MLB: What to watch on July 28, 2026

• 28 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

This one's near the top of the watchability charts today, and deservedly so: a red-hot Brewers club with a dominant bullpen taking on a Giants team that keeps overachieving its underlying numbers. Milwaukee sits atop the NL Central at 66-40 after a strong homestand, bringing the show to Old Friend Willy Adames and the Giants to open a West Coast trip — a nice subplot given Adames spent years anchoring Milwaukee's infield before signing in San Francisco. The Brewers' 9.00 tNERD is driven by an excellent bullpen, quality baserunning, and a young, cheap roster, while the Giants' still-solid 4.66 mark leans heavily on Oracle Park broadcast charm and a notable "positive luck" gap — meaning San Francisco (45-61) has actually been playing worse than its record indicates. On the mound, 24-year-old Logan Henderson is the headliner, with a 4-1 record, 3.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and elite peripherals (9.92 pNERD, well above today's 5.78 average) built on excellent strike-throwing and whiff rates. Landen Roupp counters capably, with a 7-8 record, 3.93 ERA, and 113 strikeouts, giving this game a legitimately compelling top-of-scale gNERD of 15.00.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Francisco Giants

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

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Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

A frontline arm carrying a middling supporting cast is the story here, with Cleveland's Gavin Williams doing enough heavy lifting to make this one worth your remote. Williams' pNERD of 11.50 sits near the top of both today's slate and the broader season sample, built on a hard-to-square combination of premium velocity (97 mph average) and elite contact suppression (xFIP- of 72). The Reds' counterpart is officially unnamed, which is its own small mystery, though Cincinnati's lineup gives him little help either way — Cincinnati's tNERD of 4.11 reflects a club with shaky batting and fielding runs, and they'll be doing it without Steer, who's headed for the injured list after a right wrist injury expected to cost "significant time". Cleveland's offense isn't exactly thriving either — the Guardians have been shut out in their last two games and scored just four runs in their last four — but their 7.16 tNERD, boosted by strong baserunning and bullpen work, still clears the Reds comfortably. Not a marquee slugfest, but Williams alone makes this worth checking in on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Cincinnati Reds

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

A middling pitching matchup wrapped around a genuinely fun, feisty young Marlins team makes this one worth a look, even if neither starter is a must-watch arm. Nola is in the middle of the worst season of his career, having allowed more home runs (25) than any pitcher in the National League this season, though his pNERD (5.16) gets a boost from positive luck, suggesting his ugly ERA overstates how bad he's been. Alcantara, Miami's most reliable starter this season, regularly working into the seventh inning, brings real velocity (97.5 mph, best among today's starters) but is coming off one of his worst starts of the year in allowing 5 ER last Wednesday. The real draw is Miami's tNERD of 9.82 — comfortably above today's 5.63 average — fueled by a young, cheap, and lucky roster that's overperforming its baseline, even while stuck in a brutal 1-9 slide. Toss in a legitimate NL East rivalry, a season series the Phillies lead 5-3, and a gNERD of 13.08 that clears today's average, and this is a solidly above-average watch, powered more by team quirkiness than pitching brilliance.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Chris Sale, at 37, is pitching like it's 2018 again, and that alone makes this worth a look even though the Mets are limping toward the finish line. Sale enters with an eye-catching mark of dominance: Atlanta turns to its ace, Chris Sale, with an eye on evening the series, and Sale has once again been one of the National League's most dominant starters. His 9.02 pNERD is well above today's average and reflects elite whiff and strike rates paired with a still-lively fastball, though his deliberate pace docks him slightly. Across town, Christian Scott — a return act himself after Tommy John/internal-brace surgery wiped out his 2025 — has quietly turned into a solid five-and-dive arm; the Mets counter with Christian Scott, who has quietly put together a strong season, allowing just 21 earned runs since the start of May. The Mets lineup is shorthanded too: Sale's combination of strikeout volume and command is especially lethal against a team missing Juan Soto and Mark Vientos from its everyday lineup. The gNERD of 13.05 sits comfortably above both the historical median and today's slate average, mostly thanks to Sale's arm and a Mets broadcast crew that punches above its weight in the tNERD math. Watch for the pitching, not the scoreboard — this profiles as a lopsided, strikeout-heavy affair rather than a slugfest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Christian Scott, New York Mets

