MLB: What to watch on August 9, 2026

• 09 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Jacob Misiorowski is must-watch, and even a highly imbalanced pitching matchup can't drag this one below elite territory for a Sunday getaway game. The Brewers' rookie phenom brings a video-game stat line into this one — he's leading the league in ERA, FIP, strikeouts, WHIP, and K/BB ratio, and sits at 11-5 with a 1.63 ERA with his sights on potentially crossing the 200-strikeout threshold. His pNERD of 15.96 is essentially off the charts — miles above today's average of 5.36 and even above the historic 95th percentile — built on absurd swinging-strike and xFIP- numbers paired with a fastball touching triple digits. Across the diamond, Wisconsin native Connor Prielipp is having a solid rookie year overall (6.37 pNERD, above average) but has scuffled lately, allowing three runs in five-plus innings against Seattle most recently. Milwaukee's tNERD of 9.85 is near the top of the league, fueled by strong baserunning and one of the best bullpens around, while Minnesota's offense limps in without Byron Buxton, who's on the injured list since late July with a right hip impingement. With a gNERD of 17.43 — comfortably above today's slate and among the best games recently — this is the one to prioritize if you just want to watch someone make big-league hitters look silly.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Minnesota Twins

Milwaukee Brewers

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

Good stuff for a decent summary. Now write it.

A rubber match at Yankee Stadium with real playoff-atmosphere stakes and one of the better pitching mismatches you'll find on the schedule. New York has already banked the first two games of this series—Gerrit Cole allowed just two earned runs over seven innings in Saturday's win, and Tanner Mahle held the Braves to two runs in Friday's opener—and now sends out Cam Schlittler, who's quietly been the Yankees' most reliable arm in the second half with a sub-2.30 ERA and 171 strikeouts. His pNERD of 10.47 checks out: mid-90s heat that actually touches 98, a chase-inducing slider, and an xFIP- nearly 30% better than league average all point to a legitimately dominant start. Grant Holmes is fine, not flashy—his pNERD of 3.28 reflects a middling swinging-strike rate and shaky command. The juicier subplot is Atlanta's lineup, with Ronald Acuna Jr. back from a hamstring injury and swinging it well, having gone deep twice and driven in three runs recently. Both tNERD marks sit comfortably above average, with the Yankees' barrel rate and baserunning standing out. At 14.01, this gNERD lands well above the historical median and close to today's top tier—worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

New York Yankees

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

Both teams sit under .500, but this rubber match still packs punch thanks to Jared Jones. The Pirates just throttled the Mets 9-0 in the series' penultimate game, and Pittsburgh desperately needed that offensive outburst, which snapped a four-game losing streak, and now try to string wins together for the first time in two weeks. Jones is the headliner here—his 98.4 mph average fastball velocity and elite swinging-strike rate produce a pNERD of 10.00, comfortably above today's slate average, and his July was terrific: 27 innings, 33 strikeouts and six walks across five starts, though his last outing was a clunker against Milwaukee. Manaea, by contrast, is merely solid; he's been one of the Mets' more effective starters over the past month, picking up a win against Cleveland by allowing two runs over six innings with seven strikeouts, aided by an uncharacteristic velocity bump. On the team side, Pittsburgh's 7.03 tNERD edges New York's 5.34, fueled by strong baserunning and a payroll-underdog scrappiness that contrasts with the Mets' star-studded, high-priced roster. Add it up and you get a 13.73 gNERD—solidly above both the historic and today's averages—making this one worth a look, mostly for Jones' arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Cleveland at Chicago closes a tense weekend set with real division stakes, and both starters have been quietly steady, making this an above-average watch even without fireworks. The White Sox actually sit atop the AL Central, with Cleveland trying to close the gap; the two teams split the first two games, with Chicago winning 6-3 on Saturday after Cleveland took the opener 8-2 on Friday, so the rubber match carries weight. Cantillo and Martin both grade out in solid-average territory (pNERD 5.41 and 5.04), each backed by respectable xFIP- marks in the mid-90s rather than gaudy strikeout stuff — competent rather than thrilling. The lineups provide the juice: Cleveland's José Ramírez remains a threat with 28 stolen bases and 52 runs, while Chicago counters with Munetaka Murakami's 26 home runs and a productive Vargas/Montgomery combo. Both clubs post tNERD scores near 7.4-7.8, comfortably above the historical average, thanks largely to young, discount payrolls rather than star power. Combined, the 12.82 gNERD lands solidly above the historical median and roughly in line with today's slate average — a division scrap worth a look, if not a must-see.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals, 9:15a

