MLB: What to watch on August 12, 2026

• 12 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Both teams enter this one with something to prove, and a rookie lefty getting thrown to the wolves against a red-hot Cubs lineup adds some intrigue to an otherwise unremarkable pitching matchup. Chicago has been one of the better stories in baseball lately, riding an 8-2 stretch over their last ten games while sitting comfortably in wild-card position, and both the Cubs' offense (elite fielding and baserunning) and the Nationals' surprisingly potent attack (led by CJ Abrams' power) fuel strong tNERD marks near the top of today's slate. The real hook is Jackson Kent's debut: the Nationals' top lefty prospect posted a 2.35 ERA at Double-A before his strikeout rate dropped and walk rate climbed after a promotion to Triple-A. He'll face a Cubs team that reportedly mashes left-handed pitching, which is either a brutal welcome to the majors or a chance for early heroics. David Peterson, by contrast, is a solid-not-spectacular presence — his 4.84 pNERD is middling, buoyed mostly by some bad luck that suggests better results ahead. With a 14.70 gNERD, this game ranks near the top of today's games and comfortably above the historical average, thanks far more to lineups and stakes than to frontline arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Washington Nationals

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

Jackson Kent, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

This one's got playoff stakes and quietly excellent pitcher and team profiles, even if the two starters' NERD scores tell very different stories. The Padres, clinging to the fringes of the NL wild-card race, are hosting the sport's best record-holders in Milwaukee, and both clubs bring loaded bullpens and above-average NERD marks to the table—Milwaukee's 9.61 and San Diego's 9.84 are both comfortably above the historical mean, and their combined 13.04 gNERD sits well above today's 10.35 average. On the mound, Dustin May, a deadline pickup from St. Louis, brings mid-90s heat and a tidy xFIP-, though his road numbers this year have been rough. Robbie Ray, San Diego's own deadline addition from the Giants, has had an uneven Padres debut but reportedly settled into better form since, though his NERD score (0.97) reflects underlying command issues with elevated walk rates. May faced the Padres twice already this year as a Cardinal, adding a little familiarity to the mix. Watch for the bullpens and lineups to carry this one more than the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

Wheeler and Leahy take the mound in a series rubber match with real playoff stakes attached — this one's worth your afternoon. The Phillies are clinging to a National League Wild Card spot, and Wheeler has been the engine of their second-half surge; Zack Wheeler has been on a bit of a roller coaster since the All-Star break, and he'll take the ball with a chance to stabilize things as the Phillies continue to fight for a National League Wild Card spot. His pNERD of 9.01 — well above today's field average of 4.66 — is built on elite whiff and contact-suppression skills; his xFIP- and swinging-strike rates both grade out as some of the best marks on the slate. Across town, Leahy isn't just a fifth-starter innings-eater anymore: St. Louis counters with Kyle Leahy, who has quietly rounded into form, carrying a 3.45 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, striking out 21 percent while walking seven and a half percent. In his past four starts Leahy has posted a 2.35 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, numbers that have quietly made this a legitimate pitching duel rather than a mismatch. Both offenses rank near the bottom of the league in production, so don't expect fireworks — this is a game to watch for pitching craft, not crooked scoreboards. The gNERD of 12.54 sits comfortably above the historical average (10.11) and today's average (10.35), making it one of the better-graded games on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Good, the losing streak angle is solid. Let me write the summary now.

A rebuilding Mariners team riding a five-game skid rolls into the Bronx, and while the underlying pitching matchup has some juice, don't expect fireworks from the lineups. Seattle has scored just five runs across that five-game losing streak and nine over its last seven, while the Yankees' offense is also cold with its top power bats banged up. The pitching, though, is the story: Bryce Miller brings a 7.19 pNERD built on a stingy xFIP-, elite strike rate, and mid-90s heat, and reporting on his split-finger's 28.5% whiff rate and a walk rate that borders on absurd — a 0.95 WHIP and just 15 free passes in 79 innings — explains why he's tough to work an inning against. Will Warren counters with a solid 5.47 pNERD, helped by a bit of positive luck suggesting his 4.18 ERA overstates how hittable he's actually been. Yankees' tNERD (8.07) dwarfs Seattle's anemic 2.82, driven by New York's barrel rate and clean glovework against a Mariners defense that's been a genuine liability. At 11.78, the gNERD lands solidly above average for today's slate — worth catching for the pitching duel, if not the lineups.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