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New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Gerrit Cole's return from Tommy John surgery has been the best kind of baseball theater, and pairing his revival with a scrappy young White Sox club makes this one worth carving out time for. Cole, who missed all of 2025 and the first two months of this season, has looked essentially unslowed since his May comeback—his fastball touched 99.6 mph in his season debut against the Rays, and three starts into the season he was sitting on a 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. That track record shows up in his pNERD of 7.32, built on plus velocity, elite strike-throwing, and a tidy xFIP-. His counterpart, Anthony Kay, is the clear name-value gap here: a 1.23 pNERD reflects below-average command and strikeout stuff, so don't expect a duel. The real juice comes from the lineups—both the Yankees (8.85 tNERD) and White Sox (8.59 tNERD) rank well above the historical average of 5.23, with New York's power/baserunning combo and Chicago's young, cheap roster both flashing well above league norms. Add it up and you get a 13.00 gNERD, solidly above today's 11.31 average and comfortably in the upper half of games historically—watch for Cole's stuff even if Kay struggles to keep pace.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

Chase Burns is the reason to tune in here—a 23-year-old righty humming 97.8 mph with swing-and-miss stuff that's turned into a legitimate NL Cy Young case, and he's carrying a pNERD of 9.85, comfortably above today's slate average. Burns brings a 12-1 record and a tidy xFIP- of 84 into a matchup against a Guardians lineup that's been shut out in back-to-back games and owns one of baseball's worst offenses, so don't expect much resistance. Cleveland countering with Slade Cecconi is more of a mixed bag—his 3.33 pNERD reflects a pitcher who posted a 1.88 ERA in five June starts but has allowed 15 runs on 22 hits in July. The gNERD of 12.23 lands above both the historic average and today's 11.31 mean, propped up largely by Cleveland's tNERD of 7.16—young, cheap, and running well on the bases—versus Cincinnati's thinner 4.11, hurt by a shaky bullpen and a lineup missing regulars to injury. Add in José Ramírez still shaking off rust after a hamate fracture, and this one's watchable mostly for Burns' dominance rather than for drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Cincinnati Reds

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Melton has been sharp lately (three earned runs allowed over his last six starts) while Kremer just got roughed up by Boston, allowing a season-high six runs. He's also coming back from injury. There's plenty of concrete storylines here.

A rookie-caliber arm with electric stuff against a veteran trying to find his footing again makes this the more watchable half of this Baltimore-Detroit set. Troy Melton, the Tigers' 25-year-old righty, owns a 1.95 ERA on the season and has held opponents to two runs or less over his last six games, posting a 1.31 ERA and 3.08 FIP over that stretch while striking out 41. His 7.39 pNERD, built on mid-90s velocity and a quick pace, sits comfortably above today's average. Kremer, by contrast, is scuffling — he gave up a season-high six runs in his latest start, four of them in the first inning against Boston, though he managed to hang around for six innings. His 6.62 pNERD is buoyed mostly by lucky/xFIP components rather than results, and he missed more than two months with a right quad strain before returning. The Orioles offense has been rolling — Coby Mayo hit a two-run homer and drove in three, while Jackson Holliday delivered a four-hit game in Monday's win — but both bullpens are middling and the gNERD of 11.69 lands just above the historical median, buoyed almost entirely by pitching intrigue rather than lineup firepower.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Baltimore Orioles

Detroit Tigers

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

A dud on paper, but the pitching says otherwise—this is a sneaky-solid arms race wearing an ugly team-record costume. The Red Sox are just fine (5.43 tNERD, roughly average) while the A's rank near the bottom of the league in tNERD (2.91), and it shows: Oakland/Sacramento is on a three-game losing skid and hitting a paltry .230 as a team over their last ten games. Their calling card is bad defense and a shaky bullpen dragging down otherwise passable offense from Soderstrom and Gelof.

