MLB: What to watch on August 22, 2026

• 22 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:15p

Summary

This is the best-looking matchup on the board today, full stop. With a gNERD of 18.64 sitting right at the top of today's slate (today's games range from 4.26 to 18.64) and creeping toward the historic ceiling of 20.20, this Pirates-Dodgers tilt pairs two hard-throwing arms with two lineups that can actually hit.

Tarik Skubal takes the ball for LA sporting the best pitcher score of anyone playing today (11.90), built on a microscopic 65 xFIP-, elite swinging-strike and strike rates, and mid-90s-plus stuff that simply doesn't allow hard contact. On the other side, Jared Jones brings his own well-earned intrigue: he returned from internal brace surgery on his UCL, and the images coming back negative meant he'd avoided a serious injury after getting drilled by a comebacker mid-start. His surface numbers have been rocky since returning, a 5.75 ERA over 20.1 innings with a 1.52 WHIP, but his 98.3 mph average velocity and strong peripherals suggest better days are ahead, and his positive luck score backs that up. The Dodgers' loaded offense (tNERD 8.48) against a scrappy, athletic Pirates club that runs well and gets solid bullpen work rounds out a genuinely well-built game worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Dodgers

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

Miami's Eury Pérez is must-watch stuff, even if the standings around him mean nothing. The 23-year-old right-hander carries a 15-inning scoreless streak into this one and has been Miami's best story of August, posting a 2.00 ERA through three starts this month, backed by 98 mph heat and elite swing-and-miss stuff that gives him the day's best pNERD score by a mile. Jake Irvin, by contrast, is scuffling — a 2-7 record with a 5.80 ERA and an xFIP- that agrees he's been more hittable than lucky, though positive luck does suggest some correction is overdue. Neither the Nationals (61-69) nor Marlins (65-64) are playing for much beyond pride, but both rosters skew young and cheap, which the tNERD model loves — low payrolls, low ages, and Washington's excellent baserunning and barrel rates offset a genuinely miserable bullpen. Miami's own offense is unspectacular but has overperformed its skills all year. CJ Abrams, already banged up, has historically been overmatched against Pérez. With a gNERD near the top of today's slate, this is one where the pitching matchup carries the appeal even if the standings don't.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Logan Henderson pitching against a contending Braves lineup is reason enough to tune in, with a scuffling Martín Pérez along for the ride making this look more like a mismatch than a marquee duel. Henderson has been one of the better stories in Milwaukee's rotation this year, and he carries a 2.70 ERA and 3.39 FIP with 75 strikeouts across 63 1/3 innings, having been fantastic in his last outing against the Dodgers, tossing a career-high seven frames on a career-high 93 pitches, allowing one run on three hits and a walk, striking out six. It's also his first career start against Atlanta. His 9.71 pNERD, built on a sharp xFIP- and strong strike-throwing, dwarfs Pérez's modest 3.37, which reflects diminished velocity and shaky command from the 35-year-old journeyman now with his seventh organization. Milwaukee's tNERD of 10.15 stands out too, fueled by a young, athletic roster, quality baserunning, and a deep bullpen. Combine that with Atlanta's respectable 5.43 team mark and you get a gNERD of 14.33, comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — a good bet if you like watching a rising young arm work against a lineup still trying to solve him.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Atlanta Braves

Milwaukee Brewers

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

A genuine ace against a Yankees team that's quietly been the AL's stingiest pitching staff — this one deserves a spot on your watchlist. Dylan Cease has been a revelation for Toronto this year, making his first All-Star Game this season with a 2.42 ERA and 5.1 WAR, and his 9.81 pNERD (built on elite xFIP- and a 97-mph fastball) reflects it — he's been especially nasty on the road, posting a 1.71 ERA and 6-1 record in 63.1 road innings this year. He struck out double digits against this same Yankees lineup less than a week ago, so expect swings and misses even against a team that's seen his stuff recently. Ryan Weathers isn't just a foil, either — his 7.83 pNERD is well above average, and he's coming off a strong turn against Toronto himself, allowing just one earned run over 7 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays last time out, though his history against them is otherwise rocky. The Yankees' offense brings real thump (best-in-baseball barrel rate) while Toronto's lineup lags, but strong fielding keeps their tNERD from cratering. At 14.23, this gNERD sits comfortably above both the historic and today's-slate averages — a legitimately watchable pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

