MLB: What to watch on July 31, 2026

• 31 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:10p

Summary

Two of the best arms in baseball facing off means this one's a must-watch, even if the box scores haven't been kind to one of them. This game's 17.34 gNERD sits near the top of both today's slate (average 11.09) and the historical distribution (95th percentile is 14.76), and the pitching matchup is the reason why. Paul Skenes brings his usual excellence — a 2.72 FIP, 30.4% strikeout rate, and only a 5.7% walk rate this season — and has been particularly nasty against Cincinnati, owning a 5-0 record with a 1.38 ERA, 52 strikeouts and six walks over 39 innings in his career against the Reds. Hunter Greene's actual pNERD-topping 12.25 tells a different story than his ugly 7.06 ERA suggests: his underlying peripherals (3.20 FIP, 3.09 xFIP) suggest his results have been far worse than his stuff, a classic case of bad luck (and a return from an early-season elbow injury) masking real swing-and-miss ability. The Reds' offense has been genuinely poor this year, dragging their tNERD down, while the Pirates counter with solid baserunning and pop but shaky defense. Elly De La Cruz has been a standout at home, hitting .320 with a .970 OPS and 10 home runs in 172 at-bats at Great American Ball Park, giving Skenes at least one dangerous bat to navigate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

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New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Good stuff — plenty of storylines here. Let me write the summary.

A Wrigley Field matinee with real fielding wizardry and an offense-vs-lefty-with-a-barrel-problem subplot makes this the most watchable game on the board today. Both tNERD marks are near the top of what we've seen this year — the Cubs' 9.23 is boosted by elite team defense (fielding runs cratering z-scores at 3.10) and a strong batting attack, while the Yankees check in at 8.54 thanks to raw power (top-tier barrel rate) and baserunning value, even while missing Aaron Judge, who landed on the 60-day injured list with a rib injury and, as of the latest team updates, was still working through scans before resuming baseball activities, plus Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton. Imanaga is the headliner on the mound, a lefty who has a 1.10 WHIP that dwarfs Will Warren's 1.41, and who's coming off an outstanding July, posting a 1.19 ERA across four starts, including back-to-back scoreless outings. Warren, by contrast, has been rough lately — allowing six earned runs in three innings in his last outing, part of a subpar July where he's 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA — though his xFIP still checks out fine underneath the noise. Pete Crow-Armstrong versus a shorthanded Yankees lineup is worth watching too.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

New York Yankees

Chicago Cubs

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 6:45p

Summary

A near-elite pitching prospect matchup makes this one worth carving out time for, even if the Giants' own starter is a total mystery. Bradgley Rodriguez brings a 9.71 pNERD to the mound for San Diego, the kind of number that jumps out — a 22-year-old touching 98 mph with a strong whiff rate and a tidy 86 xFIP-, all pointing to a legitimately electric arm. His counterpart, Carson Whisenhunt, carries a 0.00 pNERD simply because we don't have the underlying data to grade him yet, so consider that half of the ledger a coin flip. On the team side, San Diego's 8.82 tNERD leans heavily on an outstanding bullpen (plus-53.7 runs) and solid glove work, while Manny Machado (23 homers, 64 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (121 hits, 25 steals) anchor the offense. San Francisco's 4.78 tNERD is held back by shaky baserunning and bullpen work, though Luis Arraez is hitting .328 with 135 hits for the visitors, even with Casey Schmitt out with a leg injury. A 14.15 gNERD sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — this one's a legitimate priority.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Bradgley Rodriguez, San Diego Padres

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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

A Dodgers lineup that's raking against everyone not named Yamamoto or Glasnow meets a Red Sox club playing better than its record, and the gNERD score of 13.59 sits comfortably above both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate (11.09). Los Angeles carries the best tNERD in this matchup (9.51) on the strength of a lineup that's hitting .251 over its past 23 games with a .428 slugging percentage—wait, that's Boston, and it fits: the Red Sox are legitimately raking against right-handers lately. Ranger Suarez is the headliner here, his 6.84 pNERD driven by a sharp 77 xFIP- despite diminished velocity, and he's set to face a Dodgers lineup that's the first of three consecutive left-handed starting pitchers for the Red Sox this weekend, with the Dodgers 19-12 against opposing southpaws this season. On the other side, Edgardo Henriquez is essentially an unknown quantity by the numbers (0.00 pNERD), and reports suggest the Dodgers may lean on a bullpen game rather than a true traditional start. Contreras and Ohtani give this one some thump, and both teams enter riding modest winning streaks, adding a bit of juice to an already well-built matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Dodgers

