MLB: What to watch on August 23, 2026

• 23 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

I'll proceed with the information gathered from the successful searches.

A rookie sensation with a knee-buckling curveball squares off against a bullpen journeyman having a career revival, on a Chicago South Side surprise team that's quietly become one of baseball's youngest and most fun outfits. This one clears the bar for watchability, and the numbers back up the eyeball test.

Nolan McLean, the Mets' 24-year-old with what scouts already call one of the best curveballs in the league, brings a 7.98 pNERD built on a stingy xFIP- and electric stuff. He had his worst start of the season last time out, surrendering five earned runs over five innings, though he's still pitched to a 3.42 ERA in 24 starts this season. After his midseason call-up to the majors last year, he lit up stuff models en route to a sparkling ERA and WHIP, sitting mid-90s with two fastballs and a curveball that grades as one of the best in the game. Across the mound, Sean Newcomb isn't a household name but posts a respectable 5.61 pNERD, helped by a fast pace and solid contact management, even while absorbing some rough puck. The White Sox, sporting the league's youngest roster and a payroll near the bottom of MLB, still have out-produced expectations at the plate, giving this game a tNERD of 8.74 that dwarfs the Mets' 5.43. With a gNERD of 13.88, well above the historical average and near the top of today's slate, this is one worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Chicago White Sox

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Sean Newcomb, Chicago White Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:35a

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez is having the kind of season that makes an ace's Sunday start must-watch, and this rubber-adjacent finale between two teams still fighting for playoff positioning gives it real stakes on top of the pitching. Sánchez brings a 10.09 pNERD — well above today's average — built on a strikeout-heavy, ground-ball profile that's produced a sparkling xFIP- of 61 and elite swinging-strike and strike rates; he's compiled a 2.51 ERA with 187 strikeouts and has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. Leahy is a serviceable middle-of-the-pack arm (5.42 pNERD) with a strong xFIP- of 88 but low whiff numbers, and he'll need to keep the ball down against a Phillies lineup fueled by Schwarber's MLB-leading power. The Phillies enter riding a seven-game winning streak, while the Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and rank near the bottom of the league offensively. Both teams carry middling tNERD scores buoyed more by bullpen and baserunning quirks than star power, so the appeal here is almost entirely Sánchez — watch for the strikeouts, not the offense. Overall gNERD of 13.68 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, making this one of the better-watch options on the slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Summary

The Little League Classic gives this one a fun backdrop, and the Brewers' NL-best roster gives it real substance too. Milwaukee brings the majors' most well-rounded lineup to Williamsport, and their 10.03 tNERD - built on strong baserunning, a deep bullpen, and a young, cost-effective roster - ranks near the top of today's slate. Atlanta, by contrast, is a middling 5.08 tNERD outfit still shaking off a rough season, though a hefty barrel rate suggests some thump in the lineup once the puck-luck evens out; Atlanta's batting and baserunning numbers are actually underperforming their skill level, hinting at better days ahead.

On the mound, it's a matchup of newcomers: Mahle was acquired by the Braves at the trade deadline in a deal with the Giants, his fifth team in a decade of ball. His 5.18 pNERD is respectable, buoyed almost entirely by tough luck - his peripherals suggest he deserves better than his ERA shows. Drohan, a rookie lefty making his first career appearance against Atlanta, actually out-scores him at 6.44 pNERD thanks to a tidy xFIP and easy velocity. Add it up and you get a 13.37 gNERD, comfortably above both the season's median and today's average - a legitimately watchable game featuring exactly the kind of stage MLB likes to put in a Little League ballpark.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Atlanta Braves

Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

A near-.500 pitching matchup wrapped around one of the widest fielding gaps in baseball, with the Cubs' defense doing some serious heavy lifting. Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.77 ERA) brings a sharp changeup-driven approach with strong whiff and strike rates, while Bryce Miller (4-7, 3.71 ERA) pairs upper-90s velocity with elite command — Miller (4-7, 3.71 ERA) is eyeing win No. 5 on the season, and the Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.77 ERA). Miller also happens to be pitching on his 28th birthday, for what it's worth. The real story is the team gap: Chicago's tNERD (10.47) is elite, fueled by standout fielding and batting runs, while Seattle's tNERD (2.46) is dragged down by a defense that's a genuine liability — the Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the weakest among every team on the slate today. With Pete Crow-Armstrong leading off and holding the platoon edge against Miller, the Cubs' athleticism could exploit that leaky glove work all afternoon. At 13.18, this gNERD sits comfortably above the day's 10.18 average and the historical median, making it one of the more watchable matchups on the slate, even if neither pitcher is a household name outside their own dugout.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Seattle Mariners

