MLB: What to watch on July 29, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p
Summary
Highest gNERD score on the board today, and this one earns it on pure quality rather than randomness. Cam Schlittler is the story here—the AL ERA leader is fresh off a 7⅓-inning shutout gem against Philadelphia with 12 strikeouts, and his a 1.48 ERA in May swelled to 3.38 in June before he returned to form in July with a 2.05 ERA in four starts. His 10.44 pNERD is elite, driven by a filthy 97.8 mph average fastball, a stingy xFIP-, and an eye-popping strikeout rate; Paul Goldschmidt even floated Cy Young talk. Davis Martin is no slouch either, with a respectable 5.29 pNERD backed by strong contact management, though he's had a rough go over the last 30 days, with his poor underlying numbers suggesting the results are warranted. Both teams carry nearly identical tNERD scores in the 8.5-8.6 range—well above the historical 95th percentile of 8.60—thanks to Chicago's young, cheap roster and New York's power-and-speed combo. The White Sox arrive having lost four of five yet still atop the AL Central, while the Yankees are missing Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger but have still won this series' first two games. A well-rounded, watchable matchup all around.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 20.0 | 9.6% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 36.1 | $337.1M | 29.9 | -19.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.64 | 1.76 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 1.54 | 0.85 | -1.06 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.64 | 1.76 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.65 |
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 14.7 | 8.5% | -1.0 | 2.1 | 29.7 | $105.8M | 27.1 | -23.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.48 | 0.65 | -0.29 | 0.15 | 0.51 | -1.11 | -1.76 | -1.29 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.48 | 0.65 | -0.29 | 0.15 | 0.51 | 1.11 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 8.56 |
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 13.2% | 67.9% | 97.8 mph | 25 | 21.5s | -19 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.79 | 1.21 | 1.67 | 1.64 | -0.99 | 2.04 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.58 | 0.61 | 0.84 | 1.64 | 0.99 | -1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.44 |
Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 10.8% | 64.3% | 93.6 mph | 29 | 18.1s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.48 | 0.09 | 0.19 | -0.27 | 0.07 | -0.76 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.96 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.29 |
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins, 9:10a
Summary
Luzardo torching his old team headlines a game that ranks near the top of today's slate for watchability, even if the Marlins' offense figures to be mostly a bystander. Luzardo, an All-Star this year, carries a 10.56 pNERD into Miami, and the numbers back up the eye test: he's not allowed more than one earned run in any of his last six games, has struck out six or more in each, and he's already torched the Marlins, posting nine-plus strikeouts over six innings and allowing just two runs in his first two meetings with Miami this season. His xFIP- of 69 and 96.6 mph average velocity explain the strong pNERD, and a modest positive luck figure suggests even his gaudy numbers haven't fully caught up to his stuff. Gusto, by contrast, is a replacement-level type (4.19 pNERD) who's been alternating between the bullpen and rotation since being called up from Triple-A Jacksonville in early June. The Marlins' 9.83 tNERD is buoyed by a young, cheap roster and a hot streak of racing around the bases with Otto Lopez, currently drawing trade buzz, leading the majors in batting average. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is scuffling and has fallen further back in the NL East. Not a great pitching matchup on paper, but Luzardo alone makes it worth a look.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -46.3 | 7.7% | 7.1 | -6.2 | 39.6 | $309.8M | 30.5 | -18.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.37 | -0.17 | 1.41 | -0.36 | 0.98 | 1.22 | 1.36 | -1.01 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.37 | -0.17 | 1.41 | -0.36 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 5.33 |
Miami Marlins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.2 | 6.8% | 8.2 | 4.4 | 29.7 | $81.5M | 27.4 | 27.0 | 1.79 | 1.66 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | -1.08 | 1.64 | 0.30 | 0.51 | -1.39 | -1.49 | 1.53 | -1.17 | -1.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.07 | -1.08 | 1.64 | 0.30 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 9.83 |
Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 13.7% | 64.1% | 96.6 mph | 28 | 17.3s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.79 | 1.44 | 0.10 | 1.09 | -0.20 | -1.42 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.58 | 0.72 | 0.05 | 1.09 | 0.20 | 0.71 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.56 |
Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 9.2% | 65.4% | 93.7 mph | 27 | 19.1s | 3 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.09 | -0.65 | 0.62 | -0.23 | -0.46 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.18 | -0.33 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.46 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.19 |
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p
Summary
