MLB: What to watch on July 27, 2026

• 27 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Zack Wheeler is quietly having one of the better seasons in baseball and Miami is in full collapse mode—that combination makes this worth your evening. The Marlins have dropped 12 straight games, a franchise record, and have yet to win since the All-Star break. Wheeler counters that misery by walking in with a sparkling 10-2 record and a 2.16 ERA, backed by an xFIP- of just 65 and elite swinging-strike rate that push his pNERD to 9.09, comfortably above today's average. Tyler Phillips is a serviceable but unspectacular foil — decent velocity, shaky command, a 110 xFIP- — giving this matchup a real talent gap on the mound, even if the raw box score (2-5, 3.52 ERA) undersells how rough his peripherals have been. On the offensive side, Philadelphia's lineup can erupt (Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber's 33 homers lead the way) though the Phillies own tNERD is middling due to underwhelming batting runs. Miami, despite the losing streak, posts a strong 9.62 tNERD thanks to speed, a young roster, and bad luck that suggests better days ahead — Otto Lopez's .328 average and Xavier Edwards' on-base ability keep the bottom-feeder lineup from being a total non-factor. With a 14.03 gNERD, this sits near the top of today's slate and comfortably above the historical average.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

Chase Burns is the whole show here, and he's making Cincinnati's mediocre roster look like a contender every fifth day. Cleveland's Guardians arrive with a lineup that grinds out at-bats but not much thunder, while Cincinnati counters with a rookie who's rapidly becoming must-watch television.

Burns, just 23, comes in at 12-1 with a 2.42 ERA, and he'll take the mound for the Reds in his 20th start of the season, coming off a start where he allowed three hits in five scoreless innings against Seattle. His 2.42 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine with a .204 batting average against back up a pNERD of 9.83 — miles above today's average and squarely elite territory, fueled by nearly-98 mph heat and a swinging-strike rate that makes hitters look silly. He's also fresh off signing a seven-year, $105 million extension, so no shortage of stakes here. Cecconi, opposite him, is a stark contrast: a 4-7, 4.60 ERA innings-eater with an ordinary 3.28 pNERD, though his last start against Minnesota (4⅔ innings, three earned runs) wasn't inspiring. Cleveland's tNERD (7.25) actually outpaces Cincinnati's (4.18), thanks to bullpen depth, youth, and baserunning value, while the Reds lean on raw barrel rate and a bit of positive batting luck. Overall gNERD of 12.27 sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — watch it for Burns alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Cincinnati Reds

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Boston Red Sox @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Boston's playing spoiler in Sacramento against a team that's basically imploding, and the pitching matchup is the reason to tune in even if the rest of the game plot is thin. The Athletics are riding an ugly stretch — just three wins in their last ten — and things got worse with news that the Athletics could learn Monday that All-Star catcher Shea Langeliers requires season-ending knee surgery. Boston, by contrast, has won six consecutive series for the first time since June 2022 and enters riding an 8-of-10 stretch. The pitching is the real draw: 23-year-old lefty Payton Tolle owns the second-highest pNERD among today's starters, thanks to elite strike-throwing, a quick pace, and mid-90s velocity, backed by a .206 xBA against, .267 xwOBA, and a strikeout rate near 27% with a chase rate over 34%. Perkins isn't far behind on stuff, though his surface numbers (6.75 ERA) lag his peripherals. Boston's tNERD gets a lift from strong fielding and bullpen work; Oakland's suffers from shaky defense and baserunning, offset partly by youth and payroll scarcity. At 12.23, this gNERD sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — a solid, if not spectacular, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Athletics

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

Jack Perkins, Athletics

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New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Two contenders with plenty to play for meet in a game whose team quality outshines its pitching matchup, and a rookie lefty trying to find his footing gives it an extra storyline. Both tNERD marks (8.67 for New York, 8.58 for Chicago) sit near the top of the historic 95th percentile, reflecting deep, athletic rosters — the White Sox lean on youth and payroll efficiency, the Yankees on raw power and a well-priced bullpen. Chicago sits atop the AL Central by 2.5 games over the Guardians, while New York sits atop the Wild Card standings by six games, so this opener has real stakes. On the mound, Max Fried isback from an elbow bone bruise, having thrown five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and a fastball that reached 98.3 mph in his return — encouraging health news even if his modest 3.88 pNERD reflects a slow pace that dings the score. Across from him, 22-year-old Noah Schultz, making his 13th start, has struggled recently, allowing five earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings his last time out; his ugly xFIP- gets partly offset by youth and some bad luck, but don't expect fireworks from his slider. Watch for the lineups, not the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

