MLB: What to watch on July 26, 2026

• 26 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

A dominant Ashcraft strikeout arm meets a Cubs offense riding a 31-run scoring binge, making this the day's most watchable matchup on paper. At 15.67, today's gNERD sits well above both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate average (11.32), and it's driven mostly by a lopsided pitching matchup: Braxton Ashcraft's 11.58 pNERD (elite xFIP-, 97 mph heat, brisk pace) dwarfs Jameson Taillon's modest 3.97. That said, Ashcraft's last outing saw him give up seven earned runs in three innings against the Yankees, so buyer beware on recent form even as his skills grade out well. The Pirates enter having Pittsburgh hosting the Cubs while riding a three-game losing skid and are trying to avoid a series sweep. Both offenses carry real juice—Chicago's tNERD (8.49) and Pittsburgh's (7.30) both rank comfortably above the historic 75th percentile—with Pete Crow-Armstrong pacing Chicago in OBP (.390) and slugging (.544) and Bryan Reynolds anchoring Pittsburgh. Add in Taillon's history as a former Pirate first-round product returning to PNC Park, and there's enough juice here to make this the pick of the day.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski is must-watch theater against a Rockies team that has no business being in this ballpark, and the numbers back that up as strongly as anything on today's slate. Misiorowski, the 24-year-old flamethrower who's become a genuine Cy Young conversation piece, leads the majors with 173 strikeouts and in ERA, and he consistently hits 100 mph or more on the radar gun. His pNERD of 15.00 is essentially maxed out, driven by elite whiff rates, a microscopic xFIP-, and velocity that sits near the top of the league — this is as close to appointment viewing as a start gets. Opposite him, Kyle Freeland has been scuffling, having lost his last two decisions, allowing four runs over six innings in both outings, though his pNERD of 5.37 is respectable thanks to strong control and some rough luck. The Brewers' 8.87 tNERD (driven by baserunning, bullpen depth, and a young, boosted lineup) dwarfs Colorado's league-worst 1.41, with Milwaukee's rookies Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara instrumental in Saturday night's 8-5 Milwaukee win. At 15.32, this gNERD ranks near the top of both today's games and the historical distribution — mostly on the strength of one dominant arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Colorado Rockies

Milwaukee Brewers

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, 4:20p

Summary

I've got enough to write a solid summary now.

Watch this one for Sánchez alone — a legitimate Cy Young-caliber arm against a Yankees lineup that leads baseball in team ERA, with the Phillies trying to snap a home skid. Cristopher Sánchez brings a 10.21 pNERD, driven by an absurd 61 xFIP-, elite swinging-strike rate, and plus velocity — this is a top-shelf starter having a genuinely dominant season. This is his 22nd start of the season, and the 29-year-old carries a 2.65 ERA with a 6.04 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That said, July has been rough for him, with a 7.47 ERA and 1.98 WHIP across 16 innings, plus a jump in barrel rate — worth watching whether he's settling back in. Opposite him, Will Warren (4.33 pNERD) is a more pedestrian arm, prone to traffic on the bases, though he's shown flashes of getting outs when it matters. The Yankees' 8.54 tNERD is the headline offensive story here — strong barrel rates, baserunning, and bullpen — while Philadelphia's 5.34 leans more on baserunning and pen depth than its middling bat. Philadelphia sits at 27-27 at home and 38-5 when scoring five-plus runs, so a quiet Phillies bat could make this lopsided fast. At 14.21 gNERD, this ranks comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — a good pick.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Two of the best right-handed arms in the league face off in Texas, with the AL West standings actually meaning something for once—well worth clearing the schedule for this one.

