MLB: What to watch on August 10, 2026

• 10 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

I have plenty for a solid draft.

Milwaukee's best-in-baseball roster rolls into Petco Park behind one of the game's quietest aces, and this one has the numbers to back up the hype. At 17.29, the gNERD score sits well above today's average and near the top of the historical distribution, driven by two above-average lineups and a legitimately compelling pitching matchup. Henderson pairs a 9.85 pNERD with a 2.70 ERA, making his 11th appearance of the 2026 season, lights out for the Brewers since re-joining the rotation in July. His command profile is the real story — a 54.5% zone rate, 69.4% first-pitch-strike rate and 5.2% walk rate back up strong strikeout and swinging-strike marks, and the underlying xFIP suggests this isn't fluky run prevention. Mize, meanwhile, is still finding his footing in San Diego after struggling in his first outing as a Padre against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing nine hits and eight runs in just 3.1 innings — his 5.36 pNERD is respectable but he's clearly the lesser arm here. Both bullpens rank near the league's best by runs saved, and San Diego's broadcast ratings and Milwaukee's baserunning give this game extra juice on both sides of the ball. A legitimately great watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Casey Mize, San Diego Padres

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Tarik Skubal's Dodger Stadium debut is the headline here, and the numbers back up the hype. The reigning ace of the pitching staff, now wearing Dodger blue, makes his first Dodger Stadium start since joining the Dodgers, after allowing two runs in six innings last Tuesday in a tough-luck loss at Wrigley Field in his debut with the team. His 12.04 pNERD is comfortably above today's average and sits in rare territory historically, driven by elite whiff rates, a blistering fastball, and an xFIP- that suggests he's been every bit as good as his shiny ERA implies. Noah Cameron isn't just a sacrificial lamb, though — he's quietly been Kansas City's best story lately, having thrown 23 innings over his past three outings, including eight innings of two-hit, one-run baseball with nine strikeouts, and seven no-hit innings before that. The Dodgers' lineup and bullpen (both well above average) give LA a clear team-level edge, while Kansas City's bullpen has been a genuine liability. With a gNERD of 14.63, this ranks near the top of both today's slate and the broader historical range, making it one of the more watchable matchups on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

I'll proceed with the information gathered and write the summary now.

Andrew Painter's return from the wilderness is the real draw here, even if the results haven't caught up to the stuff yet. The Phillies' former top prospect, who blew out his elbow in 2023, finally debuted this spring, but a rocky 14-start stretch got him a 7.06 ERA and a 1-8 record, with the last of those outings a two-inning, six-run disaster against Miami that got him optioned down. He's since been retooling his command in the minors—locating in the zone and cutting down walks was the top priority—and his stuff was never the problem; his pNERD of 6.22 leans heavily on premium velocity (96.2 mph) and youth, with some bad luck actually working in his favor after some tough results. Hunter Dobbins counters for St. Louis with a tidy 5.57 pNERD built on quick pace and a solidly below-average xFIP-, quietly effective if unspectacular. Team-wise, both clubs are middling on offense but the Phillies bring an elite bullpen and baserunning edge, while the Cardinals' extreme youth and payroll thrift juice their tNERD. At 11.55, this gNERD sits a bit above the historical median—not a marquee slate-topper, but Painter's stuff-versus-command drama makes it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Hunter Dobbins, St. Louis Cardinals

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A middling gNERD score hides a genuinely lopsided divisional clash, with the Braves running away from a Mets team stuck in last place. Atlanta enters at 36-18 and Truist Park has been a fortress lately—the Braves are 8-0 in their last eight games as a home favorite—while New York limps in at 22-31 overall and a woeful 11-18 on the road. Juan Soto is reportedly day-to-day with a calf issue, which stings for a Mets lineup already missing punch, though Bo Bichette has quietly racked up 124 hits. Atlanta counters with Matt Olson's 34 homers and Ozzie Albies chipping in 19 more. On the mound, Christian Scott is the more interesting arm here, his mid-90s velocity and strong xFIP driving a solid 6.35 pNERD—clearly outpacing Bryce Elder's 4.77, whose fastball has dipped into the low-90s. Both team tNERDs sit in the middle of the pack, buoyed mainly by strong bullpens on both sides. Watch for Scott's stuff, but don't expect a nail-biter given how differently these two clubs are trending.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Christian Scott, New York Mets