Chicago's fielding and offense make this one worth a look, and the Cardinals' season is dangling by a thread, which adds some drama even if St. Louis isn't the flashier side. The Cubs (61-46) have won seven of ten, riding a wild-card push and coming off back-to-back blowouts of St. Louis, including a 10-2 win that saw them overpower the Cardinals offensively for the second straight game, while St. Louis has lost eight of their last ten and as a result, their season is on life support. Chicago's tNERD of 8.74 is well above the historic 75th percentile, propped up by standout fielding and batting runs, though a shaky bullpen (-1.19) is a real weak spot. St. Louis's 6.30 is respectable too, boosted by a young, cheap roster that scores well on the age and payroll components. On the mound, Dustin May (6.44 pNERD) brings mid-90s-plus velocity and a strong xFIP-, and reports have him finding another gear recently, with his strikeout rate climbing over his last few starts. Matthew Boyd (5.28 pNERD) is steadier than flashy, with solid command peripherals. Combined gNERD of 13.38 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, making this one of the more watchable options.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 57.2 | 7.2% | 1.7 | 46.4 | -5.8 | $246.2M | 29.8 | 4.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.77 | -0.67 | 0.28 | 2.90 | -1.19 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.23 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.77 | -0.67 | 0.28 | 2.90 | -1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 8.74 |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -29.7 | 7.5% | 1.5 | 13.9 | 7.0 | $111.2M | 26.9 | -21.0 | 2.17 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.87 | -0.37 | 0.24 | 0.89 | -0.58 | -1.05 | -1.94 | -1.18 | -0.43 | -0.50 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.87 | -0.37 | 0.24 | 0.89 | -0.58 | 1.05 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.30 |
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 93 | 11.7% | 65.4% | 92.7 mph | 35 | 18.9s | -1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.42 | 0.51 | 0.65 | -0.68 | 1.66 | -0.10 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.85 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.28 |
Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91 | 9.9% | 65.2% | 96.9 mph | 28 | 21.4s | 20 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.54 | -0.33 | 0.56 | 1.23 | -0.20 | 1.96 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.08 | -0.16 | 0.28 | 1.23 | 0.20 | -0.98 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.44 |
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a
Summary
Great, this is exactly what I needed - a dramatic result. Let me write the summary now.
Tarik Skubal's likely farewell start in a Tigers uniform turned into an instant classic, and this recap captures why the whole night was must-watch. With the Aug. 3 trade deadline looming and Detroit lingering under .500, this was billed as Skubal's most anticipated outing—possibly his final start as a Detroit Tiger, as the trade deadline draws closer and the Tigers remain mired in the playoff race. He delivered a milestone moment, too: Skubal got his first standing ovation when he struck out leadoff hitter Taylor Ward on a 3-2 changeup to record his 1,000th career strikeout, then tipped his cap to the fans. But the story didn't end there—Skubal was taking a 7-0 shutout into the seventh inning against Baltimore, but then the Orioles rallied from a 7-0 deficit to beat Detroit 10-9 in 12 innings.
The NERD numbers back up the hype: this game's 13.37 gNERD sits comfortably above the historic average of 10.11, and well above today's slate average too. Skubal's 12.86 pNERD is elite—driven by a filthy 58 xFIP-, top-shelf swinging-strike and strike rates, and mid-90s-plus velocity—while Trevor Rogers is merely average opposite him. Both bullpens and lineups are middling by tNERD, but none of that matters once Skubal starts humming; just don't expect a shutout given how the last meeting between these two clubs went.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 15.0 | 8.2% | -1.5 | -7.9 | 27.4 | $214.8M | 29.0 | -3.0 | 2.82 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.49 | 0.34 | -0.39 | -0.47 | 0.40 | 0.14 | -0.02 | -0.16 | 0.85 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.49 | 0.34 | -0.39 | -0.47 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.81 |
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 3.1 | 8.8% | -3.5 | -12.0 | 8.6 | $239.2M | 29.6 | 15.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.13 | 0.95 | -0.81 | -0.72 | -0.50 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.13 | 0.95 | -0.81 | -0.72 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 4.51 |
Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 108 | 11.2% | 68.3% | 93.5 mph | 28 | 18.1s | -7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.43 | 0.28 | 1.82 | -0.32 | -0.20 | -0.76 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.86 | 0.14 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.57 |
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 58 | 16.6% | 68.7% | 96.8 mph | 29 | 18.2s | 6 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.42 | 2.79 | 2.01 | 1.19 | 0.07 | -0.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.84 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.86 |
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 4:10p
Summary
Chris Sale is worth clearing your schedule for, and the Mets' late-inning meltdowns make this Braves-Mets finale unexpectedly watchable too. This is the highest gNERD of the day, and it's not close — a 12.97 that sits comfortably above the historic 75th percentile and right in line with today's slate average of 10.97.
