Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on July 25, 2026

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
16.0 3:40p Chicago Cubs 8.3 Pittsburgh Pirates 7.4 Shota Imanaga 5.9 Paul Skenes 10.3
15.5 4:15p Los Angeles Dodgers 9.9 New York Mets 4.3 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 8.1 Nolan McLean 8.7
14.3 1:10p San Diego Padres 9.2 Miami Marlins 9.5 JP Sears 2.0 Eury Pérez 7.9
13.7 3:05p New York Yankees 8.5 Philadelphia Phillies 5.4 Ryan Weathers 8.5 TBD No data
13.0 1:05p Arizona Diamondbacks 5.4 Washington Nationals 9.3 Mitch Bratt No data Foster Griffin 6.4
12.4 4:15p Seattle Mariners 2.7 Texas Rangers 6.1 Bryan Woo 7.7 Nathan Eovaldi 8.4
11.2 1:10p Toronto Blue Jays 2.1 Boston Red Sox 6.0 Dylan Cease 10.2 Sonny Gray 4.0
10.2 4:05p Atlanta Braves 6.8 Baltimore Orioles 4.8 Bryce Elder 5.3 Brandon Young 3.6
9.9 4:10p Houston Astros 3.5 Chicago White Sox 8.4 Hunter Brown 1.7 Sean Burke 6.2
9.6 4:15p Cincinnati Reds 4.3 St. Louis Cardinals 6.0 Hunter Greene No data Andre Pallante 3.9
9.1 10:10a Kansas City Royals 2.8 Detroit Tigers 4.8 Michael Wacha 4.2 Casey Mize 6.4
8.7 4:10p Colorado Rockies 1.7 Milwaukee Brewers 8.7 Ryan Feltner 2.5 Robert Gasser 4.5
8.7 3:10p Cleveland Guardians 7.5 Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 Tanner Bibee 3.2 Nick Martinez 2.4
7.8 4:10p Athletics 3.4 Minnesota Twins 2.3 Mason Barnett No data TBD No data
5.9 1:05p Los Angeles Angels 1.4 San Francisco Giants 4.3 Ryan Johnson 5.0 Robbie Ray 1.0

Notes:

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

A rare treat: this is the day's best watch, headlined by a legit ace-versus-ace pitching duel with actual stakes attached. Paul Skenes brings a 10.25 pNERD—tops among today's slate—built on elite xFIP- and a 96.9 mph heater, and even though his surface numbers have wobbled lately (a 4.93 ERA in his last seven starts, "nearly a run and a half higher than his three-year career mark"), the underlying stuff still grades out excellent. Across from him, Shota Imanaga (5.93 pNERD) has quietly caught fire, posting a 1.62 ERA over three July starts and threw seven scoreless innings last time out. Both clubs bring real thump: the Cubs' 8.29 tNERD leans on standout fielding and batting runs, while Pittsburgh's 7.44 mixes strong baserunning with a payroll-underdog appeal. The two teams are tied 4-4 in the season series, and with both teams carrying genuine postseason ambitions, the Cubs at 58-45 clinging to a wild-card spot and Pittsburgh right on the edge of that conversation, there's context to match the talent. At 15.96, the gNERD score sits well above both the historic 95th percentile (14.76) and today's average (11.06)—about as good as it gets.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 45.3 7.1% 1.6 46.4 -8.4 $246.2M 29.8 4.0 3.01 3.15 — —
Z-score 1.52 -0.76 0.29 2.89 -1.29 0.50 0.67 0.23 1.22 1.62 — —
tNERD 1.52 -0.76 0.29 2.89 -1.29 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.61 0.81 4.00 8.29

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 42.3 8.3% 6.2 -14.6 18.1 $119.1M 28.8 0.0 2.01 1.98 — —
Z-score 1.42 0.46 1.31 -0.89 -0.03 -0.96 -0.20 0.00 -0.74 -0.86 — —
tNERD 1.42 0.46 1.31 -0.89 -0.03 0.96 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.44

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 93 14.1% 65.7% 91.8 mph 32 18.9s 1 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.42 1.65 0.77 -1.09 0.86 -0.09 — — — —
pNERD 0.83 0.82 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.93

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 74 13.0% 64.9% 96.9 mph 24 19.3s 6 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.50 1.13 0.43 1.24 -1.25 0.25 — — — —
pNERD 3.00 0.56 0.22 1.24 1.25 -0.12 0.30 0.00 3.80 10.25