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

Two rebuilding-ish NL East also-rans meet in Miami, and somehow the metrics say pay attention anyway. Both Washington and Miami post team NERD scores north of 9, comfortably ahead of the historic average of 5.6 and pushing into the top quartile of scores logged today, thanks to young, athletic rosters that run well and hit the ball hard — Washington's baserunning and barrel rates pop, Miami counters with slick fielding and a deep, useful pen. The Marlins also carry a notably positive luck score, meaning their results have lagged their true talent, so more late-inning good fortune may be overdue. The pitching matchup is the wobbly part: Jackson Kent is a 23-year-old rookie lefty making just his second big-league start after debuting August 12, so there's no track record to lean on yet, while Janson Junk has quietly turned things around, posting a 3.21 FIP-supported stretch in August that included a two-run, five-inning outing against Philadelphia. With a gNERD of 12.90, this one clears the historic average handily on the strength of the lineups and lands solidly above today's midpoint — worth a look if you like watching prospects find their footing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins

Jackson Kent, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

A star-studded mismatch on paper, redeemed by genuine intrigue around the guy on the bigger mound. Blake Snell, two-time Cy Young winner and last year's World Series champion, is only three starts back from the injured list, and he's looked sharp doing it — he's pitched six strong innings in each of his first two times out since returning. That's a real story worth tuning in for, even though his pNERD comes back at a flat zero simply because we don't have enough fresh data to grade him yet. Opposite him, the Pirates are trotting out journeyman Lake Bachar in what's essentially a bullpen-game concession, having already dropped the first two games of this series and continuing to bleed a 63-68 record. Bachar's modest 4.24 pNERD is driven almost entirely by a nice swinging-strike rate offset by shaky command. On the team side, the Dodgers' 8.39 tNERD — boosted by elite batting and barrel rates — pairs with Pittsburgh's surprisingly feisty 6.95 mark (mostly from baserunning) to produce a 12.29 gNERD, comfortably above both the historical and today's-slate averages. Watch for Snell's health more than the scoreboard.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lake Bachar, Pittsburgh Pirates

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox, 12:15p

Summary

Matt Wilkinson's major league debut against a Red Sox club riding a walk-off high gives this one a spark you don't often get from a last-place team's road trip finale. San Francisco is scheduled to counter with left-hander Matt Wilkinson, who will make his major league debut. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning without a run before three unlikely heroes delivered a stunning walk-off victory over the Giants the night before, and now Boston looks to complete the sweep. With no track record for Wilkinson (pNERD sits at the default zero), Jake Bennett carries this matchup's pitching intrigue: the 25-year-old lefty's 94 xFIP- and youth push his pNERD to a solid 6.64, though his last appearance came Aug. 14, when he threw four innings against the Pirates, giving up four earned runs — a rockier line than his season numbers suggest. Boston's tNERD (6.65) outpaces San Francisco's (4.15), fueled largely by an excellent bullpen and some positive regression-candidate luck; the Giants, mired in a three-game skid at 52-77, bring middling offense and defense to the table. At 11.22, the gNERD lands almost exactly at today's average — watchable mostly for the debut novelty, not the overall talent gap.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Boston Red Sox

Matt Wilkinson, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

Not the Sunday-brunch snoozer you'd expect from a Blue Jays-Yankees series finale — this rubber match actually has some juice. Toronto and New York split the first two games of the set, with the Blue Jays taking Saturday's contest 4-3 to force the decider, and Toronto has won 6 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, so there's a real series stake on the table even with the Jays hovering around .500 and chasing a wild card spot.