Sale is the headline: at 37, he's carrying a 192 ERA+, his best mark since 2018, and comes in carrying a 2.19 ERA and 134 strikeouts across 111.0 innings. His pNERD of 9.03 is driven by elite xFIP- and swinging-strike numbers, though his deliberate pace docks him slightly. Christian Scott, the Mets' Tommy-John-surgery-recovering righthander, is a solid complement with a 5.87 pNERD, even though he's coming off his shortest outing since his season debut, lasting just 3 2/3 innings against Milwaukee. He's also struggled specifically against Atlanta, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts against the Braves.
The Mets' offense is genuinely unpredictable — Francisco Lindor hit two of the Mets' four homers in a 14-3 romp over the Braves in the series opener — while Atlanta's bullpen has been overworked, giving extra intrigue to how long Sale can go. Both team tNERDs sit in solid-average territory, but the pitching matchup carries this one comfortably above the pack.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.2 | 8.8% | -0.1 | 6.5 | 36.7 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -35.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.00 | 0.95 | -0.10 | 0.43 | 0.84 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.97 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.00 | 0.95 | -0.10 | 0.43 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.12 |
New York Mets
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -29.5 | 8.6% | -3.5 | -6.5 | 31.8 | $374.9M | 29.9 | -3.0 | 3.32 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.86 | 0.75 | -0.81 | -0.38 | 0.61 | 1.97 | 0.85 | -0.16 | 1.82 | 1.41 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.86 | 0.75 | -0.81 | -0.38 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 4.00 | 4.92 |
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71 | 14.0% | 67.9% | 96.0 mph | 37 | 20.4s | -19 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.68 | 1.58 | 1.67 | 0.82 | 2.19 | 1.14 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.36 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.00 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.03 |
Christian Scott, New York Mets
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91 | 11.6% | 63.4% | 95.3 mph | 27 | 19.3s | -15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.54 | 0.46 | -0.17 | 0.50 | -0.46 | 0.23 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.08 | 0.23 | -0.09 | 0.50 | 0.46 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.87 |
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a
Summary
A near must-watch: a rookie-level pNERD gap between two hot pitchers, wrapped in a wild-card dogfight between two teams separated by a single game. Jared Jones, working back from Tommy John surgery, has been the story of Pittsburgh's July — he's allowed only three earned runs in 21 innings while going 1-0 over his past four starts, striking out 28 and walking only four batters, and his 98.6 mph average velocity and gaudy xFIP- of 79 back up the eye test, driving a 10.53 pNERD that's comfortably above today's average. Eduardo Rodriguez counters with a much shakier peripheral profile (2.36 pNERD, thin strikeout stuff), even though he's one of the league's hottest pitchers this year, having made his first All-Star team in his 11-year career — a classic results-versus-process mismatch. The Pirates' 7.34 tNERD, built on strong batting and baserunning, edges Arizona's more defense-and-luck-driven 4.97 mark. Layer on the stakes — the two teams are back where they started after splitting two extra-inning games, with Arizona holding a one-game edge in the wild-card race entering the finale — and the 12.60 gNERD, comfortably above the historical average, feels earned.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -33.0 | 7.1% | 4.3 | 25.9 | 24.5 | $231.6M | 30.2 | -23.0 | 2.19 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.97 | -0.78 | 0.82 | 1.63 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 1.08 | -1.29 | -0.39 | -0.99 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.97 | -0.78 | 0.82 | 1.63 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.97 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 39.9 | 8.4% | 5.5 | -14.0 | 20.1 | $119.1M | 28.8 | 2.0 | 2.01 | 1.98 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.24 | 0.54 | 1.07 | -0.85 | 0.05 | -0.96 | -0.20 | 0.12 | -0.74 | -0.86 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.24 | 0.54 | 1.07 | -0.85 | 0.05 | 0.96 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.34 |
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 108 | 8.0% | 62.5% | 92.0 mph | 33 | 18.3s | -46 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.43 | -1.21 | -0.54 | -1.00 | 1.13 | -0.60 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.86 | -0.61 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.36 |
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 79 | 13.6% | 62.9% | 98.6 mph | 24 | 18.6s | 7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.22 | 1.40 | -0.38 | 2.00 | -1.26 | -0.35 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.44 | 0.70 | -0.19 | 2.00 | 1.26 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.53 |
