MLB: What to watch on August 4, 2026

• 04 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

The Brewers own a massive division lead but the Pirates have quietly been their kryptonite lately, and this game pairs two of the more electric young arms in the league. Jared Jones just came back from a two-month injured-list stint and has rediscovered his stuff in July, posting a 2.00 ERA over five starts, and his velocity (98.5 mph average, a huge z-score outlier) and elite xFIP- back it up—hence a hearty 9.82 pNERD. Across from him, Logan Henderson has been arguably better on the ledger sheet, running a minuscule 70 xFIP- with a strong strikeout rate that lands him at 9.78 pNERD, continuing an 8-1 career run that includes a scoreless outing against the Giants his last time out. On the team side, Milwaukee's 9.17 tNERD is buoyed by a deep, young roster with strong baserunning and bullpen numbers, while Pittsburgh's 6.93 isn't far behind thanks to solid batting and baserunning of their own—fitting, given they've won four straight against the Brewers, including Monday's 4-3 series-opening upset. Add it up and you get a 17.85 gNERD, comfortably above both the historical and today's averages—this one's worth your evening.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

Skubal traded to the Dodgers, making his debut against a lineup that isn't even his old team — that's the headline here, and it's a legitimately fun watch. This is Tarik Skubal's first start as a Dodger, coming to Wrigley just days after L.A. sent a package to Detroit to get him, and his 12.51 pNERD says the hype is earned. His shiny surface stats undersell it: Skubal carries a 31.0% strikeout rate with just a 3.7% walk rate this season, and his 0.910 WHIP ranks among the best in baseball, and his swinging-strike and strike-rate z-scores are near the top of the league, backed by a stingy xFIP-. He's also been on a run before the trade — in his past six outings, Skubal has given up only eight earned runs in 37 innings for an ERA of 1.95 — so this isn't just name value. Assad is a solid, unspectacular caretaker in the back half of the rotation with a low swinging-strike rate that drags his pNERD to a modest 2.75, and the Cubs are missing several top arms this series, which only widens the pitching gap. Both offenses carry real thump, though: the Dodgers' bat-heavy, deep lineup and a Cubs defense with an outstanding fielding number both push their tNERDs near 9.3, among the best pairings you'll see today or in the wider dataset, and Wrigley Field adds ambiance to a gNERD score (16.90) that ranks near the top of the pack.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

Go back to top of page

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Good, this gives me enough to work with. Let me write the summary.

This series opener slugfest sequel has real upside: the Yankees are chasing a bounce-back after Monday's wild 13-7 loss where Alec Burleson hit three homers off them, and Tuesday brings a legitimately compelling pitching matchup to boot. Ryan Weathers, the Yankees' lefty, owns the better peripherals here — his 79 xFIP- and 8.36 pNERD suggest he's pitching better than his 3.99 ERA lets on, and he's actually been a bit unlucky, so there's more in the tank than the raw numbers show. Hunter Dobbins, back from an ACL tear that ended his Red Sox tenure and now starting for St. Louis after the offseason trade for Willson Contreras, brings a solid 6.00 pNERD and a lively 95-plus mph fastball. New York's lineup is banged up — Aaron Judge (rib), Giancarlo Stanton (leg), and Cody Bellinger (leg) are all out — but the Yankees still post an 8.07 tNERD thanks to elite barrel rates and a deep bullpen, comfortably above both the historic and today's-game averages. Add in a Cardinals offense that just dropped 13 runs on this same pitching staff, and the 13.95 gNERD checks out: this one lands well above the historic median and near the top of today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Yankees

Hunter Dobbins, St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Good enough info to write the summary.

