MLB: What to watch on August 20, 2026

• 20 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Jacob deGrom takes the mound with genuine intrigue attached: this is a pitcher trying to prove his triceps and hip are cooperating after exiting a start against the Angels a week ago having thrown just two innings before shutting it down. If he's right, watch closely — his stuff still ticks every analytical box, with a 97.3 mph fastball, elite swinging-strike rate, and an xFIP- of 76 that would make pitchers half his age jealous, driving a pNERD of 10.78, comfortably above the day's average. The oft-injured deGrom has a chance to match last season's total of 30 starts, the first time he had reached that number since making 32 in each of his Cy Young Award seasons with the New York Mets in 2018-19. Opposite him, Andrew Alvarez is a perfectly serviceable lefty (pNERD 5.08) without much sizzle — think of him as the seasoning rather than the main course. The Nationals bring real offensive juice, with strong barrel rates and baserunning value pushing their tNERD to 9.17, though a shaky bullpen keeps dragging on their ceiling. The Rangers, by contrast, are a middling, slightly unlucky team (tNERD 4.97) that's gone 3-7 over their last ten. With a gNERD of 15.00 — well above both the historical and today's averages — this one earns its spot near the top of the watch list, deGrom health permitting.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Texas Rangers

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:10a

Summary

Gavin Williams is having a quietly dominant season, and this is your best excuse of the day to watch a last-place team's road trip. The gNERD score of 14.71 sits comfortably above both the historic 95th percentile (15.60) and today's slate average of 10.50, driven almost entirely by Williams' excellent stuff on the mound.

Williams brings 190 strikeouts and 11 wins, making him one of the more quietly effective starters in the American League, backed by a filthy 70 xFIP- and 97.2 mph average velocity that produce his 12.17 pNERD — comfortably above the 95th percentile line of 10.50. He did get roughed up last time out, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings against San Diego, so there's some risk of an early hook. Roupp is respectable if unspectacular (5.54 pNERD), with an 86.3 mph average exit velocity, 29.9% hard-hit rate and 5.1% barrel rate undercut by control issues that have limited him to 5.1 innings per start. On the team side, Cleveland's 7.63 tNERD outpaces San Francisco's 4.09, fueled by a young, cheap roster and a bullpen that's been quietly excellent all year. Neither offense is scary, but with Williams dealing, this one's worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Cleveland Guardians

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Milwaukee, sitting comfortably atop the NL Central at 78-48, hosts a Mariners club (59-67) whose offense is basically a museum exhibit on how not to score runs — worth tuning in mostly to watch a good team beat up on a bad one, but there's enough pitching intrigue to justify the watch. George Kirby brings the swing-and-miss stuff you want from an ace, sitting at nearly 97 mph with excellent strike-throwing and a tidy xFIP-, and he owns the highest pNERD in this matchup by a clear margin. Robert Gasser, a former Brewer prospect who debuted back in 2024, counters with solid strike-throwing of his own but middling stuff, netting a more modest pNERD. Seattle's offense has been the team's biggest weakness this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per game, 30th in MLB, with a .229 average and .377 slugging — grim reading for Mariners fans. Milwaukee's tNERD of 9.88 is well above the historical 95th percentile, fueled by strong baserunning, bullpen depth, and a young, affordable roster, while Seattle's 3.02 mark reflects real flaws in fielding and baserunning that its offense-only luck (positive, meaning some regression upward may be coming) hasn't offset yet. With a gNERD of 12.51, this sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — not a marquee event, but a legitimately watchable pitching duel wrapped around a lopsided team quality gap.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Seattle Mariners

Milwaukee Brewers

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Gerrit Cole against a fading Baltimore rotation is the headline here, with the Yankees looking to complete a series sweep against an Orioles team that's lost three straight. The gNERD of 11.70 sits just above the historic average and roughly in line with today's slate, so this is a solidly watchable game without being appointment viewing. Cole's 7.27 pNERD is the engine — his xFIP- of 86 and 96.8 mph heat put him comfortably above average, and he's 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings, last pitching six innings of one-run ball against Toronto. Bradish is a much more middling watch at 2.81 pNERD, with a sluggish pace (21.7s) dragging him down, though he'll make his 25th start with a 3.65 ERA, 8.4 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9, after giving up two earned runs over six innings in his last outing against Tampa Bay. On the offensive side, the Yankees' 7.75 tNERD edges Baltimore's 5.58, both lifted by strong barrel rates, but Samuel Basallo's activation off the injured list gives Baltimore's lineup a jolt, with the catcher carrying 16 home runs and 46 RBI. Not a must-see, but a competent pitching matchup with playoff-race stakes attached.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