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New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

A first-place surprise team hosting a fading contender, with a decent pitching matchup that gives this one more juice than the standings suggest. The White Sox sit atop the AL Central and are chasing a bit of history: Chicago is attempting to become the first franchise in MLB history to reach the postseason after consecutive 100-loss campaigns, and every home win tightens that grip. They're a genuinely young, cheap, entertaining club — their tNERD of 8.90 is well above the historic 75th percentile, boosted by rock-bottom payroll and roster age z-scores. The Mets, 17 games back and playing out the string, still bring a respectable 5.35 tNERD and a live bullpen. On the mound, Christian Scott has quietly turned into one of the more interesting arms in the league, and his 6.78 pNERD (driven by strong xFIP- and above-average velocity) leads this game. He's 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 105 strikeouts through 84 2/3 innings, and in his most recent outing he tossed 6 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs. Luis Castillo's surface numbers are rougher, but his xFIP suggests better luck is overdue. Overall gNERD of 13.28 clears the historic median comfortably, making this a solid, if not spectacular, pick.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Chicago White Sox

Christian Scott, New York Mets

Luis Castillo, Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

Wild-card desperation meets a pitching curiosity: this is Padres-Twins with playoff stakes and a fresh-off-the-truck starter trying to prove his disaster debut was a fluke. San Diego, riding a six-game home winning streak and clinging to the NL's third wild-card spot, sends out trade-deadline pickup Casey Mize, who has rebounded from a nightmarish Padres debut, allowing two earned runs and eight hits in 12 innings across his previous two starts, including three hits in six scoreless innings against Cleveland last time out. His 5.22 pNERD reflects modest but real strikeout-and-command upside. Opposite him, Minnesota's Dean Kremer carries a bloated 5.40 ERA but a stingier 92 xFIP-, and his 5.56 pNERD is boosted mostly by tough luck that suggests better results are overdue. The Padres' 9.43 tNERD towers over the Twins' 2.99, powered by an elite bullpen (68.6 runs above average) and sneaky-good fielding — sturdy value while Minnesota's shaky glovework and baserunning drag it down. At 11.60, the gNERD sits a touch above the historical average and right around today's middle of the pack — solid, not spectacular, but the standings pressure on both sides adds real juice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Minnesota Twins

San Diego Padres

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

Casey Mize, San Diego Padres

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

A wild-card scrap dressed up as a mid-August ballgame, with a rookie phenom trying to prove his stuff finally matches his pedigree. Both St. Louis and Philadelphia arrive with plenty on the line — Philadelphia enters riding a season-best six-game winning streak while the Cardinals sit at 66-63, and the Phillies hold a 4.5-game Wild Card cushion over St. Louis, who could climb back into the final playoff spot with a series win. Andrew Painter is the draw here: at just 23, he's this game's only real pNERD asset (6.00, boosted by mid-90s velocity and youth), and in his last start against these same Cardinals he held them hitless until the sixth, allowing two earned runs over 5⅓ innings with six strikeouts. His ERA still looks ugly, but the stuff has clearly ticked up since his Triple-A recall. St. Louis counters with a TBD arm carrying a blank pNERD — pure mystery box. Team-wise, both clubs grade out roughly average (tNERD 6.20 and 5.83), with Philly's excellent bullpen and baserunning offsetting a middling lineup, and St. Louis leaning on stout defense. Nothing screams must-see, but the standings stakes and Painter's trajectory make it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners, 4:15p