José Soriano is the headliner here, and deservedly so — his 7.01 pNERD is comfortably above average, built on mid-90s-plus velocity and a strong SwStr% that props up an xFIP- in the low 90s. Soriano has posted a 2.22 ERA over his first three starts with the Blue Jays, giving Toronto a workhorse who should keep this competitive deep into the game. Carlos Rodón, by contrast, grades out as a modestly below-average pull at 3.65 pNERD, with a strike rate that lags the league; still, he carries a 3.55 ERA over his last five starts, and interestingly, the Blue Jays have been destroying lefty pitchers lately, batting .365 with 6.4 runs per game over the last five games — a matchup wrinkle worth watching. On the team side, the Yankees' 7.96 tNERD is buoyed by strong barrel rate and baserunning marks, while Toronto's fielding is its calling card. A gNERD of 10.94 sits right around the historical middle but above today's slate average — solidly watchable, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

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Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

I've got enough to write the summary now.

A getaway-day matchup with two soft-tossers straddling league average, saved mostly by a Padres bullpen that's been lights-out and a broadcast crew worth tuning in for. Minnesota's Bailey Ober comes in having scuffled lately — a 5.47 ERA over his past five starts, giving up eight hits twice over that stretch — and his velocity (88 mph) and swinging-strike rate are both well below average, though a quick pace keeps things moving. Walker Buehler took a tough-luck loss last time out, allowing just two hits and two earned runs across six innings, and his 4.46 pNERD (nearly double Ober's) reflects a positive Luck bump suggesting his ugly ERA understates his actual stuff. The Padres' 9.42 tNERD is the story on the offense side — miles above Minnesota's 3.29 — driven by an excellent bullpen, strong fielding, and the best broadcast ratings in the sample, while their actual bat production has lagged. Minnesota, ironically, has outscored San Diego per game this year despite the worse record. With a combined gNERD of 9.64, slightly below the historic average and below today's slate average, this isn't appointment viewing, but Buehler's underlying numbers and Petco's quality defense give it a bit more juice than the raw pitching matchup suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Minnesota Twins

San Diego Padres

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

A first-place team against a fifth-place division rival with a losing pitcher isn't the sexiest pitch, but there's just enough here to keep the remote away for nine innings. The Rays roll into Camden Yards riding a three-game skid, and Nick Martinez—last time out against Toronto he lasted just 3⅔ innings, allowing six earned runs on nine hits—will want a bounce-back after that clunker, even though his season-long 3.05 ERA still looks sharp. Shane Baz, by contrast, is quietly the better bet for entertainment: he's traded stints with Tampa Bay for Baltimore and, despite a lopsided 4-13 record, just gave up three earned runs on four hits over 6⅓ innings against the Yankees, and his 95.8 mph average heater and reasonable xFIP- give him the highest pNERD of the day's two starters. Neither pitcher's overall NERD grades will make anyone rearrange their schedule—both sit below average, with Martinez actually dragged down by a rough strike/whiff profile. The Orioles' offense has had modest thump lately, 17 home runs over the past 10 games and a .424 slugging clip with 2.9 extra-base hits per game, which nudges their tNERD slightly above Tampa Bay's. With a gNERD of 9.33, sitting just below today's average, this is a fine background game rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

A last-place matchup redeemed by a hot streak and playoff-week desperation — not thrilling on paper, but there's a story here. The Royals are pushing a seven-game winning streak into this one, while the Tigers are trying to snap a four-game skid, so at least someone's playing with urgency even if both clubs sit under .500. The Tigers' rotation is banged up enough that they're sending out a mystery arm (the box score TBD carries a 0.00 pNERD since we've got nothing to grade), which knocks a chunk off this game's ceiling.

