MLB: What to watch on August 21, 2026

• 21 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, 1:10p

Summary

This one has it all: two of the best pitchers in baseball, a real division-race stake, and a preview of a potential October rematch. The gNERD of 20.64 is the top mark of today's slate and among the highest scores in the dataset's history, and once you see the details, it's not hard to see why.

Misiorowski is the headline act, sporting a pNERD of 15.87 that leads the league today, built on a triple-digit fastball (100.7 mph average), a filthy swinging-strike rate, and an xFIP- of 48 that's simply absurd. He's overmatching opponents with a 100-plus mph fastball and a knee-buckling cutter, compiling a big-league-high 210 strikeouts. Across the mound, 37-year-old Sale is no slouch either, still pumping mid-90s heat with elite command, good for a 9.84 pNERD. The pitchers with the major leagues' top two ERAs will go head to head as the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves visit Jacob Misiorowski and the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, with some suggesting it's quite possibly a pitching preview of Game 1 of an NL Division Series matchup. The Brewers' tNERD of 10.14 is buoyed by strong baserunning and bullpen work, giving this one both star power and team quality — a rare slate-topper worth clearing your schedule for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Atlanta Braves

Milwaukee Brewers

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

Two under-.500 teams with surprisingly lively NERD profiles make this one worth a look, even if the standings suggest otherwise. Washington enters on a skid — the Nationals are trying to avoid losing eight of their last 10 games and have lost five of their last six — while Miami is scuffling too, fresh off being swept by the Phillies in three close games, though the Marlins are technically still in the playoff chase, four games behind the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot. Both clubs post tNERD scores around 9.1, well above the historic norm, thanks to young rosters, modest payrolls and (for Miami) a Batting Luck score of 1.60 suggesting their offense should be scoring more than it has. On the mound, Brad Lord has been steady all year — a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.23 K/9 over 62.1 innings — while Ryan Gusto, still hunting his first win, has quietly turned things around, posting a 3.07 ERA through three starts in August. Neither arm is dominant, but both are solid enough to keep this from turning into a slugfest. With a gNERD of 14.79, well above today's average, this one's worth a spot on the watch list.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

A rookie flamethrower with triple-digit heat takes on a reigning World Series MVP, and the Dodgers' offense makes this one worth the late start. Bubba Chandler, the 23-year-old righty still finding his footing, brings a 98-plus mph fastball and has quietly been effective lately — he's allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts while turning in a 2.56 ERA and 2.39 FIP. Yamamoto, meanwhile, is riding a stretch where he's coming off 15 strikeouts and one run allowed over his last two starts, and his xFIP- of 81 backs up the shiny surface numbers — he's arguably been a bit unlucky given how well he's actually pitching. The Dodgers' lineup, led by Ohtani and Freeman, pairs with strong fielding and bullpen work to give LA the best team NERD score in this matchup by a wide margin. At a gNERD of 14.33, this sits comfortably above the historical average and season average alike, driven mostly by Yamamoto's excellence and a genuinely dangerous Dodgers roster — worth carving out time for, even against a sub-.500 Pittsburgh club.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Dodgers

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Toronto’s free-falling on the road, the Yankees have the AL East’s best home mark, and Cam Schlittler looks like the best arm on either roster right now—if you only watch one Yankees-Blue Jays game this weekend, make it this one. Schlittler carries a 10.84 pNERD (well above today's 6.42 average) into a rematch of last week's start, where he brings a 10-6 record and 2.19 ERA into the outing, facing Toronto for the second straight time after allowing one run over 5.1 innings against the Blue Jays on August 15. His xFIP- of 68 and 97.9 mph average velocity back up the hype—this isn't just a hot streak. Toronto, fresh off winning the most recent meeting 4-1 in Toronto on August 15, sends 24-year-old lefty Mason Fluharty to the mound; his 6.22 pNERD is solid but overmatched here. The Yankees' 7.87 tNERD, boosted by an elite barrel rate and strong baserunning, dwarfs Toronto's 2.72, a mark dragged down by weak contact quality and shaky baserunning, though sneaky-good fielding keeps them from bottoming out. At 13.83, the gNERD sits comfortably above the historical average and close to today's slate average—worth carving out three hours for, especially if you like watching a rising ace work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