Seattle rolls into Globe Life Field having lost the first two of this four-game set and slipped to third in the division, while Texas has grabbed early control of the series behind a resurgent offense. The first-place Rangers have won the first two games in the four-game series that will continue when ace right-handers Logan Gilbert of Seattle and Jacob deGrom of Texas oppose each other for the third time this season. deGrom, now 38, remains a marvel of late-career excellence—his pNERD of 10.87 is driven by elite strikeout stuff and command, backed by the lowest career WHIP and second-lowest ERA of any starting pitcher in the live-ball era among those with at least 1000 innings. Gilbert isn't far behind at 7.42, with plus velocity and whiff rates offsetting a slightly plodding pace. Texas's team profile (6.16 tNERD) outshines Seattle's punchless 2.47, though the Rangers' gaudy batting and luck marks suggest some regression could be coming. With two frontline starters and a real contender for playoff positioning, this one ranks solidly above average both historically and among today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 9:15a

Summary

Two AL contenders with a real playoff stake meet in a series finale, and the pitching matchup alone makes this one worth your attention. Tampa Bay is chasing the AL East's top seed while Cleveland fights for the AL Central, though the Guardians arrive having lost four straight and looking to avoid a sweep. Drew Rasmussen brings real stuff to the mound — he's coming off a start where he handed the ball for his 20th start of the season after allowing two earned runs and seven hits in five innings against Toronto, sporting a 3.28 ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per nine — and his 79 xFIP- and above-average velocity back that up with a strong 7.63 pNERD. Messick isn't far behind at 7.36, so both starters rank well above average for today's slate. Cleveland's tNERD (7.39) actually outpaces Tampa Bay's (4.32), thanks largely to Cleveland's baserunning and payroll/age underdog appeal, even though the Rays' lineup — paced by a scorching Junior Caminero — carries the better raw offense. At 13.35, the gNERD sits comfortably above today's 11.32 average, making this the rare series finale that's genuinely worth tuning in for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Tampa Bay Rays

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

Two last-place-adjacent NL teams playing spoiler to each other, but the offense-and-defense numbers say this one's worth a look even if the arms aren't. Miami's on a five-game home skid that has them "one loss to Padres away from ugly franchise mark," a stunning reversal after they'd gone 26-8 from June 1 to July 9, the best in baseball. San Diego, meanwhile, is chasing its first series sweep since June 22-24 against the Atlanta Braves. Both lineups grade out well above average—tNERDs of 9.36 and 9.61 sit near the top of the historical distribution, driven by strong baserunning and bullpen work on both sides, plus Miami's young, discount-payroll roster. The pitching is more pedestrian: Buehler and Junk both land in below-average pNERD territory, reflecting middling strikeout stuff. Buehler has been erratic all July, though he pitched well in his last start against the Braves, going 5.2 innings and allowing two runs on two hits, and his outsized positive luck score suggests better results may be coming. Junk, making his first career start against San Diego, is coming off a rough four-inning, six-run outing versus Houston.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Miami Marlins

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

The Dodgers roll into Queens fresh off already thrashing the Mets 14-3 across a three-game sweep this season, and on paper this rematch looks similarly lopsided in the Dodgers' favor. Still, there's enough juice in the pitching matchup and the Dodgers' loaded roster to make this one of today's better watches.

The Dodgers swept New York earlier this season in Los Angeles, outscoring the Mets 14-3 across three games, and New York's offense has been a grind — 4.0 runs per game ranks 27th in the league — against a Dodgers rotation that has been difficult to solve. Francisco Alvarez and speedster Carson Benge give Mets fans something to watch even if the lineup around them sputters. LA's 9.77 tNERD (well above today's 5.63 average) is fueled by strong batting runs, barrel rate, and a deep bullpen, while the Mets limp in at 4.25, dragged down by shaky baserunning and fielding. Emmet Sheehan's 6.86 pNERD stands out on whiffs and some positive luck regression upside, while Freddy Peralta's 4.55 is middling — his strike-throwing has lagged, though he's also getting some favorable batted-ball luck. Overall gNERD of 12.71 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals, 10:35a