New York Yankees

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Pittsburgh's in a rut and Miami's quietly building the more entertaining roster, but this game leans on two mid-tier arms rather than star power to make its case. The Pirates have lost six of their last seven games, and the malaise runs deeper than the standings — even ace Paul Skenes got a quick hook in a 2-0 shutout loss the night before this one, part of a stretch that's included four shutouts since the All-Star break. Carmen Mlodzinski takes the ball for Pittsburgh with modest scores across the board, but he pairs a low home-run rate with a nasty splitter that generates a strong whiff rate, giving him a real edge over Miami's Janson Junk, who's been homer-prone and comes with the lower pNERD of the two. Neither pitcher grades out as a marquee arm, but Junk's tendency to work deep counts and issue traffic keeps things unpredictable. The Marlins are the more interesting team on paper, with a tNERD comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, buoyed by strong baserunning, a young, inexpensive roster, and some positive regression-suggesting luck. With Pittsburgh missing O'Hearn, Cruz, and Keller to injury, Miami's lineup depth gives this one a slight watchability edge, but it's a solidly middle-of-the-pack game rather than a must-see.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Miami Marlins

Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics, 12:05p

Summary

I have plenty to work with. Let me write the summary now.

Watch this one for Drew Rasmussen dominating a punchless Oakland lineup, not for any real drama—the A's are in freefall and the Rays are rolling. Rasmussen brings a tidy 8.48 pNERD into West Sacramento, backed by an xFIP- of 75 and mid-90s velocity, and he's coming off a start for Tampa Bay's finale after leading the Rays' pitching staff with a 2.75 ERA, making it no easy task for the A's bats to inflict damage. Jack Perkins counters with a respectable 6.39 pNERD on the stuff metrics, but the results haven't matched—he enters at 2-8 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, and his outsized "luck" score suggests some regression relief may be overdue, though not enough to save this Oakland club. The Rays (5.68 tNERD) are hot, having just blown out the A's 12-4 behind a two-run blast from Junior Caminero, his 35th homer, tying him for the league lead, while the Athletics (2.22 tNERD) are mired in a seven-game home skid and missing key bats like Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers to injury. At 11.39, the gNERD sits a bit above average—worth a look for the pitching matchup, not the drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Jack Perkins, Athletics

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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Not a marquee matchup, but there's a decent floor here thanks to two solid arms and a Blue Jays team that's underperforming its own talent. Boston limps into Toronto on a four-game losing streak, though the underlying numbers - Boston rolls into Rogers Centre on a four-game losing streak, but the underlying numbers over the last 10 games tell a different story: a .276 team average and a plus-26 run differential - suggest the Sox are better than their recent record. Suarez has been battling through short outings since returning from the IL, laboring through three innings against the White Sox last week and hasn't quite bounced back, limited to 4.0 and 4.2 innings in recent starts, though his xFIP still grades out strong. Soriano brings mid-90s velocity and a knuckle-curve that generates a 43.3% whiff rate that can shut down stretches of any lineup, and his pNERD actually edges Suarez's here. Toronto's offense is the drag on this one - bottom-of-the-barrel exit velocity and baserunning - but a plus fielding unit and bullpen give it just enough juice to keep this from being a total snooze. A middling-to-decent watch, elevated mostly by the pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

I have enough to write a solid summary now.

A middling pitching matchup between two clubs going nowhere fast, but the series opener already proved these teams can produce chaos. Cincinnati stole game one of this set in extra innings after trailing by three in the eighth, with Elly De La Cruz driving in the winning run with a sacrifice fly in the top of the 10th as the Reds snapped a three-game skid with a 5-4 comeback win over the Chicago White Sox. Rhett Lowder and Luis Castillo, meanwhile, are basically statistical twins right now — "struggling mid-rotation arms producing nearly identical contact and run-prevention outcomes" with near-matching ERAs and WHIPs. Castillo, a former Red, gets the nod for pNERD (5.21) thanks to solid velocity and strike-throwing, though his 29-run "luck" figure suggests his results should actually get worse, not better. Lowder's 3.90 pNERD is unspectacular but respectable for a 24-year-old finding his footing. Team-wise, the White Sox's tNERD (7.82) benefits from a young, affordable roster and a strong bullpen, while Cincinnati's dreadful batting runs drag its tNERD down to 5.13 despite a healthy barrel rate. The 11.03 gNERD lands right around today's average — not a must-watch, but not a total pass either, especially if the offense-friendly humidity forecast holds up.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago White Sox

