MLB: What to watch on August 2, 2026

• 02 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels, 12:15p

Summary

This is the day's marquee pitching matchup, and it's not particularly close. Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound fresh off a start where he struck out the first seven Rockies batters to set a Brewers franchise record, then retired the first 14 hitters he faced before a two-out homer in the fifth, and he's doing it while setting a pitch-tracking-era record by throwing all 66 of his fastballs at least 100 mph. His 15.66 pNERD is comfortably the best of any pitcher in today's slate, built on elite whiff rates, a sub-50 xFIP-, and velocity that sits near the top of the league — this is a legitimate NL Cy Young caliber arm. Walbert Ureña isn't chopped liver either, pairing a mid-90s-plus fastball with a 6.46 pNERD, though he leans on that heater more than most (over half his pitches) and his strikeout rate looks a bit lucky. On the team side, Milwaukee's 9.42 tNERD (young, athletic, good bullpen) dwarfs a last-place Angels club (1.19 tNERD) currently on a five-game skid with the majors' worst record. Historically this game's 16.37 gNERD ranks near the top of the distribution — well above today's 11.26 average — making it the pick of the day almost entirely on Misiorowski's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Angels

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:20p

Summary

A rookie sensation with a clean fastball meets a homer-prone but swing-and-miss righty in a Dodger Stadium series finale that's more compelling than the standings gap suggests. Boston's Jake Bennett, a 6-foot-6 southpaw acquired from the Nationals, has emerged in a big way after posting a 1.60 ERA at Triple-A before getting the call, and he's allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last eight starts — his pNERD of 7.02 reflects strong control and a favorable age curve for a rookie still finding his ceiling. Emmet Sheehan counters with real strikeout stuff (a 27.4% K% this year, placing in the 88th percentile) but has been homer-prone all year, and his positive luck component suggests his ugly ERA should trend better than his surface numbers indicate. The Dodgers' offense is the headline attraction here, ranking near the top of MLB in several categories and pushing their tNERD to 9.49 — comfortably above today's average — while the lineup ranks first in the majors in batting average at .262. Add in Boston's playoff urgency against a Dodgers club coasting toward October, and this 14.47 gNERD sits well above both the historical and today's averages, making it one of the day's better watches.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Dodgers

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

A series finale at Wrigley with a real pitching mismatch and a Cubs bullpen running on fumes — this one's worth your afternoon. Gerrit Cole (pNERD 7.00) brings a tidy 3.57 xFIP-supported line and a 96.9 mph fastball, though he's still building back innings after an arm injury that cost him a couple months. Colin Rea (pNERD 2.36) has been serviceable in volume but comes with home/road platoon-level splits, and Chicago's relief corps is genuinely shorthanded — seven relievers unavailable — which matters if Rea runs into trouble early. The Cubs (tNERD 9.08) counter with standout fielding and offense, the Yankees bullpen has a sterling 2.98 ERA that is tied for the best in MLB, with David Bednar excellent as closer, giving New York (tNERD 8.22) length advantage late. It's the rubber match of the series, with Chicago evening things Saturday on a Pete Crow-Armstrong go-ahead triple. Combined gNERD of 13.33 sits comfortably above the historical average and near today's higher end — a legitimately watchable one, injury replacements and all.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

New York Yankees

Chicago Cubs

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Gavin Williams is the reason to tune in here, and Arizona's red-hot bats give him something to actually beat. Cleveland's righty is running a 69 xFIP-, sitting 97 with plus swing-and-miss stuff, and has thrown at least 97 pitches in three of his last four starts and works on normal rest with no apparent workload restriction. His 12.03 pNERD is comfortably above today's average and near the top of the historical distribution, making him the headline act. Merrill Kelly is the opposite story — his recent results have outpaced his process, with a sparkling ERA in July undercut by a 7.17 xERA and .398 xwOBA — and his 1.87 pNERD reflects that shakiness. Arizona brings the juice, though: since the break they're a National League-best 13-5, leading the majors with 106 runs scored and a +33 run differential, with catchers James McCann and Gabriel Moreno combining to bat .393 over that stretch. Cleveland's tNERD edge (7.21 to 4.71) comes mostly from youth and payroll thrift rather than thump. At a gNERD of 12.90, this sits above both the historical and today's averages — worth watching mainly for Williams doing Williams things against a lineup that's actually been mashing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Cleveland Guardians