Summary

This one's more about lineup quirks and roster storylines than must-see pitching, but the Nationals' offense gives it some juice. Washington enters with the majority of this game's watchability score thanks to a tNERD of 9.39 — well above the historic 95th percentile — built on Luis García Jr. hitting .275 with 21 home runs and CJ Abrams racking up 111 hits and 79 RBI, plus a young, cheap roster that scores well on age and payroll. Arizona counters with steadier glove work and a competent bullpen, though Gabriel Moreno's .311 average and Ketel Marte's power still make their lineup dangerous. On the mound, it's a mismatch of unknowns: Kohl Drake carries zero pNERD data, and one betting analysis flagged him as "a raw left-hander with a troubling minor-league track record" facing a Washington lineup that hits lefties well. Miles Mikolas, at 37, isn't overpowering anyone either — his whiff rate is dreadful, though a positive luck figure suggests his results could get worse before better. Overall gNERD of 11.31 sits a tick above average, mostly carried by the Nats' lineup rather than a marquee pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Washington Nationals

Kohl Drake, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

I've got enough to write the summary.

A decent pitching matchup dressed up in a lopsided-standings package, with the season-series plot twist doing most of the heavy lifting. Boston sits comfortably ahead in the AL East at 53-50, riding the momentum of a franchise-tying 15-game win streak earlier this month, but somehow Toronto has beaten Boston four times in five head-to-head meetings this season, yet the Red Sox are the ones sitting comfortably ahead in the AL East standings — a genuinely odd wrinkle for a last-place club. Ranger Suarez brings the better arm to Fenway, his 6.57 pNERD driven by a sharp xFIP- of 79 and a brisk, watchable pace on the mound; he's making his 18th start of the season, sitting at 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 91 1/3 innings. Gausman counters with a solid-not-spectacular 5.58 pNERD, buoyed by strong swinging-strike rates but dinged for a plodding pace and a so-so 4-9 record this year. Team-wise, Boston's tNERD (5.71) edges Toronto's punchless 2.43, thanks to superior fielding and bullpen work, though neither offense is doing anything special. Overall gNERD of 10.15 lands almost exactly at the historical median — competent, unspectacular, division-rivalry baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

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Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Braves-Orioles rubber game closes out a series that's been a genuine dogfight, but the pitching stat lines suggest you can find better baseball elsewhere today. Atlanta arrives at 61-43 and well clear in the NL East, while Baltimore sits at 51-54 and clinging to fringe wild-card hopes, and yet the two teams have split a tense series that included a walk-off single by Dylan Beavers and a 10-inning opener. Reynaldo López, working as a starter after mostly relieving this year, has actually been rocked lately — "roughed up for nine total runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two outings" — which tracks with his so-so 2.84 pNERD built on shaky strikeout and whiff rates. Shane Baz counters with a bit more helium: he's "been sharper in his last two outings, allowing a combined three earned runs over 10 2/3 innings, recording 15 strikeouts without issuing a walk", and he'll be facing Atlanta for the first time in his career. Neither arm cracks league-average NERD thresholds, though Baz's plus velocity helps him edge López. Atlanta's tNERD (6.92) is solid on the strength of barrels and bullpen, but with a modest 9.12 gNERD — below today's 11.32 average — this one's a decent series finale, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Baltimore Orioles

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

Two last-place teams with nothing but pride at stake, but at least the pitching side of the ledger has a genuine story: José Soriano brings real stuff to a game surrounded by noise. Neither club is chasing anything meaningful this season — the Giants sit 22.5 games back and the Angels 12.5 back in their respective races — but Soriano gives this one a pulse. His pNERD of 7.21 is comfortably above average, built on a 3.51 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 122 strikeouts this year, plus mid-90s heat and a healthy whiff rate. Across the mound is Carson Whisenhunt, who gets the nod for the Giants and will make his first start of the season, the 25-year-old having not appeared on the mound last year — hence the flat pNERD, since there's essentially no track record to grade. Statheads should note his early peripherals are shaky: a 5.55 xERA, .358 xwOBA, matching 13.0% strikeout and walk rates, plus a 4.89 FIP and 5.69 xFIP. Team-wise, both clubs grade below average on tNERD, with the Giants' bump coming mostly from ballpark luck and broadcast charm rather than actual talent. A 9.07 gNERD lands squarely in below-average territory for the season — watchable for the pitching duel, skippable for the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Los Angeles Angels

