace, though he's trying to bounce back from his worst start of 2026 after the Chicago Cubs slammed him for 10 runs. His control and youth (26) give him real swing-and-miss upside even with modest underlying fielding-independent numbers. Jacob Lopez is the problem here — a pNERD of -1.02 reflects a below-average fastball, shaky strike-throwing, and an xFIP- that's ugly across the board, though he is looking for his first victory since May 24 against the San Diego Padres. Both offenses are mediocre and the bullpens and fielding for both clubs are genuinely bad, dragging tNERD scores to 3.69 and 2.31. Watch only if you're a completist.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Athletics

Minnesota Twins

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

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  MLB: What to watch on July 23, 2026