MLB: What to watch on August 5, 2026

• 05 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

The Brewers are running away with the NL Central and now get to face a Cy Young winner who's quietly been scuffling — this one's got both star power and a legitimate "can Skenes fix himself" storyline. Paul Skenes carries a gaudy 156 strikeouts and 1.11 WHIP into the start, but he's been rocked for a combined 10 runs in 9 1/3 innings in his past two starts, ballooning his ERA to 3.90 — a rare rough patch for a pitcher whose underlying stuff (upper-90s velocity, elite whiff rate) still grades out as one of the best in baseball, evidenced by his 10.98 pNERD. Opposite him, Kyle Harrison makes his first start since landing on the IL with forearm tightness back on July 11, adding some rust-shaking intrigue to an already loaded pitching matchup — his 10.63 pNERD is nearly identical to Skenes'. Milwaukee, at 9.25 tNERD, brings the best record in baseball, plus strong baserunning and a bullpen that grades out as one of the league's better units. Add it up and you get an 18.92 gNERD, comfortably above both the historical 95th percentile (14.76) and today's slate average — this is the game to watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Good under-the-radar arm show tucked into a division race, with Eury Pérez's triple-digit heat pushing the day's top pitcher NERD in this matchup. Atlanta enters on a roll, having taken game one of this series 4-2 behind Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley homers, and now looking to extend their winning streak to a season-high seven games against a Miami club that's road-weary and shorthanded. Pérez brings a 98.2 mph average heater and a strikeout-heavy profile that anchors his 7.62 pNERD, the better of the two starters today, while Grant Holmes carrying six scoreless innings before Austin Riley's two-run shot sealed it in Tuesday's opener shows Atlanta's rotation depth even without Chris Sale and an injured Reynaldo López. Elder counters with a serviceable 4.94 pNERD, buoyed by a quick pace but dinged by middling swing-and-miss stuff; still, since the All-Star break Elder has made three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA, and in his most recent outing threw six strong innings against Washington. Miami's tNERD (9.61) is the story on the offensive side — young, cheap, and running well — but that's offset by a bullpen that's a wreck, with four key relievers all on the injured list, which could turn a tight pitchers' duel into a late-inning track meet. With a 14.27 gNERD, this sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, making it one of the more watchable matchups on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Go back to top of page

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Boston is baseball's hottest team right now, and this White Sox-Red Sox matchup gives it a real pitching duel to go with the offense. The Red Sox have won 24 of their last 27 games, riding a five-game winning streak over Chicago into this one, including a 14-2 win Tuesday featuring a season-high four home runs, Caleb Durbin's first career grand slam, and a pair of homers from Wilyer Abreu. That's a tough act to follow, but the pitching matchup looks better than the box score suggests: Sean Burke owns the higher pNERD here, backed by strong strikeout stuff and a favorable xFIP-, while Sonny Gray brings similarly stingy xFIP- numbers despite diminished velocity and a plodding pace that dings his score. Gray has history with Chicago too — he's 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 career games against the White Sox, though he hasn't faced them since 2024. On the team side, the White Sox actually edge Boston in tNERD thanks to a young roster and modest payroll, while the Red Sox counter with a stronger bullpen and better fielding. With a gNERD of 12.77, this sits comfortably above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate — a solid, above-average watch rather than a must-see.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Chicago White Sox

Boston Red Sox

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Washington's lineup and legs make this one worth a look even though neither starter would inspire much confidence on paper. Jake Irvin owns a rough 5.56 ERA and enters after Washington dropped the first two games of this series and rides a five-game losing streak overall, but the peripherals underneath tell a kinder story—his pNERD sits at 4.23 thanks largely to positive regression luck, suggesting his results have been worse than his stuff deserves. Across the mound, Phillies rookie Andrew Painter is 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA across 71 innings, working back from Tommy John surgery and rarely finishing five innings, yet his 96-mph heat and youth push his pNERD to a solid 6.04—the highest number on the field today. The real story is the Nationals' offense: a 9.22 tNERD built on strong batting runs, elite barrel rate, and Phillies-beating baserunning, though a battered bullpen (missing several relievers to injury) could turn this into a track meet in a notoriously hitter-friendly park. At 12.60, the gNERD score lands comfortably above today's average, worth catching if you like chaos and hard contact more than crisp pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Two arms with legit swing-and-miss stuff are the story here, even if the teams around them are just okay. Drew Anderson and Bryan Woo each carry a pNERD near 8.2-8.4, well clear of the league average (4.89) and creeping toward the 95th-percentile territory (10.23), which pulls this game's 12.21 gNERD comfortably above both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate (10.51).

