MLB: What to watch on August 7, 2026

• 07 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Cleveland's on a three-game losing streak and just got run out of town by the Mets, while Chicago is nursing bruises from a four-hour, 13-inning heartbreaker against Boston — so this AL Central tilt has a "please just get through this weekend" energy that oddly makes it more watchable, not less. The headline is the rookie lefty duel: Noah Schultz is slated to start for the White Sox against fellow left-hander Parker Messick in a duel of rookies. Messick has been the real deal, backed by strong strikeout and command marks that drive his 7.68 pNERD, and his tidy xFIP- makes him one of the more efficient young arms around. Schultz, still just 22, throws hard at 95-plus but has been homer-prone and wild in the zone, with an xFIP- that lags his shiny recent outing — his negative luck value hints some correction toward better results is plausible. Both rosters skew young and cheap, which the tNERD payroll and age components reward, pushing Chicago's team score toward the top of today's range. At 13.53, this game's gNERD sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

A young, surprisingly potent Nationals lineup against a Reds club that just swept the A's but can't hit a lick on the road—this one's got more juice than the standings suggest. Washington's tNERD of 9.27 is built on real thump: they're posting strong batting and baserunning numbers with a roster that averages just 27.1 years old, though their bullpen (-27.8 runs) is a five-alarm fire waiting to undo any lead. Cincinnati, fresh off completing a sweep of Oakland behind Andrew Abbott's sixth win, brings a middling 5.21 tNERD, dragged down by poor batting runs and its own shaky relief corps. On the mound, Cade Cavalli—still building back after Tommy John recovery—sits at 8-5 with 133 strikeouts and a tidy 81 xFIP-, backed by a 96.6 mph fastball that grades out well above average, worth his 7.00 pNERD. Cincinnati's starter is unannounced, so half the pitching equation is a shrug emoji. Still, at 13.24, this gNERD sits comfortably above the daily and historical averages, making it a solidly watchable pick.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Cincinnati Reds

Washington Nationals

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Milwaukee's bullpen is red-hot and Minnesota's defense is a mess, which pretty much tells you everything about why this game leans watchable despite two names casual fans won't recognize. The Brewers own the NL's best record and are riding a three-game home winning streak, with a tNERD of 9.44 fueled by strong baserunning, a deep bullpen, and a young, cost-effective roster. Minnesota, by contrast, is a middling road team with negative marks in fielding and baserunning, dragging their tNERD down to 2.61. On the mound, Shane Drohan gets the spotlight: since debuting this April, he's been the superior arm here, and he has reliably pitched six innings the last month or so, posting a 3.48 ERA and 3.02 FIP with 89 strikeouts this season, and this is his first career appearance against Minnesota. Zebby Matthews, freshly recalled from Triple-A after Joe Ryan's IL stint, brings positive pNERD largely from good luck and velocity rather than dominant peripherals — betting markets and prop analysts favor Drohan's cleaner strikeout profile. At 12.78, the gNERD sits comfortably above the historical median, making this an above-average, if not electric, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Minnesota Twins

Milwaukee Brewers

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Boston's rookie ace is quietly building a resume worth tuning in for, while the Athletics roll out a struggling arm on the tail end of a brutal skid — this one's lopsided but has a legitimate pitching story worth watching. Payton Tolle, the 23-year-old lefty, has been a revelation: he's posting a 3.297 ERA, 1.1485 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 over 101 innings, backed by a four-seam fastball that sits at 96.1 mph with a 25.0% whiff rate and a curveball generating a 45.7% whiff rate. He's dominant enough that Tolle has struck out at least six batters in each of his last five games, all Sox wins, and he already torched this same Athletics lineup last month. His 9.35 pNERD — youth, tidy xFIP-, and elite strike rates — is comfortably above today's average and near the historical 95th percentile. Jack Perkins is the counterweight: solid stuff (95.8 mph, strong swinging-strike numbers) but genuinely scuffling, having posted a rough 6.72 ERA, and Boston's bullpen and defense have been excellent while Oakland's have not. The 12.50 gNERD sits above today's average, mostly propped up by the pitching gap rather than any real drama between two clubs pointed in opposite directions.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Athletics

Boston Red Sox

Jack Perkins, Athletics

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Now I have plenty of good material — this makes it easy to write the summary.

