MLB: What to watch on August 29, 2026

• 29 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Two of the majors' hottest arms right now, and the numbers back it up — this is the best gNERD score of the day and near the top of the season's charts. Cade Cavalli has been the Nationals' unlikely revelation, riding a stretch where he's won four straight decisions and racked up 169 strikeouts, and his 7.66 pNERD (comfortably above today's average) reflects filthy peripherals — a 77 xFIP- and mid-90s heat, even if his deliberate pace docks him a bit. Across the mound, Alcantara, in his second season back from Tommy John surgery, is returning to his Cy Young Award form, and has allowed either one or zero runs in seven of his past 10 starts — he'll also make his 198th career start, passing Ricky Nolasco for the Marlins' all-time record. Both lineups pull their weight too: Washington's offense grades out well above average on batting runs and barrel rate, while Miami counters with elite baserunning and the game's positive underlying-luck signal suggesting more offense than their results show. The Nationals' bullpen is a legitimate soft spot, so if the starters tire, expect the scoring to open up late. Overall, a rare case where the pitching matchup and the underlying team metrics are both pulling in the same direction — appointment viewing for a Saturday.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Blake Snell dominant against overmatched Detroit lineup makes this a strong watch, even if the Tigers side of the equation is mostly filler. Snell, back from elbow surgery that cost him four months, has been nails since returning—lasting exactly six innings in each of his three starts thus far while allowing only two total runs and seven hits—and his 10.26 pNERD reflects a filthy strikeout rate backed by elite peripherals (his xFIP- of 72 is comfortably one of the best marks you'll see, and today's average pitcher NERD sits at 4.59, so he's operating well above the field). Opposing him is Keider Montero, who's quietly had a solid season for Detroit but is being handled carefully after showing signs of fatigue from a career-high workload, and his modest 3.50 pNERD shows it. The Dodgers' 8.58 tNERD (well above today's 5.69 average) is built on strong batting and bullpen numbers, while Detroit's 3.33 is dragged down by shaky baserunning and fielding. At 12.83, the gNERD clears today's average of 10.35 and sits above the historical median, mostly on Snell's arm alone—worth tuning in even if Detroit's lineup looks overmatched on paper.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Detroit Tigers

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

A tight AL East ballgame at Yankee Stadium with a surprisingly potent Boston bullpen and a Yankees lineup that mashes barrels—there's more here than just rivalry theater. The Red Sox enter at 73-60, 39-28 on the road while the Yankees sit 75-58, 34-30 at home, so both clubs have real stakes in this one, and it comes with the usual Red Sox-Yankees baggage—Boston fired Alex Cora after a rough 10-17 start and has been playing under interim skipper Chad Tracy ever since, a subplot that's quietly reshaped their season. On the mound, 25-year-old Jake Bennett is the more interesting arm here, pairing a strong xFIP- with excellent control for his age, giving him a tidy 6.83 pNERD; Carlos Rodón, at 33, is more pedestrian by these metrics, his below-average strike rate dragging him to a modest 3.09. Boston's bullpen (one of the best gains in this matchup) and Luck score suggest better days ahead, while the Yankees' standout barrel rate keeps their offense scary. Combined gNERD of 12.46 sits solidly above the historical average, making this an easy one to pencil in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:15p

Summary

A tight AL East series finale with plenty riding on it, even if the Red Sox starter remains a mystery. Boston and New York are locked in a genuine playoff-race dogfight, and Friday's series opener set the tone with Cam Schlittler tossing a near-shutout that left the Red Sox scoreless and stranding runners everywhere. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both on the 60-Day IL for New York, while Boston's own injury list has quietly gutted its lineup depth, which helps explain why both offenses have gone cold lately. On the mound, Max Fried anchors things with a strong xFIP- of 86, translating to a solid 4.46 pNERD, though his plodding pace works against him in the components. With no name yet attached to Boston's start, that half of the pitching ledger is a blank. Team-wise, the Yankees' scorching barrel rate and Boston's shutdown bullpen (backed by a positive luck score suggesting more run support is coming) give this game a 12.23 gNERD—comfortably above the historical and today's averages—making it one of the more watchable options on the board despite the pitching uncertainty.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:15p