Anderson is the more interesting curiosity: a 32-year-old journeyman who spent years in Japan and Korea before signing with Detroit, he enters with a 4.24 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 40 appearances, including just two starts, making this only his third real start. Woo, meanwhile, is a legitimate power arm coming off a rough patch — he'll take the mound following a tough month of work, posting a brutal 6.43 ERA over four July starts — but his FIP was far better, and the model's positive luck reading suggests better days ahead rather than a slump to fear.

The teams themselves are middling (tNERDs of 4.92 and 2.96, both dragged down by shaky defense), but context adds spice: Detroit has won four straight and is chasing the final AL wild card spot, while Seattle has lost nine of 13 and is sliding in the West. Worth watching for the pitching, not the standings drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners

Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

A tale of two team strengths colliding with a lopsided pitching matchup — the Cubs' glove work and the Dodgers' lineup should keep this entertaining even if the arms don't. Both offenses rate near the top of the league: Chicago's tNERD of 9.67 and LA's 8.75 both sit above the historical 95th percentile, with the Cubs' defense a standout (fielding runs z-score of 3.22) and the Dodgers' bats doing real work (batting runs z-score of 2.02). The pitching matchup is lopsided, though — the Dodgers are without Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Bobby Miller, and Gavin Stone, all on the 60-day IL, leaving Lauer filling a rotation spot by necessity rather than merit, and his pNERD of essentially zero reflects that. Imanaga, by contrast, brings a respectable 5.95 pNERD and struggled a bit against the Dodgers back in April but still racked up six strikeouts in 5.1 innings that time. Storyline-wise, the Dodgers have lost five in a row after getting swept by the Red Sox, while the Cubs have won three of their last four and are looking to complete a series sweep. The 12.20 gNERD lands comfortably above average — worth a look for the offenses, not the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs

Eric Lauer, Los Angeles Dodgers

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Go back to top of page

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

A modest gNERD game elevated by two teams that keep alternating between looking dangerous and looking lost. The Yankees, sitting at 64-50, have won their last game, but a 5-5 mark over the last ten tells a more complicated story, while this is a team trying to rediscover itself against a Yankees club that is good enough to punish any lapse but inconsistent enough to be beaten. New York's tNERD (8.15) is comfortably above average today, powered by strong barrel rate and baserunning numbers, with Ben Rice the engine of this offense with 31 home runs, 73 RBI, and 70 runs scored, and José Caballero adding 27 stolen bases. St. Louis counters with Jordan Walker as the offensive anchor with 22 home runs and 81 RBI, though the Cardinals' tNERD (5.43) lags behind, dragged by shaky bullpen and batting-runs marks. On the mound, Warren (pNERD 5.02) edges Pallante (4.33) on xFIP-, and both right-handers have posted respectable ERAs but operate in vastly different offensive contexts, setting up a matchup that should stay competitive if not spectacular—solidly middle-of-the-pack for today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Yankees

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

A pitching-forward matchup between two teams playing out very different seasons, with Cleveland clinging to a wild-card spot while the Mets are just playing out the string. Christian Scott brings real helium: he's been terrific since July 8, holding hitters to one run or fewer in three of his last four outings and racking up 19 strikeouts over 16⅔ innings, and his 6.23 pNERD (well above the historic median) reflects a nasty 89 xFIP- and mid-90s heat. Tanner Bibee, by contrast, is the game's hard-luck story — tied for the majors' lead in losses despite solid stuff, undone by a Cleveland offense that's mustered exactly one run across his last two starts. His 3.02 pNERD is more pedestrian. Cleveland's 7.62 tNERD, boosted by a young, cheap roster and strong baserunning, outpaces a middling Mets lineup (5.04) that's without Juan Soto, while Jose Ramirez is day-to-day with a hand issue. The 10.96 gNERD sits a touch above both the historic and today's averages — solid, if unspectacular, mostly on the strength of Scott's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