Zack Wheeler at his most Wheeler-esque against a Blue Jays lineup that's currently limping on both legs — this is the game to watch. Toronto arrives from Chicago fresh off a gut-punch extra-innings loss, missing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a hamstring issue, and now has to face a pitcher who's carries a 2.49 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and 126 strikeouts across 18 starts, and he has walked just 23 batters all season. That effectiveness shows up in his 9.44 pNERD, the best pitching mark in today's slate, built almost entirely on an absurd xFIP- that would make most rotations blush. Opposing him is José Soriano, making his Blue Jays debut after being acquired in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels earlier in the week... coming off a strong July in which he posted a 2.74 ERA in four starts — a nice sub-plot even if his own pNERD (7.18) trails Wheeler's. Team-wise this is lopsided: Philadelphia's 5.71 tNERD comfortably outpaces Toronto's 1.94, roughly today's low mark, thanks largely to the Jays' brutal barrel rate and batting runs. The 12.14 gNERD sits comfortably above today's average, so tune in for the pitching, not the offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Toronto Blue Jays

Philadelphia Phillies

José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, 6:45p

Summary

Tampa Bay’s ace duel visits Seattle with playoff stakes and two legit strikeout arms, though the Mariners’ lineup and glovework are dragging the watchability score down a notch. This is a genuine top-of-rotation matchup: Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners host Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays in what's being billed as a showdown of aces, with the added wrinkle that each starting pitcher will be facing his home-state team — Gilbert grew up near Orlando, while Rasmussen was born near Seattle and went to high school in Spokane. Rasmussen (pNERD 8.31) has been excellent all year, with strong xFIP- and strikeout marks, and his command has only sharpened lately — after two rough July outings, he's allowed just two runs across his last three starts spanning 18 innings with a 14-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gilbert (pNERD 7.52) is nearly as good, pairing plus velocity with a high whiff rate, though he's a tick slower-paced. The gap is on the team side: Tampa's deep, well-rounded roster (tNERD 5.27) is a stark contrast to Seattle's punchless, error-prone group (tNERD 2.91), which is mired in a stretch that has one outlet calling it a "recent 16-25 skid and bullpen inconsistency." With a 12.00 gNERD, this sits comfortably above the historical median and near today's slate average — worth tuning in mainly for the pitching, not the lineups.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle Mariners

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

I have plenty to work with here. Let me write the summary.

Roki Sasaki brings a genuine swing-and-miss weapon into a desert offense-fest, even if neither starter's ERA will win any awards. The Dodgers arrive in Phoenix in an ugly patch, having been swept aside by the Cubs and Red Sox in turn, but the roster's quality means the sportsbooks barely blink — Sasaki takes the ball and Los Angeles is still favored. His pNERD of 8.46 is driven by real stuff, not results: his split-finger sits at 27.1% usage, generates a 30.7% whiff rate, and holds opposing hitters to a .203 xwOBA, and his velocity and youth both grade out well. Merrill Kelly, on the other hand, is scuffling — 8-9 with a 5.04 ERA and a bloated 1.49 WHIP over 114.1 innings, having already allowed 124 hits and 46 walks — and his pNERD of 1.85 reflects an unimpressive xFIP-. The Dodgers' tNERD (8.93) dwarfs Arizona's (4.39), fueled by strong batting and fielding runs, though a modest positive luck figure suggests LA's offense could still be underperforming its true talent. At 11.82, tonight's gNERD sits comfortably above the historical median and near today's slate average — worth a look mostly for Sasaki's arm, less for the drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Max Fried finally gets his revenge game against the franchise that raised him, and it's a solid watch even if the pitching matchup is lopsided on paper. Atlanta arrives at Yankee Stadium riding a hot streak and the best record in baseball, while Fried—working his way back from an elbow injury that cost him two months—faces his former team for the first time in his career after eight seasons in Atlanta. That storyline alone gives this game juice beyond the numbers, and the numbers themselves aren't bad: an 11.74 gNERD lands solidly above the historical median and near today's average. New York's 8.00 tNERD is the headline component, fueled by a strong barrel rate and the game's best baserunning marks. Fried's peripherals (a tidy 88 xFIP-) support a 4.10 pNERD, though his plodding pace drags it down. Tyler Mahle, freshly acquired from San Francisco and making his Braves debut, brings ugly surface stats but a favorable luck z-score suggesting better days ahead, plus a short porch in right field that could turn any mistake into a souvenir. Not a marquee arms race, but a legitimately compelling storyline game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

