MLB: What to watch on August 11, 2026

• 11 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

This one's a genuine top-shelf watch: both teams and both bullpens are elite by NERD's measure, and Kyle Harrison is dealing. Unfortunately, our web searches turned up nothing specific and concrete on current storylines for this particular matchup, so the case here rests almost entirely on the underlying numbers—and those numbers are loud.

Harrison's 11.28 pNERD is comfortably above the 95th percentile historically, built on a 69.0 xFIP- mark that suggests real swing-and-miss stuff, backed by a quick pace and youth on his side. Buehler is the modest half of this pairing, scuffling by peripherals (his 101 xFIP- is dead league-average) but running a lucky +25 mark that's propping up results better than his stuff deserves—expect some correction toward mediocrity. Both lineups grade out virtually identically at tNERD readings near 9.6, among the best team scores you'll see in this dataset, thanks largely to bullpens that both rank near the top of the league in run prevention. Add San Diego's well-regarded broadcast booth, and this lands as one of today's best options and one of the better games you'll find on any given night.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions and the NERD scores.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Two aces with real velocity meeting in a dome that eats offense—this one's worth clearing your evening for, though the "ace" tag comes with an asterisk this season. Skenes still owns a gaudy pNERD, but he's been human lately: his 3.96 ERA is more than double his first two seasons, and against MLB's top team he allowed three runs on only two hits but issued four walks, including a rare four-pitch walk to a leadoff hitter. He's shrugging off the concern, noting his velocity has dipped but he insists he's healthy, joking reporters only ask about it after a bad outing. Historically he's owned Miami: Skenes has a lifetime 2.60 ERA against the Marlins in three starts with 26 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. Eury Pérez brings his own heat—his velocity generally averages 98 mph—and a strong home track record. The Marlins' tNERD is buoyed by cheap payroll, youth, and a bit of positive batted-luck regression coming, while Pittsburgh's fielding drags down an otherwise solid profile. With a gNERD near 17.5, this ranks near the top of both today's and the season's watchability charts—strikeouts and swing-and-miss stuff should carry the day even if both offenses are pedestrian.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Miami Marlins

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Two of the National League's better teams by underlying metrics collide in a game that outscores nearly everything else on the slate today. The Cubs, sitting atop the NL wild-card race, roll into Washington with the best pure talent on paper, and Shota Imanaga is quietly pitching like the ace this roster needed. Imanaga has allowed just 2 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, and over his last ten outings he's running a strong FIP while showing elite command — his 4.4% walk rate in that same period ranks sixth lowest among starters. His pNERD of 6.10 reflects a whiff-heavy, strike-throwing profile, well above the pack today. His opponent is officially TBD but expected to be Jake Irvin, who carries a 5.37 ERA and gets a pNERD of zero simply because we lack the data — not exactly a阴 marquee arm, but the Nationals' offense, paced by CJ Abrams, still has bite. Both lineups grade out strong on batting and baserunning, and both tNERDs land near the top of today's range, making this a legitimately well-rounded, watchable matchup even without a flashy pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Washington Nationals

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Good. The Yankees' offense provides the power, the two starters provide the swing-and-miss, and Seattle's own offensive slump adds an intriguing "can anyone score" subplot to a game that ranks near the top of the day's watchability scale. At 13.79, this gNERD sits comfortably above the historic median and above today's average, driven largely by an appealing pitching matchup.

Bryan Woo and Ryan Weathers both check in with pNERD scores near 8, well above the historic median, and the underlying data backs it up: Bryan Woo's 27 walks in 127.1 innings translate to a 1.91 BB/9, and his four-seam fastball sits at 95.8 mph, holding hitters to a .311 xwOBA. He's been trending well too, having pitched solidly in his last outing, overcoming control issues against Detroit to finally throw seven scoreless innings. Weathers, who struck out seven batters and allowed only one run in his Yankees debut against these same Mariners back in March, has been similarly sharp lately, tossing 18 scoreless innings while dominating tough White Sox and Cardinals lineups in his last two starts.