Summary

A top pitching prospect finally arrives, even if the stage is his own team's dreary offense. Kade Anderson, the Mariners' No. 1 overall pick and top pitching prospect in baseball, makes his long-awaited MLB debut after a 1.06 ERA over 93.1 innings with 135 strikeouts, 13 walks and 47 hits allowed in the minors — the kind of statline that broke a few projection systems. His pNERD is a placeholder zero simply because he's never thrown a big-league pitch, but the hype is real. He'll be tested immediately by a Cubs lineup that ranks near the top of the NERD spectrum today thanks to elite fielding and strong batting runs (10.45 tNERD), while Seattle's own offense is limping — last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. On the other side, David Peterson has quietly been sharp since joining Chicago, with his rough Cardinals start skewing an otherwise very good stretch, aside from one game against the Cardinals — take that out and he has a 2.21 ERA over 40.2 IP. The 11.50 gNERD sits a bit above average both historically and among today's slate, driven mostly by team quality and pure novelty rather than pitching pedigree.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Seattle Mariners

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

A fine but not electric matchup, elevated mostly by the drama of the Orioles' recent revenge tour against Tampa Bay. Baltimore stormed into this series having dismantled the Rays three straight times, with Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson both surging, while the Rays have gone cold at exactly the wrong time. McClanahan is the headliner here, freshly activated off the injured list after a bout of back tightness and still working back up to a full workload following a rehab stint, but when healthy he's been legitimately excellent — a 3.09-ish xFIP-driven profile with mid-90s velocity and a quick pace that helped push his pNERD to 6.26, comfortably above average. Brandon Young, by contrast, offers modest intrigue as a still-developing arm whose surface numbers (9-3 record) outpace his so-so xFIP-. Tampa's offense has real thump from Junior Caminero, and its team metrics suggest they've been underperforming their skill level and could be due for better results, while Baltimore's barrel rate and bullpen depth round out a competent, if unspectacular, roster. With a gNERD of 10.54, this sits almost exactly at the historical median — worth a look mainly for McClanahan's return, not appointment viewing otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

Interesting matchup on paper, but Cincinnati's offense and Arizona's dominant home-park HR-avoidance record make this a fairly one-sided watch. The Diamondbacks already jumped the Reds 9-0 in this series thanks to a Jordan Lawlar two-run blast, and Arizona sits at 68-61, comfortably ahead of a Cincinnati club stuck at 61-68 and reeling after losing Spencer Steer for the season. Soroka, the well-traveled 28-year-old former All-Star now on his fifth organization, has quietly authored a nice bounce-back year with an 8-3 record, 2.93 ERA, and 88 strikeouts, and his pNERD of 6.17 — boosted by a tidy xFIP- of 86 — is comfortably above average for today's slate. Lowder, by contrast, is still just 24 and finding his footing, but his peripheral numbers (thin strikeout rate, so-so command) drag his pNERD down to 3.87. Team-wise, Arizona's tNERD (5.32) edges Cincinnati's (3.42), with the Reds' offense actively costing them runs. The 9.39 gNERD lands below both the historic and today's averages — competent, but not essential viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 4:15p

Summary

A game with more juice than the raw numbers suggest, mostly because Kansas City has quietly caught fire. The Royals have won seven straight and just knocked off Detroit 5-2, which is a wild story for a team that entered the year hard on the "race for mediocrity" that has the Tigers a mere 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot despite trading their two-time Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Detroit is banged up too, with Riley Greene day-to-day on a hamstring, muddying an already middling offense. On the mound, Drew Anderson is the real draw here, his 7.41 pNERD driven by a sharp xFIP- and above-average whiff and velocity marks, giving Detroit a nice buy-low arm. Michael Wacha is comfortably fine — decent strike-throwing, quick pace — but a below-average whiff rate and a park-inflated xFIP- keep him around replacement-level watchability. With a 9.27 gNERD, this sits below the day's 11.20 average, but Kansas City's shaky bullpen (majors-worst by a mile) means goals could be plentiful if Anderson tires early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox, 4:15p