New York Yankees

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers, 5:15p

Summary

Nathan Eovaldi's underlying numbers say he's better than his surface stats suggest, and he'll try to prove it after a rough outing — that's the crux of this one. Eovaldi's the headliner here, and the Rangers' late-season charge gives this game a bit of juice even if the box scores haven't been pretty lately. He's in dire need of a bounce back after his start against Houston last Friday in which he gave up 10 hits and six earned runs in five innings, but his 8.37 pNERD — comfortably above today's average of 5.76 — says the underlying stuff (chase rates, whiff rate, a sub-3.95 xERA) is legit; the surface numbers are just lying to you. Opposite him, Shane Baz has quietly been Baltimore's rotation anchor, and in his last start he went 6.1 innings, allowing one run on six hits, while striking out four against Philadelphia — solid, if unspectacular, which is reflected in his more modest 3.86 pNERD.

Both clubs arrive with mediocre-but-alive credentials: Baltimore is 56-59, sitting in fourth place within the AL East, and 5-5 over its last 10 games, in the race for a wild-card spot. The Rangers' tNERD gets a boost mostly from good fortune — a big positive luck score suggests Texas has been running hotter than its underlying numbers deserve, so don't be shocked if the win total cools. At 11.53, this game's gNERD sits a shade above the historical average and right in line with today's slate — solidly watchable, carried more by Eovaldi's arm than by any dramatic storyline.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Texas Rangers

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

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Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals, 5:10p

Summary

A last-place club with little to offer squares off against a Cubs team that's quietly one of the better all-around outfits in baseball, with a decent under-the-radar pitching matchup providing the intrigue. The Cubs roll into Kauffman Stadium riding a 7-3 stretch and outscoring opponents by 20 runs over their last ten, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is the engine, producing at a level that demands attention every time he steps to the plate. Chicago's 9.94 tNERD is a legitimately strong mark, built on standout fielding and batting runs, though a shaky bullpen dings it. Kansas City's 2.83 tNERD reflects a last-place roster gutted by injuries — Cole Ragans, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Jonathan India are all out — and a bullpen that's been a genuine liability. Kevin Gausman toes the rubber for Chicago, while Daniel Lynch enters at 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP — a surprisingly effective, quietly encouraging follow-up act after injury absences. The 11.38 gNERD sits a touch above today's average, driven almost entirely by the Cubs' offensive and defensive quality rather than any real drama between these two clubs.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Kansas City Royals

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

A middling matchup between two teams playing out the string, elevated slightly by a Pirates lineup that's been sneaky-productive lately. Pittsburgh (57-60) enters with baserunning and batting runs both comfortably above average, though their putrid outfield defense keeps threatening to give it all back. New York (50-66) is without Juan Soto (calf) and Mark Vientos (hand), which takes some shine off a lineup that still profiles as more disciplined than Pittsburgh's rebuilt-on-the-fly crew. Carmen Mlodzinski takes the ball for the Pirates sporting a 3.15 ERA and 76 strikeouts, backed by decent velocity, though his modest swinging-strike rate caps his pNERD at a pedestrian 3.96. Opposite him, Zac Thornton is a total mystery statistically — no pNERD data exists yet, though he's reportedly quietly effective this year. At 10.54, the gNERD sits almost exactly at the historical median, and below today's slate average of 11.22 — perfectly watchable if it's on, but nothing you need to rearrange your evening around.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