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Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

The Brewers roll into San Francisco as baseball's best story this side of the standings, while the Giants continue their long fade into irrelevance—so this is really about whether Milwaukee's machine keeps humming against a last-place club. Milwaukee flew west after completing a 7-2 homestand with an 11-2 shellacking of the Colorado Rockies, and their 9.22 tNERD (well above the 75th percentile historically) reflects a young, disciplined roster with strong baserunning and bullpen depth. San Francisco's 4.40 tNERD is unremarkable, though their Giants have gotten unlucky by 27 runs relative to their skill, so some positive regression could sneak in. On the mound, Brandon Sproat brings mid-90s velocity and rookie upside, but continues to be plagued by command issues, having issued four walks in his latest outing against the Mets; he's also never faced the Giants in his career. Tyler Mahle has been old-Mahle-familiar to Brewers hitters from his Reds days, and his 5.31 ERA is worse than his 4.29 xERA and 4.52 FIP, suggesting better days than his record shows. With a 12.03 gNERD, this sits comfortably above average—worth a look, mostly for Milwaukee's quality and two shaky-but-interesting arms trying to find control.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Francisco Giants

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

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Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Cubs and Cardinals kick off a four-game set with a matchup best described as competent-adjacent rather than must-see: Chicago's superior roster faces a Cardinals team playing over its head against a limited pitching matchup. David Peterson gets the ball for Chicago looking for revenge — that other start was rough for Peterson, who surrendered 10 runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 17-1 home loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 3. Since then in three of his four starts since he was acquired in a trade from the New York Mets on June 25, he's held opponents to two runs or fewer, including an 11-2 triumph against Detroit where he struck out four in 6 2/3 innings, though his pNERD sits at a middling 4.31, dragged up mostly by lucky variance rather than swing-and-miss stuff — his strikeout and whiff rates are both below average. His counterpart is unannounced, so pencil in a zero and adjust expectations accordingly. On the team side, Chicago's 8.57 tNERD (elite fielding and offense) dwarfs St. Louis's 6.04, though the Cardinals get bonus points for a young, cheap roster that's underperforming its trueskill numbers — this is the seventh meeting between these teams this season, with the Cardinals holding a 4-2 edge in the season series, proof the standings don't always tell the story. Overall gNERD of 11.96 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — watchable, if not unmissable.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Kirby's command and a Texas offense running hot on luck make this an above-average watch, even if neither lineup is thumping the ball. George Kirby brings a strong 7.90 pNERD into Arlington, backed by strong recent form — a 2.71 FIP over his last three appearances, with just 0.90 HR/9 and 0.90 BB/9, and better numbers on the road than at home. His near-elite command shows up in the numbers: just 25 walks in 116 innings, the kind of profile that actively suppresses multi-run innings. Kumar Rocker, by contrast, is a batting-practice arm turned bounce-back story — he allowed just one hit in six shutout innings in his last start after giving up 10 runs across his first two starts in July, and his 3.74 pNERD reflects that inconsistency, especially a walk rate that hurts him. This is the finale of a series Texas leads 2-1, with Sunday's 6-4 Seattle win featuring Dominic Canzone going 3-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs. Texas's tNERD (5.93) outpaces Seattle's (2.86) largely on a hefty luck component, suggesting some regression may be coming. Overall gNERD of 10.22 sits just above the historical average and below today's slate average — a solid, unspectacular option built mainly on Kirby's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Braves-Mets is a solid sleeper: a first-place club visiting a last-place division rival with a rookie curiosity on the mound and just enough intrigue to be worth a look. Zac Thornton, a 24-year-old lefty making just his fifth big-league start, has been stingy so far — making his fifth start of the season, tossing six innings without allowing a run on three hits against Milwaukee last time out — but the underlying numbers suggest regression is coming, as Thornton continues to scream regression, owning a mediocre 19.5 K%, a concerning 12.3% barrel rate, and a 4.23 xERA despite a 1.93 ERA. His pNERD is a flat zero simply because we lack enough data on him yet, which is its own kind of storyline. Martín Pérez, freshly back from the injured list, offers a modest 3.26 pNERD, propped up mainly by a plodding pace that somehow counts in his favor. Atlanta's tNERD (6.68) is the more interesting side of the ledger, fueled by strong bullpen and barrel-rate marks, while the Mets check in at 4.42, dragged down by a genuinely bad batting-runs figure. The 9.68 gNERD sits below both the historical and today's averages — watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Both teams are chasing the wild card while treading water, and this middle-of-the-pack matchup won't shake anything loose beyond that. A serviceable but unspectacular pitching matchup that leans on lineup depth rather than ace stuff to make it worth a look.