New York Mets

Cleveland Guardians

Christian Scott, New York Mets

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Two last-place AL/NL West outfits playing out the string, saved from total obscurity by a genuinely quirky pitching storyline. Cody Bradford makes his first major-league start since 2024, having missed all of last season to Tommy John surgery — a legitimate feel-good return if you can stomach the rest of the roster around him. Opposite him, Carson Whisenhunt has been rough in his last two turns, allowing four runs in five innings against the Angels before an uglier line of six runs on seven hits in just 3.1 innings versus San Diego, and his season includes a bloated ERA and a walk rate creeping toward one per inning. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00 here, meaning there's no underlying advanced-stat picture to lean on — you're going on scouting reports and vibes. The Rangers (5.81 tNERD) snapped a six-game skid with a walk-off double from Ezequiel Duran, who's been the offensive engine of this series, while the Giants (4.54 tNERD) are missing four position players to injury, thinning an already middling lineup. A gNERD of 10.17 sits almost exactly at the historical median — watchable mostly for Bradford's return, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Texas Rangers

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

A fringe watchability game between two teams openly waving the white flag on their seasons, salvaged mostly by two lefties who are quietly pitching better than their records suggest. The Angels and Orioles both went full sell-mode at the deadline — Baltimore shipped out Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Tyler Wells, and Dean Kremer, while the Angels dealt José Soriano, Jo Adell, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Brent Suter, leaving mostly younger, less compelling rosters. Reid Detmers, who reportedly had a deal to the Cubs fall through at the last minute, brings real swing-and-miss stuff (7.44 pNERD) and an xFIP- of 86 that says his 4.03 ERA is a bit of an illusion — positive luck here suggests better days ahead. Trevor Rogers has quietly been Baltimore's best arm, posting a sub-2.00 ERA over his last eight starts, though his 4.95 pNERD trails Detmers'. Team-wise, neither offers much: Baltimore's 4.85 tNERD is middling, and the Angels' 1.09 is downright grim. At 9.17, the gNERD sits just below the historical median and below today's 10.51 average — watch for the pitching, not the standings race.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Los Angeles Angels

Baltimore Orioles

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A low-stakes affair between two teams heading in different directions, but the pitching matchup has a bit more shine than the standings suggest. The Twins arrive at Kauffman Stadium having dropped three straight, including back-to-back walk-off defeats in Seattle, and at 56-58 and four games out in the AL Central, the Twins cannot afford to let losses pile up. Kansas City, at 47-67, is playing for pride and development, though Bobby Witt Jr. remains must-watch, having returned with three hits and a two-run double in his last outing. Both offenses and defenses grade out modestly — tNERD scores of 2.76 and 2.88 sit well below the historic 50th percentile of 5.60 — with Kansas City's bullpen a genuine liability (a brutal -2.59 z-score). Dean Kremer and Noah Cameron both post respectable pNERD marks (5.60 and 5.84), buoyed by strong strikeout rates and, for Cameron, a quick pace and youth. It's an average gNERD of 8.54 — fine background viewing, nothing more, with Kremer reportedly vulnerable to extra-base damage against a lineup anchored by Witt.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

