MLB: What to watch on August 19, 2026

• 19 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

A high-scoring Crosstown Classic finale with real playoff stakes for both sides — this one's worth your remote. With a 14.78 gNERD, this White Sox-Cubs series capper ranks near the top of today's slate and comfortably above the historical average, driven mostly by the Cubs' excellent 10.04 tNERD, fueled by a Sox offense driven by the home run ball, with a lineup built around three sluggers who each have over 25 homers facing off against a Cubs team boasting standout batting and fielding runs. It's worth noting it's rare when both Chicago baseball teams are on track to make the playoffs in August, which gives this series some extra juice. On the mound, Sean Newcomb has been effective out of the White Sox pen and now starts, holding right-handed hitters to just a .194 average this season after tossing 2 1/3 hitless innings against Detroit on Sunday, while Clay Holmes brings a solid xFIP-based pNERD of his own. Neither arm is elite by pNERD standards, but both grade out useful, and the offense-forward Cubs lineup should keep this one lively.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago White Sox

Chicago Cubs

Sean Newcomb, Chicago White Sox

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

Paul Skenes remains appointment viewing even when he's not at his absolute best, and that's the whole case for this one. The reigning NL Cy Young winner enters with a pedestrian-for-him 3.88 ERA and has scuffled since late July — a 6.52 ERA over his last four starts, with 20 hits and 11 walks in 19⅓ innings against the Cubs, Reds, Brewers and Marlins — but the underlying stuff hasn't gone anywhere, and his 10.71 pNERD (well above today's 6.05 average) reflects an elite xFIP-, mid-90s velocity, and a whiff rate that still misses bats. Detroit hasn't found answers either; among five healthy Tigers regulars who have faced Skenes, they are a combined 3-for-29 with 2 RBIs. Jackson Jobe, meanwhile, is a total mystery box — no pNERD data available — and his last outing wasn't encouraging, as he struggled in his last outing, chased after 3⅔ innings by the White Sox after allowing nine hits, two homers and six earned runs. Pittsburgh's tNERD (6.58) also outpaces Detroit's (4.26), pushing the 13.27 gNERD comfortably above both the historic and today's averages. Watch for Skenes; don't expect much from the other dugout.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Chase Burns is the show here, and the Reds' offense might make sure he doesn't have to be. Burns brings a Cy Young-caliber season into Great American Ball Park — he's 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA in 23 starts, ranked second in the NL in wins and third in ERA and opponents' batting average. He rebounded from a rough Washington start by throwing seven shutout innings with no walks against the Marlins, the first time in his career he'd gone seven scoreless without a walk. His 97.7 mph average velocity and elite whiff rate power a pNERD near the top of today's slate. The opponent is the problem: Cincinnati is buried near the bottom of MLB in batting average and OBP, and had just three hits and one walk in the series opener loss. Liberatore, by contrast, is a league-average arm (5.99 pNERD, 99 xFIP-) getting positive marks mostly for youth and some scuffling luck. St. Louis carries the better team-NERD profile thanks to plus fielding and a young, cheap roster, while Cincinnati's barrel rate and Elly De La Cruz-powered thump provide some counterbalance. At 13.22, this game sits comfortably above the historical average — watch it for Burns, not for offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