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets, 4:15p

Summary

Good pitchers' duel — the Dodgers' ace against the Mets' emerging rookie phenom, and both are dealing right now. Yamamoto and McLean actually met once before this season in a tight April duel, and this rematch has real juice: Yamamoto is coming off a pedestrian 3.60 ERA as recently as May 12 before pitching to a 2.20 mark over 10 starts, including his last outing, a complete-game two-run performance. McLean, meanwhile, has been quietly dominant, with a 0.75 ERA over his last four starts, including an active streak of 17 consecutive innings without an earned run, built on a new approach of lasting at least six innings in six straight starts by peppering the strike zone with four-seamers and sinkers early in counts rather than his breaking stuff. Both pitchers grade out well above average here — McLean edges Yamamoto slightly thanks to youth and a quicker pace, and their near-identical xFIP- marks confirm this isn't just ERA magic. The Dodgers bring by far the day's best offense, riding a 65-38 record, while the Mets counter with a middling lineup — but that pitching matchup alone makes this one of the stronger watches on the board, well above both the historical and today's average gNERD marks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 64.2 9.3% -1.3 17.3 40.9 $413.5M 30.0 6.0 2.45 2.51 — —
Z-score 2.14 1.48 -0.36 1.09 1.06 2.41 0.90 0.34 0.12 0.26 — —
tNERD 2.14 1.48 -0.36 1.09 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.06 0.13 4.00 9.94

New York Mets

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -36.9 8.6% -4.1 -7.5 29.1 $374.9M 29.9 -2.0 3.32 3.05 — —
Z-score -1.18 0.77 -0.98 -0.45 0.50 1.97 0.85 -0.11 1.82 1.41 — —
tNERD -1.18 0.77 -0.98 -0.45 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.70 4.00 4.27

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 78 11.6% 66.1% 95.9 mph 27 19.5s -12 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.27 0.46 0.90 0.78 -0.46 0.41 — — — —
pNERD 2.55 0.23 0.45 0.78 0.46 -0.21 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.07

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 78 9.8% 63.1% 95.5 mph 24 17.4s 4 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.27 -0.39 -0.32 0.60 -1.25 -1.33 — — — —
pNERD 2.55 -0.19 -0.16 0.60 1.25 0.67 0.20 0.00 3.80 8.71

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San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

A rare high-end matinee: young flamethrower Eury Pérez against a lineup that's finally waking up, in a game that ranks near the top of both today's slate and the season overall. This one carries a gNERD of 14.31, comfortably above the historic median and near the upper end of today's games, driven almost entirely by two well-rounded, entertaining teams rather than a marquee pitching duel. Pérez is the story here — the 23-year-old is carrying a 1.14 ERA over his past seven starts, most recently allowing one hit over six shutout innings against Milwaukee, and his 98 mph heat and elite swinging-strike rate back up a strong 7.91 pNERD. Sears, by contrast, sits at a modest 1.99 pNERD — he's bounced back in July with a 2.51 ERA in three starts after a rough start to his Padres tenure, but the peripherals (poor strike-throwing, plodding pace) suggest he's more innings-eater than headliner. Where this game earns its keep is on the position-player side: both clubs grade out near 9.5 tNERD, with Miami's young, cheap, feisty roster and San Diego's baserunning/bullpen/fielding combo giving this the look of two frisky underdogs — San Diego's lineup has averaged 6.71 runs per game since the break, including a 19-run outburst, despite going just 2-5 over that span. Worth tuning in for the contrast alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -30.3 8.3% 5.8 16.6 47.3 $255.5M 29.9 -12.0 3.47 3.37 — —
Z-score -0.96 0.46 1.22 1.04 1.36 0.60 0.85 -0.67 2.12 2.09 — —
tNERD -0.96 0.46 1.22 1.04 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 1.04 4.00 9.23

Miami Marlins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 3.3 6.7% 7.3 3.2 29.9 $81.5M 27.4 24.0 1.79 1.66 — —
Z-score 0.14 -1.16 1.55 0.21 0.54 -1.39 -1.49 1.35 -1.17 -1.54 — —
tNERD 0.14 -1.16 1.55 0.21 0.54 1.39 1.49 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.50

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 103 9.2% 61.2% 92.8 mph 30 21.1s 5 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.16 -0.67 -1.08 -0.63 0.33 1.74 — — — —
pNERD -0.31 -0.34 -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.87 0.25 0.00 3.80 1.99