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Edgardo Henriquez, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Nationals-Braves at Truist Park offers a sneaky-good watch, built on a surprisingly hot Washington offense and a Braves bullpen that's quietly become a liability. This game's 13.46 gNERD sits comfortably above today's 11.09 average and last well above the historical median of 10.10, driven mostly by a Nationals lineup carrying real thump. James Wood and CJ Abrams have combined for 57 home runs and 154 RBIs this season, and Washington's tNERD of 9.51 is buoyed by strong batting and baserunning marks, though a bullpen posting a -2.07 z-score is the obvious soft spot. Atlanta counters with a fine barrel rate and a bullpen that actually grades out positively here, despite a Braves team whose bullpen "is not what its reputation promises right now" according to at least one bettor's read. On the mound, Foster Griffin has been the story of Washington's rotation, sporting a sparkling 12-2 record with a 2.76 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 124.0 innings, and his 6.11 pNERD reflects genuinely strong peripherals, not just win-loss luck. Bryce Elder is solid if unspectacular, with a quick pace helping his cause. Worth your evening.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

A last-look game at a fading Met before the trade deadline scatters him elsewhere, with a scrappy young Marlins team that just can't win on the road. Freddy Peralta's turn against Miami is very likely his farewell start in Queens — the Mets have already begun their deadline teardown, reportedly beginning their trade deadline teardown after Thursday's game, shipping reliever A.J. Minter to Minnesota, with Raley and Peralta, each in the final season of their contracts, likely to follow Minter out the door before Monday's deadline. That gives this one a bit of "watch him while you can" appeal, even though New York sits in last place in the National League East and 10 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot.

On the numbers, Miami's 9.98 tNERD is the story: elite baserunning, a young, cheap roster, and positive luck (they've underperformed their run differential, so expect better days ahead) make them the more watchable side, while the Mets scrape by mostly on bullpen depth and broadcast polish. Neither starter is special — Peralta (4.54 pNERD) and Junk (3.62) both grade as middling, though Peralta's own positive luck suggests his 4.99 ERA overstates his struggles. Miami's also riding a seven-game road losing streak, adding a little unresolved tension. Overall gNERD of 11.51 lands a touch above both the historical and today's averages — a decent, not essential, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Dylan Cease pitching with Cy Young stuff against a fading Cardinals team gives this game a real reason to watch, even if both clubs are staring at the trade deadline instead of the postseason. Cease's pNERD of 10.14 is comfortably in this dataset's upper tier, built on a filthy Statcast arsenal — his xFIP- of 64 and 97-mph heat back up a season where he's racked up 167 strikeouts while flashing dominance at his best. Leahy is the far more modest complement (pNERD 4.39), but he's not chopped liver lately, having compressed his ERA to 1.35 with a 0.80 WHIP over his last four starts. Neither team brings much thump to the plate: Toronto's tNERD of 2.36 reflects a lineup buried in the bottom quartile for barrel rate, and both St. Louis and Toronto are sitting well outside the playoff picture, going a combined 7-16 over their last 10 games. Guerrero's hamstring has him day-to-day, so watch the lineup card. With a gNERD of 11.34, this sits a touch above the historical average — mostly on Cease's arm, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

St. Louis Cardinals

Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Milwaukee's the clear class of this matchup, and while it's not a marquee showdown, there's enough here to justify a background tab. The Brewers arrive at 67-41 atop the NL Central with the best pitching staff top to bottom in the league, and their tNERD of 8.87 reflects genuine strengths in baserunning, bullpen depth, and a young roster, all pushing well above today's average team score. The Angels, mired in a three-game skid at 42-67, bring the league's worst tNERD in this matchup by a wide margin, undercut by shaky fielding and baserunning, though Zach Neto and Mike Trout remain live threats in that lineup.