The pitching is the actual draw. Jake Bennett (7.16 pNERD) is young, was efficient, and pounds the zone. Gage Jump (7.40 pNERD) throws hard for his age but comes in shaky—he gave up six earned runs and allowed eight hits in 4 2/3 innings against Arizona in his last start. Combined, both arms clear the 95th percentile for pitcher NERD today, giving this game a gNERD of 11.45—above the historical average and squarely mid-pack among today's slate. Watch for the arms, not the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Athletics

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

Gage Jump, Athletics

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Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

A solidly above-average matchup thanks to a genuinely nasty Rays starter, even if the Rangers' side of the probable-pitcher ledger is a mystery. Griffin Jax pairs a plus fastball (95.9 mph) with elite swing-and-miss stuff, and his xFIP- of 86 backs up the hype—one preview flatly noted "a home-comfortable starter with swing-and-miss stuff against a Rangers arm that has been surrendering hard contact and cannot miss bats." That Rangers arm is reportedly Cal Quantrill, though he's unlisted here, so you're rolling the dice on the other dugout. Tampa Bay (56-42) also brings a bullpen that's been "in elite form over its past 26 games and recently, one of the best units in baseball", while Texas (50-49) counters with a strong Batting Runs mark undercut by shaky defense and baserunning. Both offenses have been quietly unlucky given their underlying numbers, hinting at more runs than recent results suggest. At 11.39, the gNERD score sits comfortably above today's 11.31 average—not a marquee slate-topper, but a solid, pitching-forward watch if Jax's stuff plays as advertised.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Texas Rangers

Tampa Bay Rays

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

A rivalry series with playoff stakes on one side and trade-deadline urgency on the other makes this one worth a look, even if the pitching matchup is modest. The Cubs, sitting second in the NL Central and holding the top NL Wild Card spot, roll into Busch Stadium after thumping the Cardinals 7-3 in the series opener, with Nico Hoerner collecting four hits. Pete Crow-Armstrong (23 homers, 26 steals) gives Chicago a dynamic look, while St. Louis leans on Jordan Walker's quiet 22-homer season as the Cardinals face deadline pressure with a .500 record. Chicago's 8.66 tNERD is driven by elite fielding and strong batting, though a shaky bullpen drags it down; St. Louis compensates with a young, cheap roster that scores well on age and payroll. Colin Rea (7-7, 4.85 ERA) brings a modest 2.84 pNERD, nothing to build appointment viewing around, and the Cardinals' starter remains unlisted here. At 11.39, the gNERD sits right around today's slate average—watchable mostly for the standings implications and Wrigley-Busch bad blood rather than must-see arms on the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Dodgers-Mariners is a battle of styles: a stacked, first-place LA offense against a Seattle club that's been scuffling at the plate but can occasionally get a start from a well above-average arm. The Dodgers own the NL West at 67-39 while Seattle sits third in the AL West at 52-55, and Tony Tellez's betting notes flag a lineup hitting just .229 with a .301 on-base percentage over their past 23 games, which tracks with a punchless offense (tNERD 3.04) that ranks near the bottom of the pack. The Dodgers, by contrast, post a tNERD of 9.38, comfortably above today's 9.82 ceiling neighborhood, riding big z-scores in batting, barrels, and fielding. Luis Castillo takes the mound for Seattle with a modest 4.84 pNERD, buoyed by good velocity and strong strike-throwing luck, though his xFIP- suggests he's been fortunate given his 3-9, 4.85 ERA season. His counterpart, Eric Lauer, has a sparkling 11-2, 2.62 mark but no NERD data to grade him by. With gNERD at 11.13, this sits a touch above the historic average — watchable, if not appointment viewing, mostly because of the Dodgers' lineup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Los Angeles Dodgers

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This one's a mismatch on paper that could still deliver fireworks, thanks to a Nationals lineup that leads the majors in home runs and a Blue Jays offense that can't get out of its own way. Washington's 9.64 tNERD is comfortably above the historic 95th percentile, powered by strong batting and baserunning numbers, while Toronto's anemic 2.37 mark reflects a team that ranks 28th in MLB with a team slugging percentage of just .379. Cade Cavalli is the real draw here — his 7.17 pNERD is built on a lively fastball and strong peripherals, and he's been a legitimate strikeout arm, with 127 strikeouts in 110 2/3 innings across 23 starts this season. Shane Bieber, by contrast, is scuffling to a 2.43 pNERD with diminished velocity and command red flags. Washington's bullpen is the counterweight — Nationals pitchers combine for the fifth-worst WHIP in the majors, so a Cavalli gem could still get squandered late. The Jays did just take the series opener 3-2, so Toronto isn't dead on arrival. Overall gNERD of 10.80 sits right around league average — watch for Cavalli, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Both Arizona and Pittsburgh are jockeying for the same NL wild-card spot, which gives this one an actual stakes-driven pulse even if the NERD math is middling. The Diamondbacks arrive having Pfaadt returning to the mound as the Diamondbacks vie to snap a three-game skid after a stretch of 10 wins in 12 games, while Arizona enters tied with Pittsburgh for the National League's final wild-card spot. Chandler, just 23, comes in making his 20th start after throwing 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Yankees in his last outing, and his velocity (98.5 mph, a huge positive z-score) and youth prop up his pNERD despite a 12.4% walk rate that's worst among today's starters, with a 5.06 xFIP suggesting regression ahead. Pfaadt's peripherals are unspectacular too—modest swinging-strike rate and an xFIP- north of 100—though he's found results lately. The Pirates' offense (tNERD 7.16) is the headliner here, boosted by strong batting and baserunning numbers, while Arizona's lineup (4.95) is buoyed almost entirely by elite team defense. Historically this gNERD of 10.02 sits almost exactly at the all-time median, but it's below today's slate average of 11.31, making it a solidly average watch elevated mostly by playoff-race tension and Chandler's fastball rather than pitching artistry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