The Pirates and Diamondbacks arrive with nearly identical playoff math — the Diamondbacks sit 12 games back in their division, the Pirates 12.5 back in theirs, meaning the wild card is the realistic path for each club — and recent form has been unremarkable, with Arizona going 6-4 over its last ten games despite a current two-game skid, while Pittsburgh is 5-5 in that same span. Pittsburgh's 7.15 tNERD is buoyed by strong batting and baserunning numbers, while Arizona's lineup drags down its tNERD despite plus fielding. On the mound, neither Kelly nor Keller is missing many bats this year, but Keller's been trending up — in his last outing on July 22, Keller threw five scoreless innings against the Yankees, allowing three hits with six strikeouts — which nudges his pNERD slightly above Kelly's. At a modest 8.47 gNERD, this sits below the historical median and near the bottom of today's slate, so treat it as background viewing rather than appointment baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Pittsburgh Pirates

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Toronto’s season is circling the drain, Scherzer is returning from injury on his birthday to face his old team, and CJ Abrams is hitting like a video-game cheat code—there's enough story here to offset the mediocre overall NERD score. This gNERD of 8.47 sits a bit below the historic median (10.11) and below today's average (10.59), but the components tell an interesting tale. Washington's tNERD of 9.53 is elite — well above the historic 95th percentile — powered by strong batting runs, barrels, baserunning, and a young, affordable roster, though a shaky bullpen (Nationals rank near the bottom in bullpen runs) undercuts it. Toronto's offense-starved 2.37 tNERD drags the average down.

Max Scherzer has struggled for the Blue Jays, recording an ERA of 10.23 in six starts this season, and his pNERD of -1.75 reflects an ugly xFIP-. But the storyline is irresistible: Scherzer will return from the 15-day injured list on his 42nd birthday against the Nationals, whom he won his first of two World Series with. Meanwhile Andrew Alvarez posts a solid 6.79 pNERD, and Abrams is hitting .567 with seven homers over his last seven games, and now holds the franchise shortstop home-run record. Watch it for the sentimental subplot, not the pitching stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Neither team is going anywhere this year, but this one at least has two starters currently pitching better than their peripherals suggest and a bit of narrative texture to spice up a Monday matchup between fourth-place clubs. Kyle Bradish enters riding a quality start in each of his three July outings, and most recently held Boston to one run over six innings, a performance that snapped the Red Sox's 15-game winning streak — a nice line, though his pNERD sits modest at 2.77, dragged down by a slow pace that reads poorly in the model despite a strong 96 xFIP-. Keider Montero is the more interesting arc: he's making his second start since being brought back out of the bullpen, and his stinginess in walks (strong strike rate component) offsets a shaky whiff rate. Detroit's tNERD gets a boost mostly from a hot barrel rate and positive batting luck (they're outperforming their skill-based numbers, so some regression could be coming), while Baltimore's edge comes from solid batting runs and bullpen work, undercut by weak fielding on both sides. At a combined gNERD of 8.13 — below the historical average of 10.11 and near the bottom of today's 7.55–14.03 range — this is a fine background game, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Baltimore Orioles

Detroit Tigers

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

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Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

A last-place Angels club against a scuffling but scrappier Astros team, with the real draw being a hard-throwing 22-year-old who's quietly been one of the better stories in Anaheim this year. Walbert Ureña, all of 22, pumps his fastball at nearly 98 mph and has racked up a 2.78 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 87.1 innings, making him one of the Angels' bright spots this season, and his pNERD of 6.39 reflects that heat and youth. Tatsuya Imai is the nominal "name" starter but comes in with a 5.59 ERA over 58 innings, though he's coming off a strong outing — his 4.04 pNERD is respectable, boosted mostly by strong luck normalization rather than clean command, given his shaky strike rate. Team-wise, this isn't a showcase: both clubs post tNERDs well below average, and the Angels' 1.61 is downright bottom-of-the-barrel, driven by poor fielding and baserunning. Houston enters winners of five straight before a Sunday loss, while Los Angeles sits last in the division and has hit just .234 over its last 10 games. The 7.55 gNERD lands below both historic and today's averages — watch for Ureña, skip the rest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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  MLB: What to watch on July 26, 2026