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

The Marlins bring the fireworks here, riding a two-game winning streak and Sandy Alcantara's return trip to relevance, while the Mets counter with... whatever Robert Stock can offer on a given day. At 12.64, this game sits comfortably above the historic median and roughly average among today's slate, driven almost entirely by Miami's tNERD of 9.67 — a mark built on speed (elite baserunning value) and a young, cheap roster that's overperforming its luck number by a wide margin, historically a green flag for regression toward more scoring, not less. Miami enters Citi Field carrying genuine momentum, sitting alive in the wild card conversation, and having won two straight. Otto Lopez is hitting .322 and Xavier Edwards is hitting .288 with 18 stolen bases, giving the Marlins lineup real juice. Alcantara's velocity (97.4 mph) still ticks positive on his pNERD despite modest strikeout marks. The Mets, limping at 47-65, offer little pitching intrigue — Stock's pNERD of zero reflects a total absence of reliable data, so temper expectations there.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Robert Stock, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 10:35a

Summary

The Nationals' bats and Atlanta's shaky pitching depth make this one worth flipping to, even if neither team is chasing October glory. Washington enters having built the majors' most prolific home-run attack—the Nationals lead all of Major League Baseball with 164 home runs on the season, nine more than any other team, with James Wood having reached 30 home runs and 100 runs scored, and CJ Abrams leading the club with 117 hits and 85 RBI. That thump shows up in the tNERD gap: Washington's 9.48 crushes Atlanta's 6.21, fueled by strong batting and baserunning marks, though a brutal bullpen (-24.8 runs) keeps them from truly dominating. Atlanta counters as the more balanced club, having been one of baseball's most consistent teams over the past two weeks, winning seven of their last ten and riding a four-game winning streak. On the mound, Cade Cavalli's 7.02 pNERD stands out—strong velocity (96.6 mph) and a sharp xFIP- of 81 make him the pitcher to watch, even if his molasses-slow pace docks him a bit. JR Ritchie, by contrast, grades out modestly at 2.52, hurt by shaky strike-throwing. Web searches turned up no specific injury or debut storylines for either starter. At 12.62, this gNERD sits solidly above the historical average and roughly in the middle of today's slate—a decent, not essential, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

Chase Burns is doing something historic, and even if the Reds' offense is limp, watching him chase down a nearly century-old franchise record makes this worth a look. Burns enters riding an 11-game winning streak, making his 21st start of 2026 with 11 straight winning decisions, matching Tom Browning's 1985 mark, and a win would give him the most consecutive wins since Brooks Lawrence's 13-decision run in 1956. His pNERD of 9.66 — comfortably above today's 5.65 average — reflects a genuine top-shelf arsenal: a 97.7 mph four-seamer paired with a 90.3 mph slider carrying a 49.4% whiff rate. Keller is the sturdier but less flashy complement, hoping to recapture the good vibes from his last outing against Cincinnati after struggling in July; his 3.29 pNERD is unremarkable, dragged down by shaky whiff and command numbers. Team NERD tells a lopsided story too — Pittsburgh's 7.27 (fueled by strong baserunning and batting runs) dwarfs Cincinnati's 4.86, whose offense and bullpen both grade out as weak spots, though positive team luck suggests the Reds have overachieved. Overall gNERD of 12.54 sits solidly above the historical median, making this an above-average watch, anchored almost entirely by Burns' star turn.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