Summary

A high-scoring team battle wrapped around two shaky, low-strikeout stuff arms — watch for the offense, not the pitching duel. Washington's 9.41 tNERD is one of the stronger scores of the day, fueled by a team .765 OPS against Cincinnati's .710 OPS, and the Nats arrive having won three of four after dropping a season-worst seven in a row, including Saturday's 8-2 win that snapped Cincinnati ace Chase Burns' 12-game winning streak. Cincinnati's bullpen is the drag on their tNERD, ranking as one of the league's worst run-prevention pens. On the mound, Brad Lord (pNERD 6.00) is stretching out after going on the 15-day injured list with side tightness and making his return in relief before this spot start — he's also historically owned the Reds, going 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in two games (one start) against the Reds. Brady Singer (pNERD 4.32) has been hittable all year and has been dreadful specifically against Washington, sporting a 9.82 ERA in three starts against the Nationals. The 12.55 gNERD sits comfortably above the historic average — worth a look for the lineups alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Cincinnati Reds

Washington Nationals

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

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Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

A hot young arm meets a former ace trying to rediscover his form, and the NERD math actually backs up the hype. Troy Melton, Detroit's 25-year-old righty, has been the story of the Tigers' rotation shake-up—he's hasn't lost since June 25 and just turned in back-to-back seven-inning shutout efforts, allowing 6 hits and four walks while striking out nine for a 2.66 FIP and a 0.71 WHIP. That production, plus a mid-90s fastball and a strong xFIP-, gives him a 7.55 pNERD, comfortably above average. Across the mound, Logan Webb is trying to climb out of a rough patch—a bit of a down year by his standards after a rough July with a bloated 6.59 ERA—but he answered with a shutout start against Texas, and his elite ground-ball, low-xFIP profile still earns a solid pNERD of 5.76. Team-wise, both clubs are middling on paper, though Detroit's fading wild-card push adds stakes while San Francisco is playing out the season but has already shown this week it can compete with a team chasing October. At 11.19, the gNERD sits just above the historical average and near today's midpoint—a solid, watchable pitching-forward matchup rather than a must-see event.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Detroit Tigers

San Francisco Giants

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

Good history matchup this is: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks, and it's Wrobleski due for a bounce-back while Rodriguez has owned LA all year, but the numbers say this is a middling watch, not a must-see.

Justin Wrobleski, an All-Star this season, enters after a rocky stretch — he allowed four home runs in each of his last two outings, matching his total from his first 17 games and 106 2/3 innings this season. His pNERD of 6.47 is buoyed by a quick pace and youth, though a middling xFIP- and low swinging-strike rate keep him from elite territory. Eduardo Rodriguez, meanwhile, owns this matchup — the Diamondbacks have won both of Rodríguez's starts against the Dodgers this season, with him going six innings on both June 1 and July 10 with a total of three runs allowed — but his pNERD sits at just 2.60, dragged down by an above-average xFIP- and shaky command. The Dodgers' 8.67 tNERD, powered by strong batting and barrel rates, dwarfs Arizona's 4.40, giving this game a tNERD gap that favors star power (Ohtani, Freeman, Tucker) over balance. At 11.07, the gNERD lands just above the historical median and slightly below today's slate average — watchable, particularly for the Wrobleski redemption arc, but not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

Not exactly appointment viewing, but the Marlins' scrappy roster gives it a pulse. The Angels (45-72, an ugly 20-39 on the road) roll into Miami for the rubber match of a series that's tied 1-1, and it's the third time these teams square off this season. Grayson Rodriguez, acquired from Baltimore in the offseason in exchange for Taylor Ward after missing the 2025 season recovering from right elbow surgery to remove bone spurs, has struggled mightily in his return, sporting a rough 7.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP — his 4.15 pNERD reflects mediocre stuff (subpar swinging-strike rate) partly offset by a big velocity mismatch with his results, suggesting some positive regression is possible. Ryan Gusto's ugly 0-3 record hides better process — an xFIP- of 98 and a decent strike rate give him the higher pNERD of the two. The real story is Miami's tNERD of 9.05, nearly the day's ceiling, built on a young, cheap roster with strong baserunning, bullpen, and fielding marks — the Angels' 1.02 tNERD is the anti-Marlins, bottom-of-the-barrel almost everywhere. Overall gNERD of 9.82 sits right around the historical middle — watchable mostly for Miami's vibe, not Anaheim's.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Miami Marlins