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 94 13.9% 63.9% 98.2 mph 23 20.8s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.36 1.55 0.02 1.83 -1.51 1.49 — — — —
pNERD 0.72 0.78 0.01 1.83 1.51 -0.75 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.91

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New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

A high-scoring matchup between two teams fighting for their playoff lives, even if the Yankees are dragging some serious offensive weight right now. Both clubs are chasing October — Philadelphia sits 5.5 games out in its own division, cannot afford to let a three-game losing streak deepen into something more damaging — while New York is two games back in the AL East, close enough that every series carries weight, though they're doing it without Judge, who's on the 60-day IL with a rib stress fracture, and Stanton, sidelined with a leg issue. Ryan Weathers takes the ball for New York and grades out well by the underlying numbers — his pNERD of 8.53 reflects a strong xFIP-, decent whiffs, and some tough puck luck that suggests better results are coming than his surface-level 4.40 ERA. Philadelphia's counterpart is unannounced, so that half of the equation is a coin flip. The Yankees' offense and bullpen numbers push their tNERD near the top of today's slate, giving this game a gNERD of 13.70 — comfortably above both the historical and today's averages.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

New York Yankees

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 21.1 9.5% 5.0 3.0 35.8 $337.1M 29.9 -14.0 2.08 2.22 — —
Z-score 0.73 1.68 1.04 0.20 0.82 1.54 0.85 -0.78 -0.61 -0.36 — —
tNERD 0.73 1.68 1.04 0.20 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.47

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -43.9 7.8% 6.5 -5.2 38.8 $309.8M 30.5 -16.0 2.92 2.69 — —
Z-score -1.41 -0.05 1.38 -0.31 0.96 1.22 1.36 -0.89 1.03 0.64 — —
tNERD -1.41 -0.05 1.38 -0.31 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.32 4.00 5.41

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 79 11.8% 63.7% 95.2 mph 26 19.3s 27 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.22 0.56 -0.08 0.46 -0.72 0.25 — — — —
pNERD 2.43 0.28 -0.04 0.46 0.72 -0.12 1.00 0.00 3.80 8.53

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Foster Griffin has quietly turned into one of the better stories in Washington this year, and a rookie-armed Arizona club (offensively slumping, but shockingly nimble in the field) gives this game more juice than the standings might suggest. Griffin, a 30-year-old lefty, has been outstanding for a last-place Nationals team, sitting at 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 111 strikeouts, and his peripherals back it up — his xFIP- of 85 and a healthy strike rate drive a 6.41 pNERD, comfortably above average for today's slate. Across the mound, Mitch Bratt gets a 0.00 pNERD simply because we don't have the data to grade him yet, which itself is a small novelty worth tuning in for. The bigger story might be the Nationals' offense, which ranks near the top of today's games in batting runs, barrel rate, and baserunning — a genuinely fun, young lineup that overrides a bullpen that's been a mess (their -24.9 bullpen runs is a real sore spot). Arizona counters with plus defense and baserunning but a punchless bat so far. At 13.05, the gNERD comes in above the historical average and above today's average too, making this a solid, watchable pick even without a marquee pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -29.4 7.1% 4.2 28.7 26.9 $231.6M 30.2 -22.0 2.19 1.92 — —
Z-score -0.93 -0.76 0.86 1.79 0.39 0.33 1.08 -1.23 -0.39 -0.99 — —
tNERD -0.93 -0.76 0.86 1.79 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.36

Washington Nationals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 51.9 9.1% 8.8 -3.9 -24.9 $114.5M 27.1 -31.0 2.00 2.20 — —
Z-score 1.74 1.27 1.89 -0.23 -2.08 -1.01 -1.71 -1.73 -0.75 -0.40 — —
tNERD 1.74 1.27 1.89 -0.23 -2.08 1.01 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.32

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 85 11.0% 66.8% 91.4 mph 30 18.6s -21 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.87 0.18 1.22 -1.27 0.33 -0.34 — — — —
pNERD 1.75 0.09 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.41

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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 4:15p

Summary

I have enough information from the searches already gathered to write a solid, specific summary.

Two of the best pitchers in baseball this year face off in a game that means real division standings, not just style points. Bryan Woo and Nathan Eovaldi both grade out among the more effective starters, and the Rangers-Mariners series carries genuine stakes in a scrambled AL West race.