Sandy Alcantara heads to Philly having already beaten the Phillies twice this month, and if he makes it a series sweep it'll be while the Marlins avoid a trade-deadline exit that once seemed inevitable. Miami's 9.30 tNERD is the star here—strong baserunning, a young low-payroll roster, and a positive luck score suggesting they've actually underperformed their skill level, which is a nice change from the recent 12-game losing streak they've since erased. Alcantara himself, the 2022 Cy Young winner, brings a 97-plus mph fastball and elite strike-throwing that fuels his solid 5.73 pNERD—he shut out Philadelphia over seven innings his last time out. Aaron Nola, by contrast, comes in with the Phillies having lost eight of their 11 games since the All-Star break, though his 92 xFIP- and positive luck component hint he's due for better results than his 4-9 record shows. Philadelphia's lineup still has thump from Schwarber and Harper, but shaky fielding and batting numbers keep their tNERD modest. At a 13.03 gNERD, this sits comfortably above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate—worth catching if you like a proven arm chasing a season sweep.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Milwaukee's near-best-in-baseball roster meets a Seattle club that's scuffling on the road, but the pitching matchup gives this one enough juice to be worth a look. The Brewers own the majors' second-best record and one of the sport's most balanced attacks, while the Mariners are stuck at 27-36 away from home, leaning on Julio Rodríguez's 19 home runs and a hot streak from Randy Arozarena to stay afloat. On the mound, Logan Gilbert brings a tidy 85 xFIP- and elite swinging-strike rate, making him the clear stuff-and-command edge in this one. Dustin May, since being traded from the Cardinals, is working on his third straight quality start with the Brewers, sporting a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings—though his sluggish pace drags his NERD grade down a bit. Milwaukee's tNERD sits near the top of today's slate, fueled by strong baserunning and bullpen work, while Seattle's underlying luck numbers suggest they're due for better days than their record shows. Solid arms, contrasting trajectories, plenty to watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Seattle Mariners

Milwaukee Brewers

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Payton Tolle's rise from Triple-A afterthought to Fenway ace headlines this one, and the pNERD gap between him and Pfaadt tells the real story. Boston's rookie southpaw comes in with a legit case as the most watchable arm in the sport right now — a 9.94 pNERD driven by a filthy strikeout rate, plus velocity, and youth, and it's backed up by results: in his most recent outing he went eight scoreless innings against Toronto, and in 20 games this season has a 2.97 ERA with 10.0 strikeouts per nine, holding opponents to a .214 average. Pfaadt, by contrast, is merely fine — his xFIP- and whiff rate are middling, though he'll make his 13th start of the season after allowing two hits in seven scoreless innings against Atlanta last time out. Arizona arrives banged up, with Nolan Arenado day-to-day and a lengthy IL list including Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen, and Corbin Burnes all out with elbow issues, which helps explain their so-so offensive tNERD. Boston's bullpen and modest positive luck nudge their team score up too. Add it together and you get a gNERD comfortably above average, carried almost entirely by watching a 23-year-old with swing-and-miss stuff try to keep dealing at Fenway.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Boston Red Sox

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

A pitching mismatch masking a genuinely fun watch, thanks to a Nationals team that's quietly one of the more entertaining rosters in baseball. Cade Cavalli, the former top prospect who's finally healthy and pitching like it, takes the mound off a stretch that included carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Chicago, and he brings a tidy 3.46 FIP and 3.36 xFIP that back up his gaudy strikeout numbers — his 7.13 pNERD is well above average. Kumar Rocker, on the other end, is scuffling to a 4-9, 4.50 ERA season with control issues that show up in his below-average strike rate, though he's shown swing-and-miss stuff worth watching develop. Washington's tNERD of 9.08 is the story here — young, athletic, and disruptive on the bases, plus a payroll that says "small market" pretending to be exciting — but the Nats' bullpen (a rough -2.17 component) means Cavalli might not get to finish what he starts. Texas counters with a roster propped up almost entirely by good fortune, a whopping 1.94 luck component suggesting their record is better than the underlying numbers deserve. At 12.57, the gNERD score sits solidly above the historical median and comfortably in today's upper range, making this one of the more watchable matchups on the board despite Washington's four-game skid.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Texas Rangers

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Cleveland gets the far more interesting pitching story here, even if the Giants side is the one making history. Matt Wilkinson makes his MLB debut against the very organization that drafted and traded him away, and he's doing it against a Cleveland lineup that's been ice-cold lately — but he's also doing it against Parker Messick, arguably the toughest possible welcome-to-the-show assignment. Messick carries a 7.92 pNERD (well above the day's 6.05 average) on the strength of a sharp 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 142 strikeouts this season, backed by strong peripherals (83 xFIP-, quick pace) that suggest the surface numbers aren't a mirage. Wilkinson, meanwhile, arrives with zero MLB data and a 5.15 ERA in Triple-A this year, so temper expectations there. Cleveland's tNERD (7.55) outpaces San Francisco's (4.11), fueled by a young, cheap roster and a Giants team that's been snakebitten (positive luck score) after dropping eight of its last eleven games. The Guardians also just hung an 8-1 beatdown on the Giants the night before, so revenge/redemption energy is in play. Overall gNERD of 12.29 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — watch for Messick and the Wilkinson origin story, not for offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Cleveland Guardians

