MLB: What to watch on August 3, 2026

• 03 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

This one has real juice: two 60-plus-win rivals, elite defenses, and a Cubs offense trying to snap out of a funk against a Dodgers club nursing a bruised ego after getting swept by Boston. The gNERD of 14.45 sits well above both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate (10.80), driven almost entirely by two outstanding team profiles — Dodgers (9.41) and Cubs (9.31) both rank near the top of the historic tNERD distribution, fueled by strong batting runs and, in the Cubs' case, an absurd fielding-runs mark of 55.6. The Dodgers arrive looking to reset after Dave Roberts admitted "They outplayed us" in a series where Boston outscored Los Angeles 20-10 over the three games, costing them the best record in baseball. Matthew Boyd (5.19 pNERD, solid strike-throwing and respectable xFIP-) takes the mound for Chicago, while the Dodgers' listed TBD starter is actually expected to be Justin Wrobleski, who enters with a 2.88 ERA over 112.2 IP despite peripherals suggesting he's been pretty lucky this year. Add in a Cubs bullpen that's shaky and a Dodgers pen anchored by a bounced-back Tanner Scott, and this is a legitimately watchable ballgame.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Cam Schlittler's electric arm makes this one worth catching, even if the Cardinals side of the ledger looks bleak. This is Schlittler's Cy Young-caliber season on display — the right-hander carries a 2.04 ERA and has struck out 165 batters this season, backed by a blistering four-seam fastball that sits at 97.9 mph and generates a 30.4% whiff rate with a .234 xwOBA against. His pNERD of 10.54 is comfortably above today's average and sits near the top of the historical distribution, fueled by elite strikeout stuff and top-shelf velocity. McGreevy, by contrast, is scuffling badly — his last outing saw him come against the Cubs on July 28, one of the roughest starts of his season, lasting only 1⅔ innings while allowing seven earned runs — and his 3.67 pNERD reflects thin whiff and strike-rate numbers. The Yankees' 8.16 tNERD, boosted by strong barrel rate and baserunning marks, dwarfs a punchless Cardinals lineup dealing with a slump; St. Louis has fallen under .500 with seven losses in their last 10 games and sits four games out of the final wild card spot. New York is banged up too, with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Carlos Rodón all on the injured list, but that hardly dents this gNERD of 13.82, which lands well above both the historical and today's averages — mostly on the strength of one dominant arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Yankees

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Milwaukee's authentic run at the NL Central crown makes this one worth a look, even if neither starter will make anyone forget about aces. The Brewers own the best record in baseball at 69-42, having taken firm control of the division since a Jacob Misiorowski gem back in May, while the Pirates limp in at 56-57 after dropping seven of ten, including a 10-2 beatdown in Cincinnati over the weekend. That standings gap belies a fun quirk: the Pirates have won five of the last six meetings between these clubs, and Oneil Cruz remains the swing-game bat capable of erasing Milwaukee's edge on his own. Bubba Chandler brings a 98.5 mph heater but pairs it with shaky command that's kept his walk totals climbing, while Brandon Sproat gets a positive luck bump after posting better peripherals than his ERA suggests. Team-wise, the Brewers' 9.18 tNERD is elite - built on baserunning, bullpen depth, and a young roster - while Pittsburgh's 7.05 isn't far behind. The 13.44 gNERD sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, making this a solid watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

The Nationals bring the far better team here, and Aaron Nola's ongoing struggles make Philadelphia's half of this one particularly watchable for the wrong reasons. Washington's 9.49 tNERD is comfortably the best team score on the board, fueled by a young, athletic lineup that mashes barrels and runs the bases well, though a shaky bullpen and modest payroll drag it back down some. Philadelphia counters with solid baserunning and a deep bullpen, but a lineup that simply isn't hitting drags its tNERD to a middling 5.60 — not helped by the fact that Philadelphia is just 26th in MLB in wRC+, 23rd in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 16th in runs scored in 2026. On the mound, Nola brings a full accounting of his rough season — a 5.61 ERA and the Phillies have lost six consecutive starts by Nola — while Washington counters with lefty Andrew Alvarez, a promising 27-year-old who's quietly been Washington's Minor League Pitcher of the Year and now looks solid in the majors, edging Nola on the pNERD leaderboard. With gNERD at 13.12, well above the historical average and near today's top mark, this is one of the day's better bets.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