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Luis Castillo, Chicago White Sox

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Atlanta's blowing the doors off the NL East race while the Mets are stuck in last place, but this rubber match still has juice thanks to two pitchers trending in opposite directions. Zac Thornton, the Mets' rookie lefty, has quietly been terrific — Thornton put up his third scoreless start in his last five against the Pirates on Friday, allowing four hits and two walks over five innings pitched — and he's carrying a 3-2 record and 2.52 ERA into Truist Park, though the model has zero data on him yet (pNERD of 0.00 is a placeholder, not a verdict). Tyler Mahle, freshly acquired from San Francisco, has been shakier overall but flashed his ceiling in his Atlanta debut, when Mahle pitched six scoreless innings in his Atlanta debut against the Yankees after being acquired ahead of the trade deadline from San Francisco; his 4.95 pNERD reflects solid peripherals undercut by bad luck that projects better days ahead. The Braves' offense, paced by Olson and Acuña, gives Atlanta the edge on paper, and their bullpen and barrel rates push their tNERD past the Mets'. Overall, a 10.64 gNERD sits right around today's average — not a must-watch, but a perfectly reasonable way to spend three hours, especially if Thornton's emergence is real.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A middling gNERD score masks a genuinely fun pitching story: an ace returning from Japan facing a former Astros workhorse trying to rediscover his groove in a new uniform. Foster Griffin's tale is the headline here — he returned from a three-year stint in Japan and earned a spot on the National League All-Star roster by posting a 10-2 record and 2.77 ERA before the break, then Cleveland acquired Griffin from Washington just before the trade deadline. His pNERD of 5.84 reflects a genuinely stingy approach, built on solid command rather than velocity. Across the mound, Framber Valdez was brought to Detroit to form an imposing 1-2 punch with Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation, but Skubal now is with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Valdez struggled earlier in the season but has returned to his old form in his past two starts — a modest 3.27 pNERD that undersells his recent stretch. Team-wise, Cleveland's 7.49 tNERD (today's range: 0.92–10.11) is buoyed by youth and thrift, while Detroit's 4.35 lags behind. With a 10.48 gNERD sitting almost exactly at the historical average, this is a watchable-but-not-essential ballgame, elevated mainly by the pitchers' backstories rather than raw stuff.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins, 10:40a

Summary

Both the Orioles and Twins are hovering below .500, but this rubber match still has a little juice thanks to the pitching matchup and the classic Twins bullpen luck factor turning against them. Neither team is playoff-bound, and the tNERD scores reflect that mediocrity—Baltimore's 5.28 is middling and Minnesota's 2.84 is well below average, dragged down by shaky baserunning and fielding. But the pitching duel is the story: Zebby Matthews carries the highest pNERD here at 6.17, buoyed by his youth and quick pace, even though his surface numbers have been ugly lately—Matthews has really struggled on the mound in the last month, posting a 7.28 ERA and allowing 16 walks in 29.2 innings since July 1. That gap between his rough results and his more forgiving xFIP is exactly the kind of "underperforming his skill" scenario NERD likes to flag, and his 23.0 luck figure backs that up. Shane Baz, meanwhile, brings mid-90s velocity but has been quietly better than his record suggests: over his last 12 starts Baz has a 3.13 ERA and 2.71 FIP, yet the Orioles have only won three of those games. At a combined gNERD of 9.18—below today's average of 10.35—this is a watchable but not must-see afternoon, elevated mostly by two pitchers who deserve better run support than they're getting.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