On the team side, the Yankees' 8.20 tNERD is buoyed by strong barrel and baserunning numbers, though Seattle's offense has gone cold — the Mariners are 3-5 in August and have scored more than four runs in only one of their eight games this month, which could make this one a low-scoring, pitcher's duel worth tuning in for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

New York Yankees

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

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Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

A strong-armed ace against a scrappy underdog with real playoff stakes attached — this one's worth carving out time for. Cristopher Sánchez brings a 9.97 pNERD into Busch Stadium, and the numbers back up the growing legend: he's an MLB-best 15-4, and over his current 5-0 stretch has turned in a 2.76 ERA with 37 strikeouts and 11 walks over 29 2/3 innings. His last start was shakier — he labored through five innings on 98 pitches, allowing two runs and nine baserunners — but his elite xFIP-, whiff rate, and strike-throwing still make him the headline act. Andre Pallante is a much more modest 4.34 pNERD arm, though he's quietly effective: he's allowed a combined three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings across his past three starts against the Reds, Cubs and Yankees. The stakes add spice — both clubs are chasing the NL Wild Card, with St. Louis starting the week 3½ games behind Philadelphia. Team NERDs are unremarkable and roughly even, but the pitching matchup and playoff race push this to a gNERD of 12.83, comfortably above the historic median and near today's slate average — a legitimately good watch, mostly because of the guy on the Philadelphia mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A solid pitching matchup with playoff-race stakes, even if neither ace is at their absolute best right now. McLean, the Mets' 24-year-old with an elite strikeout rate that suppresses baserunners and keeps Braves bats off rhythm, carries an 8.90 pNERD into Truist Park, though his last outing was rocky: during a five-run blowup in Cleveland, he continually fell behind in counts, most notably when he went 3-0 on Nathaniel Lowe prior to a key three-run homer. Pérez, at 35 and sitting at a modest 3.78 pNERD, has been steadier if unspectacular — his stuff is fringy (89.4 mph average) but he's a genuine run-suppression machine over 100.1 innings. Atlanta's bullpen and barrel-rate numbers edge out New York's, giving the Braves a slight tNERD advantage (5.82 to 5.41), though both bullpens rank well above average — worth noting New York just lost closer Devin Williams to a shoulder strain IL stint. The Mets arrive fresh off a 5-1 week against the NL East-leading Braves, adding some divisional bite. With a gNERD of 11.96, comfortably above the historical mean of 10.11, this one's a decent midweek watch rather than a must-see.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Two teams separated by a half-game in a jumbled AL Central race, with a pitching matchup that's better than the win-loss records suggest. Cleveland's Tanner Bibee brings a deceptive 4-11 mark to Comerica Park—his "4-11 record looks terrible, but his 3.85 ERA and 1.13 WHIP tell a different story" of an offense that keeps abandoning him, and he's historically feasted on Detroit, sitting 5-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Tigers. Drew Anderson, working in a piecemeal role since sliding into the rotation, owns the sneakier peripheral numbers—his 85 xFIP- is legitimately excellent, pushing his pNERD to 7.59, tops in this game. The Tigers arrive hot, having gone 7-3 with a strong finish to a West Coast trip, while Cleveland is scuffling and shorthanded with a couple relievers out. tNERD favors Cleveland (7.23) on youth, payroll efficiency and baserunning, while Detroit's 4.87 leans on raw power and barrel rate. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 11.63—comfortably above the historical median and right around today's average, making this a solid, if not spectacular, watch, propped up more by playoff-race stakes than by star power.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Dylan Cease is the story here, and Rogers Centre gives him a good stage for it. This is a lopsided pNERD matchup, with Cease sitting well above today's average pitcher score thanks to elite strikeout stuff, mid-90s-plus velocity, and an xFIP- of just 63 that suggests his 2.28 ERA is legitimate rather than lucky. He's been especially nasty against Boston this year, the last time he faced the Red Sox, he pitched a one-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts, and he's 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in three starts against Boston this season. Sandoval, by contrast, is a league-average arm at best, with pace and command marks dragging his score down. On the team side, Boston's tNERD comfortably outpaces Toronto's punchless, bottom-of-the-barrel offense, though the Jays' plus glovework partially compensates. Boston arrives having dropped three in a row following a 2-1 road loss to the Blue Jays on Monday, and the storyline to watch is catcher Adley Rutschman, expected to be activated for his team debut after being out since mid-July with left wrist inflammation following a trade-deadline deal with Baltimore. Overall, a game elevated mainly by one dominant arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Sean Burke chasing strikeouts leads the White Sox rotation while the AL Central lead sits on his shoulders, and Nick Lodolo returns from a blister that just won't quit — that's plenty of intrigue for a Tuesday matinee-turned-nightcap. This one lands squarely in the middle of the pack, gNERD-wise (10.71 against a historical average of 10.11, though a touch below today's 10.91 slate average), with the appeal split unevenly between the two rotations.