Summary

The Brewers are the best show in baseball right now, and this game gives them a chance to keep proving it at home against a Rangers team that can't buy a road win. Milwaukee sits 2 games ahead of the Dodgers for the best record in baseball with four weeks left to sharpen their postseason positioning, while Texas sits 2 games back in the AL West after losing the division lead this week, with road struggles that have defined their season. That disparity shows up clearly in the tNERD gap — Milwaukee's 10.15 crushes Texas's 5.30, fueled by strong baserunning, bullpen depth, and a notably young roster. On the mound, Shane Drohan brings a respectable 6.36 pNERD with above-average strikeout stuff and a lively fastball, while Cal Quantrill's 1.84 reflects middling whiff rates and a mediocre xFIP-. Texas's absurd +2.00 luck component suggests they've actually been better than their record shows and could be due for better results, but that's a slow-burn story, not a reason to tune in today. At 11.82, this game lands modestly above the historical average — watchable mostly for Milwaukee's continued dominance rather than a marquee pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Texas Rangers

Milwaukee Brewers

Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Good, I have enough information now. Let me write the summary.

The Cubs' spectacular defense and lineup depth make this one worth flipping on, even if the pitching matchup is lopsided on paper. Chicago enters having just dropped three straight and is trying to shake off a mini-slump at home, but the underlying team profile is elite — Wrigley's crew ranks near the top of the league in batting runs and fielding, and it shows in a tNERD score of 10.25, one of the best you'll see today. Cincinnati, by contrast, is scuffling on both sides of the ball, with a below-average offense and shaky bullpen dragging its tNERD down to 4.48. On the mound, Kevin Gausman is coming off his best start in a Cubs uniform and brings a nasty splitter that's been getting swings-and-misses all year; his 6.40 pNERD reflects strong peripheral numbers (a tidy xFIP-) that make his ERA look almost like bad luck. Andrew Abbott, meanwhile, is fighting free-pass problems — a 1.40 WHIP and a career-high walk rate — that undercut his strikeout stuff, landing him at a modest 2.32 pNERD. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 11.72, comfortably above both the historical and today's-slate averages, buoyed almost entirely by the Cubs' side of the ledger.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

A modest little series matinee between two 68-68 clubs clinging to fading postseason hopes, elevated mainly by Kyle Leahy quietly having a nice season. The Cardinals are 4½ games back of the final NL wild-card spot, and Leahy—a converted reliever who's stuck in the rotation—is posting his most innings since 2022, having spent his first two full seasons purely in relief. He's been on an innings limit lately, and his last outing was four scoreless, two-hit innings in a loss to Philadelphia, so don't expect a marathon start here. He's also historically owned Pittsburgh, posting a 1.93 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings against the Pirates the past two seasons. His 5.46 pNERD, built on a sharp xFIP-, is the best individual number on the mound today. Opposite him, Lake Bachar is essentially an opener, with Carmen Mlodzinski (1.75 ERA in 11 relief appearances) likely following in bulk. Team-wise, Pittsburgh's baserunning and bullpen give it a modest edge in tNERD, while St. Louis leans on a young, cheap roster and strong glove work despite an ugly bullpen. Nothing here screams must-watch, but Leahy's matchup history against Pittsburgh adds a sliver of intrigue to an otherwise average, right-in-the-middle-of-the-pack gNERD of 10.86.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals

Lake Bachar, Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays, 1:10p

Summary

A playoff-race clash between a division leader and a wild-card hopeful, with two veteran arms who've taken very different roads to get here. The Rays enter having claimed the AL East, while the San Diego Padres sit at 72-62 as they push for NL Wild Card positioning, and their core remains formidable, with Tatis and Machado still doing the heavy lifting. Walker Buehler carries an 8-6 record with a bloated 4.63 ERA into this one, and the underlying numbers back up the shakiness—his swinging-strike and strike-throwing rates are both well below average, though a bit of positive luck (his ERA outrunning his xFIP-implied performance) should help going forward. Nick Martinez, by contrast, is 13-4 with a tidy 2.93 ERA and the best strike-throwing component of the day, even if his xFIP suggests some regression could be coming. Tampa Bay's offense drags the Rays' tNERD down thanks to a brutal barrel rate, but San Diego's excellent bullpen, glove work, and broadcast reputation push this game a tick above average—solidly middle-of-the-pack watchability, elevated mostly by the stakes rather than the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Tampa Bay Rays

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 1:10p

Summary

Not much detail on Lynch/Griffin specifically came through, but I have solid team storylines. Let me write the summary now.