This is a rematch of an ongoing AL West battle where the AL West has been wide open all season, with the Rangers clinging to a half-game lead in first place while the Mariners are eager to re-establish their position as division favorites. Seattle arrives in a funk — still searching for answers after a rough loss to the Reds, with the trade deadline approaching and this series carrying real weight on how the team approaches upgrading the roster — while the Rangers lead the season series 4-2, meaning anything more than a split would give them the tiebreaker if the race comes down to September.

The pitching is the real draw. Eovaldi's xFIP- of 79 and elite swinging-strike rate power a pNERD near 8.4, while Woo backs him with plus velocity and command for a 7.66 mark — both well above today's average of 5.52 and comfortably in the upper quartile of the historic range. Texas's tNERD (6.06) outpaces Seattle's shaky, error-prone unit (2.69, dragged down by weak fielding and baserunning), though the Rangers' outsized batting luck (+34, one of the highest values you'll see) suggests some regression could be coming. Combined, the 12.38 gNERD sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — a solid, quietly compelling pitchers' duel wrapped in postseason-race tension.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -1.9 7.8% -3.9 -23.2 22.1 $196.7M 28.4 4.0 2.35 2.52 — —
Z-score -0.03 -0.05 -0.94 -1.42 0.16 -0.07 -0.52 0.23 -0.07 0.28 — —
tNERD -0.03 -0.05 -0.94 -1.42 0.16 0.07 0.52 0.23 0.00 0.14 4.00 2.69

Texas Rangers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 18.9 7.7% -2.6 -5.5 31.5 $201.9M 30.3 34.0 2.01 2.08 — —
Z-score 0.65 -0.15 -0.65 -0.32 0.61 -0.01 1.17 1.91 -0.74 -0.65 — —
tNERD 0.65 -0.15 -0.65 -0.32 0.61 0.01 0.00 1.91 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.06

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 89 11.6% 67.6% 95.8 mph 26 20.8s 17 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.64 0.46 1.55 0.74 -0.72 1.49 — — — —
pNERD 1.29 0.23 0.77 0.74 0.72 -0.75 0.85 0.00 3.80 7.66

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 79 15.2% 67.3% 94.2 mph 36 20.6s 23 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.22 2.17 1.40 0.01 1.91 1.33 — — — —
pNERD 2.43 1.09 0.70 0.01 0.00 -0.66 1.00 0.00 3.80 8.36

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Dylan Cease's arm alone makes this worth a look, even if the Blue Jays around him have gone ice-cold. Cease brings elite swing-and-miss stuff to Fenway, and the underlying gap between Toronto's tNERD (2.07) and Boston's tNERD (6.04) tells the real story: this is a middling offense club facing a Boston squad that fields it well and gets more from its bullpen, even while missing key pieces.

Cease's pNERD of 10.23 is the headline here — Dylan Cease enters at 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and 155 strikeouts over 104.1 innings, backed by a filthy xFIP- and mid-90s heat that should keep this watchable even if Toronto's lineup keeps sleepwalking. Sonny Gray, by contrast, checks in with a modest 4.01 pNERD; his stuff has ticked down and his pace is glacial, though his command remains sharp enough that Boston has hit .245 over its past 23 with a .421 slugging percentage behind him. The bigger subplot: Toronto has hit just .207 over its past 24 games with a .264 on-base percentage, a genuinely miserable stretch, while this version of the Red Sox is without Marcelo Mayer, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony and Isiah Kiner-Falefa in various states of injury. With a gNERD of 11.18, this sits a touch above the historical average and right around today's midpoint — mostly worth tuning in for Cease's punch-outs rather than a laugher of a lineup battle.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -44.6 6.3% -4.9 12.9 33.7 $306.1M 30.1 -5.0 3.10 2.39 — —
Z-score -1.43 -1.57 -1.16 0.82 0.72 1.18 0.99 -0.28 1.40 0.01 — —
tNERD -1.43 -1.57 -1.16 0.82 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 4.00 2.07

Boston Red Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -24.5 7.2% 1.7 19.9 38.5 $263.6M 29.2 11.0 2.47 2.64 — —
Z-score -0.77 -0.66 0.31 1.25 0.94 0.70 0.17 0.62 0.16 0.54 — —
tNERD -0.77 -0.66 0.31 1.25 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.08 0.27 4.00 6.04

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 63 14.8% 62.6% 97.4 mph 30 19.2s 1 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.13 1.98 -0.52 1.47 0.33 0.16 — — — —
pNERD 4.26 0.99 -0.26 1.47 0.00 -0.08 0.05 0.00 3.80 10.23