On the mound, Drohan is having a solid rookie season with a 3.51 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 82 strikeouts over 82 innings, though he's coming off his worst start of the year against the Rockies. His command profile backs up the 7.00 pNERD, comfortably above today's average. Across the diamond, Johnson posts a 3.01 FIP... wait, that's Drohan's — Johnson's own 6.28 FIP and 5.00 xFIP with an 18.0% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate leave little margin for error, though a hefty positive luck score suggests his results have been worse than his stuff deserves. Overall gNERD lands just above the historical median — watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Angels

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros, 5:15p

Summary

Good, I have plenty. Now I'll write the summary.

A tight AL West rivalry game with real playoff stakes and a sharp pitching contrast makes this worth flipping on. Texas holds a half-game lead over Houston, and this series doubles as the decider for the season's Silver Boot bragging rights and tiebreaker — the Astros need to win one of the three games to win the season series and secure the tiebreaker, with Texas holding a half-game lead over Houston after losing two of three to the AL-leading Rays. Eovaldi is the show here: his 8.54 pNERD is well above both the historic 75th percentile and today's slate average, built on a sharp xFIP- and a strong swinging-strike rate, and the underlying numbers back it up — the underlying metrics suggest Eovaldi has been the better pitcher this season, and his xFIP sits at 2.73 over the last month, trailing only Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez among today's starters. Brown, by contrast, is scuffling with control (his Strike% component is deeply negative) and has dealt with severe control issues, walking batters 14% of the time, with a 5.04 xFIP. Texas's tNERD (6.09) is comfortably above average too, aided by a hefty positive luck score suggesting they've actually underperformed their skill level and could keep hitting. Houston's offense has pop but leaks runs on the bases and in the field, capping their tNERD at a middling 3.13. Overall gNERD of 10.40 sits right around the historic median — solid, division-race theater more than a marquee slugfest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Houston Astros

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

Diamondbacks battered rotation makes for a fascinating watch, if not necessarily a great one: this is more about survival than star power. The Guardians are the more entertaining team on paper, with a tNERD of 7.30 built on a young, cheap roster (payroll and age both boosting their score) and a strong bullpen, while Arizona's 4.77 tNERD leans on good fielding and baserunning but drags on offense and barrel rate. On the mound, Tanner Bibee brings a modest but real 3.16 pNERD, held back some by pedestrian strikeout stuff and a slow pace, but he's serviceable. Mitch Bratt is the wildcard — no statistical profile to speak of, and the underlying numbers are ugly: a 6.32 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP and 10 strikeouts, while allowing 20 hits and 11 walks in 15.2 innings pitched, with Arizona's rotation already gutted by injury, missing Burnes and Gallen among others. Jose Ramirez lurks as a real threat against Bratt's home-run tendencies. Overall gNERD of 10.11 is right at the historic median — not a must-watch, but not a skip either, especially with Cleveland's crowded-basepaths, high-hits formula in play.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Cleveland Guardians

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Both teams are fighting for playoff position, and this one has some real September-relevance weight even in late July. This is a solid mid-tier watch: a wild-card scramble with two clubs clinging to the fringes of October, though the pitching matchup is a coin flip since Philadelphia hasn't named its starter. The Phillies arrive scuffling — Philadelphia is scuffling a bit having lost three in a row and eight of their last ten to drop to seven games behind the Braves, and their hold on the final Wild Card spot is down to two games over San Diego. Baltimore isn't much better positioned but has momentum of the emotional kind, sitting 2.5 games out of the final American League playoff spot and coming off a walk-off win over Atlanta.

Brandon Young gets the ball for the Orioles carrying an 8-2 record and a 3.13 ERA — a pitcher who has been one of the more reliable starters in the league, though his modest 3.76 pNERD (right around league average) reflects a fairly ordinary strikeout/walk profile beneath that shiny ERA — his xFIP- of 106 suggests he's been a bit fortunate. Philadelphia's mystery starter contributes nothing to the score by default. Both offenses are middling-to-mediocre this year, with the tNERD gap barely worth mentioning; Philly's edge comes mostly from a strong bullpen and aggressive baserunning, not thump. Overall, a 9.59 gNERD lands below the historical average and near the middle of today's slate — watchable if the race storylines pull you in, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Baltimore Orioles

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

Two flawed teams, but a real pitching matchup worth flipping to. Both the Twins and Mariners are stuck in the mid-50s in the loss column and jockeying for third place in their respective divisions, but Bryce Miller gives Seattle a legitimate reason to tune in. Miller enters with a 4-5 record, 2.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts, and his 7.88 pNERD (well above the 4.89 historical average) reflects genuinely sharp peripherals, with strong strikeout and xFIP-driven components. Zebby Matthews is the lesser story on the mound, with a pedestrian surface line but his 5.46 pNERD gets a boost from plus velocity and some positive regression expected given his underlying numbers have been better than his results.