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p
Summary
Good news for the Brewers, bad news for anyone hoping for a pitcher's duel: this one leans on Milwaukee's excellent roster more than anything Logan Webb's opponent brings to the mound. The headline storyline is Thomas Pannone, a left-hander getting a surprise spot start after Milwaukee optioned Garrett Stallings and bumped Shane Drohan back a turn — Pannone returns to the major leagues after completing his recovery from a left forearm flexor tendon tear that sidelined him throughout the 2025 season, and it's just his second big-league appearance since 2023, so there's zero pNERD data to lean on and plenty of uncertainty. Webb, by contrast, has actually been struggling in July as he enters today with a 7.54 ERA, striking out just 13 batters over 22.2 innings, though his underlying xFIP- of 89 still earns him a solid 5.66 pNERD and he's owned this matchup before, having shut them out on one hit over seven innings in a 1-0 win at Milwaukee on June 3. The real draw is Milwaukee's tNERD of 8.81 — young, athletic, deep bullpen — against a slightly unlucky Giants club that's actually outperforming its peripherals. At 11.95, this gNERD sits comfortably above the historic average and squarely in today's middle tier.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 23.3 | 7.3% | 7.0 | -6.4 | 45.0 | $139.3M | 27.7 | -20.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.74 | -0.57 | 1.39 | -0.37 | 1.24 | -0.73 | -1.21 | -1.12 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.74 | -0.57 | 1.39 | -0.37 | 1.24 | 0.73 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 8.81 |
San Francisco Giants
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -4.9 | 7.3% | -5.6 | -4.3 | -0.3 | $228.3M | 29.6 | 28.0 | 3.20 | 3.49 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.12 | -0.57 | -1.25 | -0.24 | -0.93 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 1.58 | 1.59 | 2.34 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.12 | -0.57 | -1.25 | -0.24 | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.58 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 4.00 | 4.44 |
Thomas Pannone, Milwaukee Brewers
No detailed stats available
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 89 | 9.0% | 65.6% | 92.3 mph | 29 | 18.6s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.65 | -0.75 | 0.70 | -0.86 | 0.07 | -0.35 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.31 | -0.37 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.66 |
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 10:10a
Summary
A feel-good comeback story headlines this one more than the pitching stat lines do. AJ Smith-Shawver takes the mound for the first time since tearing his UCL in May 2025, and his final rehab tune-up—his fastball sat at 97.5 mph in his final rehab start, and the right-hander posted a 1.53 ERA across five Minor League outings—suggests the stuff is back even if the pitch count (built up to just 86) means a quick hook is likely. Since he's making his season debut, there's simply no data to grade him on, so his 0.00 pNERD is more "unknown quantity" than "bad pitcher." Across from him, Sean Manaea has been rough lately—posting a 5.08 FIP across his last two appearances while allowing 1.69 HR/9—though his 5.49 pNERD gets a boost from a lively strike rate and slow pace. This is the makeup half of a doubleheader after Monday's 14-3 Mets rout, so revenge is on the docket for Atlanta. The Braves' 6.12 tNERD (strong bullpen, solid barrel rate) edges the Mets' 4.92, and a 10.76 gNERD lands right around the historical middle—watchable mostly for the human-interest angle rather than the raw ledger.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.2 | 8.8% | -0.1 | 6.5 | 36.7 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -35.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.00 | 0.95 | -0.10 | 0.43 | 0.84 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.97 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.00 | 0.95 | -0.10 | 0.43 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.12 |
New York Mets
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -29.5 | 8.6% | -3.5 | -6.5 | 31.8 | $374.9M | 29.9 | -3.0 | 3.32 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.86 | 0.75 | -0.81 | -0.38 | 0.61 | 1.97 | 0.85 | -0.16 | 1.82 | 1.41 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.86 | 0.75 | -0.81 | -0.38 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 4.00 | 4.92 |
AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves
No detailed stats available
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 99 | 9.9% | 65.7% | 90.5 mph | 34 | 17.3s | 12 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.08 | -0.33 | 0.76 | -1.68 | 1.40 | -1.42 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.17 | -0.16 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.49 |
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p
Summary