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 88 9.4% 64.1% 92.0 mph 36 21.3s -31 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.70 -0.58 0.11 -1.00 1.91 1.91 — — — —
pNERD 1.40 -0.29 0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.95 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.01

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Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

A solid mid-tier matchup with a pitching subplot worth tuning into: Bryce Elder trying to shake off a rough stretch against Baltimore's quietly excellent rookie-ish righty. Atlanta arrives with the better all-around roster (tNERD 6.78 vs. 4.79), fueled by a strong bullpen and barrel-rate advantage, while Baltimore's lineup and pen are merely adequate. Elder carries a 4.06 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 19 starts, but across his past three outings owns a bloated 6.43 ERA and has allowed a .283 batting average against — though a report suggests he was dealing with fatigue and had a better start coming out of the All-Star break, so there's a track-record-versus-recent-blip storyline here. Young, meanwhile, is 8-2 with a 3.25 ERA, and 3-0 across his past five starts, lasting seven innings in each of his past two, though his underlying xFIP- suggests he's overachieving. Elder's excellent pace and youth push his pNERD to a respectable 5.27; Young trails at 3.56. Overall gNERD of 10.20 sits almost exactly at the historical median — a perfectly fine, unspectacular Saturday option rather than a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 5.4 8.8% -0.1 9.5 41.5 $249.8M 30.5 -36.0 2.36 2.36 — —
Z-score 0.21 0.97 -0.09 0.60 1.09 0.54 1.36 -2.01 -0.05 -0.06 — —
tNERD 0.21 0.97 -0.09 0.60 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.78

Baltimore Orioles

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 17.4 8.2% -1.5 -9.9 26.7 $214.8M 29.0 -4.0 2.82 2.10 — —
Z-score 0.61 0.36 -0.40 -0.60 0.38 0.14 -0.02 -0.22 0.85 -0.61 — —
tNERD 0.61 0.36 -0.40 -0.60 0.38 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.42 0.00 4.00 4.79

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 97 9.3% 63.8% 91.9 mph 27 16.7s -1 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.19 -0.63 -0.01 -1.04 -0.46 -1.92 — — — —
pNERD 0.37 -0.31 -0.01 0.00 0.46 0.96 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.27

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 108 10.5% 64.7% 94.1 mph 27 18.9s -29 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.44 -0.06 0.34 -0.04 -0.46 -0.09 — — — —
pNERD -0.88 -0.03 0.17 0.00 0.46 0.04 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.56

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Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

The White Sox's surprising season keeps chugging along, and this one pits a wild-armed Hunter Brown against a White Sox team that's quietly become one of the more watchable outfits in baseball. Chicago enters with a 54-47 record and a tNERD of 8.42 — buoyed by a young, cheap roster (age z-score of -1.76, payroll z-score of -1.11) that's overperforming its peripherals, plus a bullpen that's been one of the better units in the league. Houston, fresh off a sweep of Miami and now pointed at something bigger, brings Yordan Alvarez, who's the reason Houston's offense demands respect regardless of the opponent, hitting .327 with 34 home runs and 77 RBI. On the mound, Sean Burke (pNERD 6.25) is the better bet, with a strong 92 xFIP- and solid strikeout stuff. Hunter Brown, despite premium velocity, has been erratic — his putrid Strike% z-score (-2.54) suggests command problems that are dragging his pNERD down to just 1.68. Overall gNERD of 9.90 sits right around the historical median — not essential, but the White Sox's young charm and Alvarez's power make it a decent watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Houston Astros

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 16.9 8.3% -4.1 -6.2 10.3 $232.7M 28.9 -3.0 2.17 1.99 — —
Z-score 0.59 0.46 -0.98 -0.37 -0.40 0.34 -0.16 -0.16 -0.42 -0.84 — —
tNERD 0.59 0.46 -0.98 -0.37 -0.40 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.46

Chicago White Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 11.8 8.4% -1.2 2.8 29.6 $105.8M 27.1 -22.0 1.82 2.57 — —
Z-score 0.42 0.56 -0.34 0.19 0.52 -1.11 -1.76 -1.23 -1.11 0.39 — —
tNERD 0.42 0.56 -0.34 0.19 0.52 1.11 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.19 4.00 8.42

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 110 10.0% 57.7% 95.8 mph 27 20.9s -13 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.56 -0.29 -2.54 0.74 -0.46 1.58 — — — —
pNERD -1.11 -0.15 -1.27 0.74 0.46 -0.79 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.68

