MLB: What to watch on August 1, 2026

• 01 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

I have enough information from my searches to write a well-supported summary.

Payton Tolle's first look at a Dodgers lineup loaded with October ghosts is the story here, and the Dodgers' star-studded roster combined with a legitimate pitching duel makes this one of the day's better watches. Tolle, Boston's former second-round pick and top pitching prospect, made his major-league debut just last summer against Paul Skenes and the Pirates, and this outing gives fans a chance to see the 23-year-old lefty—armed with elite extension and a five-pitch mix—test himself against a genuine championship-caliber lineup rather than a rebuilding club.A rookie fireballer taking on a stacked Dodgers lineup, in a game that ranks near the top of the day's watchability charts—this one's worth clearing your schedule for. The gNERD of 16.18 sits comfortably above both today's average (11.35) and the historic norm (10.11), driven largely by the Dodgers' tNERD of 9.48, one of the stronger offensive-and-defensive packages you'll see, powered by elite batting runs and a barrel rate that would make any pitcher nervous. Boston's 5.86 tNERD is more middling, propped up by a strong bullpen and a bit of positive luck suggesting they've actually underperformed their true talent level.

On the mound, Payton Tolle, the Red Sox's second-round pick out of TCU, was ranked as the team's No. 2 prospect, compiling a 3.44 ERA with 133 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings before rocketing to the majors. His pNERD of 9.06 reflects excellent strike-throwing and swinging-strike marks for a 23-year-old with mid-90s velocity. Yamamoto counters with a 7.95 pNERD, anchored by a sparkling 79 xFIP-, making this a legitimately compelling pitching matchup wrapped around a lopsided but entertaining lineup mismatch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Dodgers

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Ashcraft's stuff still plays even if his recent results look like a bad joke, making this the more watchable half of an otherwise middling Central tilt. Pittsburgh's righty carries the day's best pNERD (11.66) on a mid-90s heater that's actually averaging 97, elite strike-throwing, and peripherals that carry a 3.48 xERA, .290 xwOBA allowed, 26.6% strikeout rate, and 20.7% K-BB rate. The gaudy ERA damage is recent and loud — a 10.29 ERA with 16 earned runs over 14.0 innings in his last three starts — but the skills say regression toward his first-half dominance, not collapse. Abbott, by contrast, is exactly what a 2.58 pNERD suggests: a 3.85 ERA that undersells more vulnerability, with a 4.74 xERA and .334 xwOBA, and xFIP and SIERA sitting above his ERA. Team-wise, Pittsburgh's tNERD (7.33) edges Cincinnati's (4.87), fitting a Pirates club trying to end a four-game skid against a Reds team quietly outperforming its underlying numbers. Combined 13.22 gNERD lands comfortably above today's 11.35 average — worth a look mostly for Ashcraft's bounce-back potential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 1:10p

Summary

A surprisingly lively midday matchup between two first-place clubs, anchored by a genuinely excellent Rasmussen start against a reliever masquerading as a starter. The gNERD of 13.00 sits comfortably above both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate (11.35), and the pitching matchup is doing the heavy lifting. Rasmussen has completed 20 conventional starts, while Hicks has worked exclusively in relief before this assignment, which explains Hicks' 0.00 pNERD (no starter data exists) against Rasmussen's sparkling 7.94, built on a stingy xFIP- of 78 and plus velocity. Rasmussen enters 9-5 with a 3.07 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, and his run prevention looks skill-supported. Meanwhile Hicks owns a 3.19 ERA over 31 innings, but his 22 walks against 36 strikeouts create traffic risk — an opener experiment worth watching just to see how Chicago manages the bullpen game. On the team side, a young, cheap White Sox roster (8.40 tNERD) squares off against a Rays club whose bat-to-ball skills undersell them thanks to a weak barrel rate. The Rays lead the 2026 season series 3-1, though the White Sox have covered the run line in all four games — a tidy subplot for an otherwise well-built pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Jordan Hicks, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs, 4:15p

