MLB: What to watch on August 16, 2026

• 16 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

Two of the best teams in baseball, a trade-deadline blockbuster reunion, and the two most efficient strikeout-to-walk arms in the league — this is as good as gNERD gets today. Milwaukee and Los Angeles enter this series finale separated by percentage points atop the NL, and the storyline writing itself: the Brewers tried hard to pry Tarik Skubal away from Detroit at the deadline, only to watch the Dodgers land him instead, while Milwaukee kept the guy Detroit reportedly wanted in return — Logan Henderson. Skubal owns the majors' best strikeout-to-walk ratio at 7.11, with Henderson third at 6.27, and both arms grade out as elite by the numbers — Skubal's 11.97 pNERD is driven by a filthy 65 xFIP- and 96.8 mph heat, while Henderson isn't far behind at 9.71, backed by a 71 xFIP- despite still finding his footing in his third career start since returning from a back strain. Both lineups bring thunder too — Henderson has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his 11 starts this season, and Skubal is still looking to settle in after admitting some nerves in his first two starts as a Dodger. With a 19.77 gNERD — comfortably above today's 11.38 average and near the top of the historical range — this is the marquee game of the day.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

A pitching duel between two legitimately nasty arms is the headline here, even if the offenses around them have gone ice-cold. Dylan Cease brings a 65 xFIP- and a strikeout rate befitting his 191 punchouts this year, and his stuff shows up clearly in the NERD math — 97+ mph heat and elite whiff rates make him the best arm on the board today, with a pNERD near the top of what you'll see all season. Ryan Weathers isn't chopped liver either: he counters at 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 136 strikeouts, and was excellent in his last outing, allowing just one earned run over 5.2 innings against Seattle. The lineups, though, are the problem — the Yankees have hit just .202 over their last 27 games, and Toronto isn't much better, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on the 7-day concussion IL and a rotation battered by injuries. Toronto's tNERD is thin thanks to a punchless offense, while New York's barrel-rate and bullpen give them a real team-quality edge. Given the strikeout stuff involved, expect a lot of empty at-bats and a tight, low-scoring finale to the series.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 12:15p

Summary

A slugfest hangover game with real juice: Cardinals prospect Joshua Baez just made history, and Wrigley gets to see if the Cubs can regroup. The Cardinals arrive fresh off St. Louis' 8-4 road win on Saturday, in which the organization's No. 3 prospect, Joshua Baez, became the first player in major league history to hit three home runs in his debut. That's the storyline of the weekend, and it's given the Cardinals a shot at their first time since 2022 that the Cardinals clinched both road series at Chicago. Chicago, meanwhile, is trying to shake off that beating — in a 10-4 start to August, the Cubs have won three consecutive series and seek their fourth in a row.

The gNERD of 13.64 sits comfortably above today's 11.38 average, mostly thanks to the Cubs' tNERD of 9.79 — elite fielding and batting runs make this Chicago lineup genuinely fun, even if the bullpen has been shaky. Edward Cabrera's 6.62 pNERD leans on plus velocity (96.4 mph) and some positive regression coming his way, though his control is spotty. Dobbins, a former Red Sox ACL-tear survivor now in St. Louis via the Willson Contreras trade, brings a tidy modern approach. Worth catching, especially if Baez keeps swinging.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Hunter Dobbins, St. Louis Cardinals

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

Chicago's surprise division leaders roll into Detroit trying for the sweep, and the pitching matchup features two effective arms even if the box scores don't show it. The White Sox have already taken the first two games of this series — Chicago pounded out a 9-5 win on Friday and followed it up with a 4-3 squeaker on Saturday — and Detroit is scrambling to avoid the broom while trying to stay in the wild-card hunt. The Tigers' pitching staff looks different than it did a month ago: right-hander Drew Anderson will start the series finale for the Tigers after moving into the rotation once Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize were traded at the deadline. Anderson's actual stuff has been solid — 87 xFIP-, strong swinging-strike rate — even though across his last two long-relief-style outings the 32-year-old has posted a microscopic 1.17 ERA but a much less impressive 4.91 FIP. Burke has been Chicago's workhorse, throwing quality starts in seven of his last nine outings, and owns a tidy history against Detroit, going 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers, including a 2-1 win on May 31. With a gNERD of 13.54 — comfortably above the historic median and near today's slate average — and Chicago's tNERD standing out thanks to youth and payroll efficiency, this one's worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers

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San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Good, hot Padres, series details, and Mize/Bibee history. Now write the summary.