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 92 10.7% 66.8% 94.8 mph 26 19.3s -16 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.47 0.04 1.20 0.28 -0.72 0.25 — — — —
pNERD 0.95 0.02 0.60 0.28 0.72 -0.12 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.25

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Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15p

Summary

A middling matchup elevated mainly by curiosity about Hunter Greene's arm. The Reds and Cardinals aren't tNERD powerhouses—Cincinnati sits below average on offense and bullpen while St. Louis leans on youth and steady fielding—but the real hook here is Greene, who's still finding his footing after having bone chips removed from his throwing elbow during Spring Training, with a projected recovery timeline of around four months. Since returning, he's been wildly inconsistent, swinging between an eight-run clunker and a dominant seven-scoreless-inning, 12-strikeout performance, which is exactly the kind of boom-or-bust unpredictability that makes a start worth tuning into even without reliable NERD data (his pNERD reads zero simply because we lack a sample). Pallante, by contrast, is the steadier hand—a 95-mph-plus sinkerballer with playable peripherals backing a 3.93 pNERD. Cincinnati arrives on a three-game win streak despite sitting last in the NL Central, while St. Louis's younger, cheaper roster and strong glovework nudge their tNERD to a decent 6.01. Overall gNERD of 9.62 lands a bit below the historical average, making this a watch-if-curious rather than must-see slot on today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Cincinnati Reds

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -44.4 9.3% -0.9 -8.1 -13.1 $147.4M 28.0 17.0 2.09 2.11 — —
Z-score -1.42 1.48 -0.27 -0.49 -1.51 -0.63 -0.94 0.96 -0.59 -0.59 — —
tNERD -1.42 1.48 -0.27 -0.49 -1.51 0.63 0.94 0.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.31

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -23.6 7.4% 1.1 12.0 3.5 $111.2M 26.9 -19.0 2.17 2.15 — —
Z-score -0.74 -0.45 0.17 0.76 -0.72 -1.05 -1.94 -1.06 -0.43 -0.50 — —
tNERD -0.74 -0.45 0.17 0.76 -0.72 1.05 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.01

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 97 8.4% 62.9% 95.3 mph 27 20.2s 0 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.19 -1.05 -0.38 0.51 -0.46 0.99 — — — —
pNERD 0.37 -0.53 -0.19 0.51 0.46 -0.50 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.93

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Good enough info gathered. Time to write summary.

A middling AL Central afternoon with a genuine trade-deadline subplot: this is Casey Mize possibly making his last start in a Tigers uniform. With the deadline days away, Detroit's impending free agent has quietly been one of the better stories in this series—he's battled groin tightness at various times this season, but when he's been on the mound, he has delivered quality innings, allowing two or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 starts. His pNERD of 6.40 backs that up, built on a strong xFIP- and above-average swinging-strike rate. Wacha, at 4.19 pNERD, is a solid complementary arm—though he's had a rough July, posting a 5.91 ERA and 5.36 FIP over his last three starts—but he does own a history of tormenting Detroit, including a scoreless outing earlier this year. Team-wise, neither club is thrilling: Kansas City's bullpen is a genuine sinkhole (tNERD 2.77), while Detroit's 4.77 gets a boost mostly from barrel rate and some broadcast polish. The 9.06 gNERD lands below the historic middle and today's average, so temper expectations, but the Mize storyline and both pitchers' recent quality starts give this some juice beyond the raw numbers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Kansas City Royals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -18.8 8.1% -0.2 8.1 -33.2 $184.5M 29.7 17.0 2.11 2.22 — —
Z-score -0.58 0.26 -0.11 0.52 -2.47 -0.21 0.62 0.96 -0.54 -0.36 — —
tNERD -0.58 0.26 -0.11 0.52 -2.47 0.21 0.00 0.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.77

Detroit Tigers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -6.7 8.9% -2.1 -11.7 14.2 $239.2M 29.6 13.0 2.74 2.64 — —
Z-score -0.19 1.07 -0.54 -0.71 -0.21 0.42 0.58 0.73 0.69 0.54 — —
tNERD -0.19 1.07 -0.54 -0.71 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.34 0.27 4.00 4.77

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 103 9.1% 65.0% 93.2 mph 34 17.0s -18 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.16 -0.72 0.45 -0.45 1.39 -1.67 — — — —
pNERD -0.31 -0.36 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.19

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 88 12.7% 64.9% 93.7 mph 29 17.8s -22 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.70 0.99 0.42 -0.22 0.07 -1.00 — — — —
pNERD 1.40 0.49 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.40

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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Summary

This one leans heavily on the Brewers doing Brewers things, not on marquee pitching. Milwaukee sits atop the NL Central with a comfortable double-digit cushion and a strong 34-20 home record, while Colorado continues to muddle through a lost season nearly 25 games back and struggling on the road at 17-34 — so the appeal here is mostly about tuning in to watch a good team try to stay sharp against one still playing for pride.

