MLB: What to watch on August 14, 2026

• 14 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

This one's a legitimate must-watch, anchored by a Gavin Williams start that's about as electric as pitching gets this season. Williams brings a 97.2 mph heater and a 68 xFIP- that ranks him near the very top of today's pitcher pool, and his pNERD of 12.35 blows past the historical 95th percentile — this is the rare start where the shiny won-loss record (11-6) actually undersells how nasty the underlying stuff is. He's also carrying a bit of positive regression in his favor. Michael King is a serviceable complement rather than a co-star, with a middling xFIP- and command that's been just okay lately, though he's still a fine bulldog performer for a Padres team that enters at 65-57, second in the NL West, riding excellent bullpen and defensive metrics that push their tNERD near the top of the league. Cleveland sits fourth in the AL Central at 59-63, with a 28-31 mark at home, and this is the first meeting between these two clubs this season. Combined, the 16.65 gNERD is comfortably above both the season-long and today's averages — worth clearing your schedule for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Cleveland Guardians

Michael King, San Diego Padres

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Two first-place teams meeting in a high-stakes late-season series, with a genuine Cy Young contender on the mound for the home side — this one's worth clearing your evening for. The Brewers (75-47, NL Central leaders) walked into Dodger Stadium and won game one on a ninth-inning, walk-off-style comeback, and now Milwaukee sends Robert Gasser out to try to steal another from a Dodgers team that's first in the NL West but banged up, with Yamamoto making his 22nd start, coming off five and two-thirds scoreless innings against Arizona. Yamamoto's pNERD of 7.55 checks out with the stuff: his xFIP- of 82 is well above average, backed by mid-90s velocity, and he's firmly in the NL Cy Young race for the second consecutive season. Gasser is more pedestrian — a 4.53 pNERD built on solid strike-throwing but shaky whiff rates — and he's been homer-prone, which is a bad combination against a Dodgers lineup that's mashed 156 homers as a team. Both offenses carry real thump (LA's batting runs and barrel rate both grade well above league average, Milwaukee's baserunning is elite), and combined with two of baseball's better bullpens, this lands at a gNERD of 15.03 — comfortably above both the historical and today's-slate averages, and one of the better watches on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:10p

Summary

Good stuff to work with. Let me draft the summary now.

A genuine treat on the mound, even if the standings say otherwise. Sandy Alcantara and Chase Burns headline this one, and both arrive with real storylines: Alcantara has not allowed a run in his past three outings covering 20 innings, marking his second scoreless streak of at least 20 innings this season, a feat that makes him the first MLB pitcher with multiple scoreless streaks of at least 20 innings in the same season since Nathan Eovaldi of the Texas Rangers in 2023. Burns, meanwhile, is the more electric arm statistically—his pNERD of 9.83 leans on mid-90s heat, a strong SwStr%, and youth (he's still just 23)—though he's coming off a rare loss after winning his previous 12 decisions, having been roughed up by Washington. Today's gNERD of 14.89 sits well above both the historic average (10.11) and today's slate average (11.14), driven largely by Miami's tNERD of 8.98, boosted by a young, cheap roster and a "positive luck" reading suggesting they've actually underperformed their skill. Cincinnati's offense has shown some thump lately, and Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly reputation could turn a pitching duel into something messier—but with these two arms going, it's worth tuning in regardless of the scoreboard.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Miami Marlins

Cincinnati Reds

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Good stuff, let me write the summary now.

A Cubs-flavored blowout waiting to happen, but Clay Holmes gives it a floor worth respecting. Chicago's excellent glovework and lineup depth pair with a homer-prone Cardinals starter to make this a lopsided but genuinely watchable affair at Wrigley. The Cubs post the best tNERD in this matchup by a mile (9.85), built on standout fielding and batting runs, while St. Louis limps in with a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen and a roster that's been on the wrong side of some ugly luck lately. On the mound, Clay Holmes has been quietly excellent — a sub-3.00 ERA with strong strikeout-to-walk control — though his last outing against Kansas City wasn't pretty, and his pNERD (5.12) reflects solid if unspectacular peripherals. Matthew Liberatore has allowed 20 home runs in 113.2 innings this year, and that homer risk is central to why oddsmakers expect fireworks, even if his own pNERD (5.70) is buoyed mostly by favorable luck. This gNERD of 13.14 sits comfortably above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate, making it a solid mid-tier watch — not appointment viewing, but not a waste of an afternoon either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Both teams are out of contention but this one has a nice absurdist hook: Robert Stock, a journeyman reliever pressed into an emergency start, carries a 10.13 ERA and eight strikeouts on the year, against a Nationals lineup that ranks fourth in the NL in batting average. That mismatch alone makes the Nationals moneyline the market's featured lean, and it inflates Washington's tNERD to 9.36 — one of the stronger team scores you'll see, built on solid barrel rate, baserunning, and a young, discount-payroll roster, though a bullpen that's been genuinely bad (Washington's pen ranks near the bottom in the sample) is the obvious escape hatch late. Andrew Alvarez, a 27-year-old with a tidy 3.76 ERA and useful strikeout totals, actually xFIP-outpitches his surface numbers and posts a solid 5.18 pNERD, while Stock's lack of usable Statcast data leaves him at a flat 0.00 — essentially an unknown quantity starting a game he probably wasn't supposed to start. Both clubs are playing out the string, but Washington's superior road record, Alvarez's quietly effective profile, and Stock's shaky track record combine for a 12.51 gNERD that lands comfortably above both the historical and today's averages.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