Padres–Guardians offers a decent floor of watchability, mostly thanks to a red-hot San Diego club and a series rubber match with something on the line. The Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning seven of their last 10 games and putting themselves into a wild-card spot, overtaking both Arizona and Philadelphia, and they're looking to close out the series after taking the opener. San Diego's tNERD (9.96) is well above average, powered by a strong bullpen and elite fielding/baserunning marks, while Cleveland's tNERD (7.88) gets a boost from a young, cheap roster and some positive regression in the tank given its negative luck. On the mound, Casey Mize gives the Padres a moderately interesting look — he's coming off a start where he allowed just two runs over six innings against the Brewers after being rocked in an earlier outing, and he'll face a Cleveland team he knows well from his Tigers days, having thrown 6.2 innings of two-run ball against the Guardians back in May. Tanner Bibee's pNERD (3.46) is unspectacular, and his numbers include a 3.70 career ERA, 1.165 WHIP and 3.60 FIP — solid, if not thrilling. Overall gNERD of 13.26 sits comfortably above the historical median, making this a reasonable, if not must-see, choice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Cleveland Guardians

Casey Mize, San Diego Padres

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

The last-place Mets host a last-place-adjacent Nationals team that somehow leads all of baseball in scoring, and that contradiction alone makes this one worth a look. Washington enters at 60-63 but has been quietly one of the best offensive clubs in the sport — the Nationals lead MLB in scoring at 5.4 runs per game and have a .252 team batting average — reflected in a tNERD of 9.31, driven by strong batting and baserunning marks and a young, cheap roster. The Mets counter with a tNERD of 5.48, buoyed mostly by broadcast quality rather than on-field production, since New York ranks 22nd in scoring at 4.18 runs per game and owns a .235 batting average. On the mound, Christian Scott is the story: after undergoing a combined Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure that ruled him out for all of 2025, he's rebuilt himself into a legitimate mid-rotation arm, posting a 6.72 pNERD on the back of a sharp xFIP-. Jake Irvin, by contrast, is scuffling — his 3.76 pNERD reflects a career-worst season where his ERA is climbing because teams are barreling him up early and often, and the Mets will tee off on him and Washington's dismal bullpen. Washington is also missing James Wood, adding to the lineup's uncertainty. At 12.63, the gNERD sits comfortably above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate — not a marquee game, but a legitimately entertaining one thanks to Scott's comeback arc and Washington's surprisingly potent bats.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Christian Scott, New York Mets

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Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

Eury Pérez throwing 98 mph gas against a Reds lineup that can't stop striking out is the headline here, even if the win-loss records suggest a fringe season for both clubs. Miami rides into Cincinnati fresh off an 8-4 series win Saturday, Jakob Marsee and Joe Mack homered as the Marlins rallied with a four-run eighth inning to beat the Reds 8-4, and the season series sits tied 3-3 in the teams' seventh meeting this year. Pérez is the real draw: his pNERD of 8.18 is built on premium velocity, elite swinging-strike rate, and youth, though his plodding pace knocks a bit off the shine. He's currently eyeing win No. 7 on the season after going 6-9 with a 3.39 ERA and 128 strikeouts. Lodolo, by contrast, is scuffling — a 4.86 ERA and 1.46 WHIP — and his pNERD of 2.11 reflects that. Miami's tNERD (9.19) is genuinely strong, boosted by a young, cheap roster and some positive batted-luck regression still to come; Cincinnati's offense has been the problem, dragging their tNERD down despite solid raw power. Combined gNERD of 12.27 sits a bit above the historical median and roughly average for today's slate — watchable mostly for Pérez's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Miami Marlins