The gNERD of 8.69 sits below the historic average (10.11) and well under today's slate average of 11.06, driven almost entirely by the tNERD gap: Milwaukee's 8.68 reflects a 25-game cushion over the second-place Cubs and complements strong bullpen and baserunning marks, while Colorado's 1.66 reflects weak batting and barrel-rate profiles. On the mound, neither Ryan Feltner (2.54 pNERD) nor Robert Gasser (4.50) stands out — both post below-average xFIP-, though Gasser's excellent strike-throwing and some negative luck give him a bit more helpfulness than raw stuff would suggest. Watch for the Brewers' lineup depth and bullpen more than any pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Colorado Rockies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -41.7 6.7% -2.9 -9.3 24.0 $134.1M 29.5 7.0 1.73 1.80 — —
Z-score -1.34 -1.16 -0.72 -0.56 0.25 -0.79 0.44 0.40 -1.29 -1.25 — —
tNERD -1.34 -1.16 -0.72 -0.56 0.25 0.79 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 4.00 1.66

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 16.4 7.1% 6.6 -3.6 45.7 $139.3M 27.7 -19.0 2.66 2.56 — —
Z-score 0.57 -0.76 1.40 -0.21 1.29 -0.73 -1.21 -1.06 0.53 0.37 — —
tNERD 0.57 -0.76 1.40 -0.21 1.29 0.73 1.21 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 8.68

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 114 11.2% 62.3% 94.7 mph 29 18.4s 0 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.78 0.28 -0.63 0.24 0.07 -0.50 — — — —
pNERD -1.57 0.14 -0.31 0.24 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.54

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 107 10.0% 67.5% 92.4 mph 27 19.2s 10 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.38 -0.29 1.48 -0.82 -0.46 0.16 — — — —
pNERD -0.77 -0.15 0.74 0.00 0.46 -0.08 0.50 0.00 3.80 4.50

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:10p

Summary

A middling gNERD score matched by a middling pitching matchup, though the Guardians' scrappy underdog profile gives it a pulse. Cleveland comes in banged up for morale if not bodies — the Guardians dropped Friday's game 11-3 after Nick Fortes had four hits, part of a rough stretch for a team that's still hanging on at 54-51. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, sits atop the AL East at 60-43 and has been nearly unbeatable at home, going 36-15 in Tropicana Field games this year. On the mound, Bibee (pNERD 3.18) and Martinez (pNERD 2.44) are both firmly average, with neither offering huge strikeout upside or standout xFIP marks — Bibee sits at 4-9 with a 3.86 ERA while Martinez has been steadier at 9-2, 2.59 ERA. The real juice here is Cleveland's tNERD (7.48), boosted by a young, cheap roster and solid baserunning, against a Rays offense that hits for average but lacks punch. Today's gNERD average is 11.06, so at 8.65 this one leans toward background viewing rather than appointment television.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -27.2 6.2% 4.9 6.3 33.0 $88.9M 27.6 8.0 2.16 3.14 — —
Z-score -0.86 -1.67 1.02 0.41 0.68 -1.30 -1.35 0.45 -0.44 1.60 — —
tNERD -0.86 -1.67 1.02 0.41 0.68 1.30 1.35 0.45 0.00 0.80 4.00 7.48

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 28.7 5.6% 1.9 -12.5 12.3 $106.9M 29.1 20.0 2.27 2.10 — —
Z-score 0.98 -2.28 0.35 -0.76 -0.30 -1.10 0.07 1.12 -0.23 -0.61 — —
tNERD 0.98 -2.28 0.35 -0.76 -0.30 1.10 0.00 1.12 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.20

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 103 10.3% 63.3% 93.8 mph 27 20.4s -10 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.16 -0.15 -0.22 -0.18 -0.46 1.16 — — — —
pNERD -0.31 -0.08 -0.11 0.00 0.46 -0.58 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.18

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 113 8.1% 67.2% 92.7 mph 35 19.0s -52 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.73 -1.19 1.37 -0.68 1.65 -0.00 — — — —
pNERD -1.45 -0.60 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.44