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

A lopsided division of labor makes this one watchable mainly for Cubs fans, though there's a fun subplot in a journeyman reinventing himself as a groundball artist. Chicago rolls into Kauffman Stadium fresh off a three-game sweep of the Dodgers and a comeback win over the Blue Jays, and their tNERD of 9.65 reflects an offense and defense that both grade out well above average, though a shaky bullpen (worth -1.11) and unspectacular broadcast ratings temper the shine a bit. Kansas City, at a meager 2.75 tNERD, is the driftwood here — the Royals offense has been below average this season (95 wRC+, 21st in MLB), even worse in the second half (89 wRC+), and their bullpen (-2.61) is one of the worst pieces in this whole dataset. On the mound, Matthew Boyd (pNERD 5.00) has quietly been one of the better lefties in the league since Boyd will look to continue his strong performance since coming off the IL, pairing a healthy strike rate with average stuff. Randy Dobnak (pNERD 2.13) is the stranger story: a 1.16 ERA that's wildly out of step with a 4.22 FIP, because his walk and strikeout rates are both pretty horrible, but he is a groundball machine — that's run-prevention smoke and mirrors that shows up as a below-average pNERD. Overall gNERD of 9.77 sits a shade under the historic median, and squarely below today's slate average, so slot this one in as a background game unless you enjoy watching a good team feast on a broken bullpen.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Kansas City Royals

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

The Rays' machine rolls into Seattle as the best team in the AL, while the Mariners are scrapping to stay in the wild-card race—so this one's really about desperation versus dominance. Tampa Bay arrives having won five straight and eight of ten, riding the kind of loose confidence that comes from holding a division lead, while Seattle is nursing a three-game skid and leaning on a 33-28 home mark as its lone comfort. Emerson Hancock (6-6, 3.33 ERA) gives Seattle a solid pNERD of 6.06, built on a strong xFIP- and a lively 95-mph fastball. His counterpart is officially TBD, though reports point to Ian Seymour (8-3, 4.27 ERA), who carries no pNERD data here. Tampa's offense, paced by Junior Caminero's 33 homers, posts strong batting and baserunning marks but an oddly poor barrel rate, while Seattle's fielding runs are ugly (-29). Both clubs show positive luck scores, suggesting underlying numbers better than results so far. At 9.72, the gNERD sits a shade below the historic average—watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle Mariners

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:35a

Summary

Toronto's already stolen two extra-base heartbreakers from Philly this weekend, and this rubber match features one of the sharper arms in baseball trying to stop the bleeding. Jesús Luzardo carries a 10.30 pNERD—well above today's average—and is fresh off eight scoreless innings against Washington, backed by an xFIP- of 72 that says his 3.36 ERA might actually be selling him short. Across the mound, Shane Bieber has been the opposite story: a 5.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and a pNERD of just 0.55, with shaky strike-throwing and swing-and-miss numbers that make his outings feel like a controlled demolition. The Blue Jays have taken the first two games of the set, including a 7-5 win Saturday and a 5-4 victory Friday, and are one win from a sweep—decent theater even if the underlying talent gap favors Philadelphia. Toronto's tNERD of 2.11 reflects a genuinely punchless lineup (bottom-of-the-barrel contact and barrel rates), while Philadelphia's 5.70 is buoyed by strong baserunning and bullpen work, though their own bats have also underperformed. The 9.33 gNERD lands below today's 10.96 average—watchable mainly for Luzardo's start and the sweep subplot, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Toronto Blue Jays