San Diego's bullpen and playoff stakes make this one worth a look, even if the Giants side of the roster is mostly playing out the string. The Padres are scrapping for a wild-card spot — San Diego sits 12 games back in the NL West but is fighting for wild card position with essentially every game carrying weight, on the bubble with the Phillies — while San Francisco arrives limping, a dismal 21-36 on the road, though they did just hand San Diego a loss in this series before Jake Cronenworth singled in Xander Bogaerts with two outs in the ninth to beat the Giants 6-5 in the series' signature moment. San Diego's 9.32 tNERD is comfortably above average today, propped up almost entirely by an excellent bullpen and strong fielding, while the Giants' 4.65 mark is dragged down by shaky baserunning and relief work — though their bats are due some positive regression given a favorable luck reading. On the mound, Landen Roupp's strong peripherals (xFIP- 88) outshine his pedestrian ERA and give him the better pNERD, 6.11 to Michael King's 3.23, making this a solidly average-to-good watch on today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

A solid start-pitcher mismatch with real intrigue on both sides, even if neither team's offense is scorching hot right now. Zack Wheeler carries a 9.15 pNERD - comfortably above average for today's slate - built on elite peripherals, though his last time out was genuinely alarming: he allowed five runs on six hits, one walk and two home runs and struck out six in three innings in an 8-7 walk-off loss to the Marlins, his shortest start since April 17, 2022. He's since thrown a clean bullpen and is expected back to form. Kyle Bradish, by contrast, is more middling (2.81 pNERD), hurt mainly by a slow pace and a walk rate that's kept traffic on the bases all year. The Orioles are shorthanded, with Rutschman, Basallo, and Blaze Alexander banged up, while the Phillies' offense has gone quiet lately despite a solid batting-runs/baserunning profile. Add in some late-July trade-deadline tension - this weekend set could be the final performance for many players in their current jersey - and there's more subplot here than the 11.21 gNERD (right around today's middle) suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Baltimore Orioles

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:40a

Summary

A modestly above-average matchup carried almost entirely by Griffin Jax, who's quietly been one of the better relievers-turned-starters roles in baseball this year. Jax brings a 7.51 pNERD—comfortably above the day's average of 5.65—built on a strong xFIP- of 84 and a swinging-strike rate that ranks well above league norm; on the mound this season he's carrying a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 28 appearances and 17 starts, missing bats at a 26 percent strikeout rate while limiting free passes to just 8.5 percent. Anthony Kay, by contrast, offers little intrigue at 1.55 pNERD, and reports note a 4.25 ERA and 1.360 WHIP over 103.2 innings means he's been hittable, particularly against Junior Caminero, who's swatted 30 homers this year. The team NERD gap favors Chicago's younger, scrappier roster (8.26 to 4.75), though Tampa's own hitting includes Junior Caminero (.916 OPS, 30 HR) and Yandy Diaz (.304 AVG, .843 OPS). Overall gNERD of 11.03 sits just above the historical median—watchable mostly for Jax's start, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

A rubber match between two teams stuck in .500 purgatory, but the pitching matchup elevates this above the standings. Minnesota (56-56) and Seattle (54-58) are both hovering around break-even, playing out the string of what's shaping up as a forgettable summer, and neither offense inspires much confidence - both tNERD scores sit in the bottom half of what we've seen this season, weighed down by shaky defense on both sides (Seattle's outfield/infield combo has been especially leaky). Byron Buxton is on the injured list with a hip issue, which opens the door for others in the Minnesota lineup to carry more weight. The reason to tune in is the mound: George Kirby brings a 8.20 pNERD, built on plus command (elite strike rate) and mid-90s heat, while Taj Bradley isn't far behind at 6.97, pairing a 97 mph fastball with a tidy xFIP-. Bradley enters at 9-4 with 139 strikeouts, Kirby at 8-9 with 107, and it's fair to expect both to outpitch those surface won-loss records. Overall gNERD of 10.44 lands almost exactly at the historical median - a decent, not thrilling, way to spend an afternoon, buoyed almost entirely by two arms worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Minnesota Twins

Seattle Mariners

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

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Detroit Tigers @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