Jesús Luzardo brings swing-and-miss stuff and a Nationals lineup that's mashing everything not named Luzardo, making this the rare Nats-Phillies game worth clearing your schedule for. Luzardo carries a strikeout rate near 29% and a tidy 3.57 ERA into the outing, though he's looking to bounce back from allowing six runs in 6.1 innings to the Marlins last time out, after allowing just eight earned runs in 49.1 innings across his previous eight starts. His pNERD of 10.58 backs that up — well above the 95th percentile for today's games — thanks to a strong xFIP-, plush velocity, and a bit of positive regression coming his way. Littell, by contrast, is scuffling for a Washington rotation gutted by injuries; the Nationals have DJ Herz, Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Ken Waldichuk, and Connelly Early all on the injured list, leaving the club relying heavily on Littell despite his 5.94 FIP and negative WAR. That mismatch drags the pitching side down, but Washington's offense — young, athletic, and running wild on the bases — pushes the Nationals' tNERD to 9.24, comfortably above the historic 95th percentile. Philadelphia's bullpen depth and broadcast ratings add just enough polish to make the 13.19 gNERD a solidly above-average watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Surprising things brewing in Chicago: the White Sox sit atop the AL Central by three games and just added Luis Castillo at the deadline, while the Red Sox went the other direction, spending big to land catcher Adley Rutschman (though he's currently shelved with wrist inflammation). Watch for a lineup boasting Colson Montgomery's power numbers against a Sandoval who has been shaky historically versus Chicago.

Worth a look mostly for the standings drama, not the pitching matchup. The White Sox (8.37 tNERD) bring real thump and a deep bullpen while somehow running one of the game's youngest, cheapest rosters — a nice underdog profile for a team clinging to a division lead. Boston's tNERD (5.86) is more modest, buoyed by strong glovework and relief work but dragged by so-so contact quality. On the mound, Davis Martin's strong underlying numbers (3.11 FIP, 0.54 HR/9) make him more interesting than his recent results suggest, even as backs pages call him homer-prone. Patrick Sandoval, still building back innings and grading out with essentially no track record yet in our pNERD model, is the wildcard — he's 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox, including a 2-1 win in his Red Sox debut on July 9. Overall, a 12.30 gNERD lands comfortably above the historical average, thanks more to the teams than the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Chicago White Sox

Boston Red Sox

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

I now have enough for a solid summary.

Miami's low-payroll, high-baserunning Marlins bring some genuine juice into Truist Park, even if Vegas thinks this is a laugher waiting to happen. The Braves are the far bigger name here, but the Marlins actually carry the better tNERD (9.82 to 6.31), fueled by a recovery from a franchise-record 12-game losing streak to win six of seven, including three straight against the New York Mets, plus a young, cheap roster that's been running better than its underlying luck number suggests. Atlanta counters with its own hot streak — riding a five-game winning streak after going 12-5 since the All-Star break, including a four-game weekend sweep over the Washington Nationals — but its tNERD gets docked for negative batted-luck and an older, pricier roster that doesn't get bonus points here. On the mound, Ryan Gusto (pNERD 5.12) is scuffling on the surface — 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP — but his underlying numbers and tough luck number suggest better days ahead. Grant Holmes (pNERD 2.99) is the steadier stat-line arm at 6-4, 3.88 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, though he gave up a season-high three home runs in his last outing against the Nationals. The 12.13 gNERD lands a bit above the historical average, mostly on the strength of Miami's team profile rather than a marquee pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

Go back to top of page

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Sean Manaea takes the mound for a Mets team stuck deep in the NL East cellar—a matchup between a struggling road club and a Cleveland team that just made trade-deadline reinforcements, though nothing here screams must-watch. The Mets have lost three of their last four and lost three in a row and four of their last five after winning three straight, scoring just four runs in their last three games, while Cleveland has struggled recently as well, but got some reinforcements at the trade deadline on Monday. Manaea has been trending the right way, though: after a rough start to July, he finished strong allowing three runs in 12 innings over his last two starts, and his pNERD of 5.18 reflects an average-ish profile boosted by a slow pace and some positive regression luck. Cantillo, meanwhile, is the steadier arm of the two—his most recent start was four shutout innings against Cincinnati, a bounce-back from two rough outings that saw him give up 15 hits and nine runs over 8.2 innings—and his 5.43 pNERD edges Manaea's slightly on the back of a strong swinging-strike rate. Cleveland's tNERD (7.27) comfortably outpaces the Mets' (4.73), thanks to a young, cheap roster that grades out well on baserunning and payroll efficiency. The 11.30 gNERD lands almost exactly at today's average, so treat this as a solid midweek option rather than a can't-miss.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