This one's a slightly above-average matchup on paper, spiced up by an interesting split-city rivalry angle and a couple of lefty-vs-lineup wrinkles worth watching. Cleveland's gNERD of 10.41 sits just above the historical median and roughly in the middle of today's slate, propped up mostly by the Guardians' tNERD of 7.16 — a young, cheap, well-run club with solid bullpen and baserunning numbers, even if the bats have been quiet. Cincinnati's tNERD (4.12) drags in most respects, though a well-above-average barrel rate hints at thump if Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart connect; De La Cruz and Stewart have combined for 14 home runs off left-handed pitching, with Elly slashing .326/.398/.663 in the split. On the mound, Joey Cantillo (pNERD 5.21) brings swing-and-miss stuff but shaky control — an 11.2% walk rate, the highest among Cleveland's rotation regulars — while Brady Singer (pNERD 4.33) pounds the zone fast but is homer-prone, with a 5.21 FIP that sits well above his 4.53 ERA, suggesting regression ahead. Watchable, not essential.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -38.2 | 6.2% | 5.6 | 4.7 | 36.5 | $88.9M | 27.6 | 5.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.13 | -1.69 | 1.09 | 0.31 | 0.83 | -1.30 | -1.35 | 0.29 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.13 | -1.69 | 1.09 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.16 |
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -54.2 | 9.3% | -0.8 | -9.0 | -9.4 | $147.4M | 28.0 | 15.0 | 2.09 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.61 | 1.46 | -0.24 | -0.54 | -1.36 | -0.63 | -0.94 | 0.85 | -0.59 | -0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.61 | 1.46 | -0.24 | -0.54 | -1.36 | 0.63 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.12 |
Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 13.4% | 62.8% | 92.1 mph | 26 | 19.1s | -1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.14 | 1.30 | -0.44 | -0.95 | -0.73 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.28 | 0.65 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.73 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.21 |
Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 101 | 10.4% | 62.1% | 91.3 mph | 29 | 16.7s | 1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.03 | -0.09 | -0.74 | -1.32 | 0.07 | -1.92 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p
Summary
A middling gNERD score hides a genuinely lopsided pitching matchup and a Rays team riding a hot streak at the league's best home record. Texas brings MacKenzie Gore, whose 6.46 pNERD is buoyed by mid-90s velocity and strong strikeout stuff, but the underlying numbers mask real recent trouble — he's allowed three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts, posting a 5.80 ERA over his past 10 outings, and a 6.02 ERA on the road. Tampa Bay counters with a bullpen day, opening with Casey Legumina (pNERD 3.44) before Ian Seymour comes on in relief, a low-strikeout, contact-management arm whose modest peripherals limit his ceiling as a draw. The Rays themselves are surging, having won six of their past seven games with a bullpen that's been among the league's best since the All-Star break, and gone 38-16 at home, while Texas snagged the series opener 4-1. Both teams carry notable positive Luck components — Texas especially — hinting last night's and Gore's recent struggles could smooth out. Today's average gNERD sits at 10.97, so this 10.18 lands squarely in the middle of the pack: watchable for the pitching stuff and Tampa's home-field mojo, skippable if you need star power at every position.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)
Texas Rangers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 26.1 | 7.6% | -1.7 | -5.6 | 30.3 | $201.9M | 30.3 | 34.0 | 2.01 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.82 | -0.27 | -0.43 | -0.32 | 0.54 | -0.01 | 1.17 | 1.92 | -0.74 | -0.65 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.82 | -0.27 | -0.43 | -0.32 | 0.54 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.27 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 24.1 | 5.6% | 2.4 | -10.4 | 12.7 | $106.9M | 29.1 | 20.0 | 2.27 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.76 | -2.30 | 0.43 | -0.62 | -0.31 | -1.10 | 0.07 | 1.13 | -0.23 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.76 | -2.30 | 0.43 | -0.62 | -0.31 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.19 |
MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 94 | 11.6% | 63.7% | 95.5 mph | 27 | 19.8s | 23 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.37 | 0.46 | -0.08 | 0.59 | -0.46 | 0.64 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.74 | 0.23 | -0.04 | 0.59 | 0.46 | -0.32 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.46 |
Casey Legumina, Tampa Bay Rays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 113 | 9.4% | 66.8% | 93.3 mph | 29 | 17.2s | -17 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.71 | -0.56 | 1.20 | -0.41 | 0.07 | -1.50 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.43 | -0.28 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.44 |
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p
Summary
Good enough info. Let me write the summary.