Mason Fluharty, Toronto Blue Jays

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Jesús Luzardo brings the star power tonight, and the Phillies bring the hot streak — this is the rare "TBD" matchup where one half of the marquee is a legitimate ace. Luzardo carries a 10.62 pNERD, well above the day's 6.42 average, built on nasty stuff: a sub-1.84 z-score xFIP-, a 96.5 mph fastball, and a swinging-strike rate that jumps off the page. He ranks inside the 80th percentile among qualified starters in almost every advanced metric, including xERA and whiff rate, and during his last 21.2 innings, he's allowed just three earned runs. St. Louis counters with Hunter Dobbins, whose lack of pNERD data here just means our models haven't caught up, but his surface numbers are perfectly serviceable. Philadelphia arrives having swept their last two series to go 6-0 in their last 6 games, posting a 2.80 ERA and averaging 6.9 runs per game. The teams themselves are middling on tNERD — the Phillies get a lift from a strong bullpen and good baserunning, the Cardinals from a young, cheap roster and elite fielding — but at 13.80, this gNERD sits comfortably above the historical median, mostly on Luzardo's arm alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Chicago's surprising ascent meets the Mets' late-season stumble, but don't sleep on this one—Sean Burke has quietly become one of the more interesting arms in the AL Central. The White Sox sit atop the division at 66-61 while running one of baseball's youngest, cheapest rosters, which is exactly the underdog cocktail that pushes Chicago's tNERD to 8.60, comfortably above both today's and historical averages. Burke is enjoying a breakout season for Chicago, backing a 3.44 FIP with a strikeout rate near 10 per nine, and his 6.64 pNERD (strong strike-throwing, tidy xFIP-) leads all four starters involved. Manaea isn't just a name-brand innings-eater either—he's pitched into the seventh in two straight outings and completed at least six innings in six of seven starts, looking a lot more like his 2024 self, a nice redemption arc for a guy who began the year in the bullpen. The Mets, despite a 58-70 record and last-place standing, arrive having won four straight Manaea starts. With a 13.31 gNERD comfortably above the historical median, this is a solidly watchable game even if the standings suggest otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Chicago White Sox

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Padres pitching prospect: Randy Vasquez likely opposing, but marked TBD. Let me write summary now.

The Padres bring a top-tier bullpen and a much better team profile, but this one leans more on San Diego's supporting cast than on any pitching duel worth circling on your calendar. Petco Park hosts a series opener where Minnesota, hovering below .500, faces a Padres club that enters this game 7-3 in their last ten, while the Twins sit at a flat 5-5 with a -41 run differential on the season. The gap in team quality shows up in the tNERD gulf — San Diego's 9.37 dwarfs Minnesota's 3.18, fueled by a bullpen that grades out as one of the best in the sample and a fielding unit that's actually saving runs, while the Twins are bleeding value on the bases and in the field. Connor Prielipp takes the ball for Minnesota with a respectable 7.00 pNERD built on plus velocity and youth, though his surface numbers have been rough: Prielipp makes the start for the Twins, his 18th of the season, and is 3-6 with a 5.34 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 87 2/3 innings pitched — a sign his peripherals (and some tough luck) are better than the ERA suggests. The Padres' starter is unlisted, so there's a real feel-it-out element there. Overall, this sits a bit above average on today's slate, worth a look mainly for San Diego's depth and Prielipp's stuff.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Minnesota Twins

San Diego Padres

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

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Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

A Cubs playoff push meets a Mariners team going nowhere, but this one has enough weird texture to make it worth a look. Boyd, a Mercer Island native returning to pitch near his hometown, is coming off a genuinely rough outing — he gave up a record three homers to Cardinals rookie Joshua Baez in his major-league debut, part of a start where he gave up seven runs on five hits in 5.1 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. His modest pNERD (3.87) reflects a pitch-to-contact profile without much whiff upside. Hancock, by contrast, is quietly having a nice year in Seattle: he snapped a string of three straight losses with a 10-5 victory last Saturday at Houston, giving up two runs on five hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts, and his sub-100 xFIP- gives him the better pNERD (6.18) of the two. The Cubs bring a legitimately excellent tNERD (10.21), powered by top-shelf fielding and baserunning, while Seattle's putrid fielding runs drag its tNERD down to 2.79 — a big gap that still nets a solidly above-average gNERD of 11.53, ahead of the historical median and roughly in line with today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Seattle Mariners