Robert Stock, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Two lineups going nowhere fast (a combined 124-120) still find a way to make this one worth a look, thanks to a live-armed young righty and a lefty quietly having a nice year. Bubba Chandler has been the Pirates' best starter since the break, and he backed that up by tossing "six scoreless innings" against the Mets with just three hits and one walk in his last outing — a nice bounce-back for someone who's walked more batters than almost anyone in the league this year. His 98.5 mph average fastball velocity is elite (his best NERD component by far), even if his 115 xFIP- and shaky command drag his overall pNERD down to a middling 5.21. Across the mound, Jake Bennett has been quietly effective, posting a strong strikeout rate and a tidy 3.17 ERA, and his youth and command give him the higher pNERD of the two at 6.47. Neither team stands out individually, but Pittsburgh's baserunning and payroll-underdog scrappiness balance Boston's shutdown bullpen (a genuine strength) to produce matching 6.4-ish tNERDs. Add it up and you get a 12.29 gNERD — comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, making this a solidly watchable one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Chicago plays first-place road baseball against a Detroit team that's suddenly hot, and this one has more storyline than most late-summer Central Division tilts. The White Sox lead the AL Central at 62-58 but arrive limping, having lost three straight on the road, while the Tigers are 7-3 in their last ten and only two and a half games back despite missing Riley Greene (hamstring) and a long list of walking wounded. Jackson Jobe is a genuine curiosity: the rookie righty is making just his second career start after tossing five scoreless innings against the Giants, with a 0.00 ERA and 7.2 strikeouts per nine so far — not enough data for a pNERD score yet, but worth tuning in for. Sean Newcomb, working mostly out of the bullpen this year, brings a tidy 5.75 pNERD thanks to strong contact management and a snappy pace, though he's making just his second start too. The tNERD gap favors Chicago's younger, scrappier roster (7.89) over Detroit's more expensive, banged-up group (4.55), giving this an above-average 11.59 gNERD — solidly in the upper half of what's typically on offer, if not among today's headliners.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Sean Newcomb, Chicago White Sox

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

A pretty middling matchup on paper, elevated mostly by the mystery of who actually takes the mound for Baltimore and Tampa Bay's quietly excellent underlying numbers. The Rays own the AL East's best pitching infrastructure and sit at 74-46, while the last-place Orioles arrive as decided underdogs, and reports suggest Baltimore's "TBD" starter could be Chris Bassitt, called up from a rehab stint carrying a 5.27 ERA, or possibly Kyle Bradish — either way it's a why-not slot start with zero pNERD data to go on. Steven Matz brings a modest 5.11 pNERD, buoyed almost entirely by his glacial pace and some positive regression luck, but the topline is rough: Matz is 5-4 with a 5.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in 62.2 innings, and the Rays have used him in both starting and relief roles, and he recently worked consecutive relief appearances, creating uncertainty around his length. Tampa's offense carries real juice thanks to strong batting runs, baserunning, and a favorable luck swing, while Pete Alonso has quietly caught fire against Baltimore's slumping lineup. At 10.46 gNERD, this sits almost exactly at the historical median — watchable if you like offense, skippable if you need star pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

Steven Matz, Tampa Bay Rays

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A playoff-race appetizer with one legitimately great arm on the mound, even if the numbers can't see him yet. Arizona, clinging to the last NL wild-card spot, sends a red-hot Brandon Pfaadt into Atlanta, and he's been nails lately — he's gone 25 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run, giving up just an unearned run on Aug. 3 against San Diego and throwing seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers in his last outing. His pNERD of 3.04 undersells that form somewhat, dinged by modest whiff and velocity marks, though his youth helps. The real story is who's opposing him: reports have Chris Sale on the mound for Atlanta, listed here as TBD with a 0.00 pNERD simply because we lack his underlying data — don't let that fool you, he's been excellent this year. Team-wise, the Braves' 5.97 tNERD edges Arizona's 4.94, mostly on barrel rate and bullpen strength, while Arizona's speed and defense keep it competitive. Both clubs carry hefty negative luck marks, suggesting each is playing worse than their process deserves. At 9.47, the gNERD sits a bit below average for today's slate, but a genuine ace and a wild-card-race edge make it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:15p

Summary

Good enough info to write the summary.

Gerrit Cole is rolling, the Blue Jays are barely showing up, and this game exists mostly to see if Toronto's fringe roster can avoid embarrassment. The gNERD of 9.03 sits below the historic median and well under today's slate average, so temper expectations even with a Cy Young pedigree on the mound.