New York Mets

Cleveland Guardians

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

This one's mostly a showcase for MacKenzie Gore, since the Giants side of the roster is running on fumes after a deadline sell-off. Gore brings real stuff to the mound — mid-90s velocity, a healthy whiff rate, and an xFIP- of 93 that suggests he's been pitching better than his results, with some positive regression likely coming given his underperforming luck number. Opposite him is Blade Tidwell, who makes his first start of the season for San Francisco, so there's zero pNERD data to lean on and plenty of uncertainty about what shows up. The Giants, at 47-65, have sold at the deadline and effectively conceded that this is not their year, though the offense has picked up lately, while Texas has actually been scuffling and getting shut out. Both clubs carry outsized positive luck scores, meaning the underlying numbers say better days are ahead for each. The gNERD of 11.04 sits a tick above the historical average and roughly in the middle of today's slate — watchable mainly for Gore, less so for anything resembling playoff stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Texas Rangers

Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

This one's got postseason stakes but not much pitching artistry — bring your patience for the strike zone, not your appreciation for dominant arms. Both clubs enter hot: Arizona has ridden a stretch of good form into a slim NL wild-card lead, while San Diego arrives having won eight of its last ten and fresh off acquiring Mize and Gage Workman from Detroit in exchange for Kash Mayfield and Jackson Wolf at the deadline. The Padres' tNERD (8.97) is the story on paper — elite bullpen, strong fielding and baserunning, and a broadcast crew good enough to make the games watchable even when the offense stalls, which it has (batting runs solidly negative). Arizona's tNERD (4.77) leans on the glove and legs rather than the bat, with Ketel Marte doing the heavy lifting. On the mound, neither arm inspires: Vásquez owns a bloated xFIP- and modest whiff rate, while Rodriguez, despite a 10-3 record with a low-2.00s ERA and eight scoreless innings in his last outing, grades out barely better by the metrics that matter here. A middling gNERD (9.38) fits — divisional intrigue, unremarkable arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

I have enough to write the summary now.

A middling matchup that's more about playoff desperation than star power, with Emerson Hancock the lone bright spot. Both clubs are treading water around .500, and Detroit still hasn't named a starter, which tells you something about how thin this pitching matchup is on paper.

Hancock owns a respectable pNERD of 5.95, boosted by a strong xFIP- of 92 and mid-90s velocity befitting a former top prospect finally looking the part Emerson Hancock enters with a 6-5 record, 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts. His mystery counterpart contributes a flat zero, dragging the pitching side of this game down considerably. On the lineup side, neither team impresses: Detroit's tNERD of 4.59 and Seattle's 3.19 are both below-average, weighed down badly by shaky gloves — Seattle sits 55-58 at home with a 32-24 record, while Detroit is 54-58 overall, and Detroit sits 5.5 games back in its division race, Seattle 2.5 back, giving this matchup weight beyond two clubs hovering near .500. The resulting 9.37 gNERD lands below today's 11.05 average — watchable if it's on, skippable if you've got options.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

Go back to top of page

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

A rookie flamethrower against a fading offense — not a marquee matchup, but Yesavage's stuff is worth a peek even in a game that otherwise skews mediocre. Toronto limps into Houston at 52-60, and while Toronto arrives having gone 6-4 over its last 10, a stretch that shows some life in a team that has struggled to stay afloat in the AL East, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is listed as day-to-day with a hamstring issue, which adds a layer of uncertainty to Toronto's offensive plans. Meanwhile Houston has been one of baseball's hottest teams over the past two-plus months, and it shows in the tNERD gap (3.97 vs Toronto's 2.29) — mostly built on Houston's batting runs and Toronto's alarmingly low barrel rate. The real reason to tune in is Yesavage: a 22-year-old righty with a 5.12 pNERD driven almost entirely by youth and a strong swinging-strike rate, still working out his command (Strike% below average). Wesneski, on the other end, has no meaningful data to grade — his 4.76 ERA and modest track record leave him as an unknown. Overall gNERD of 8.19 sits below the historical average, making this a watch-if-bored rather than must-see affair.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