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:15p

Summary

A rematch of last Sunday's Rays-Orioles tilt with modest juice — this one leans more "solid weeknight viewing" than must-see, but the recent form angle makes it worth a look. Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers faced off just days ago, and this time Rogers arrives red-hot, posting a 2.28 ERA across 12 outings since June 1, while Peralta has scuffled to a 7.53 ERA in three starts since being traded to Tampa Bay. That shows up in the pNERD gap — Rogers' 5.42 edges Peralta's 4.31, largely on strike-throwing efficiency rather than swing-and-miss stuff, and Peralta's own components get partially bailed out by unsustainable-looking luck. Team-wise it's a coin flip, with Tampa Bay's tNERD (5.72) narrowly topping Baltimore's (5.52); the Rays counter with baserunning value and MLB's 76.9% save rate and MLB-leading 95 holds, while the Orioles bring the better barrel rate. Context matters here too — the Rays sit atop the AL East at 76-51, while Baltimore is mired in a four-game skid at 61-67. Overall gNERD of 10.49 lands right around the historical middle, and slightly below today's slate average — solid, not spectacular.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Rafael Devers returning to Fenway for the first time since his messy exit is the real draw here, not the NERD math—though the pitching matchup isn't bad either. Devers, who once refused to move off third base for Boston and now plays first base every game for San Francisco without complaint, brings his 25 homers back to the ballpark that once booed him, and the storyline alone should pull eyeballs even if the box score doesn't sparkle.

The game will mark the return of Rafael Devers to Fenway Park for the first time since he was traded to the Giants in June 2025, and the three-time All-Star leads the Giants with 25 home runs and plays first base, something he balked at doing during his controversial final few months in Boston. On the mound, Sonny Gray is 15-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 132 2/3 innings, making his 24th start of the season, and his pNERD sits a touch below average — solid xFIP- but a slow pace that costs him. Webb has allowed just two runs in 20 innings this month, propping up his slightly better pNERD via a strong xFIP-. Boston's bullpen (well above average) and Giants' bad luck score (positive luck, suggesting they're due for better results) round out otherwise middling tNERDs. The overall gNERD of 10.21 lands almost exactly at the historical median and below today's average — watchable for the Devers drama, skippable if you need fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Boston Red Sox

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 5:15p

Summary

Los Angeles brings its last-place record to Arlington, but the pitching matchup is genuinely worth your attention even if the offenses aren't. Detmers has quietly turned into the more interesting story here: he's 1-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 44 strikeouts and eight walks over his last six outings, including a season-best outing where he struck out 11 batters and scattered two hits over eight scoreless innings against Kansas City. His 7.53 pNERD — well above today's average of 6.42 — reflects real strikeout stuff and a strong xFIP-. Gore isn't far behind at 6.69, backed by solid velocity and whiff rates, though he enters with a 6-9 record, 4.55 ERA, and 140 strikeouts over 128.2 innings this year, so the results have lagged the stuff a bit. The Rangers' 5.14 tNERD gets an assist from a notably high luck score, meaning their run-scoring has outpaced their underlying batted-ball profile — expect some regression there eventually. The Angels' 0.89 tNERD is about as unwatchable as team offense gets, dragged down by poor baserunning and fielding. Overall gNERD of 10.13 sits almost exactly at the historical median, so this is a solidly average watch, carried mostly by two left-handers worth catching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 5:10p

