MLB: What to watch on August 28, 2026

• 28 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal returns to Comerica Park for the first time since Detroit shipped him to LA at the deadline, and that alone makes this the day's marquee watch. This is genuinely the day's best game on paper too, with a 15.59 gNERD comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, driven almost entirely by Skubal's 12.30 pNERD — elite strikeout stuff (30% K rate) paired with a minuscule xFIP- of 63. The emotional subplot writes itself: Skubal was dealt from Detroit to Los Angeles after spending his entire career with the Tigers, and now returns to face his former teammates for the first time as a visitor in what should be an emotional night. He's been sharp in LA, too — posting a 3.38 ERA with the Dodgers and striking out 11 over seven innings in his last outing. Detroit counters with journeyman Drew Anderson, a respectable 7.41 pNERD but a converted reliever who is 4-5 with a 4.09 ERA across 44 appearances, moving into the rotation only after the deadline trades of Skubal and Casey Mize. The Dodgers' 8.19 tNERD dwarfs Detroit's 3.27, and with the Dodgers freshly swept by Atlanta and the Tigers having lost 11 of their last 14, both sides have something to play for tonight beyond the reunion narrative.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers

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Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

A hard-throwing 23-year-old ace against a rookie who can't find the plate — this one's got a legitimate watchability edge. Eury Pérez brings a 98-plus mph fastball and elite whiff stuff, and he's been dealing lately: Perez is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his past three starts, with 16 strikeouts and 10 walks over 18 innings. He already torched this same Nationals lineup days ago, having allowed two runs (one earned) on three hits over five innings in a 4-2 victory. His 7.91 pNERD is well above average thanks to velocity, youth, and swing-and-miss ability, though his walk tendencies and a below-average pace knock a bit off the shine. On the other side, rookie Jackson Kent is making just his fourth big-league start, and the results have been rough — Jackson Kent has walked 11 batters in just 12.1 innings, and no stats were reliable enough to generate a pNERD score, so treat him as an unknown wildcard rather than a proven arm. Both offenses actually have some juice — Washington's lineup grades out well on barrels and baserunning despite an ugly bullpen, and Miami's is young, cheap, and running hot — pushing both team NERDs near 9. Combined, the 15.55 gNERD sits comfortably above today's average and near the historic 95th percentile, making this one worth catching, mismatched arms and all.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Jackson Kent, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:15p

Summary

A Yankee ace with legitimate Cy Young buzz against a fading Red Sox comeback story makes this one worth clearing your evening for. Cam Schlittler has quietly turned into the story of the Yankees' season — a Walpole, Massachusetts native who's this close to a Cy Young case, and his 10.59 pNERD (among the highest scores tracked today, well above the 95th percentile) backs it up: dazzling xFIP-, plate discipline stats, and mid-upper-90s velocity from a 25-year-old who's allowed but one run over six innings against the Blue Jays last time out. Bad news for run support — the Yankees have lost four of his last five starts — but that's irrelevant to how fun he is to watch. Patrick Sandoval, by contrast, is scuffling back from 2024 elbow surgery and his pNERD sits at a middling 2.75, dragged down by a slow pace and shaky command, though he did rebound with two runs over five against the Giants. The larger plot: Boston was 14 games under .500 in June and has since ripped off a 41-14 stretch to get back into wild-card contention, adding real juice to this AL East rivalry game. Both tNERDs sit above average, with the Yankees' bullpen, barrel rate and baserunning all strong. A 14.16 gNERD lands comfortably above both the historical median and today's average — tune in for Schlittler if nothing else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Milwaukee's Logan Henderson has been one of the best stories in the NL since the break, and this Brewers offense/bullpen combo makes for one of the more watchable games on the board today. Henderson, a 24-year-old rookie, has been one of the National League's top pitchers since the All-Star Break, going 5-1 with a 2.20 ERA over his last seven starts, and his 8.85 pNERD (well above today's 5.73 average) backs that up with strong strikeout stuff and a stingy xFIP. He'll be squaring off against the Rangers for the first time in his career. On the other side, Cody Bradford is still working his way back — making his fifth start since returning from an elbow injury and surgery that had kept him out since spring training last year — and his diminished velocity shows up in a modest 3.20 pNERD. Milwaukee's 10.19 tNERD (nearly matching today's ceiling) is fueled by strong batting, baserunning, and bullpen numbers, while Texas checks in more modestly at 5.33, though the Rangers carry a hefty positive luck score suggesting they've underperformed their true talent lately. Add it up and you get a 13.78 gNERD, comfortably above today's average — worth tuning in for Henderson alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Texas Rangers