A rehab-limited Astros arm against a Padres team riding a favorable bullpen and a newly-acquired lefty makes for a lopsided but not unwatchable Friday night. This one's less about star power and more about storylines: Ronel Blanco is still working his way back from major elbow surgery, and it shows — he's thrown only 82, 85, and 86 pitches in his first three major-league starts back from major elbow surgery, has not completed six innings, and his command hasn't caught up to his stuff, evidenced by eight walks and five homers allowed in just 14.2 innings. Opposing him is Robbie Ray, making his Padres debut after being newly acquired — he's been steady if unspectacular, with a 3.08 ERA and 1.288 WHIP across 122.2 innings, with 107 strikeouts, though his pNERD of 1.20 reflects an xFIP that's less rosy than the ERA suggests. The Padres' 9.30 tNERD is the headline number here, fueled by a bullpen that's been excellent all year, strong fielding, and solid baserunning, while Houston's tNERD limps in at 3.79, dragged down by shaky defense and baserunning. With a combined pitcher NERD of just 3.10, this game leans on team quality and Petco's pitcher-friendly dimensions rather than must-watch starters.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Houston Astros

San Diego Padres

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

A rookie fireballer with electric stuff but shaky control faces a young, disciplined Marlins lineup that's quietly been one of the more entertaining teams in baseball this year. George Klassen, the Angels' hard-throwing prospect, made a surprise MLB debut back in April after an injured starter was scratched, and the early returns have been rocky — he struggled at the Double-A level in 2025 with a 5.35 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 126:46 K:BB across 102.2 innings, and his early big-league outings have shown similar control issues, which is why there's no reliable pNERD data on him yet. Tyler Phillips brings modest but real value for Miami, with above-average velocity and a passable strikeout rate, netting a pNERD right around league average. The real story here is Miami's 9.07 tNERD, boosted by a young, cheap roster, strong baserunning, and a hefty positive luck score suggesting they've actually been better than their results — while the Angels check in near the bottom of today's team scores thanks to shaky fielding and baserunning. Overall, this lands at 9.57 gNERD, a tick below average for the day, but Klassen's volatility alone makes it worth a peek.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Miami Marlins

George Klassen, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

A fringe-watchability game between two teams playing out the string on lost seasons, redeemed only by the storyline hanging over Detroit's roster. The Tigers, who traded away Tarik Skubal & Casey Mize, arrive at 56-59, while the Giants sit at 48-67 in a season McCovey Chronicles wryly notes is still 4 games off the pace of the 100-loss 1985 Giants. It's the first meeting between the two teams this season, so there's no rivalry heat to lean on. Keider Montero takes the ball for Detroit sporting solid surface numbers—RHP 8-6, 3.17 ERA—but his pNERD of 3.67 reflects an unspectacular strikeout rate and average velocity, nothing that screams must-watch. San Francisco's starter is still unannounced, so that half of the marquee is a total mystery with zero data to judge. Both offenses carry modest tNERD marks in the mid-4s, right around league average, with Detroit's fielding and Giants' bullpen and baserunning dragging things down further. At a gNERD of 9.04, this one lands below both the historical average and today's slate average—background noise rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Detroit Tigers

San Francisco Giants

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

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Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

Colorado's a last-place team riding an 18-38 road record into a start against the worst-scoring lineup they'll face all trip, so don't expect fireworks—this is a game for people who enjoy watching bad baseball played competently, or not even that.

Feltner's numbers tell the story: a 5.75 ERA and an 8.75 ERA in five starts since July 1, which is the kind of stretch that makes a 2.91 pNERD look generous. The one nugget of intrigue is that he hasn't faced the Cardinals since 2024, when he posted a 1.59 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 11⅓ innings across two starts—not that recent form should matter much given how far his skills have eroded since. Leahy, by contrast, has quietly been one of St. Louis's steadier options, with a 3.44 ERA representing one of the steadier performances in the Cardinals rotation, and Colorado's lineup has struggled against him specifically: current Rockies are a combined 2-for-17 with seven strikeouts against Leahy, with only Kyle Karros and Ezequiel Tovar managing hits. Add Jordan Walker's knee soreness sidelining one of St. Louis's few above-average bats, and neither offense figures to do much damage. The tNERD gap (0.90 vs. 5.41) reflects the Rockies' historically bad season, and with a gNERD of 6.78—below both today's slate average and the long-run historical median—this one's easy to skip unless you're a Cardinals completionist.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Colorado Rockies

St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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