Summary

Detroit's playoff push runs into a Kansas City team that refuses to read the standings—this one's got some late-summer intrigue even if the overall NERD score sits just below average. The Tigers have lost five of their last six, including a sweep at home to the Chicago White Sox and dropping two of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates, yet arrive still well within striking distance of a wildcard spot in a weak American League playoff race. Meanwhile the Royals, cellar-dwellers on paper, have won five straight and six of the last seven—Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone doing the heavy lifting. On the mound, Troy Melton (pNERD 7.64, comfortably above today's 6.42 average) brings mid-90s velocity, a sharp xFIP-, and a quick pace that makes him the best reason to tune in; Noah Cameron is more pedestrian but tidy enough. Detroit's tNERD (4.15) edges Kansas City's (2.56), largely because the Royals bullpen has been a disaster zone all year. Combined gNERD of 10.08 lands squarely in the middle of the pack historically—watchable, not essential, but Melton's start alone is worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Cleveland's playoff push meets Colorado's lost season at altitude, and the pitching mismatch is the whole story here. Joey Cantillo has quietly become a steady mid-rotation piece — he's trying for his 10th victory in his 27th start, sporting a 3.80 ERA over 125 2/3 innings with 139 strikeouts, and his last time out he tossed six innings, surrendering one earned run. His pNERD (5.77) reflects sneaky whiff ability and youth. Across the mound, Tanner Gordon has had a rough go of it: he's 0-3 looking for his first win of the season, making his first start since before the All-Star break, having worked out of the bullpen 12 times. His pNERD (5.51) is buoyed mostly by strong strike-throwing and some positive regression-due luck. Team-wise, it's lopsided — Cleveland's 7.42 tNERD (fueled by a young, bargain-payroll roster) dwarfs Colorado's anemic 1.06, weighed down by poor batting and fielding marks. The gNERD of 9.88 sits below the historic median, and well under today's slate average, so treat this as a background game unless you just enjoy watching Coors Field inflate mediocre pitching into fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Colorado Rockies

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Not much on the marquee here, but there's enough churn beneath the surface to make it watchable in a low-key way. Arizona is fighting to stay in the wild-card race after a rough week in Boston, and things got weirder when All-Star Ketel Marte didn't show up at Fenway Park for Monday's game, was placed on the restricted list, then moved to the injured list after an MRI showed inflammation in his left knee. On the mound, Eduardo Rodriguez owns the better peripherals, though he's walked into trouble against Cincinnati before — he walked a season-high five batters in 2 2/3 innings during Arizona's 5-2 win over the Reds back in June. Nick Lodolo, for his part, is still building back up after being sidelined by a recurring blister on his left index finger, and his last start was actually sharp — five scoreless innings against Miami. Statistically, though, neither pitcher grades out as a difference-maker (pNERD scores of 2.10 and 3.10, both below the season median), and Cincinnati's offense has been genuinely bad all year, dragging the Reds' tNERD to 3.71. Arizona's tNERD of 5.06 is buoyed by strong baserunning and fielding, giving this game a modest 6.99 gNERD — below both the historical and today's averages. Watch if you're into blister recoveries and playoff-race subplots; skip if you need star power.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Athletics @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Two last-place-adjacent AL West also-rans meet in a game whose gNERD score sits well below average, and not much in the surrounding storylines pushes it up. This is a bottom-of-the-standings affair: the Athletics (49-79) and Astros (64-64) both carry unspectacular team NERD marks, with Oakland's putrid fielding and baserunning (both among the game's ugliest z-scores) dragging their tNERD to 2.17, while Houston's 3.15 gets a boost from solid batted-ball quality but is undercut by shaky baserunning and an underwhelming Astros rotation that's vulnerable with Blanco, Javier, and Wesneski all underperforming this season. Wesneski himself is walking in off a rough outing — making his fifth start this season after giving up five earned runs in four innings in his last outing against Seattle — though his pNERD of 5.02 still edges Ginn's 3.36, helped by strong swinging-strike marks and some positive regression expected given his underperforming luck score. Ginn brings a decent walk year overall but his stuff metrics (poor strike rate, plodding pace) keep him modest. With Houston's offense recently running cold and Oakland's power surging a bit, expect scoring, but not appointment viewing — this one ranks near the lower half of today's slate and well below the historical average gNERD.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Athletics

Houston Astros

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Hayden Wesneski, Houston Astros

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