A last-place Royals club trying not to slide any further faces a Cleveland team clinging to wild-card hopes, and neither lineup is scaring anyone. Kansas City enters buried at 60-75, while the Guardians sit at 68-66, and this series carries real weight for Cleveland as it tries to stay within shouting distance of a playoff spot. On the mound, Foster Griffin (pNERD 5.64) is the more interesting arm here, with a strong xFIP- of 91 and a well-above-average strike rate driving his above-average score; Daniel Lynch IV (pNERD 4.61) counters with a slow, deliberate pace that actually helps his NERD number despite middling peripherals. Cleveland's tNERD (7.02) is buoyed by a young, cheap roster (payroll and age both scoring well) plus strong baserunning and fielding, even though the Guardians' barrel rate is ugly. Kansas City's tNERD (3.87) is dragged down hard by a bullpen that's been a disaster all year, though the Royals are somewhat unlucky and could be better than their results. Combined gNERD of 10.57 lands almost exactly at today's average — a perfectly ordinary game, elevated mainly by Cleveland's playoff stakes rather than anything happening between the lines.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

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Houston Astros @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

Nolan McLean is having a breakout year and is a legitimate reason to tune in — he leads the majors in strikeouts, sits mid-90s, and pairs a filthy xFIP with genuine rookie-year novelty. Everything else surrounding this game is filler. Houston, fresh off winning a series from the Yankees for the first time since mid-August and still clinging to an AL West lead, is trying to squeeze value out of a bullpen day: left-hander Bennett Sousa will serve as an opener for the Astros in his first big league start, with Cristian Javier likely following in a bulk relief role. That patchwork approach explains Sousa's blank pNERD — there's simply no track record to grade — while McLean's 7.92 pNERD (age, velocity, and a sparkling xFIP- all contributing) anchors nearly all the watchability here. The Mets, losers of three straight and scuffling to a 4-6 stretch, aren't doing McLean many favors on offense, but their bullpen and barrel rates give them a modest tNERD edge over Houston's punchless, base-running-averse roster. Yordan Alvarez, hitting .318 with 36 homers, is the one Astros bat worth watching if Houston's arms falter. Overall, a middling gNERD of 10.37 sits almost exactly at today's average — watch for McLean, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Houston Astros

New York Mets

Bennett Sousa, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels, 7:07p

Summary

Good, I have plenty. Let me write the summary.

Cristopher Sánchez is putting on a clinic this season, and the Angels have one of the league's worst offenses to serve as his latest victim. Philadelphia enters clinging to a wild-card spot with Atlanta just five games ahead, and this series in Anaheim matters more than it looks on paper — the Phils sit only two games up on the field with Arizona lurking, and they head straight to Arizona after this trip. Sánchez himself has been dazzling: over his last five starts, he has allowed seven earned runs in 29 2/3 innings, a 2.12 ERA, with 37 strikeouts, and his pNERD of 10.19 (elite xFIP-, well above-average swinging-strike rate) reflects exactly that. Ryan Johnson, by contrast, is a 23-year-old getting his feet wet against a lineup featuring Schwarber (fresh off becoming MLB's first 40-homer hitter) and Harper — his 2.62 pNERD is propped up mostly by youth and some bad luck rather than actual results. The Angels' offense drags this down further, with anemic team NERD numbers across batting, baserunning, and fielding. Philly's own bullpen strength adds intrigue, but with a punchless home team fighting nothing but attendance figures, this game trails the day's average — watch for Sánchez's start, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Angels

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

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Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