Summary

Two of baseball's more talented rosters meet at Wrigley in a game that rates comfortably above average without being an obvious must-watch. The Cubs (62-47) edge the Yankees (61-48) on paper too, with a tNERD of 9.08 built on a matchup at Wrigley Field where Chicago's fielding runs are outstanding and their bats have been productive. New York counters with a hard-barreling, base-stealing, deep-bullpen 8.36 tNERD, though Jazz Chisholm is not in the lineup with a leg issue and Carlos Rodon's rehab remains uncertain after throwing a "two up" session that went well, with no clarity on a minor-league rehab start. Seiya Suzuki also sits out for Chicago, though Nico Hoerner has been rolling, going 3-for-5 with a stolen base in Thursday's extra-innings win over the Cardinals. On the mound, neither Fried nor Peterson is a marquee arm — Fried's strong xFIP- is undercut by a plodding pace, while Peterson's solid strikeout stuff comes with some bad luck that suggests better results ahead. Overall gNERD of 12.84 sits above the historic 75th percentile and above today's slate average, making this a solidly watchable, if not spectacular, ballgame.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

New York Yankees

Chicago Cubs

Max Fried, New York Yankees

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros, 4:10p

Summary

Jacob deGrom, at 38, is still throwing 97 with elite swing-and-miss stuff — that alone makes this worth flipping on, even if the surrounding series stakes and Astros' shaky bullpen back it up as one of the better watches on today's slate. This is a Silver Boot rubber match with real stakes: the series at Daikin Park will decide the Silver Boot winner in 2026, with the Astros needing to win one of three games to secure the season series and bragging rights. deGrom (10.65 pNERD, comfortably above today's 5.85 average) is filthy — his xFIP- of 75 and swinging-strike rate are both well above league norms, and he remains one of the most dangerous starters in the league when healthy and gives Texas a genuine ace-level weapon. Opposite him is Ronel Blanco, who's been rocked to an 8.10 ERA in a tiny sample and carries a 0.00 pNERD simply because there's no reliable profile yet — a steep drop from his no-hitter pedigree. Texas (6.05 tNERD) brings a solid all-around profile and is due for better luck after a rough alignment between results and skill; Houston's 3.33 tNERD is dragged down by poor baserunning and bullpen. At 12.51, the gNERD sits above the historical average, driven almost entirely by the deGrom mismatch — tune in for the ace, stay for the division tension.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Houston Astros

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:15p

Summary

A modest Saturday matchup elevated mostly by playoff stakes and a genuinely intriguing lefty on the mound for Cleveland. The Diamondbacks roll into Progressive Field having won their third straight game and moved into sole possession of the second wild-card spot in the National League, an NL-best 13-5 since July 9, while the Guardians are scuffling — sitting three games back in the AL Central at 56-55, with just three wins in their last ten. That contrast in trajectory gives this one some juice even though neither club hits the ball especially hard: both teams post below-average barrel rates and negative batting-runs marks, offset by strong baserunning and fielding for Arizona and a young, cheap, deep bullpen for Cleveland, whose 7.28 tNERD leads this matchup and sits comfortably above today's average of 5.64. The pitching matchup is lopsided — Parker Messick's 7.59 pNERD is buoyed by a sharp xFIP-, a quick pace, and his age, well above today's average of 5.85, while Kohl Drake's total absence of data (pNERD of 0.00) suggests a limited big-league track record worth watching just to see what he's got. Overall gNERD of 12.32 clears both the historical median (10.10) and today's slate, making this a solidly watchable game for wild-card race fans.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Cleveland Guardians

Kohl Drake, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Based on my research, here's the summary:

Sánchez a legit ace start makes this one worth catching, even if the Orioles' offense doesn't inspire much confidence. Baltimore enters looking to complete a series-flip after grinding out comeback wins, with manager Craig Albernaz noting the recent formula has come in the form of comebacks this week, with the club scratching and clawing back into games as they chase an AL wild card spot. That scrappy, never-say-die vibe adds a little juice, but the pitching matchup is lopsided on paper: Cristopher Sánchez owns a 10.32 pNERD (95th-percentile territory historically) built on elite xFIP- and a well above-average swinging-strike rate, making him one of the more watchable arms on any given day. Shane Baz, by contrast, checks in at a modest 3.77 pNERD, with plus velocity offset by mediocre command markers and a slow pace that saps some tension between pitches. Team-wise, neither club stands out — Philadelphia's lineup has actually been a drag on its tNERD despite strong bullpen and baserunning marks, while Baltimore is roughly average across the board. Add it up and you get a 12.21 gNERD, comfortably above the historical average and right around today's slate average — a good, not great, watch elevated mostly by Sánchez's presence on the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Baltimore Orioles