A scrappy, low-payroll White Sox team with the best run-differential vibes in Chicago hosts a stumbling Braves squad that's been the unluckiest team in baseball—this one's more compelling than the modest gNERD of 9.66 lets on. Atlanta's -40 luck score is one of the largest team drags in the sport, suggesting a roster (5.39 tNERD) that's better than its record, while Chicago's 8.68 tNERD is buoyed almost entirely by having an MLB-best 76-50 record against the run line this season and a young, bargain-bin roster. On the mound, Grant Holmes (3.21 pNERD) is a mixed bag: he was torched for six earned runs over just 3.2 innings last Saturday against Arizona, though before that he hadn't allowed a run in his previous two starts spanning 12 innings. Anthony Kay (2.04 pNERD) has been steadier if unspectacular—he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last ten starts. Neither arm profiles as a strikeout machine, so don't expect fireworks—this is a game to watch for the Braves' regression-candidate storyline more than the pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Atlanta Braves

Chicago White Sox

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:40a

Summary

Both teams are fading toward .500 with a lot of runway between them and playoff relevance, but this one at least has a couple of decent storylines tucked into an otherwise middling matchup. Michael McGreevy has quietly authored a solid year despite a losing record; he's put together an effective season despite a losing record dictated by uneven run support, and he owns a nice history against Cincinnati specifically, having gone 2-0 with a minuscule 1.42 ERA in three career appearances (all starts) against the Reds. His pNERD (3.55) is modest, dragged down by so-so swinging-strike and strike rates, though his youth helps. Brady Singer's pNERD (4.05) is similarly unspectacular, but he's been steadier lately — he's given the Reds quality starts in four of his last five appearances, including three runs allowed in his last three contests — even if the deeper numbers (104 xFIP-) suggest he's not truly dominant. On the team side, the Cardinals' 6.42 tNERD is buoyed by strong fielding and a young, budget-conscious roster, while the Reds' 4.00 mark is dinged by rough team-wide hitting despite Elly De La Cruz's presence at the top of the order. With a 9.01 gNERD, this sits below the historic average and near the bottom of today's slate — watchable mostly for McGreevy's under-the-radar season and a bit of pitcher-friendly history, not for star power.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:10a

Summary

Solid pitching intrigue and playoff stakes prop up an otherwise middling matchup, with Ian Seymour quietly emerging as the more interesting arm on the mound. The Rays own the AL's best record and have made a habit of owning this rivalry: Tampa Bay has won nine of 12 games over Toronto in 2026 and has taken the season series against the Blue Jays in nine consecutive seasons. Toronto, meanwhile, is scrapping for a wild-card spot, and the Blue Jays are a game behind the Twins for the third and final postseason spot despite having won eight of their past 12 games. Shane Bieber's pNERD sits near replacement level at 0.73—his command metrics (strike rate, swinging-strike rate) are ugly this year—though the former Cy Young winner threw six quality innings in a 3-1 win over the Yankees last time out. Seymour is the real story here: a converted reliever now stretching out as a starter, he posts a strong 7.70 pNERD thanks to a tidy xFIP-, and he's 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three August starts, striking out nine over six innings in his last outing. Tampa's tNERD (5.92) also gets a lift from positive batting and baserunning value plus some positive regression looming. Toronto's low barrel rate and batting runs drag their tNERD down to 2.52. Overall gNERD of 8.43 lands below the day's average—watchable for the Seymour angle, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

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Athletics @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Two last-place teams playing out the string, but a legit power arm on the mound makes this one sneaky watchable. Gage Jump, the Athletics' 23-year-old righty, brings a 96.2 mph fastball and produces a 7.00 pNERD — comfortably above the day's average — even as the ledger shows a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in his first full season. Across the diamond, Randy Dobnak offers a case study in stuff versus results: his sinker sits at 91.8 mph and his 104 xFIP- suggests his 1.73 ERA and 3.50 pNERD are propped up more by soft contact than swing-and-miss. The Athletics, on a three-game losing streak, are meeting Kansas City for the seventh time this season, with the Royals up 4-2 in the series. Both clubs are middling to bad — Oakland sits at 49-77 and Kansas City at 53-74 — and it shows in the tNERD marks, with Kansas City's bullpen (-2.63 z) and Oakland's fielding (-1.74 z) doing real damage. At 7.44, this gNERD lands well below today's 10.50 average — tune in for Jump's arm, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Athletics

Kansas City Royals

Gage Jump, Athletics

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

A last-place club visiting a team clinging to a share of first doesn't sound thrilling, and the numbers back up that instinct — this one grades out as the least-watchable game on the board today. The Angels are buried in the AL West basement at 49-76, 13 games back, while the Astros are only narrowly ahead in the division. Adding some spice: the away team has had the advantage in the last three meetings between these two, and the Astros fell just short of the Angels by a score of 3-1 in the series' second game, with Yordan Alvarez going 0-for-4 and totaling just 4 RBI in his last 13 games compared to 84 in his previous 111. Nolan Schanuel, by contrast, is 8-14 with 6 RBI and 3 runs in his last four games. Grayson Rodriguez brings real stuff — 96.1 mph heat and a tidy age-26 pedigree — but his xFIP- sits below average and he's been running hot on luck, suggesting his results have been better than his skills deserve. Peter Lambert is fine, unspectacular filler. Both team NERDs land well below the historic and today's averages, so unless you're a diehard for either club, feel free to skip this one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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  MLB: What to watch on August 19, 2026