Philadelphia Phillies

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres, 5:20p

Summary

A middling matchup on paper, elevated mostly by San Diego's bullpen and Houston's need to atone for a lopsided rubber match. The Padres bring MLB's best trump card in the ninth—Mason Miller is posting a 0.91 ERA with 29 saves, making late-inning leads feel very different when San Diego holds them—and that shows up in a Padres tNERD of 9.14, well above the historic 95th percentile, driven by a strong bullpen, fielding, and baserunning profile. Houston's tNERD (4.14) is unremarkable but respectable, propped up by solid batting runs despite shaky defense and baserunning. The pitching matchup is the drag here: Cristian Javier returns to Houston's rotation carrying a career-worst xFIP-, walking too many and missing bats less than usual, though his ugly 23.0 luck figure suggests some positive regression could be coming. His counterpart, Randy Vasquez, has no NERD profile available yet. With a gNERD of 9.06—below both the historic average and today's slate average—this is a game worth a glance for the ninth inning and playoff stakes, but not one to clear your schedule for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Houston Astros

San Diego Padres

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Good sense of the game now. Let me write the summary.

A middle-of-the-road matchup between two teams jockeying for playoff position, elevated slightly by a couple of good comeback stories on the mound. Cade Povich is fresh off his best outing in months — Povich went six shutout innings against the Angels, allowing seven hits while striking out seven, in his first major league outing in almost three months after missing time with left forearm discomfort. That kind of return-from-injury bounce-back is the most compelling storyline here, even if his 3.47 pNERD is nothing special. Kumar Rocker, coming off a no-decision against Houston where he allowed 10 hits and three earned runs in 5.1 innings, striking out five and walking two, checks in with a similarly modest 4.11 pNERD — decent strikeout stuff but a slow pace that drags his score down. Neither arm is enough to make this a must-watch pitching duel. On the team side, Texas's 5.60 tNERD edges Baltimore's 4.85, boosted mostly by a hefty positive luck score, suggesting the Rangers have actually been underperforming their skill level and could be better than their results indicate — worth banking for future games too. With a 9.01 gNERD, this one lands below the historical median (10.10) and well under today's slate average (10.96), so if your schedule is crowded, there are more entertaining options on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Texas Rangers

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

Boston's 15-game winning streak snapped one day, then their nine-game streak snapped the next — this series has been a whiplash machine, and the finale offers a decent undercard. Boston's historic run cooled off in a hurry: Saturday's 7-3 loss to Oakland snapped their nine-game winning streak and was only the fourth time in 31 games that Boston has not emerged victorious, and that came right after a jaw-dropping 15-game streak earlier in July. Oakland, still buried at the bottom of the AL, gets J.T. Ginn on the mound after he came off the 15-day injured list with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, and his last outing wasn't sharp — a no-decision in a 5-4 loss to Cincinnati, giving up three runs and five hits in six innings with two walks and five strikeouts. Boston counters with a mystery arm, likely a bullpen day, which caps the pitching NERD ceiling here. The tNERD gap favors Boston comfortably thanks to a strong bullpen and fielding marks, while Oakland's tNERD is dragged down by shaky fielding and bullpen work, offset only slightly by underperformance-driven positive luck. With a gNERD of 8.53 — a shade below the historical average and well below today's slate average — this one's watchable mostly for storyline momentum rather than pitching craft.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Athletics

Boston Red Sox

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

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Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

Two last-place-adjacent teams closing out a forgettable series, and the NERD math agrees this one's a skip unless you're desperate for baseball. Colorado sits in the NL West basement and St. Louis isn't much better off, and the pitching matchup does little to change that verdict. Michael Lorenzen will start on Sunday for the Rockies, who had lost four games in a row before McCarthy's monster game, and Lorenzen has a 13.50 ERA in his past three starts. That ugly run shows up in his modest 2.43 pNERD, propped up mostly by tough luck rather than actual dominance—his swinging-strike and strike rates are both well below average. Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy fares a bit better at 3.64 pNERD, helped by his youth (age 25), though his stuff isn't missing many bats either. The Rockies' offense has quietly been productive—Jake McCarthy homered twice in a four-hit night Saturday, giving Colorado the lead with a 420-foot drive and adding his 13th of the season—but that punch is buried under the sport's worst pitching staff. St. Louis's tNERD (5.47) clears Colorado's dismal 1.29 mostly on the strength of a young, cheap roster, but with today's slate averaging 10.96 gNERD, this 6.42 lands firmly in "watch something else" territory.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Colorado Rockies

St. Louis Cardinals

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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