A modestly watchable game elevated mainly by Logan Webb doing Logan Webb things, with a side of trade-deadline theater. San Francisco's ace takes the mound with the Astros reportedly checking in on him ahead of Monday's deadline, which adds a bit of will-this-be-his-last-start-here intrigue even if you shouldn't expect a trade mid-game. Webb's pNERD of 5.75 is comfortably above average, built mostly on a strong xFIP- (88) that suggests his 3.93 ERA is if anything a touch unlucky. Across the mound, Cal Quantrill is filed as TBD in our data (pNERD 0.00) simply because we lack the numbers, not because he's bad — he's been a steady 4-3, 3.84 ERA presence for a Rangers team that's been sneaky productive on offense (tNERD 5.74, boosted by real batting runs and a bullpen that's outperforming). Both clubs arrive banged up — Texas swept in Houston, San Francisco dropping two of three in San Diego — and both are getting better underlying results than their fortunes suggest, per the healthy positive luck figures for each team. Overall gNERD of 10.64 sits right around today's average: nothing to reroute your evening for, but a perfectly reasonable background game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Texas Rangers

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Both teams are hovering around the fringes of the NL wild card race, and this Chase Field opener has actual stakes attached to it even if the pitching matchup itself is fairly middle-of-the-road. Arizona has been the league's hottest team since the All-Star break, and the Diamondbacks have the best record in the National League since July 9 and lead the major leagues with 118 runs, tied with Philadelphia for the final two NL wild-card spots. San Diego counters with a lineup that's been hot, winning eight of ten, though that production comes even without Taylor and Andujar, who are both on the IL. The pitching matchup is fine but unspectacular — both King and Pfaadt post nearly identical, middling pNERD scores (3.24 and 3.34), driven mostly by underwhelming strikeout stuff dragging down otherwise passable xFIP marks. King has had success against Arizona this year, going 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in five July starts, and giving up a combined three runs in 12 innings in a win and a no-decision against Arizona this season. Padres bullpen and defense numbers are strong enough to nudge the gNERD (10.29) slightly above the historical average, roughly matching today's slate — watchable for the standings drama more than the arms on the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael King, San Diego Padres

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This one's a mismatch masquerading as a Coors Field track meet, and the numbers back up the letdown. The Rays sit atop the AL East at 65-46 while the last-place Rockies (45-67) are on a three-game home winning streak fueled by an offensive explosion against Kansas City, but that hot streak is built on facing far worse pitching than Ian Seymour. Seymour's 6.34 pNERD is comfortably above average, powered by strong swinging-strike and strike-rate marks that suggest more swing-and-miss than his numbers might imply. Lorenzen, by contrast, owns one of the roughest lines among qualified starters and a bullpen crippled by four relievers on the IL behind him, and his 111 xFIP- drags his pNERD down to 2.73. Colorado's 0.93 tNERD is near the bottom of the season's range, a product of poor batting and barrel numbers that even Coors Field's thin air hasn't been able to mask. Tampa Bay's own tNERD (4.88) is unspectacular but buoyed by a positive luck score, meaning it's actually underperforming its skill level. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 7.44, below both the historic and today's averages — watchable mostly for Seymour, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Colorado Rockies

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Astros have won nine of their last ten and are surging back into the AL West race, while the Blue Jays have shipped out veterans at the deadline and are playing out the string — that alone tells you which team is more fun to watch right now. This one's near the bottom of the barrel on watchability, and the numbers back it up: a 3.18 gNERD sits well below the historical average of 10.11 and today's slate average of 10.80, with both offenses and both starters dragging the score down. Bieber, since being dealt to Toronto, has been a shell of his Cy Young self, sporting an ugly xFIP- of 124 with shaky command driving his negative pNERD components; Javier is even rougher, still working back from Tommy John surgery with a bloated xFIP- of 140 and diminished bat-missing stuff, though both pitchers do carry some positive "luck," suggesting their actual results have been worse than even their poor peripherals indicate — a low bar to clear. Houston's lineup, paced by Yordan Alvarez and a scorching Jeremy Peña, gives this game its only real juice; otherwise, this is a placeholder outing best skipped for something sharper on the slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

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