Cole has been excellent lately — he's allowed three or fewer runs in each of his seven starts since July 1, posting a 2.72 ERA and 2.31 FIP with 53 strikeouts in 43 innings over that stretch — and his 7.29 pNERD reflects a legitimately nasty combination of strong xFIP-, plate-pounding strike rate, and mid-90s velocity even at age 35. Bieber, on the other hand, is still finding his footing; he's given up 16 hits, 10 runs and 11 walks over his last three outings and ranks in the first percentile in MLB in expected ERA, which lines up with his anemic 0.73 pNERD. New York's tNERD (8.09) towers over Toronto's (1.95) — the Jays rank near the bottom of the league in batting runs and barrel rate, though their glovework (a plus fielding number) and a decent broadcast rating keep them from bottoming out completely. Toronto is also playing out the string, 16.5 games back, while New York fights for the wild card. Watch for the Cole show; skip it for offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

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Texas Rangers @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

I have enough. Athletics starter is Gage Jump (listed as TBD in our data). Let me write the summary.

This one's mostly for AL West completists and A's-lineup optimists — a middling gNERD score propped up by one hot-hitting luck-laden Texas offense and not much else. The Athletics (47-74) come in having dropped three straight and eight of ten, while Texas (60-62) has lost two in a row, so neither club arrives riding good vibes, though Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom's 19 home runs and 56 RBIs give Oakland's lineup some thump against Kumar Rocker, who's reportedly at a disadvantage given his large platoon split against a lineup stacked with same-side bats. Rocker's pNERD (4.54) is unspectacular but respectable, built on a healthy swinging-strike rate and youth, though a slow pace works against him. His mound opponent is essentially a mystery box — the Athletics haven't nailed down a starter in our data, though reporting points to rookie Gage Jump, making any pitching-matchup intrigue purely theoretical. Texas's tNERD (5.41) is buoyed almost entirely by a huge positive luck score, suggesting the Rangers have been underperforming and could be better than their record. Oakland's tNERD (2.09), by contrast, is dragged down by shaky fielding and bullpen numbers. Add in the quirks of Sutter Health Park — a park with the 4th-lowest average fence height — and you get a game that could turn into a slugfest, but not one worth rearranging your evening for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Athletics

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Houston’s division-leading Astros host a fading Mariners club that has still somehow owned this matchup, and while the pitching matchup favors Seattle on paper, this is a middling watchability night overall. Seattle has taken seven of the first eight meetings between these teams this season, which makes this AL West tilt feel more personal than the standings suggest, even as the Astros lead the AL West at 62-60 while Seattle sits five games back at 57-65, having gone 3-7 over their last ten games. George Kirby is the reason to tune in: his 7.31 pNERD is well above average, built on plus velocity, strong strike-throwing, and a sweeper generating a 37.2% whiff rate with a .170 xwOBA against, a genuine put-away weapon. Peter Lambert, fresh off giving up two earned runs on five hits in five innings against San Diego, grades out far more modestly. Neither offense is a real carrot for us — Seattle's poor fielding and baserunning drag its tNERD down, and Houston's numbers are similarly unremarkable, save for Yordan Alvarez doing Yordan Alvarez things in the middle of the order. At 8.35 gNERD, this lands below the historic median and well under today's slate average, so treat it as background viewing unless Kirby's stuff is must-see for you.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

Two last-place clubs collide, but there's just enough juice here to make it watchable rather than a full skip. Colorado has actually won back-to-back games, including a series win at Arizona for the first time since 2022, while the Giants have quietly cratered, dropping their last game and going 3-7 over their last ten. San Francisco's Luis Arraez is doing his usual .324-hitting, ball-in-play magic, and Rafael Devers supplies the thump, but the Giants' offense has been getting more than its underlying numbers deserve—their tNERD gets a healthy luck bump, suggesting the current run-scoring pace may not hold. On the mound, Freeland brings a bloated 6.63 xFIP-driven ERA but a strong strike-throwing profile, and he's been unlucky enough that positive regression seems plausible. Roupp is the more interesting arm—an above-average xFIP- and quick pace give him real value, though he's been wild lately, walking 12 batters over his last three outings while barely cracking six punchouts. Team NERDs are near the bottom of today's slate, so temper expectations, but the pitching intrigue nudges this one just above replacement-level viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Both the Royals and Angels are staggering toward September with little left to play for, and this game reflects it. Kansas City is riding a four-game losing streak and sits last in the AL Central at 49-73, while the Angels are last in the AL West at 48-74, so the drama here is more existential than competitive. Grayson Rodriguez, who came over from Baltimore this year, has been rough in his new home—he's carrying a 7.20 ERA and just allowed three earned runs in four innings against Miami in his last outing—though his 96.1 mph velocity and youth (26) still give him the higher pNERD of the two starters, boosted by an unlucky 56.0 luck figure suggesting better results should be coming. Seth Lugo, on the other end, is a control specialist who's been steady if unspectacular (six innings, three runs in his last start against the Cubs), but his diminished velocity and swinging-strike rate keep his pNERD modest. Both offenses are punchless and both bullpens are shaky in different ways—Kansas City's is a genuine problem area—which drags the combined tNERD to one of the lowest figures you'll see, well below both the historical and today's average. Not a priority.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

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  MLB: What to watch on August 13, 2026