Detroit's steamrolled Oakland-in-Sacramento all season, and a rookie lefty with real swing-and-miss stuff gives this one more juice than the standings suggest. The Tigers are 4-0 against the Athletics in the 2026 season and are looking to seal a sweep in Sacramento as they roll into Sutter Health Park. Detroit's tNERD (4.58) beats a middling A's mark (2.86) that's dragged down by shaky fielding and bullpen work, though Oakland's brutal broadcaster ratings barely register since they're floored at zero. The pitching matchup, though, is the real draw: 23-year-old Gage Jump posts the day's better pNERD (7.11) on a lively fastball and low xFIP-, and he's coming off one of his better outings of the summer, throwing six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against Boston in his 13th career start. Keider Montero (pNERD 3.86) is trying to erase a rough last time out, when he served up six runs on nine hits over 4⅓ innings in an 8-5 loss to Baltimore. With a gNERD of 9.21, sitting below today's 11.26 average, this is a watchable but not must-see afternoon — worth tuning in mainly for Jump's emergence.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Athletics

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

Gage Jump, Athletics

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

A last-place Rangers team gasping for signs of life visits an Astros club riding a nine-of-ten hot streak, and the gNERD math says this is a fine but unspectacular way to spend an afternoon. Houston has surged into first place while Texas has been in freefall — Houston has won nine of its last ten games, a run that has pushed the Astros into first place and left Texas scrambling to stop a four-game skid — including a Friday blowout and a follow-up loss where they managed just four runs. The Rangers' 5.95 tNERD outpaces Houston's middling 3.43, thanks largely to Texas's bullpen ERA (4.32) actually being better than Houston's (4.66), and a hefty positive luck score suggesting Texas has been underperforming and could be due for better results. On the mound, 26-year-old Kumar Rocker (pNERD 4.03) brings youth and a reshaped slider-heavy approach, while Peter Lambert (pNERD 2.79) has quietly been a solid, unspectacular innings-eater. Nothing here screams must-watch — gNERD of 8.09 sits below both the historic average and today's slate — but a desperate Rangers team trying to avoid a sweep against a surging division leader anchored by Yordan Alvarez gives it some juice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Houston Astros

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

A last-place tilt at altitude that's more theoretical than thrilling, though Coors Field could still turn it into a track meet. Both clubs are miles out of any race — Kansas City has dropped three straight while Colorado has quietly won two in a row, and the Rockies' 44th win already eclipsed the franchise's total from all of last year with games still to play. Kyle Freeland carries the better pNERD (5.47) thanks to strong strike-throwing, even though his surface numbers have been rough this year — he's 2-10 with a 7.34 ERA, though he has struck out 85 batters, and his underlying xFIP- of 99 suggests he's been unlucky. Seth Lugo, at 36, brings a glacial pace but modest swing-and-miss stuff, netting a lower 3.52 pNERD. Team-wise, this is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup: Colorado's bat, barrel rate, baserunning and fielding are all in the red, while Kansas City's bullpen (-2.56) is one of the worst components in the whole sample. With a gNERD of 6.50 — well below today's 11.26 average — this one's mostly for masochists and Coors Field truthers hoping gravity does the entertaining.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Colorado Rockies

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

Not a game worth clearing your schedule for, but there's a genuine curiosity here: watching a future Hall of Famer implode in real time. Max Scherzer, 41, is having what may be the worst season of his career — a 9.49 ERA over 24.2 innings, a 1.8243 WHIP, and 9 home runs allowed, with his WAR sitting at -0.95. His pNERD of -1.77 (well below today's average of 5.65) reflects an xFIP- north of 149, meaning even the peripherals agree he's cooked, though he does carry a small positive luck component suggesting he's actually underperforming slightly. He's also been on a limited pitch count recently, not throwing more than 82 pitches in any of his last five starts, following his return from back spasms. Opposite him, Liberatore's modest 5.73 pNERD is buoyed almost entirely by a big luck bump, though he's also human — his last outing saw the Cubs rack up eight hits off him, including a home run. Neither team's tNERD impresses (Toronto's 2.40 is well below average, weighed down by weak barrel and baserunning marks), and the overall gNERD of 5.89 sits below both the historical and today's medians. Watch only if you enjoy schadenfreude.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

St. Louis Cardinals

Toronto Blue Jays

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

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  MLB: What to watch on August 1, 2026