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Texas Rangers, still clawing at a wild-card spot, head to Anaheim to face an Angels team playing out the string, and this one is more interesting than the standings gap suggests thanks to a genuinely sharp lefty-lefty pitching matchup. Reid Detmers is the headline act here: fresh off a career night in which he struck out a career-high 14 and allowed just one hit — a leadoff homer — over eight innings against the Rangers, and his pNERD of 7.55 backs that up, built on a strong xFIP- and youth. MacKenzie Gore isn't far behind at 6.50 pNERD, though he's shaking off rust after being activated from the paternity list, and his ugly history against the Angels (an 0-2 mark, including a 13-1 shellacking last month) is worth remembering even as his xFIP and FIP suggest he's pitched better than his 4.55 ERA. Texas brings real thump via Joc Pederson and Jake Burger and a tNERD edge (5.52 to Los Angeles's paltry 0.91), largely because the Angels' offense, baserunning, and defense all grade out poorly. The Rangers also carry a notably strong luck score, hinting they've underperformed and could be due for better results. Overall, a modestly above-average gNERD of 10.24 — the appeal here is mostly about watching two good young left-handed arms work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Colorado limps into the desert as one of the majors' worst offenses, but the pitching side has a bit of texture worth watching. Michael Soroka makes his first start since June 20, having landed on the IL with a strained left glute after emerging as one of Arizona's early-season bright spots; he's coming back after just one rehab outing, and his track record against Colorado is strong—he's beaten them in Colorado giving up two runs in 5 2/3 innings, then had a no-decision after giving up one run in six innings in his last meeting. His pNERD of 6.36 reflects genuinely tidy underlying numbers, headlined by a sharp xFIP-. Across from him, rookie Gabriel Hughes is still finding his footing—he struck out a career-high seven in his last outing, a no-decision against Tampa Bay in which he gave up four hits and five runs in 5 1/3 innings—but his peripherals are solid enough for a matching 6.28 pNERD. The team scores are the drag here: Colorado's putrid bat-and-glove profile drops its tNERD to 1.37, and even Arizona's modest 4.31 is unspectacular. Combined gNERD of 9.17 sits a shade below the historical average and today's slate average—watch for the pitching craft, not the offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

This one's a middling matchup on paper, but the Pete Alonso show alone might be worth the price of admission. The Orioles roll into Target Field having won their last outing while the Twins have dropped two straight, though Minnesota's been a solid 30-27 at home. Pete Alonso has been the engine of Baltimore's offense all season — 25 home runs, 75 RBI, and 111 hits give him the kind of production that changes games in a single swing. Minnesota counters with Brooks Lee quietly building a case as one of the more reliable run producers, with 17 homers and 61 RBI, while Kody Clemens adds 20 homers and 55 RBI. On the mound, Trevor Rogers carries real helium after a 2025 breakout that earned him Cy Young buzz, and his elite strike-throwing shows up again in his 5.60 pNERD. Dean Kremer's been quietly effective by xFIP but has gotten lucky results-wise. Both teams carry middling tNERDs — Baltimore's roster and bullpen give it the edge — pulling this to a modestly below-average 9.14 gNERD. Watchable, not urgent.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Playing out the string on a lost season, the Giants and Astros meet with both starters still writing their first chapters and a matchup so fresh it's literally the first meeting between these two teams all year. San Francisco enters having dropped to 20 games under .500 for the first time this season, and Houston is looking to make it four straight opponents to feast on a Giants club that's scuffling badly. Blade Tidwell, a 2025 midseason trade piece from the Mets who's bounced between the majors, Triple-A, and a shoulder injury, is making just his fourth career start and has never faced Houston — the kind of small-sample rookie-ish intrigue that's fun even without gaudy numbers (his pNERD reads zero simply because we don't have enough data yet). Tidwell, making just his fourth big-league start in his 14th overall appearance, has posted a 3.18 ERA. Hayden Wesneski counters with a similarly thin two-start sample. Neither team's tNERD stands out — Houston's 3.72 and San Francisco's 4.02 both sit below the historical average of 5.23 — leaving this one below-average on both counts. The resulting 8.87 gNERD lands under today's field average of 10.64, making this a game you can skip unless you're a completionist or simply enjoy watching a last-place team's slow-motion collapse.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Houston Astros

San Francisco Giants

Hayden Wesneski, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Boston's Sonny Gray comes to Rogers Centre riding a strikingly good season, and Jameson Taillon comes in mostly hoping nobody looks too closely at his numbers — a pairing that makes this game more about vibes than must-watch pitching drama. Gray sports a 14-2 record with a 2.78 ERA, while Taillon is stuck at 2-6 with a 5.96 ERA, and Gray's xFIP- backs up the eye test even if his fastball has lost some zip. Toronto, despite that lopsided pitching matchup, has quietly owned this series — this is the 10th meeting between these teams this season, with the Blue Jays holding a 6-3 edge — and Boston arrives having lost two in a row after a five-game road winning streak. The Red Sox tNERD (6.37) is solid, fueled by a strong bullpen and above-average fielding, while Toronto's putrid batting and barrel rates drag its tNERD down to 2.14, offset only by good glovework. Combined, the 8.39 gNERD sits below both the historic and today's averages — a fine game if it's on, but not one to clear your schedule for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

Jameson Taillon, Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

This is a mismatch masquerading as a game, but there's just enough noise around the A's to make it watchable for the wrong reasons. Tampa Bay rides a six-game winning streak into Sacramento, while Oakland is trying to build on something real after a nine-game skid that coincided with the firing of long-time general manager David Forst, the Athletics snapped the streak with a convincing win over Boston. That's a bigger storyline than anything happening on the mound. Freddy Peralta gives Tampa Bay a passable arm—decent whiff rate, solid pace, and a bit of positive regression coming his way per the underlying numbers—but nothing that screams must-see. Jacob Lopez is the drag here, his xFIP- ballooning his component score into negative territory, and a fastball sitting under 91 mph won't miss many bats. The Rays' offense is legitimately good on the basepaths and at the plate, though their barrel rate is ugly, while Oakland's roster-wide deficiencies (fielding, bullpen, baserunning) drag their tNERD near the bottom of today's slate. Skip it unless you're just curious whether the A's post-firing bounce has legs.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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