Summary

A last-place club visiting a team still clinging to fringe playoff hopes rarely screams "must-watch," and the middling gNERD score here agrees. Boston sits 7 games back in the AL East while San Francisco limps in at 52-75, so the stakes are lopsided even if the roster names aren't. The Red Sox lineup has some juice worth watching — Willson Contreras has been a force all season with 26 home runs and 78 RBI, and Caleb Durbin adds 12 home runs, 62 RBI, and 16 stolen bases — while the Giants counter with Luis Arraez hitting .324 with 136 hits and Jung Hoo Lee at .291 with 9 home runs and 46 RBI. On the mound, Blade Tidwell's power arm (95 mph, still just 25) gives him the better pNERD, though his control numbers keep it from popping. Patrick Sandoval's deliberate pace and shaky command drag his score to replacement-level territory. Boston's bullpen and fielding give it a real tNERD edge, but San Francisco's baserunning and barrel rates are dragging anchor. Today's slate ranges up to 18.64, so this one lands closer to forgettable than can't-miss.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Boston Red Sox

Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

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Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

Cleveland's playoff push meets Colorado's lost season in Denver, and the thin air at Coors Field is doing more heavy lifting for entertainment value than either roster. The Guardians are battling for playoff positioning right now, fighting for a spot in the crowded American League wild-card race, while the Rockies are trying to snap a four-game skid and sit at a grim 50-78. Tanner Bibee brings a modest pNERD of 3.27 — his stuff is fine but his plodding pace works against him — and he's making just his second career start against Colorado, his first since his 2023 debut. Gabriel Hughes, Colorado's 25-year-old rookie righty, actually posts the better pNERD (5.65) thanks to youth and some serious positive luck, though that's hard to square with his last outing: four innings while giving up seven earned runs on eight hits against the Giants. The gap in team quality is stark — Cleveland's 7.53 tNERD dwarfs Colorado's 0.76, historically below-average — but Coors Field's altitude has a way of making even lopsided pitching matchups produce chaos. At 8.60, this gNERD sits below the historic average and near the bottom of today's slate, so temper expectations, but a shootout at altitude is always possible.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Colorado Rockies

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 4:05p

Summary

A last-place club visiting a .500ish team isn't the recipe for appointment viewing, and the modest 7.03 gNERD score here backs that up—sitting below the historical average. The Angels roll in at 51-77 but at least arrive with some juice, having just taken two of three from the division-leading Astros, capped by an 18-3 demolition on Thursday. Texas, by contrast, is quietly outperforming its skill-based numbers in a big way—the Rangers' tNERD score gets a hefty boost from a luck component that's about as inflated as it gets, hinting at regression rather than a truly elite roster. On the mound, 23-year-old Ryan Johnson brings youthful intrigue but shaky peripherals (an xFIP- north of 130), leaving his 2.92 pNERD score more "prospect to watch develop" than "must-see arm." Cody Bradford's data-free 0.00 pNERD suggests he simply hasn't logged enough time to grade—worth monitoring if he's working back into a rhythm. Neither lineup is doing much offensively, and both rank near the bottom of MLB in OPS this season. File this one under: skippable unless you're a completionist.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ Houston Astros, 4:10p

Summary

Skip this one unless you're an Astros completist or just enjoy watching a last-place team lose. This is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup by the numbers, and the storylines mostly confirm it.

Both teams are underwhelming: Houston's tNERD (2.93) is modest for a division leader, and Oakland's 2.03 reflects a genuinely bad roster — the Athletics have Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Luis Severino and several others on the injured list, gutting their lineup. Oakland is also mired in a rough stretch, at 49-80 overall and 26-40 in road games, and enters having lost five straight. On the mound, Jacob Lopez's -0.05 pNERD is essentially replacement-level — he carries a career 4.65 ERA, 4.58 FIP and 1.384 WHIP — and his poor strike-throwing and below-average velocity show up clearly in the components. Hunter Brown is the one bright spot, with real velocity (96 mph) pushing his pNERD to 3.60, still just middling overall. With a gNERD of 4.26 — well below the historic average of 10.81 and near the bottom of today's slate (4.26–18.64) — there are far more watchable options on the board today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Athletics

Houston Astros

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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  MLB: What to watch on August 21, 2026