Cincinnati Reds

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves, 10:35a

Summary

A rubber-match finale with a genuine feel-good storyline: Michael Soroka, a former Braves ace who spent years fighting back from devastating Achilles injuries, returns to Atlanta looking sharp with a new team. The Diamondbacks lead the season series 4-2 heading into the finale, and this pitching matchup has history on its side — Soroka has already thrown a scoreless outing against Atlanta this year and has been stingy lately, throwing 4.1 scoreless innings against the Rockies in his last outing, allowing just three hits. His 6.07 pNERD checks in comfortably above average, built on a strong strike rate and xFIP-, and it's easy to see why oddsmakers see this as a tighter pitching matchup than the moneyline suggests. Bryce Elder's 4.65 pNERD is more middling — his fast pace helps his number, but shaky swinging-strike and strike rates drag it back down. Both lineups carry roughly average tNERD marks; Arizona's is buoyed by strong baserunning and fielding despite a light bat, while Atlanta's barrel rate stands out but its offense has been unlucky this year, with a significant negative luck figure hinting at better days ahead for the Braves' bats. Add it up and this game's 10.81 gNERD sits almost exactly at the historical median — a solid, unspectacular watch elevated by Soroka's redemption arc and playoff-race stakes for two teams jockeying for October position.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 9:15a

Summary

A doubleheader-of-sorts finale between a fading Baltimore club and a first-place Tampa Bay team gives you decent pitching without much juice elsewhere. The Orioles arrive at 59-63, playing out the string 16.5 games back in the AL East, while the Rays sit at 74-47 and own the majors' best team batting average. Trevor Rogers gets the ball for Baltimore and posts the better pNERD of the two starters (5.15), driven mostly by an excellent strike-throwing rate; Freddy Peralta (4.61) counters for Tampa Bay, though his season xFIP suggests he's actually pitched better than his results show, with a hefty positive luck score hinting at better days ahead. Team-wise, the Rays edge the Orioles in tNERD (5.99 to 5.17), fueled by strong batting and baserunning numbers, even though their barrel rate is among the league's worst — a contact-over-power offense. Overall gNERD of 10.46 sits almost exactly at the historic median and slightly below today's slate average, making this a watchable-but-skippable option if something juicier is on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

A rookie fireballer with electric stuff but shaky results faces a journeyman who's quietly been Minnesota's best story of the week — watch for swing-and-miss stuff, not clean innings. Philadelphia has already housed Minnesota twice in this series, winning 7-1 and 9-1, and the Phillies bring the better all-around roster with a bullpen that's been quietly excellent this year. Andrew Painter, Philly's 23-year-old phenom, still touches 96 mph and gets a huge NERD bump for age and pure stuff, but his line is troubling: a 6.27 ERA and a bloated 1.53 WHIP, with a well-documented home run problem — his xFIP suggests he's actually been better than that ugly ERA implies, so some positive regression looks due. On the other side, Dean Kremer's sample with the club is small at two starts, but he has been very good in that stretch, with numbers stronger at home, and his peripherals (sharp xFIP-, healthy whiff rate) back it up more than Painter's do. Minnesota's lineup and defense have been middling all year, dragging the team score down, while Philadelphia's road bats have gone quiet, hitting just .224 away from home — so don't expect a slugfest. Today's gNERD of 10.23 sits a shade below the league average of 10.81, making this a watchable but unspectacular Sunday outing, carried mostly by Painter's power arm and Kremer's surprising early returns.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Minnesota Twins

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

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Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

A rubber match with two teams playing over their heads and a passable pitching matchup, but nothing screaming must-watch. Boston and Pittsburgh split the first two games of this series, with the Red Sox riding Sonny Gray's career-high 15th win and seven scoreless innings to a 4-0 win the day before. The bigger story here is Pittsburgh's autumn recall: Paul Skenes was supposed to start but is resting until Wednesday instead, leaving Lake Bachar to step in. Bachar's pNERD (4.57) is respectable given he's normally a multi-inning reliever pressed into an emergency start, but a strong swinging-strike rate offset by shaky control gives him modest but real swing-and-miss stuff. Sandoval, by contrast, grades out as one of the least interesting arms you'll see (pNERD 2.48), his diminished strike-throwing and slow pace dragging things down, consistent with his 1.70 WHIP reflecting 38 hits and 13 walks in just 30 innings. Both lineups carry decent tNERD marks — Pittsburgh's baserunning and payroll scarcity add some scrap, Boston's bullpen strength helps — pushing the gNERD to 9.80, comfortably below today's 11.38 average and the historical middle of the pack. Watchable if it's on, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Pittsburgh Pirates