San Francisco Giants

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

This one is more about storylines than pure stuff — the pitching stat lines undersell exactly why it's actually a fun watch. The Astros have won five straight and just got a shutout gem from Hunter Brown, while Ronel Blanco makes just his second start in more than a year, having not pitched since May 2025, and allowed four earned runs on two hits — both homers — in 4 2/3 innings with three walks and eight strikeouts in his return. That rust shows in his blank pNERD, but the strikeout stuff was still there. Fedde, by contrast, has quietly become a stabilizing presence in Chicago's rotation — this will be his first start this season as the outright moneyline favorite — though his modest 1.38 pNERD reflects mediocre whiff and strike rates. The gNERD of 9.04 sits below both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate (11.32), but the White Sox's tNERD of 8.34 — fueled by a young, cheap, athletic roster with a strong bullpen — is genuinely one of the better team profiles you'll see, easily outclassing Houston's middling 3.36. Yordan Alvarez lurking in that lineup doesn't hurt either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Houston Astros

Chicago White Sox

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

This is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup by NERD standards, redeemed only slightly by a decent Cardinals lineup and a pitcher on a hot streak. The Reds arrive fresh off a 7-0 sleepwalk loss to close out this series, and their offense has been genuinely putrid enough to warrant its own headline. Abbott, once an All-Star and now clawing back from a history of shoulder trouble, has been merely functional this year — he lost for the second time in his last three outings on Monday despite allowing just one unearned run on four hits in six innings against Seattle, and his peripherals (xFIP- of 112) suggest he's been fortunate rather than sharp. Leahy, by contrast, has quietly turned into a solid mid-rotation arm, and last pitched on Tuesday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed three hits in six innings against the Los Angeles Angels. St. Louis' younger, cheaper roster edges out Cincinnati's shaky bullpen and thin lineup for team NERD, but at 8.49 overall, this game sits well below both the historical average and today's slate — an easy one to let pass.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Athletics @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

This one's a bottom-of-the-standings tilt, but keep an eye on the Twins' bullpen call-up: Connor Prielipp looks like the actual reason to tune in. His 6.53 pNERD is comfortably above average for today's slate, boosted by mid-90s velocity and a still-fresh 25-year-old arm, and given his 0-0 record on the mound, this may be an early look at what the Twins hope is a building block. Across the way, Jeffrey Springs continues a rough season — 3-9 with a 5.96 ERA — and his 2.49 pNERD reflects a fastball that's lost some zip, though a positive luck figure suggests his results should modestly improve from here. Team-wise, neither side offers much: the Athletics (44-60) and Twins (52-54) both post modest tNERD marks in the low 3s, weighed down by shaky defense and baserunning. At a 7.41 gNERD, this sits below the historic median and near the bottom of today's games — watchable mainly for Prielipp's arm, not for anything resembling playoff stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Athletics

Minnesota Twins

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

This is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup by the numbers, and the on-field product mostly agrees. Kansas City's bullpen has been a disaster — a bullpen-runs z-score of -2.45 is the ugliest component here — while Detroit brings enough offense punch (Tigers barrel rate ranks well above average) to make this a lopsided affair; Detroit sits favored to win roughly 62% of the time. The Royals (44-62) are well behind Detroit (50-55) in a fourth-place-versus-fifth-place AL Central tilt, and neither team looks headed anywhere interesting this year.

On the mound, Framber Valdez's 4.30 xERA and 4.34 xFIP describe a mid-rotation starter whose process is slightly better than his ERA, now doing that work in a Tigers uniform after his offseason move from Houston — a genuine change worth noting given his 2022 World Series pedigree. Luinder Avila, just 24, brings a lively fastball but middling control, and last pitched Tuesday, giving up two earned runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Giants. Both pitchers carry modest pNERD marks, and with a gNERD of 7.24 sitting at the low end of today's slate, this one's more background noise than appointment viewing — though both teams' positive luck scores suggest better days than their surface stats show could still be ahead.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

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