MLB: What to watch on August 13, 2026

• 13 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Two of baseball's best teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, and this game brings a genuine second-half breakout arm in a park built to reward it. The Brewers hold a one-game edge over the Dodgers for the NL's No. 1 seed, and this series opener carries real stakes as both clubs jostle for October positioning. Roki Sasaki has quietly turned his season around; in his four starts since the All-Star break, Sasaki is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 24 innings, and his velocity and swinging-strike rate both grade out well above average, backing his pNERD score near the top of today's slate. Milwaukee counters with rookie lefty Shane Drohan, who has been up-and-down since rejoining the rotation but still brings a respectable strikeout arsenal and solid peripherals. Both lineups carry real thump — the Dodgers rank near the top in barrel rate and batting runs, while Milwaukee complements a deep bullpen with elite baserunning — giving this game a well-rounded case for your attention. With a gNERD of 16.80, well above the historical average and near the top of today's games, this is one of the more watchable matchups on the board, blending playoff stakes, a red-hot young starter, and two lineups capable of turning a quiet night into fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

A high-scoring, high-NERD series finale that pits a red-hot Cubs offense against a Nationals team that can hit but can't stop anyone. With a gNERD of 16.23, this one sits near the top of the historic distribution (95th percentile is 14.76) and near the top of today's slate too. The Cubs bring baseball's best tNERD-driving formula lately — the Cubs' offense is simply on another level right now, having scored 30 runs across their last three games and owning the highest wRC+ in baseball — while Washington's bats aren't bad either, but the Nationals' bullpen has been a particular sore spot with a 4.84 ERA and several spectacular meltdowns in 2026. On the mound, Cavalli is the real story: the 27-year-old right-hander has strung together six consecutive quality starts, posting a 2.75 ERA and a tidy 1.08 WHIP with a 36-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, backing his strong 7.34 pNERD built on plus velocity and a sharp xFIP. Gausman, fresh off tying a season-high seven innings, allowing just two earned runs and four strikeouts in his Cubs debut, is no slouch either. Two good lineups, a shaky bullpen, and a legitimately live arm in Cavalli make this worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Washington Nationals

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins, 10:10a

Summary

Ashcraft is an All-Star this year, so I have enough color for the summary. Let me write it.

A legit ace matchup makes this the day's best watch on paper, and the storylines only sweeten it. Braxton Ashcraft brings a 97 mph fastball and the best pitcher NERD score in today's slate, and his low walk rate and .288 xwOBA allowed give him the skills to retire Miami efficiently, even though he's coming off a frustrating game against the Milwaukee Brewers in which he gave up four hits and four earned runs in five innings. Tyler Phillips is a journeyman reliever-turned-starter—he's been a reliever the majority of his appearances but has made 11 straight starts—and his modest pNERD reflects an unspectacular profile, though his strong strikeout stuff keeps him in the picture. The Marlins carry the more compelling team profile, with a young, cheap roster and baserunning value; their tNERD gets a boost from positive batting luck, suggesting their offense could keep humming a bit before regressing. Pittsburgh's fielding is genuinely bad, dragging down an otherwise fine team score. With a gNERD near the top of today's games and comfortably above the historical average, plus Pittsburgh limping into this one at just 1-7 since the trade deadline while Miami's won four straight and eyes a wild-card spot, there's actual stakes here too.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Miami Marlins

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 7:07p

Summary

A 38-year-old ace still throwing 97, a rookie fireballer with a golden arm, and two lineups that couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat—this one's about the arms, not the bats. DeGrom brings a 10.66 pNERD—well above today's average—built on a filthy swinging-strike rate and velocity that shouldn't exist for a man his age; he's fresh off allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits over 5 innings against Baltimore, walking 1 and striking out 9. Oddly, he's never won at Angel Stadium, going 0-2 with a 7.79 ERA in four career starts there, so there's a curiosity angle even against a last-place club. Ureña counters with a strong 6.72 pNERD, mostly velocity (97.7 mph) and youthful upside at 22. Team-wise, this is where things sag: the Angels' 1.03 tNERD is near the bottom of today's slate, dragged down by poor batting, baserunning, and fielding runs, while Texas's 5.50 gets a boost mostly from positive regression-luck rather than authentic quality. The Rangers are clinging to a wild-card spot and playing shorthanded with Eovaldi out, adding some late-season stakes. Overall gNERD of 11.96 sits comfortably above the historical average—watch for the pitching, not the offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

A rubber match with a legit ace on the mound and a Tigers lineup missing its best hitter — this one's worth your evening. Parker Messick has been quietly excellent for Cleveland, and his pNERD of 7.94 backs it up: he pairs a tidy xFIP- of 83 with a young age and notably brisk pace, all traits that make for crisp, watchable starts. Messick hasn't given up more than two runs in any of his outings since the end of June, and he gets the start on the heels of a superb six-game stretch, putting up a 1.77 ERA and 3.61 FIP over his last 35 2/3 innings since July. Across the mound, Keider Montero is filling a rotation spot vacated by the Skubal/Mize deadline deals, and his results have been uneven — he held Oakland scoreless over six innings before allowing five runs, including two homers, in his very next start. Detroit will also be shorthanded, having placed All-Star left fielder Riley Greene on the injured list after a hamstring injury. Cleveland's tNERD (7.73) edges out Detroit's (4.27), thanks largely to a younger, thriftier roster, and the 11.79 gNERD lands comfortably above the historical median — a solid, if not spectacular, pick for the day.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