San Diego's a legitimately fun team to watch right now, but the pitching matchup won't be what draws you in. The Padres are riding a four-game winning streak, having just walked off Colorado on a Xander Bogaerts sac fly in a chaotic, ejection-filled game that featured multiple Padres bench members and manager Craig Stammen getting tossed, and since the All-Star break the Padres rank first in MLB in batting average (.297). That offensive punch, plus a strong bullpen and fielding, gives San Diego a tNERD of 9.62 — well above the historical 95th percentile — while Colorado's 1.06 sits near the bottom of the pack, reflecting three losses in a row and a 3-7 mark over their last ten games. On the mound, Gabriel Hughes is intriguing as a young righty making the fourth start of his big league career, sporting a 2.79 ERA across 19.1 innings with 19 strikeouts to six walks, though we lack the underlying data to grade him. Kyle Hart, a converted starter-turned-reliever with a modest pNERD of 3.56, has quietly owned Colorado historically, holding a 2.70 ERA in 13.1 innings against them across five outings. Solid team watchability, unspectacular pitching.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
Colorado Rockies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -48.5 | 6.6% | -3.4 | -10.9 | 24.6 | $134.1M | 29.5 | 3.0 | 1.73 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.44 | -1.28 | -0.79 | -0.65 | 0.26 | -0.79 | 0.44 | 0.17 | -1.29 | -1.25 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.44 | -1.28 | -0.79 | -0.65 | 0.26 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.06 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -23.5 | 8.2% | 6.6 | 16.2 | 51.0 | $255.5M | 29.9 | -9.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.34 | 1.30 | 1.03 | 1.53 | 0.60 | 0.85 | -0.50 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.68 | 0.34 | 1.30 | 1.03 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 9.62 |
Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies
No detailed stats available
Kyle Hart, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 8.0% | 64.2% | 93.9 mph | 33 | 21.4s | 30 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.14 | -1.21 | 0.13 | -0.13 | 1.13 | 1.96 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.28 | -0.61 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.98 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.56 |
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p
Summary
A middling matchup elevated by a genuinely lopsided offensive mismatch and a pitching duel that skews heavily toward Seattle's side. This one lands right around league-average watchability, with the gNERD score of 9.22 sitting a bit below the historic median of 10.10 and well off today's slate average of 10.97.
The Dodgers' 9.43 tNERD is one of the stronger team scores you'll see, built on Randy Arozarena leading the Mariners in OBP and slugging while Josh Naylor paces his own team in slugging for Seattle, but it's Los Angeles doing the real offensive damage league-wide. Seattle's 3.16 tNERD reflects a shakier all-around roster, though the Mariners did just show some life, as Seattle improved to 53-55 by opening the series with a 7-6 victory featuring five solo home runs, including a two-homer game from Dominic Canzone. On the mound, Emerson Hancock is the actual reason to tune in — his 5.84 pNERD is well above average, backed by a strong xFIP- and above-average velocity, and he's been quietly effective at 6-4 with a 3.16 ERA. Eric Lauer, by contrast, grades out at a flat 0.00 pNERD, with concerning strikeout and contact-quality numbers to match his 5-5, 4.83 ERA line. Worth watching for Hancock's start, but temper expectations for a laugher on the scoreboard given the Dodgers' offense.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 3.9 | 7.9% | -4.0 | -24.5 | 24.3 | $196.7M | 28.4 | 7.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.15 | 0.04 | -0.91 | -1.50 | 0.25 | -0.07 | -0.52 | 0.40 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.15 | 0.04 | -0.91 | -1.50 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 3.16 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 63.1 | 9.3% | -2.9 | 18.7 | 37.3 | $413.5M | 30.0 | 8.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.95 | 1.46 | -0.68 | 1.18 | 0.87 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 0.46 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.95 | 1.46 | -0.68 | 1.18 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 9.43 |
Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 10.6% | 64.0% | 95.2 mph | 27 | 18.7s | -11 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.48 | -0.00 | 0.06 | 0.46 | -0.46 | -0.27 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.96 | -0.00 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.84 |
Eric Lauer, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 130 | 7.8% | 65.7% | 91.0 mph | 31 | 19.4s | -14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.68 | -1.31 | 0.75 | -1.45 | 0.60 | 0.31 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -3.36 | -0.65 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, 10:05a
Summary
A high-scoring, low-drama affair: good young stuff against shaky command, on a middling gNERD day. The Nationals bring one of the best offenses in the sport to the plate today, ranking among MLB's leaders in wRC+ and OPS, while the Blue Jays continue an oddly disappointing follow-up to last year's World Series run — Toronto sits ten games under .500 and near the bottom of the league in scoring. That gap shows up starkly in tNERD: Washington's 9.54 (thanks to a young, affordable roster with strong baserunning and batting production) dwarfs Toronto's 2.46, weighed down by poor barrel rates and baserunning. On the mound, 22-year-old Yesavage remains one of the game's top prospects and still shows swing-and-miss stuff, though he's been rocked lately, allowing 10 earned runs over his last three outings. Littell isn't much better by the underlying numbers — his xFIP- ranks in the game's worst percentile — though he's quietly limited damage in most starts since June. Overall gNERD of 9.14 lands below both the historical and today's averages, making this one more watchable for the standout hitters than the pitching matchup.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -41.7 | 6.3% | -5.3 | 16.3 | 34.3 | $306.1M | 30.1 | -2.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.23 | -1.59 | -1.19 | 1.04 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 0.99 | -0.11 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.23 | -1.59 | -1.19 | 1.04 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.46 |
Washington Nationals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 61.3 | 9.2% | 9.6 | -3.9 | -25.7 | $114.5M | 27.1 | -25.0 | 2.00 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.89 | 1.36 | 1.93 | -0.22 | -2.14 | -1.01 | -1.71 | -1.40 | -0.75 | -0.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.89 | 1.36 | 1.93 | -0.22 | -2.14 | 1.01 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 9.54 |
Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 109 | 13.8% | 62.1% | 94.4 mph | 22 | 18.4s | -15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.49 | 1.49 | -0.72 | 0.09 | -1.79 | -0.51 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.97 | 0.74 | -0.36 | 0.09 | 1.79 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.35 |
Zack Littell, Washington Nationals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 122 | 7.8% | 65.1% | 91.6 mph | 30 | 19.1s | 0 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.23 | -1.31 | 0.52 | -1.18 | 0.34 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.45 | -0.65 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 0.93 |
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p
Summary
Randy Dobnak's return to the majors is a genuinely fun story, and that's carrying more of this game's watchability than the NERD math alone. This one is a tick below average on the gNERD scale—today's slate ranges from 5.82 to 16.47, and 8.46 sits closer to the low end, mostly because both teams' tNERD marks (2.62 for Kansas City, 2.87 for Minnesota) are well under the historical mean of 5.23, dragged down by shaky bullpens and, for the Twins, middling fielding.
The 31-year-old righthander, and former Uber driver, kept his baseball dream alive, and pitching in Detroit last week brought back memories of independent ball, nine years almost to the day since the Twins first signed him. He's the expected starter for the Royals against his former team, and he's had two solid starts in his return to the majors, throwing 4.1 innings of one-run ball on July 18 and five shutout innings against the Tigers last week. There's no pNERD data on him yet, so treat that unknown as part of the appeal rather than a red flag.