Burke is the headline act here: his 6.62 pNERD is well above both the historic and today's averages, built on a strong strikeout rate (10.1 K/9) and White Sox pitchers have a collective 4.12 ERA, which ranks eighth in the AL — Burke himself has been the exception. He's coming off a rough outing where he fell to 0-2 in his last three outings, allowing two runs on five hits in 4⅓ innings, saying "the breaking balls weren't really there." Lodolo is the wild card: this is his first start since July 11, a return from the injured list after a blister, and pitchers coming off a month away are often rusty and on a limited pitch count, which drags his pNERD down to a modest 1.64. The White Sox own the better team profile too (7.93 tNERD, young and cheap), while the last-place Reds bring middling offense and a shaky bullpen. Watch for Burke's stuff, not for length from Lodolo.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago White Sox

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Snell's coming off elbow surgery and hasn't pitched in three months, so the Dodgers' best storyline tonight is basically a live bullpen session dressed up as a start. This one's more about intrigue than polish—Blake Snell returns from a long layoff, and nobody, including the numbers, really knows what to expect. The Dodgers' return date has been pushed multiple times, and with no meaningful track record this season (just a handful of rehab innings), his pNERD sits at zero simply because we don't have anything to grade him on—watch for rust, not results. Wacha, by contrast, has quietly been Kansas City's most dependable arm this year, and his pNERD of 3.89 (roughly average) reflects a pitcher who pounds the zone and works fast, even if the whiff totals are thin. Team-wise this is lopsided: the Dodgers' 8.48 tNERD—built on strong batting, barrel rate, and fielding—dwarfs Kansas City's 2.73, dragged down hard by a bullpen that's been one of the sport's worst. The Royals are also mired in a five-game road skid and a sub-.300 road OBP, which doesn't inspire much optimism for a shootout. Overall gNERD of 10.05 lands almost exactly at the historical median—watchable mostly for the Snell subplot, not the final score.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

The Giants opponent looks to be Carson Whisenhunt, per the probable pitchers list.

Skip this one unless you're an Astros completist or a masochist for last-place-team baseball, because the gNERD math and the standings agree the drama here is limited. Houston (61-59, leading the AL West) rolls into Oracle Park to face a Giants club that has dropped three straight and gone 2-8 over its last ten, and the tNERD scores for both sides sit well below average, weighed down by shaky bullpens and thin baserunning value on both rosters. Hunter Brown gives this game its only real juice: he's through 11 starts, owns a 3.53 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, giving the Astros a reliable foundation at the beginning of the game, generally limiting baserunners and preventing rallies from turning into crooked numbers. His pNERD of 4.07 is middling but respectable, buoyed by mid-90s velocity and a strong xFIP-, though his below-average strike rate keeps him from truly separating himself. San Francisco counters with Carson Whisenhunt, whose numbers weren't detailed enough to rate — worth watching mostly to see if he can right a rough season. With a gNERD of 8.24, sitting below both the historical and today's averages, this one's a lineup-card afterthought rather than a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Houston Astros

San Francisco Giants

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Rays first, Athletics last in their respective divisions, and this is exactly the kind of mismatch the NERD scores were built to flag, so temper your expectations accordingly. Tampa Bay's Nick Martinez has quietly been excellent, and the Athletics are reeling.