This one's mostly about San Diego's playoff push, not a well-pitched classic. The Padres, sitting two games out of the last NL wild-card spot with the trade deadline looming, host a Rockies team that's been thoroughly outclassed this year — their 6-1 record against Colorado this season, including a sweep at Petco Park in April, reflects a clear edge in this head-to-head. Colorado's road struggles are self-evident at Petco Park, where they carry an 18-36 road record, and the Rockies' tNERD of 1.13 (near the historical floor) confirms a lineup with little going for it. San Diego's 9.39 tNERD, meanwhile, ranks near the top of today's slate thanks to strong bullpen and baserunning marks. On the mound, Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.53 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 78 strikeouts) is scuffling, and his modest 2.67 pNERD reflects shaky peripherals despite some positive regression-luck. Michael King (6-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 103 strikeouts) isn't dazzling by NERD standards either (3.02), leaving this an 8.10 gNERD affair — below today's average and firmly middle-of-the-pack historically. Watch if you care about the Padres' playoff race; skip if you want crisp pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Good enough info gathered. Let me write the summary.

This one's mostly about watching a good pitcher face a fading team, not a marquee showdown between contenders. Taj Bradley has quietly turned into one of the better arms in the league this July, and the Royals' anemic bullpen and playoff-caliber Twins offense make this a lopsided watch on paper — though Lugo has his own case to make.

Hoping to bolster the Twins' postseason chances, Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.69 ERA) will look to stamp a solid July, and the 25-year-old is 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in his last five starts, throwing seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball against Cleveland in his last outing. His 97 mph velocity and youth show up plainly in his 6.55 pNERD, comfortably above today's 5.78 average. Lugo, meanwhile, is quietly making a case as a deadline chip: in two post-All-Star break starts, Lugo has made himself into an interesting trade candidate, allowing just four combined earned runs in 13 innings, including a win against San Francisco. His pNERD (3.68) undersells that recent stretch given his pedestrian velocity and lackluster whiff rate, but he historically hasn't fared well against Minnesota (1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in 10 career appearances against the Twins). Team-wise, both sides sit at a middling 2.64 tNERD — Kansas City's brutal bullpen drags it down, Minnesota's shaky defense and baserunning do the same — putting the 7.76 gNERD below both the historic and today's averages. Watch for the pitching, not the standings race.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup on paper, but Reid Detmers gives it a pulse worth checking in on. The Angels are 42-65 and playing out the string, while Houston is clinging to relevance two games back in the AL West, and that gap shows up in the tepid team NERD marks — Houston's 2.98 and the Angels' 1.57 are both well below the historical mean, with LA in particular dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning. The pitching matchup is lopsided in the other direction: Detmers, a 26-year-old lefty who threw a no-hitter back in 2022, has been quietly effective this year, leading the Angels in strikeouts and posting a 6.98 pNERD built on strong strikeout stuff and a tidy xFIP-. Peter Lambert, by contrast, checks in well below average at 2.55, more compiler than dominator despite his tidy win total. Yordan Alvarez remains a must-watch presence for Houston, batting .323 with 34 homers, while Mike Trout's recent four-hit game is a reminder he can still take over a game when healthy. Overall, at 7.04 the gNERD sits below both the historical and today's-slate averages — watch for Detmers, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

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