A crisp late-season pitching matchup at Yankee Stadium that's a step above your average Thursday, with Seattle's Logan Gilbert bringing real swing-and-miss stuff against a Yankees lineup still missing Aaron Judge. The gNERD of 11.40 sits a bit above the historical median, driven almost entirely by New York's tNERD (8.27), which ranks well above average thanks to a strong barrel rate and solid all-around roster construction; Seattle's offense, by contrast, is scuffling, and its tNERD of 2.86 reflects rough fielding and baserunning numbers. On the mound, Gilbert is the standout, posting a strong pNERD of 7.27 on the back of excellent whiff rates and a 96-plus mph fastball, while Fried had his best outing since returning from the injured list on July 22, logging 7 Ks while allowing 3 hits and 0 ERs in 6.1 IP against his former Atlanta club. Fried's stuff still grades out well by xFIP despite a lighter pNERD (4.41), and the Yankees are still missing their best power bat in Aaron Judge, who has a rib stress fracture, which tempers New York's offensive punch even with home-field advantage.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

New York Yankees

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins, 4:30p

Summary

This one's got more novelty than watchability, and the venue is doing most of the heavy lifting. The Phillies and Twins meet for the Field of Dreams Game in Dyersville, Iowa, and the cornfield backdrop is genuinely the best reason to tune in given the modest 10.23 gNERD, which sits almost exactly at the historical median and well below today's slate average of 12.70.

Aaron Nola isn't inspiring much confidence lately: he's carrying a right knee contusion from August 8 after taking a Jesús Sánchez line drive off his leg, and enters with a 3-9 record, 5.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. His pNERD of 5.24 is roughly league-average, buoyed almost entirely by a lucky ERA that's overachieving his xFIP. Taj Bradley is the more interesting arm here, sitting at 6.83 pNERD thanks to his 97 mph heat and youth, and he's been the AL's quietly steady option, coming off three earned runs and five hits in five innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers. Neither offense is dazzling — the Twins' 2.86 tNERD is dragged down by shaky baserunning and fielding, while Philadelphia's lineup leans on Schwarber's power binge to offset a banged-up Harper. Watch for the scenery, not the stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Minnesota Twins

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox, 10:10a

Summary

Below-average pitching and a middling gNERD score make this one skippable unless you just like White Sox offense fireworks against a shaky Reds staff. This is the rubber match of a series the two teams have split, with Chicago having just blanked Cincinnati 5-0 behind Luis Castillo's ten-strikeout outing, and the finale even got its first pitch bumped up earlier due to rain in the forecast.

Neither starter inspires much confidence analytically. Abbott's 17 home runs allowed in 128.2 innings is nearly double Martin's rate in comparable innings, pointing to a process problem that clean ERAs tend to obscure. His 2.25 pNERD reflects a below-average whiff rate and strike-throwing, though he's still just 27. Martin, whose 5.13 pNERD is more respectable, has cratered lately — the 29-year-old is beginning to fall apart, posting a sky-high 7.80 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over his last seven appearances — though his underlying xFIP- of 95 suggests some positive regression is coming. The lineups compensate somewhat: Chicago's tNERD of 7.91 is buoyed by a young, cheap roster and a strong bullpen, while the Reds rank 27th in runs scored and 30th in batting average, though they've still managed the sixth-most homers in baseball. Today's gNERD of 10.05 sits almost exactly at the historical median, and well below today's slate average near 12.7 — background noise rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago White Sox

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Boston's collapse meets a fading legend, but the real must-watch here is a 23-year-old lefty quietly having a special summer. Payton Tolle brings by far the best arm on the mound today, and his pNERD of 10.38 — miles above Scherzer's 0.74 — tells the story before a pitch is thrown. Tolle is 7-6 in 19 starts with a 3.20 ERA in 107 innings with 124 strikeouts to just 29 walks, and he's 2-0 in August, allowing just three earned runs in 12 innings against the Dodgers and Athletics. There's a nice generational wrinkle too: Tolle grew up watching Scherzer as the prototype of pitching "competitive bulldog," and now gets to face him with interim manager Chad Tracy trying to snap a five-game losing streak for a Red Sox club that had been red-hot in July. Scherzer, meanwhile, is scuffling — his xFIP- sits well above average and he's been limited to about 80-85 pitches per start amid multiple IL stints this year. Toronto's lineup (tNERD 2.24) is thin on power, so don't expect much offense — this is a pitching-story game more than a slugfest, landing near the middle of today's slate for watchability.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

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  MLB: What to watch on August 12, 2026