Daniel Lynch IV is the one going for Kansas City, and his 4-4 record with a 2.83 ERA and 41 strikeouts undersells how sharp he's been of late — his 4.94 pNERD is built on a strong swinging-strike rate and a notably deliberate pace that actually works in his favor here. Both offenses are middling — Detroit's tNERD of 3.93 and Kansas City's 3.08 are unspectacular, dragged down further by the Royals' bullpen, which has been dreadful over the season but has quietly cleaned things up recently. With a gNERD of 8.48, this sits below the day's 10.18 average — watchable if Lynch is on, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

This one's a mismatch dressed up as a series finale, and the numbers back it up—watch only if you enjoy Coors Field batting practice. The Guardians, clinging to their AL wild-card hopes, roll into Denver battling for playoff positioning right now, fighting for a spot in the crowded American League wild-card race, while the Rockies are simply trying to avoid triple-digit losses. Foster Griffin, Cleveland's big acquisition for the Guardians at the trade deadline, has been solid since arriving—against San Francisco in his last start, Griffin fired six innings, allowing one run, while striking out six—and his 5.75 pNERD is comfortably above average. Sugano, on the other hand, is trying to shake off a rough Dodgers start where he was roughed up in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, with Los Angeles scoring six runs on seven hits over five innings; his 0.44 pNERD reflects that fragility. Colorado's 0.69 tNERD sits near the historical basement, dragged down by weak batting and fielding marks, even though the Rockies can occasionally out-hit their way past bad pitching at altitude. The 7.04 gNERD lands below both the historic and today's averages—competent but skippable.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Colorado Rockies

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

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Athletics @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

This is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup that only makes sense if you're an A's completist or enjoy watching bad baseball. Both teams are well below average by tNERD, and while Houston just took the series opener behind Daulton Varsho's homer, Oakland stole one back on Saturday with a three-run eighth-inning rally to snap a five-game skid. Sunday's rubber match features Brady Basso, who'll likely serve as the opener, with right-hander Jack Perkins probable to work as the bulk pitcher — an unusual setup that at least adds some novelty, and his strong strike-throwing and low xFIP- give him a surprisingly solid 6.45 pNERD. Cristian Javier is the drag here: he's coming off a third straight defeat and is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts this month, and his bloated xFIP- confirms the ugly peripherals behind that ERA — though his positive luck score suggests some regression toward respectability. The Astros' offense and bullpen give them a slight edge on paper, but with a combined gNERD of 5.99, well below today's 10.18 average, there's little reason to prioritize this one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Athletics

Houston Astros

Brady Basso, Athletics

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

This is a get-in-under-the-radar game featuring two teams with very different trajectories, and neither pitcher gives you a strong reason to clear your schedule. The Angels are buried at 51-78 while the Rangers sit around .500 and still have designs on a wild-card berth, and Texas took two of the first two meetings in this series, including a one-hitter behind a rookie no-hitter bid on Saturday.

The gNERD here is 5.97, well below the historical median (10.8) and today's average (10.2), so temper expectations. Kikuchi brings the more interesting arm of the two, sitting 95.5 mph with a pNERD of 4.71 and a positive luck score suggesting his results have actually lagged his stuff — he might be sharper than his numbers show. Quantrill, by contrast, owns a middling 115 xFIP- and a low swinging-strike rate, netting a paltry 1.09 pNERD. On the team side, the Rangers' 5.13 tNERD is propped up almost entirely by a big positive luck score (their underlying numbers suggest they've been underperforming, so better days may be ahead), while the Angels' 1.00 tNERD reflects a lineup and defense that have simply been bad all year. Not a must-watch, but not nothing either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:15p

Summary

This is a bottom-of-the-barrel matchup on paper, but the two clubs have been playing wildly inconsistent baseball that at least makes it unpredictable. Cincinnati and Arizona split a wild back-to-back — the Reds were shut out 9-0 one night, then rode JJ Bleday's cycle to an 11-5 win the next, so nobody should assume either offense shows up quietly. The pitching matchup, though, is the weak link: Andrew Abbott's 2.18 pNERD is unremarkable but respectable, buoyed by his last outing where he went 6 1/3 innings, allowed four hits, two runs, and struck out six against St. Louis. Mitch Bratt, on the other hand, is a 22-year-old with almost no track record and it shows — his -1.59 pNERD is among the worst of any pitcher today, driven by a bloated xFIP- and a 15.7% strikeout rate and 13.8% walk rate that create inefficient innings. Team-wise, Arizona's tNERD (5.40) narrowly edges Cincinnati's (3.76), largely on defense and baserunning, but neither roster is thrilling. With a gNERD of 4.87, well below both the historic and today's averages, this one is more lottery ticket than must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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