Martinez enters this start on a strong run: he's allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts made this season, and sits at 11–3 with a 2.65 ERA (9th in MLB), a 1.10 WHIP and 73 strikeouts in 129 innings pitched. His pNERD of 2.82 undersells that a bit, dinged by modest strikeout stuff, but he's been effective nonetheless. Mason Barnett, on the other hand, is still finding his footing as a 25-year-old with a 5.56 ERA in two 2026 starts, having allowed five earned runs across 4.1 innings in his most recent outing. His pNERD (3.71) gets a lift from a lively fastball and positive luck, suggesting some better days ahead. As for the teams, Tampa Bay's tNERD (5.49) reflects a well-rounded, slightly lucky roster, while Oakland's 2.39 reflects a last-place club that's been dreadful lately, having lost ten of the team's last twelve games. The 7.21 gNERD sits below both the historic and today's averages — watchable if you like underdog pitching duels, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Mason Barnett, Athletics

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

This one's a mismatch on paper and a rebuild-watch in practice, with the Angels' brutal season doing most of the talking. The Angels stumble into this one at 45-73, a full 14 games worse than Texas's middling 59-59, and it shows across the board — LA's offense, baserunning, and defense are all comfortably below-average, dragging their tNERD down to a paltry 0.99, among the weakest team scores you'll find on the slate today. Texas isn't exactly thrilling either, but a solid bullpen and some positive batted-luck give the Rangers a respectable 5.36 tNERD, with actual underlying performance suggesting they've been a bit better than their .500 record indicates.

The pitching matchup doesn't add much shine: Cody Bradford's stat line is a blank slate here, offering no real read on what to expect, while 23-year-old Ryan Johnson brings youth and a fast pace but middling stuff — his elevated xFIP- signals he's been getting hit harder than a rookie fastball should allow, though his outperforming "luck" figure hints his results have actually been better than deserved. Add it up and you get a 6.94 gNERD, well below today's 10.91 average and the historical mean near 10, making this one mostly for Rangers completists or Angels fans checking in out of obligation.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

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Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

This is a middling matchup elevated only by playoff desperation, not by pitching artistry. The gNERD of 6.77 sits well below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate average (10.91), so temper expectations for fireworks.

The stakes, though, are real: Baltimore sits 15.5 games back in the division but is 1.5 games behind the third wild card spot, a position shared with Minnesota, and cannot afford to drop ground against a team it's directly chasing. That urgency follows a rough Monday, when Dean Kremer held the Orioles to one hit over seven innings in a 9-5 Twins win, Baltimore's fourth loss in five games.

On the mound, neither Brandon Young (3.69 pNERD) nor Bailey Ober (2.12 pNERD) is showing off; both grade below the 25th percentile for pitchers today. Ober is 7-3 with a 4.45 ERA but a tidy 1.22 WHIP, and has strung together back-to-back quality starts, including six shutout-adjacent innings at Kansas City on August 6. Both offenses carry modest batting runs, and shaky bullpens and fielding drag both tNERDs down—Minnesota's especially, at a below-average 2.78. Watch if you're invested in the wild card race; otherwise, there are flashier options tonight.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

This is a game between two bad teams where the biggest storyline is the game before it. The Rockies, mired in a lost season at 46-73, got run out of Chase Field 9-0 the night before, with Nolan Arenado hitting a grand slam off his former club — his 18th homer of the year — and the D-backs' bullpen barely breaking a sweat. That result colors the watchability here more than any NERD number does: Arizona's tNERD (4.51) edges Colorado's (1.39) thanks to solid baserunning and fielding, but neither offense is doing much of note, and both club's overall gNERD of 2.37 sits near the bottom of both the historic and today's ranges. The pitching matchup doesn't help. Sugano, in just his second MLB season after a long, decorated run in Japan, was a back-end starter for Baltimore last year before joining Colorado, and his xFIP-driven components are all negative. Mitch Bratt, a 22-year-old lefty who beat out Kohl Drake for the final rotation spot as Soroka made his way back, has flashed some promise — allowing just 1 run in 12 innings against Cleveland and San Diego — but his shaky command numbers still leave him with the lowest pNERD in the pool. Unless you're deeply invested in Chase Field sightlines, this one's skippable.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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