Hayden Wesneski, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

A trade-deadline reunion with a bat-flip forecast: Freddy Peralta makes his Rays debut at Coors Field, a launching pad that should suit exactly nobody's ERA. Peralta, dealt from the Mets after leading the NL in wins last year with the Brewers, arrives with an ugly-looking 4.99 mark that's more mirage than truth — his underlying peripherals (and a positive luck score) suggest better days ahead, even if his strike-throwing has lagged lately. Opposite him is Colorado rookie Gabriel Hughes, making just his fifth big-league start; his 5.46 pNERD actually edges Peralta's, built on strong early strikeout-to-walk feel and rookie youth, though it comes with ugly luck (-26) that hasn't gone his way. The Rays already torched Colorado's pitching 13-9 in the series opener, with Caminero going deep twice, and Tampa's tNERD (4.99) reflects a genuinely above-average, well-rounded roster. Colorado's tNERD (0.81) is near the bottom of today's slate, dragged down by weak contact quality and defense. Overall gNERD (7.91) sits below the historical average, but Coors Field always adds unpredictability, and a fresh-start Peralta start is worth a curious glance.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Colorado Rockies

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Bad teams, mildly interesting return-from-injury storyline, and a hitter-friendly park keep this one from being a total dud, but nobody's circling this on their calendar. J.T. Ginn returns from the injured list after a blister on his throwing hand, and while his mid-3s ERA before the layoff suggests real talent, a starter making his first appearance in nearly a month usually means a short leash and an early hook—exactly the kind of unpredictability that can make a game either sneaky-fun or forgettable. Brady Singer brings a pedestrian surface line but has missed bats consistently, though his command lapses can turn innings into slogs. Both pitchers post modest pNERD scores (3.22 and 3.92) that land below today's 5.50 average, and neither offers much analytical shine beyond decent strikeout stuff undercut by shaky command. The Reds' tNERD (5.25) edges the A's (2.79) thanks to better barrel rate and a younger roster, but both teams are underperforming their peripherals, with sizable positive luck scores suggesting some in-game frustration is baked in. The resulting 7.59 gNERD sits below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate (11.05), making this one you can skip unless you're specifically nostalgic for the Coliseum.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Athletics

Cincinnati Reds

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Good stuff here — Dobnak's comeback story and Ryan's slump are exactly the color needed.

A former Twins washout is quietly outdueling his old team's ace, and that oddity alone makes this worth a glance — even if the underlying NERD math says skip it. Kansas City's Randy Dobnak, who was designated for assignment and bounced to the Mariners before Kansas City picked him up, has been the story of this series: Dobnak, the longtime Twin who was acquired by Kansas City from Seattle in June, has been outstanding since his debut with the Royals on July 2. Just last Wednesday he tossed seven shutout innings against his former club, permitting four hits and one walk in seven innings while striking out four, matching a career high and marking the first time he'd thrown more than 100 pitches in a start. Joe Ryan, meanwhile, is scuffling — he's 1-4 with a 4.91 ERA over his last six starts, allowing 12 runs and 18 hits in 10 innings of the past two — though his xFIP- of 87 still says he's the better bet on paper, and he owns this game's only pitcher NERD score of note (6.23) thanks to strong strike-throwing and whiff rates. Dobnak's pNERD (3.14) is a mirage built on a tidy ERA rather than real stuff. Team-wise, both clubs are duds: Minnesota's bullpen and defense are dragging its tNERD to 2.73, and Kansas City's bullpen (-36.5 runs) is arguably the worst in the league, propping up its 3.01 mark only via positive luck. A gNERD of 7.56 sits below the historical average and near the bottom of today's slate — watch for the Dobnak folklore, not the baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Not a game to prioritize, but the storyline behind Grayson Rodriguez's return to Camden Yards gives it a little juice. Both teams are functionally out of contention, and the gNERD of 7.11 sits below the historical average and near the bottom of today's slate, so this one's more soap opera than showcase. The real hook is Rodriguez himself: traded away by Baltimore last winter for Taylor Ward, he's now making his return in a deal that "has not paid off yet," carrying an ERA north of 8.00 in limited work with the Angels. He's coming off a four-inning, six-run outing against Detroit, and his underlying velocity and youth still generate a modestly positive pNERD, buoyed by some good luck that suggests his ugly results may not be fully deserved. Baltimore's opponent is a mystery arm (TBD), so there's zero pitching intel on that side. Tack on an Angels club gutted at the deadline as interim GM John Mozeliak finally started a rebuild, and you've got two teams playing out the string — watch for the Rodriguez revenge angle, not the scoreboard.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Los Angeles Angels

Baltimore Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 3, 2026