Joe Ryan is the actual quality arm here, with a 6.44 pNERD built on strong strike-throwing and a tidy xFIP-, but he's walking in banged up: he returns to the mound after allowing eight runs on 10 hits in four innings in Cleveland, though he did allow just one run in six innings against the Royals back in June. The Royals have racked up 15 hits in 10 innings against Ryan this season, and he's allowed over 4.5 hits in four of his last five starts. Worth a look for Ryan's strikeouts and the Dobnak nostalgia tour, but don't expect a laugher on the scoreboard or in the standings race.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)
Kansas City Royals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -22.5 | 8.1% | 0.0 | 8.4 | -33.0 | $184.5M | 29.7 | 15.0 | 2.11 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.65 | 0.24 | -0.08 | 0.54 | -2.49 | -0.21 | 0.62 | 0.85 | -0.54 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.65 | 0.24 | -0.08 | 0.54 | -2.49 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.62 |
Minnesota Twins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 17.8 | 8.1% | -3.8 | -20.4 | 2.0 | $122.1M | 28.9 | -14.0 | 2.30 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.57 | 0.24 | -0.87 | -1.24 | -0.82 | -0.92 | -0.06 | -0.78 | -0.17 | -0.69 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.57 | 0.24 | -0.87 | -1.24 | -0.82 | 0.92 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.87 |
Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals
No detailed stats available
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 85 | 11.5% | 67.5% | 93.5 mph | 30 | 19.2s | -5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.88 | 0.42 | 1.48 | -0.32 | 0.34 | 0.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.76 | 0.21 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.44 |
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p
Summary
Skip this one unless you just like watching bad baseball happen efficiently. The Astros, sitting two games back in a tightening AL West race, roll into Anaheim riding a 7-3 stretch and have already taken the first two games of this series — including a Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez homer-fueled 3-2 win Tuesday. The Angels, 13.5 games out and losers of three straight at home, are mostly playing out the string, though Jo Adell's power surge is worth a glance. On the mound, Grayson Rodriguez owns an ugly 8.54 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 30 strikeouts — his 129 xFIP- is well below average, though a hefty positive luck figure suggests his results have actually been worse than his stuff, so some correction toward respectability is plausible. Hayden Wesneski's pNERD comes in blank; we simply don't have the data to size him up. With Houston's tNERD (3.17) and the Angels' (1.37) both scraping the bottom of today's range, and the gNERD of 6.15 sitting well under both the historical and today's averages, this is a game for the standings, not the highlight reel.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)
Houston Astros
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 15.8 | 8.3% | -4.9 | -5.9 | 8.8 | $232.7M | 28.9 | -4.0 | 2.17 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.51 | 0.44 | -1.10 | -0.34 | -0.49 | 0.34 | -0.16 | -0.22 | -0.42 | -0.84 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.51 | 0.44 | -1.10 | -0.34 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.17 |
Los Angeles Angels
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -18.7 | 8.4% | -7.4 | -25.3 | 10.6 | $191.6M | 28.6 | 4.0 | 2.59 | 2.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.54 | 0.54 | -1.62 | -1.55 | -0.41 | -0.13 | -0.39 | 0.23 | 0.40 | -0.80 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.54 | 0.54 | -1.62 | -1.55 | -0.41 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.37 |
Hayden Wesneski, Houston Astros
No detailed stats available
Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 129 | 8.5% | 62.8% | 96.1 mph | 26 | 18.2s | 73 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.63 | -0.98 | -0.46 | 0.87 | -0.73 | -0.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -3.25 | -0.49 | -0.23 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.76 |
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics, 6:40p
Summary
Boston Red Sox (55-51) are decent, Athletics rebuilding at 45-62 — this one is mostly for completionists and Sandoval's rehab watchers rather than must-see TV. The gNERD of 5.82 sits well below both the historical median (10.10) and today's slate average (10.97), so temper expectations.
The real story here is Patrick Sandoval, who is making his fourth start since returning from Tommy John surgery, and in his last outing tossed 4⅔ scoreless innings, scattering five hits and two walks and striking out three in a 6-4 win over the Blue Jays. That's a nice comeback arc, though there's no statistical profile yet (pNERD of 0.00) to judge his current stuff. Across the mound, Jacob Lopez owns the day's lowest pitcher grade at -1.89, driven by a rough xFIP- of 140 and shaky command, even though he did toss five shutout innings his last time out to pick up the decision in a 5-4 win over the Twins. Boston's tNERD (5.62) is respectable thanks to strong fielding and bullpen numbers, but Oakland's offense, defense, and bullpen all grade out poorly, dragging the team component down. Skip unless you're partial to lefty-on-lefty matchups or tracking Sandoval's rehab.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -27.4 | 7.2% | 0.2 | 17.0 | 42.8 | $263.6M | 29.2 | 10.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.80 | -0.67 | -0.03 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.80 | -0.67 | -0.03 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 5.62 |
Athletics
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.5 | 7.8% | -4.8 | -23.8 | -4.5 | $135.2M | 28.2 | 19.0 | 1.27 | 1.94 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.08 | -0.06 | -1.08 | -1.45 | -1.13 | -0.77 | -0.71 | 1.08 | -2.19 | -0.95 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.08 | -0.06 | -1.08 | -1.45 | -1.13 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox
No detailed stats available
Jacob Lopez, Athletics
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 140 | 8.9% | 60.0% | 90.5 mph | 28 | 19.7s | 2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 2.25 | -0.79 | -1.60 | -1.68 | -0.20 | 0.56 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -4.50 | -0.40 | -0.80 | 0.00 | 0.20 | -0.28 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 3.80 | -1.89 |
- ← Previous
MLB: What to watch on July 28, 2026