Matt Wilkinson, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets, 10:10a

Summary

Padres are fighting for a wild-card spot with the Phillies while the Mets are 17.5 games back and playing out the string, so this one has real stakes on only one side of the diamond. San Diego is tied for the final NL wild-card spot with Arizona breathing down its neck, giving King's start extra juice even if his stuff has been middling lately (8-8, 3.41 ERA, with an xFIP- close to average). Robert Stock, making a rare big-league start for New York, has been rough this year (0-2, 6.57 ERA, 1.86 WHIP) and there's simply no data to build a pNERD score on him, so treat this as a matchup wildcard rather than a pitching showcase. The Padres' 10.03 tNERD is carried by a shutdown bullpen and strong defense/baserunning, while the Mets scrape by on power (Bo Bichette's 12 homers) but get dinged for shaky baserunning and D. At 11.98, the gNERD sits a touch above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate, making this a decent, not essential, watch — mostly for what's on the line for San Diego.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

New York Mets

Michael King, San Diego Padres

Robert Stock, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers, first place in the NL West, are chasing a series sweep at Coors Field, so there's actual stakes here beyond the usual late-August fixture list. Roki Sasaki has quietly turned his season around, and this is worth your attention if only to watch that transformation continue.

Sasaki still carries the highest pNERD in this matchup, powered by upper-90s velocity and a strong swinging-strike rate, and his underlying skills look better than his 4.46 ERA suggests. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts, and over his last six outings had a 2.50 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 13 walks in 36 innings, and has lasted at least six innings four times. Freeland, by contrast, is a control-over-stuff lefty pitching well below his own home-state fans' expectations — he has a 6.27 ERA in 22 starts, ranking 100th in ERA and 91st in xERA among qualified pitchers. The Dodgers' offense and bullpen depth give them a clear tNERD edge (8.50 to Colorado's 1.20), and they've already won the first two games of this series, 11-5 and 7-6. The gNERD here sits a touch above average for today's slate, driven mostly by Sasaki's stuff rather than any real team-vs-team drama — competitive individual matchup, lopsided overall context.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins, 10:40a

Summary

Good, I have enough for a solid summary.

A soft-tossing homecoming versus a Twins Triple-A refugee turned rotation stalwart is more compelling than it looks on paper. AJ Smith-Shawver returns from Tommy John surgery to make his first big-league start of the second half after Atlanta bumped Chris Sale to Friday; the 23-year-old right-hander was turning in a stellar 1.57 ERA at the Triple-A level and earned an International League Pitcher of the Week nod, but there's no pNERD data yet to gauge his current stuff, so it's pure speculation whether he pitches like a top prospect or a guy nine months removed from elbow surgery. Across the mound, Taj Bradley brings real firepower — a 6.39 pNERD built on mid-90s-plus velocity (his 97.1 mph average grades out well above league norm) and solid strikeout ability, making him one of the more watchable arms on the slate today. Team-wise, Atlanta's 5.51 tNERD outpaces Minnesota's 2.94, with the Braves getting a lift from strong barrel rates and bullpen work, while the Twins are dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning. The Braves' minus-38 luck figure suggests they've been underperforming and could be due for better results. Overall, a 9.92 gNERD sits a bit below the historic and today's averages — solidly watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Minnesota Twins

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Good, I have plenty to work with here for the summary.