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Athletics @ Minnesota Twins, 4:10p

Summary

A last-place tilt between two sub-.500 also-rans, salvaged only by the mystery of who Minnesota is actually throwing. The Twins (51-54) haven't bothered naming a starter, while Oakland hands the ball to rookie righty Mason Barnett, who's carrying a 4.64 ERA and 21 strikeouts through his first taste of the majors. The gNERD here sits at 7.82, comfortably below both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate average (11.06), and with both pitchers unscored due to lack of underlying data, this one leans almost entirely on team quality — which isn't much. Both clubs post ugly, matching fielding and baserunning numbers, dragging tNERD down to 3.35 for Oakland and a modest 2.30 for the Twins. The one flicker of intrigue: Oakland sits near the bottom in payroll and roster age, giving it some scrappy-underdog appeal, and it enters having taken the season series opener. Otherwise, this is a forgettable Saturday matchup — the Twins are favored at home, the over/under sits at 9.5, and neither team profiles as appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Athletics

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 6.4 7.9% -5.0 -23.0 -4.9 $135.2M 28.2 23.0 1.27 1.94 — —
Z-score 0.24 0.05 -1.18 -1.41 -1.12 -0.77 -0.71 1.29 -2.19 -0.95 — —
tNERD 0.24 0.05 -1.18 -1.41 -1.12 0.77 0.71 1.29 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.35

Minnesota Twins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 13.6 8.1% -5.6 -21.7 2.2 $122.1M 28.9 -13.0 2.30 2.06 — —
Z-score 0.48 0.26 -1.32 -1.33 -0.79 -0.92 -0.06 -0.72 -0.17 -0.69 — —
tNERD 0.48 0.26 -1.32 -1.33 -0.79 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.30

Mason Barnett, Athletics

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

Both teams are near the bottom of their divisions with little to play for, and the pitching matchup does little to change that. The Angels (41-63) and Giants (43-60) are both far under .500, and this game rates well below average on watchability by our numbers, with a gNERD of 5.86 sitting near the bottom of today's slate (which ranges up to 15.96) and well under the historical average of about 10.

The pitching matchup is lopsided in theory but shaky in practice. Rookie Ryan Johnson, just 23, is set to oppose Ray after facing four batters in relief and retiring them all in his only previous meeting with the Giants, on April 19, 2025. He's coming off five innings of one-run ball in a 3-2 win over the Detroit Tigers, and his 5.00 pNERD (age and some swinging-strike upside) is actually the better of the two arms today. Robbie Ray, meanwhile, carries a career highlight reel but a pedestrian 1.01 pNERD, with a below-average strike rate dragging things down; he's coming off a no-decision Sunday after yielding three runs on seven hits in four-plus innings against the Mariners. On the plus side, Ray is 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in five career starts against the Angels, so there's a track record worth noting even if the era's peripherals suggest regression toward mediocrity. The Giants' team profile gets a boost mostly from lousy recent luck (suggesting some positive regression ahead) and above-average broadcast ratings, but neither roster's underlying metrics — fielding, baserunning, bullpen — give much reason to tune in. File this one under "background noise" unless you're rooting for laundry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Los Angeles Angels

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -17.5 8.4% -6.2 -24.1 10.5 $191.6M 28.6 0.0 2.59 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.54 0.56 -1.45 -1.48 -0.39 -0.13 -0.39 0.00 0.40 -0.80 — —
tNERD -0.54 0.56 -1.45 -1.48 -0.39 0.13 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.00 1.42

San Francisco Giants

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -3.2 7.2% -5.5 -4.5 -1.4 $228.3M 29.6 28.0 3.20 3.49 — —
Z-score -0.07 -0.66 -1.29 -0.26 -0.96 0.29 0.49 1.57 1.59 2.34 — —
tNERD -0.07 -0.66 -1.29 -0.26 -0.96 0.00 0.00 1.57 0.79 1.17 4.00 4.29

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 120 12.2% 63.5% 92.2 mph 23 17.5s 24 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.13 0.75 -0.13 -0.91 -1.51 -1.25 — — — —
pNERD -2.25 0.37 -0.07 0.00 1.51 0.63 1.00 0.00 3.80 5.00

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 114 10.6% 60.1% 93.1 mph 34 20.1s -33 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.78 -0.01 -1.53 -0.50 1.39 0.91 — — — —
pNERD -1.57 -0.00 -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.46 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.01

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