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

The Marlins bring the more interesting roster and the better NERD profile, but this is really about whether the Mets' anemic offense can find enough runs without Juan Soto to make it competitive. Miami's tNERD of 9.91 is comfortably above both the historic and today's-game averages, fueled by strong baserunning, a young, cheap roster, and some notable negative luck that suggests better days ahead. New York's lineup, already thin, just lost its best hitter to a calf injury, leaving a lineup that already ranked among the weakest offensive units in the league. On the mound, Tyler Phillips brings a modest but positive pNERD (3.88), built on above-average velocity, though his xFIP suggests he's more replacement-level than ace. Zac Thornton carries a 0.00 pNERD simply because we lack the underlying data to grade him — treat that as a blank slate rather than a knock. Miami arrives having lost 12 in a row before a Phillies sweep, so there's some late-summer unpredictability at play too. Worth a look for the tNERD gap alone, even if the pitching matchup is unremarkable.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

A trade-deadline tune-up between a fading Giants team and a Padres club clinging to playoff hopes, this one leans more on team quality than pitching artistry. San Diego's tNERD of 9.09 sits well above the historic 95th percentile, fueled by a bullpen (z-score 1.65) and defense that actually holds up, while the Giants' 4.59 is comparatively pedestrian — no surprise given San Francisco sits under .500 and 21-36 on the road. The pitching matchup won't wow you: Mahle and Buehler carry near-identical pNERD marks around 4.5, both dragged down by shaky strike-throwing and modest velocity, though both get a lucky bump — Buehler has allowed four runs while striking out 10 batters over his last 11 innings, though he owns a 5.13 ERA over 21 starts, an up-and-down season depending which reports you trust. Mahle, meanwhile, carries a 4.96 ERA on the year but threw six shutout innings in his last start against Milwaukee. With the teams meeting for the ninth time this season and the series tied 4-4, there's some rivalry spice, but the 11.39 gNERD lands almost exactly at today's slate average — solidly watchable, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

This one's about a first-place juggernaut running through a last-place club, but Soriano's arm makes it worth flipping on for a few innings. Milwaukee arrives at Angel Stadium sitting atop the NL Central at 67-41, and Brewers pitchers have a collective 3.50 ERA, which leads the NL. The Angels, meanwhile, are mired in a five-game home slide and own the league's worst offensive-supporting cast on this slate, reflected in a tNERD score that's near rock bottom for the season. Soriano is the actual draw here — a 96-plus mph fastball, a strong xFIP-, and enough swing-and-miss stuff to headline this pairing, even though he has also issued a league-worst 57 walks this year. Gasser, making his first career appearance against the Angels, has quietly turned a corner too, having totaled 11 innings with just three runs allowed and nine strikeouts against the Marlins and Rockies in his last two outings. The gNERD of 11.09 lands a bit above today's average, driven almost entirely by Milwaukee's excellent all-around team profile and Soriano's arm — not by any expectation of a tight game given the standings gap.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Angels

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Two sluggers chasing homers and a division race already settled make this more of a batting-practice showcase than a pitching duel. Matt Olson (29 homers) and James Wood (30, fifth in the NL) headline lineups that should keep the ball flying, and that fits the Nationals' hefty 9.69 tNERD — buoyed by strong barrel rates, baserunning, and a young, cheap roster — against Atlanta's more middling 6.15. Washington sits 10.5 games back with the division race essentially over, but the roster still has juice even if the bullpen (a serious liability, worth -2.06 in components) keeps blowing it.