This one's less about pitching artistry and more about watching two shaky arms try to survive the Camden Yards gauntlet. Chris Bassitt is making just his second start back from June back surgery, and the rust shows: a 5.11 xFIP-driven ugly line with a 1.62 WHIP that's earned him the league's worst pNERD score today. Will Warren isn't much better lately — outside of his start at Wrigley Field on July 31, Warren's summer has not gone well, allowing three and five runs in his last couple of starts — though his younger legs and better underlying xFIP- still make him the more interesting arm here, aided by some bad luck that suggests better days ahead. The Yankees bring the juice offensively, with an elite barrel rate and a bullpen that's quietly been solid, giving New York's tNERD a healthy lead over Baltimore's more modest, defense-optional roster. Both teams are jockeying for playoff position — Baltimore clinging to wild-card hopes, New York sitting comfortably in second in the AL East — so there's stakes, even if the artistry is lacking. At 9.17, this gNERD sits below both the historical and today's averages: watch for the offense, not the men on the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

Rays 6-18, sit tight — the numbers say this one leans Tampa Bay's way, and Drew Rasmussen is the reason to tune in. Rasmussen brings a 8.28 pNERD, the best mark in this matchup by a wide margin, built on strong contact management and a fastball that's sitting at 95.7 mph — he's posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.033 WHIP and 2.80 FIP across 589 innings for his career, and he's chasing his 13th win of the year. Across from him, 41-year-old Max Scherzer offers more novelty than production; he became the 139th pitcher to throw 3,000 innings and has battled through injuries this year but is still pitching as if he's in his prime, and his 2.20 ERA in August has been his best stretch of the season, striking out 13 against three walks. Still, his xFIP-heavy peripherals drag his pNERD down to 1.11. Tampa Bay's tNERD (6.18) is buoyed by strong baserunning and positive luck (suggesting more offense could be coming), while Toronto's punchless offense — dead last in the majors in runs per game — keeps their tNERD low at 2.38. With a gNERD of 8.97, this sits below the historic average and near the bottom of today's slate, but Rasmussen's start alone makes it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

A last-place team's fireballing 22-year-old visits a bumbling rookie making his MLB debut — modest overall appeal, but Ureña's arm is worth catching. The Angels, mired at 49-76, roll into Houston with Walbert Ureña, whose 8-8 record, 2.67 ERA, and 102 strikeouts mask an even more eye-catching profile: he's sitting at 97.8 mph with a pNERD score of 6.80, comfortably above average, fueled almost entirely by that velocity and his youth. Houston counters with Ethan Pecko, who by several accounts is making his big-league debut — hence the pNERD of 0.00, since there's simply no track record to grade yet, and it injects real uncertainty into how this one plays out. Neither offense has been doing much lately, with both lineups "light on production lately", and the tNERD scores reflect that malaise — Houston's 3.28 gets by on modest batting runs, while the Angels' 0.76 is dragged down by poor fielding and baserunning. Overall gNERD of 7.92 sits below both the historical and today's averages, so this is a watch-Ureña's-fastball game more than a must-see one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

Ethan Pecko, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

I have enough information from the initial searches to write the summary. Let me compose it based on what I found: both teams are last-place, non-contending clubs (A's 49-76/77, Royals 52-74/53-74) with the game featuring Seth Lugo vs. Gage Jump as probable starters, though the box lists them as TBD with no pNERD data.

Two last-place also-rans playing out the string in Kansas City—this one's for completionists and Royals die-hards only. The A's (49-77) and Royals (52-74) are both well outside any playoff picture, and the gNERD of 7.30 sits below the historical average and near the bottom of today's slate.Two teams playing out the string, and the numbers know it. The Athletics (49-77) and Royals (52-74) are both comfortably out of the playoff race, and the gNERD of 7.30 lands below the historical average and toward the low end of today's slate. The listed pitchers here are TBD with no pNERD data to lean on, though the probable matchup circulating is Seth Lugo for Kansas City against Gage Jump for Oakland — a veteran innings-eater against a young arm still building a big-league track record. Team-wise, neither side offers much juice: Kansas City's bullpen has been a sinkhole (its Bullpen Runs component is deeply negative), and Oakland's fielding and baserunning are similarly shaky, dragging both tNERD scores toward the bottom of the league. The one silver lining for value-hunters is the Luck component — Oakland is running notably underwater relative to its underlying numbers, meaning the on-field results may look worse than the true talent level suggests. Absent a pitching duel making itself known day-of, this is a game to skip unless you're a die-hard fan of either club or simply enjoy watching two rebuilding rosters figure things out in real time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Athletics

Kansas City Royals

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