A rebuilding Athletics team hosts a hard-luck Orioles ace with strikeout stuff, and that combination alone makes this worth a peek despite modest team NERD scores. Shane Baz brings a mid-90s fastball and a genuinely brutal 2026 to Sacramento — he's 4-14 with a 4.04 ERA and 135 strikeouts, and he leads the league with 14 losses despite allowing three or fewer runs in 19 of his 26 starts, because the Orioles just don't score runs for this guy. His pNERD of 4.34 reflects solid velocity and xFIP but a plodding pace that drags the number down. Across the mound, rookie Jack Perkins actually posts the higher pNERD (6.24) on the strength of big underlying luck regression upside and a lively arm, even though this year he's 3-9 with a 6.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, arguably the worst starter in Oakland's rotation. Team-wise, it's lopsided: Baltimore's 6.04 tNERD (thanks to barrels and bullpen) dwarfs Oakland's 1.89, a roster hurt badly by a middling offense and shaky glovework. At 9.25, the gNERD sits below today's average of 10.35 — watchable for the pitching intrigue, skippable if you need offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Athletics

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Jack Perkins, Athletics

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Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

A hyped rookie lefty against a hard-throwing Blue Jays starter, in a game that's watchable mostly because of the storylines rather than the raw numbers. Kade Anderson, Seattle's 22-year-old third-overall pick, is barely a week into his big-league career, and while we don't have enough big-league data yet to give him a pNERD score, his backstory is the real draw here: he arrived after leading the minors in ERA (1.06), WHIP (0.64), strikeout rate (40.5%) and opponents' batting average, and in his debut he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits and striking out five, in a game Seattle won 5-3. He's being counted on to jolt a Mariners team that's picked to win the American League West but is currently six games under .500, three games out of first. On the other side, José Soriano brings real stuff to the mound, sitting near the top of today's pitcher NERD leaderboard on the strength of a live mid-90s fastball, plus strikeout stuff and a tidy xFIP-. Team-wise, both clubs are middling — Toronto gets a bump from strong fielding, Seattle from underperforming its luck — but this one's about the pitching matchup and the kid's second big-league start, not lineup firepower.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays

Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

This one's a placeholder-pitcher matchup wedged into a getaway-day doubleheader, and the numbers agree it's mostly forgettable. Game 1 of a split doubleheader at Oracle Park exists only because of a June rainout, and with the Giants' second starter still unnamed, the pitching matchup is half a mystery. Arizona's Merrill Kelly, at 37 the elder statesman of this game, brings a modest 1.66 pNERD — his xFIP- of 121 says he's been more back-of-rotation innings-eater than difference-maker lately, though a bit of bad luck (his ERA is running higher than his peripherals suggest) hints he could look better than his season line indicates. On the team side, Arizona's 5.49 tNERD is buoyed by strong fielding and baserunning marks, while San Francisco's 4.34 mark leans almost entirely on plus broadcast ratings and positive luck rather than genuine on-field pop, with subpar baserunning and fielding dragging it down. The Giants have gone just 1-8 against Arizona this season, a historically lopsided mark in a rivalry that dates back to 1998. With a gNERD of 8.25, sitting below both the historical and today's averages, this is a series-storyline game more than a stats showcase — treat it as background noise unless the Giants finally name their starter.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

A low-key get-together between two AL Central also-rans, elevated mostly by the surprising fact that the White Sox are actually good this year. Chicago sits atop the division at 71-63 while Minnesota limps along in third at 64-71, a plot twist nobody saw coming a few years into the rebuild, and the White Sox have already taken the season series from the Twins. That contrast shows up clearly in the team NERD gap: Chicago's 8.68 reflects a young, cheap, productive lineup with strong batting runs and a 0.085 barrel rate, while Minnesota's 2.91 gets dragged down by shaky fielding, baserunning, and a bullpen that hasn't held up. Neither starter offers much intrigue on the mound — Erick Fedde (6-8) and Bailey Ober (7-4) both carry pNERD scores barely above replacement level, with xFIP- readings in the 115-119 range and modest strikeout stuff, Ober's velocity dip to 88 mph among the more notable red flags. With a gNERD of 7.53, this one sits well below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate (10.35) — watch it for the standings race, not the pitching matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 7:05p

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves, 1:10p

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Colorado Rockies

Atlanta Braves

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

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  MLB: What to watch on August 28, 2026