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

Lake Bachar, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 4:20p

Summary

Solid pitching, uneven offense — a workmanlike series finale rather than a marquee event, but Bryan Woo is worth tuning in for on his own merits. This is the rubber match of the weekend set, and while the standings tiebreaker is already sewn up, the Mariners still have real incentive here: they have five games remaining against Houston, including a final two-game series at home in September, and taking another series this weekend would let them cut into the standings against a team ahead of them. Seattle just avoided a sweep in New York behind a strong Logan Gilbert outing, and the bigger issue for the M's isn't pitching but scoring enough to back it up — their lineup hasn't consistently given the pitching staff enough support to make strong starts matter. Woo is the headliner: his 7.91 pNERD is comfortably above average, built on plus command (elite strike rate), mid-90s velocity, and a tidy xFIP-, though he's shown some bad luck this year that suggests better results ahead. Hunter Brown is solid if unspectacular by comparison, with good velocity but middling command metrics dragging his pNERD to a modest 4.01. Both offenses are just okay — Houston's tNERD edges Seattle's thanks to better batting production, but neither team's overall NERD profile screams "must-watch," and the 9.27 gNERD lands below both the historical and today's averages.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

Two last-place NL West also-rans playing out the string, but you get two young arms with modest peripherals to offset the noise. Colorado (49-74) and San Francisco (51-72) are both buried in the West cellar with nothing but pride at stake, and the modest gNERD of 9.17 sits below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.38), so temper expectations. The lift here comes from the mound: Blade Tidwell (pNERD 6.96) and Gabriel Hughes (pNERD 5.85) both post above-average marks thanks largely to youth and playable xFIP-, with Tidwell adding real velocity (95.4 mph) and a sharp SwStr%. Their surface numbers—Hughes at 0-4, 5.61 ERA, and Tidwell at 0-0, 2.78 ERA—are "ugly" for a pennant race but reflect two teams focused on evaluating young arms. Tidwell, acquired from the Mets for Tyler Rogers, is still building a big-league track record after a shoulder injury derailed his 2025. The Giants' tNERD (4.21) is inflated by lucky sequencing and strong broadcast ratings rather than actual production, while the Rockies (1.31) are simply short on power and defense. Bettors expect a low-scoring, defensively tidy affair — watchable for the arms, skippable for the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies

Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants

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Texas Rangers @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

This one's a skip unless you have a soft spot for last-place-ish AL West also-rans playing out the string in Sacramento. The gNERD here checks in at a modest 6.03, well below both the historical median (10.80) and today's slate average (11.38), and the pitching matchup is the main culprit.

Jacob Lopez brings a -0.33 pNERD, weighed down by a rough 128 xFIP- and shaky command (low strike rate, below-average velocity), while Cody Bradford's file is simply blank — no data to hang a storyline on. Neither arm gives you a reason to tune in early.

The lineups have more juice than the pitching. Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom give Oakland genuine middle-of-order punch, while Wyatt Langford has been one of the more complete offensive players for Texas, with Joc Pederson's power a constant threat. Texas sits a couple games back in the AL Wild Card race, making every game against a sub-.500 club one they can't afford to waste — except Oakland just took the series opener behind a four-hit night from Jeff McNeil. Both clubs carry positive luck scores (Rangers +1.95, A's +0.92), suggesting some regression toward better form is plausible, but Oakland's brutal fielding and bullpen numbers keep their tNERD near the historic basement. Watch only if there's nothing else on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Athletics

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

Two last-place teams playing out the string, but Noah Cameron gives this one just enough juice to be worth a glance. Both the Royals and Angels are well below .500 with little on the line beyond pride, and the tNERD scores reflect that: Kansas City checks in at 2.05 and Los Angeles a paltry 0.99, dragged down by shaky batting runs and, for the Angels, especially weak baserunning and fielding. Kansas City's bullpen has been a disaster too, posting one of the worst bullpen-runs marks around.

The pitching matchup is lopsided but interesting. Noah Cameron has been one of the hottest pitchers in the league over his last four starts, logging 28.2 innings and striking out 26 batters, and his 5.85 pNERD reflects real swing-and-miss stuff plus a youthful age boost. Ryan Johnson, on the other hand, owns a 6.89 career ERA and 6.8 FIP, and his ugly xFIP- tanks his pNERD to 2.85 despite a big positive luck number suggesting some regression relief may be coming. With a combined gNERD of 5.87 — well below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.38) — this is a game to skip unless you're specifically chasing Cameron's strikeout stuff.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

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