On the mound, neither arm brings much shine: Mikolas is struggling at a 5.65 ERA with just three wins for Washington and his tiny 0.1% SwStr rate signals real swing-and-miss issues, though positive luck suggests some correction could be coming. López is steadier — carrying a 3.64 ERA and four wins, a reliable mid-rotation arm — but neither profile screams "must-watch." Add in Luis García Jr.'s day-to-day knee issue and a thinned-out Nationals pitching staff, and this lands as a solidly average game — decent lineups, unremarkable arms, watch for the homers rather than the pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

Logan Gilbert is quietly having one of the better seasons among AL starters, and that alone makes this worth a look even though the team-level baseball on display is fairly pedestrian. The Mariners are trying to snap a three-game skid, sitting 30-24 at home but 53-58 overall, while the Twins arrive at 56-55 having taken the series opener behind a Royce Lewis homer and a clutch Luke Keaschall double. Gilbert's stuff backs up the pNERD of 7.38 — his xFIP- of 84 and strong swinging-strike rate suggest he's actually pitching a shade better than his solid earned run numbers already indicate. His opposite number, rookie lefty Connor Prielipp, is a different story: he made his MLB debut in 2026 and while his velocity and youth give him a respectable 6.64 pNERD, his 4.73 ERA and 8 home runs allowed in 72.1 innings make him a credible threat to blow up an inning early. Both offenses are middling and the defenses are shaky on both sides, so the 9.78 gNERD lands below today's 11.35 average — watch for Gilbert's command, not for complete-game artistry from the Twins' newcomer.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Minnesota Twins

Seattle Mariners

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Quinn Mathews is set to make his major league debut, and Kevin Gausman is throwing what might be his last start in a Blue Jays uniform before the trade deadline. That mix of novelty and uncertainty gives this game a little juice, even if the overall NERD numbers land below average.

St. Louis lefty rookie Quinn Mathews will make his MLB debut, while righty Kevin Gausman is on the hill for Toronto in what could be his final start for the Blue Jays as he's been the subject of trade rumors. Mathews arrives with a blank pNERD slate since there's no track record to grade, so all the pitching intrigue here is Gausman's, and his 5.91 pNERD (comfortably above today's 5.85 average) is built on a strong xFIP- and a healthy swinging-strike rate, with some positive regression luck baked in too. Both offenses have been miserable lately — the Cardinals are an offensive mess right now, with a team-wide .693 OPS near the bottom of the league — which shows up in Toronto's tNERD of just 2.49, dragged down by poor barrel rate and baserunning. St. Louis's 5.55 tNERD is buoyed mostly by youth and payroll efficiency rather than actual hitting. Add it up and you get a 9.47 gNERD, below the historical median and today's average — watchable mainly for the debut storyline, not the on-field talent.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

St. Louis Cardinals

Toronto Blue Jays

Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

A rebuilding Athletics club playing out the string against a Tigers team riding some late summer momentum makes for modest appointment viewing, elevated mostly by two shaky starters trying to find their footing. Framber Valdez, brought to Detroit on a three-year, $115 million deal, has scuffled all year — his ERA is the highest since his second season with Houston in 2019 — and his pNERD of 3.11 reflects that inconsistency rather than the ace stuff he flashed in Houston. Jack Perkins, meanwhile, has had a rough transition from bullpen arm to starter, with a tidy FIP as a reliever suggesting maybe the starting gig isn't the best use of his talents. Statistically he still grades out with a 6.49 pNERD thanks to plus velocity and a hefty luck factor, hinting his results should improve. On the team side, Detroit's respectable 4.73 tNERD outpaces Oakland's 2.70, weighed down by poor fielding, baserunning, and bullpen work, though a big positive luck value suggests the A's have been playing worse than their results. Overall gNERD of 8.52 sits below both the historical and today's averages — watchable, but not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Athletics

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

Jack Perkins, Athletics

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Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

Two last-place teams, a struggling Coors Field bullpen with actual negative bWAR quality, and pitchers both running ERAs north of 4.8 make this one for completionists and Coors-Field-chaos enthusiasts only. Kansas City (46-65) and Colorado (43-67) are both well out of contention, and the gNERD score of 5.07 sits below the historical average of roughly 10 and well under today's slate average of 11.35. Luinder Avila, back up from Triple-A and enjoying his best stretch as a starter, faces a Rockies lineup that hasn't seen him yet this year, though "they aren't catching him at a great time" since July was his best month as a starter this season. Feltner counters, but July has been rough for him, having allowed 13 runs through 7.1 innings over his last two starts. Both arms carry pNERD scores barely above 3, unremarkable across the league. The real drag here is Kansas City's bullpen, whose runs-saved figure is nearly two and a half standard deviations worse than average, and Colorado's punchless, error-prone offense and defense combine for one of the lowest team NERD marks so far this season. Watch only if you enjoy sludge at altitude.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Colorado Rockies

Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

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