A trade-deadline debut wrapped in a genuine wild-card scrap, undercut by a rookie lefty who's still finding his footing. This one's mostly worth watching for the storyline: Casey Mize makes his Padres debut fresh off being dealt from Detroit, and it comes against Arizona — the very team that reportedly tried to acquire him — with San Diego sitting one game back of the Diamondbacks for the third National League Wild Card spot. Mize brings real substance to match the narrative; his pNERD of 6.02 reflects a strong xFIP- and a quick pace, and he's coming into this fresh after averaging 5 2/3 innings per appearance with a 3.32 ERA and 36-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio since returning from injury. Across the mound, rookie Mitch Bratt is the drag on this one — a putrid -3.46 pNERD (xFIP- north of 160) that's among the day's worst, though his last outing was actually his sharpest yet, giving up one run on three hits in five innings against Cleveland. The Padres' 9.04 tNERD, boosted by bullpen depth and fielding, makes this more watchable than the raw 8.12 gNERD suggests, but it still lands below both the historical and today's averages — tune in for Mize, not for the pitching matchup as a whole.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Casey Mize, San Diego Padres

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Go back to top of page

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

This is a Toronto Blue Jays team searching for offensive answers against an Astros club quietly rounding into form, with Jameson Taillon making his awkward Blue Jays debut after a deadline trade — an underdog storyline undercut by some genuinely alarming home-run numbers. Taillon arrives having allowed 11 runs in 8.1 innings in his last two starts, and the Astros tagged him for four runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings back in May, and his gopher-ball problem is real: he's allowing 2.96 HR/9 this season, nearly triple Hunter Brown's 1.03 mark. Toronto is further hamstrung with Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis both out with elbow injuries, plus Anthony Santander out with a shoulder issue. Brown, meanwhile, is quietly one of the better starters in the AL right now, and Houston is 8-2 in their last 10 games and sits atop the AL West, with Yordan Alvarez raking at home. The NERD math backs up the lopsidedness: a gNERD of 6.43 sits well below both the historic (10.11) and today's (10.51) averages, with neither team's tNERD topping 4 and Taillon's pNERD dragged down by shaky command. Watch only if you enjoy rooting for a rebuild in progress.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros

Jameson Taillon, Toronto Blue Jays

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Go back to top of page

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Two struggling teams, two shaky starters, and a ballpark that loves the long ball—this one's for stat sheets and lottery tickets, not appointment viewing. The Athletics arrive in freefall, having gone 36-36 on June 15 but 9-32 since, and they just dropped a sixth straight after Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart scored on wild pitches in the eighth. Cincinnati, by contrast, has won four of five, though a tNERD of 5.00 (roughly average by today's slate) suggests they're no offensive juggernaut—their batting runs are ugly, propped up mostly by barrel rate and a young, cheap roster.

Lopez brings a -1.43 pNERD, dragged down by a rough xFIP-, poor command, and mediocre stuff; for context, one betting analysis flagged him for walking 42 batters in just 70 innings this season. Lowder is the one bright spot pitching-wise—24 years old, quick-working (17.2s pace), and carrying real underperformance-luck value, giving him a 4.24 pNERD that's still just middling by today's standards. Analysts expect a track-meet at Great American Ball Park — a venue that plays 10% above average for runs. With a gNERD of 5.24, well below both the historical and today's averages, this is a game to skip unless you enjoy watching bullpens implode.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Athletics

Cincinnati Reds

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

This one's a skippable Wednesday matinee: two last-place-adjacent vibes colliding at altitude, with neither pitcher offering much swing-and-miss appeal. The Rays arrive as AL East front-runners enjoying a lead of 24 games over Colorado in the standings, so the playoff implications run in one direction only, while the Rockies are simply playing out the string in Denver. Nick Martinez has been a control artist rather than a strikeout machine — he enters with a 2.77 ERA across 21 outings, a 1.10 WHIP, and a strikeout rate of just 14 percent — and his modest pNERD (2.78) reflects that low-whiff, pound-the-zone approach. Sugano's surface numbers look better than his stuff deserves; his xFIP paints an uglier picture than his gaudy win total, and pitching at Coors is never a friendly proving ground for a soft-tossing sinker/splitter arm. Colorado's offense (tNERD 0.88, barely above the season floor) is thin, and the Rays' own barrel-rate woes keep their tNERD only middling. With a gNERD of 4.56 — well below the historic average of roughly 10 and near the bottom of today's slate — this is one to have on in the background at most.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Colorado Rockies

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 4, 2026