A bullpen-game curiosity in a fairly middling matchup, with the entertainment value hinging entirely on stuff we can't yet quantify. The Astros send left-hander Bryan King, who's 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 40 strikeouts this year — notable mostly because King has spent most of his career as a reliever, so watch to see how the Astros manage his workload if he's stretched out as an opener. The Giants counter with a TBD arm, so no data means no pNERD read on either side of this one, and the average pitcher score of 5.00 is essentially a placeholder rather than a real signal. Team-wise, neither club brings much juice: Houston's 3.48 tNERD is dragged down by shaky baserunning and a middling bullpen, while San Francisco's 4.01 mark is propped up almost entirely by broadcast appeal and a Giants offense that's been unlucky enough to expect some positive regression. The 8.74 gNERD lands below the historical average of 10.11 and near the bottom of today's slate, so this is one to catch only if you're already tuned into Oracle Park.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Houston Astros

San Francisco Giants

Bryan King, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Good, I have plenty to work with. Now let me write the summary.

A last-place club limping through a get-right series against a Dodgers team that's lost eight of nine — this one's more about narrative wreckage than crisp baseball. The Dodgers, still atop the NL West but watching a once-11-game cushion shrink to 7.5, have scored a measly 3.22 runs a game over their last nine and are hosting Kansas City hoping to snap out of it, while the Royals arrive at 49-72 having dropped three straight of their own. On the mound, Eric Lauer is walking a tightrope, coming off a start where he allowed six runs on 11 hits in four innings against the Cubs, and his xFIP- north of 130 backs up the ugly peripherals behind that 4.89 ERA — his -0.20 pNERD is barely above replacement-level dullness. Daniel Lynch IV, by contrast, has quietly posted a tidy 2.45 ERA and drags a respectable 5.12 pNERD into Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers' 8.45 tNERD, boosted by strong batting and fielding marks, makes them one of the more watchable rosters even in a slump, but Kansas City's battered bullpen (a brutal -2.59 component) drags the gNERD to 7.94 — below both the historical and today's averages. Watch if you like counterprogramming to a contender's malaise; skip if you want crisp pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

Eric Lauer, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 7:10p

Summary

Skip a bit of the market data, focus on writing the summary now.

This one's a bottom-of-the-standings mismatch that even a rookie's electric arm can't fully rescue. The Rangers, sitting comfortably at .500 and holding a solid 5.46 tNERD, roll into Anaheim to face an Angels club that's cratering at 46-74 and posting a paltry 0.92 tNERD, driven by ugly marks in batting, baserunning, and fielding runs. George Klassen made his MLB debut in 2026, but the promise from his 0.71 ERA and 57 strikeouts across 38.0 innings in the minors hasn't yet translated to the majors — he's 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and there's no statistical profile yet to grade him on. Cal Quantrill isn't picking up the slack either; his xFIP- sits well below average, and shaky whiff and strike rates drag his pNERD down to a forgettable 0.35. The Rangers' one genuine intrigue is a 1.90 luck component suggesting they've actually been underperforming their run environment, so don't be shocked if this offense finally breaks out against a Halos staff that's gone 23-54 in games when they have given up a home run. With a combined gNERD of 5.86 — well below the day's 10.35 average — this is one to skip unless AL West standings are your thing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers

George Klassen, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

Colorado's a last-place club playing out the string, Arizona's a wild-card hopeful chasing the Dodgers, and neither starter gives you much reason to set a reminder. This one grades out at 5.26 gNERD, well below the historical median of roughly 10 and near the bottom of today's slate, and the underlying numbers explain why: it's mostly a tale of two mediocre-to-bad rotations. Arizona is 64-56 and holds a National League wild-card spot, chasing the Dodgers in the NL West, while Colorado is 46-73, buried in the division and far weaker away from Coors Field, where its offense loses much of its altitude boost. Feltner (pNERD 2.45) is a homer-prone innings-eater with a bloated xFIP-, and over 17 starts he carries a 5.71 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, striking out just 17 percent while walking nine percent and allowing two home runs per nine. Kelly (pNERD 1.75) isn't much better, and his habit of exiting around the fifth inning hands the outcome to the bullpen earlier than you'd like. Arizona's tNERD (4.84) at least gets a boost from strong baserunning and fielding, but Colorado's offense (tNERD 1.48) is thin outside altitude. Colorado did flash some life, grinding out a 3-2 win Tuesday after dropping the opener 9-0 — proof a bad team can still hang around, but not much of a reason to prioritize this one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

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