Both offenses have punch — the Twins have the fourth-ranked team slugging percentage in the AL at .405 — but neither team's tNERD (2.63 for Minnesota, 3.19 for Seattle) is doing this game any favors, both sitting well below the historical average of 5.23, dragged down by poor fielding and baserunning marks on both sides. The overall gNERD of 9.58 lands just below today's slate average of 11.09, making this a middling but not unwatchable option — worth catching for Miller's start and Julio Rodríguez's presence in the Seattle lineup, but not a must-see. Notably, both clubs are dealing with a rash of pitching injuries, including Minnesota's Pablo López and Seattle's Matt Brash, which has thinned the depth on display here.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Minnesota Twins

Seattle Mariners

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Two first-place clubs meet in a series opener that's heavier on tNERD intrigue than pitching fireworks. The White Sox, improbably atop the AL Central, bring a young, cheap roster with real thump — Tampa Bay is 40-16 in home games and 64-44 overall, while Chicago is 23-30 on the road and 57-51 overall — and Chicago's tNERD (8.39) reflects that youthful, low-payroll appeal, boosted by a bullpen that's quietly been solid. Tampa Bay's tNERD (4.55) lags mostly because of a thin barrel rate, though positive luck suggests some correction is coming. On the mound, Nick Martinez is the story: an All-Star leading Tampa in wins, and he's posted a 3.21 xERA across his last four appearances, allowing just 1.19 BB/9 and 0.79 HR/9 with a 27.4% hard-hit rate. Erick Fedde, by contrast, has been fading — he's allowed a 55.6% hard-hit rate over the last month, compared to his season average of 40.5% — and his modest pNERD (1.19) reflects thin strikeout stuff. With a combined gNERD of 8.37, below today's average, this is more standings drama than must-see pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Casey Mize is confirmed as the Tigers' starter (listed as TBD in our data). Now I have enough to write the summary.

Not a slate-topper, but worth a peek if you like watching a bullpen implosion in real time. The A's are in genuine freefall — missing Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Zack Gelof to knee injuries — and it shows in a tNERD of just 3.07, dragged down by ugly marks in fielding, baserunning, and a bullpen that's been outright bad this year. Detroit's 4.55 tNERD is more middling than exciting, buoyed mostly by barrel rate and some positive batting luck that suggests slight regression toward better results. On the mound, Jeffrey Springs carries a modest 2.41 pNERD, and the underlying gap between that and his actual results is notable: his ERA has ballooned over 10.00 across his last three starts, so his positive luck score of 1.00 undersells just how rough it's been lately. Detroit counters with Casey Mize, unlisted in our data but reportedly sharp of late, facing a lineup that can't buy a rally. At 7.51, tonight's gNERD sits well below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate average (11.09) — a game to have on in the background rather than build your night around.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Athletics

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Both teams are well out of contention: Kansas City sits at 46-64 and Colorado at 42-67, so this is a game for stat nerds and Coors Field tourists rather than pennant-race chasers.

This one's a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup on paper, and the gNERD score agrees — a 4.03 sits well below the historic average and near the low end of today's slate. Kansas City brings a lineup led by Tyler Tolbert (.333) as a table-setter, with Michael Massey (.266, 8 HR, 36 RBI) providing steady middle-of-the-order pop, but the Royals' tNERD of 3.03 is dragged down hard by a bullpen that grades out disastrously (-2.54), the worst component on either side of the ledger. Colorado's tNERD of 0.95 is even bleaker, undercut by weak batting runs, a low barrel rate, and shaky baserunning and defense — though Hunter Goodman has been one of the more productive hitters in the National League regardless of standings, with 31 home runs. On the mound, Michael Wacha (pNERD 3.94) is only middling, but Tomoyuki Sugano checks in at a near-zero 0.14, reflecting a below-average strikeout rate and elevated xFIP-, even as he takes the ball for Colorado with a 10-win season already in hand. If you tune in, it's for Coors Field trivia and the fun quirks in the box score, not for stakes or aces.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Colorado Rockies

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

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