Milwaukee Brewers

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

Watch this one for the return of a live arm the Pirates have been carefully rebuilding all year, even if the two clubs around him are a mixed bag. Jared Jones, who missed all of 2025 after UCL surgery and spent this season on a deliberately staged comeback through the minors, has come back throwing serious gas — the Pirates targeted his return around the one-year anniversary of his UCL repair, a notably aggressive timeline — and it shows: his 98.4 mph average velocity and strong swinging-strike rate power a 9.61 pNERD, comfortably above today's average. His xFIP- sits under 92, and some bad recent luck (a positive luck component) suggests his results should actually look better going forward, not worse. Across the mound, Quinn Mathews comes in as a stats-free question mark (0.00 pNERD) — no meaningful track record to lean on, so treat his outing as a genuine unknown. Team-wise, Pittsburgh's baserunning and bullpen give it a slight edge (6.60 tNERD) over St. Louis (5.98), whose young, cheap roster and strong glove work offset a punchless offense that's been unlucky at the plate. Add it up and you get a 13.59 gNERD, solidly above the historical and today's averages — worth tuning in mainly to watch Jones air it out.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

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San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Padres and Rays close out August with a game that's carrying above-average intrigue thanks to two legitimately live arms, even if neither team's roster story is exactly a page-turner. Casey Mize, a Padres deadline pickup, gets the ball still nursing an ankle sprain that forced him out early in his last start after allowing three runs on four hits, including three home runs, against Minnesota. He's says he feels good and had the ankle taped up to help stabilize things, but his Padres tenure has been rocky so far. Across the mound, Shane McClanahan continues a strong comeback season, coming off five scoreless innings against Baltimore, and his pNERD of 6.44 reflects real stuff — mid-90s velocity, a quick pace, and strong strikeout indicators. The Padres' 9.70 tNERD is the headline number here, built on an elite bullpen and strong fielding, while Tampa Bay's offense-over-defense profile (good bats, shaky barrel suppression) drags their tNERD down to a modest 4.57, partly buoyed by lingering bad luck that suggests some positive regression could be coming. At a 12.70 gNERD, this sits comfortably above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate — worth a look, especially for McClanahan's start.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Tampa Bay Rays

Casey Mize, San Diego Padres

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Cubs baseball is worth watching lately mostly because of their lineup and defense, not this pitching matchup—so tune in expecting runs and web gems rather than a duel. Chicago's offense and glovework carry a tNERD near the top of today's slate, fueled by strong batting runs and elite fielding, while Cincinnati's tNERD sits closer to average, dragged down by shaky bullpen work and light contact quality. On the mound, Rhett Lowder has had a rough season overall, but he's working on a full month with a 3.86 ERA, though his 4.83 FIP suggests regression is coming. He's also had a mixed history against Chicago, having held the Cubs scoreless in relief before the All-Star break, but also getting chased after just 3.0 innings earlier this season, walking four. David Peterson brings a better peripheral profile and a bit of positive regression looming given his underperforming luck figure. This is a Cubs team trying to shake off a mini-slump — Chicago has dropped two of its last three — against a Reds club that's fallen out of contention, nine games out of a Wild Card spot after a promising 20-11 start. Overall, a solidly average watch: good offense, forgettable pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

White Sox atop the AL Central sounds like a typo, but it isn't, and that alone makes this series worth a glance even before you get to the actual baseball. Chicago rolls into Target Field as the unlikely but thoroughly earned leader of the American League Central, 2.5 games clear of Cleveland and 6.5 ahead of Minnesota, riding an offense that's been wonderfully belligerent, scoring 36 runs with 11 homers across its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, has lost seven of its last eight games on the road, though the Twins do have a bright spot: top prospect Walker Jenkins makes his major-league debut Friday after hitting well at Triple-A. On the mound, Luis Castillo and Dean Kremer are both mid-pack arms with unspectacular ERAs but decent underlying skills, and both have been unlucky enough that positive regression looks likely for each. The gNERD here (11.02) sits almost exactly at the historical median and slightly below today's average, so treat this as a passable, not essential, watch — elevated mainly by Chicago's surprising tNERD score and the intrigue of watching a hyped rookie's first big-league at-bats.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins

Luis Castillo, Chicago White Sox

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

I have enough info now to write the summary.

A middling matchup on paper, but the storylines behind it—wild card jockeying, a Phillies rookie trying to find consistency, and a hard-luck Angels lefty who deserves better—make this worth a glance. Philadelphia arrives holding the NL's second wild-card spot with only a two-game cushion, still chasing Atlanta in the East, while the Angels are buried at 52-82 and playing out the string. The Phillies salvaged the finale in Seattle after dropping the first two games, halting a brief skid that followed a nine-game winning streak, though they've still won eight of 10. Painter (pNERD 6.88) brings elite velocity and rookie youth to the mound, though his 6.04 ERA still lags his peripherals—his sizable positive luck score suggests better days are ahead. Detmers (pNERD 7.61) is the more interesting arm here: he's posted a sparkling 1.56 ERA and struck out 49 batters in 40 1/3 innings since the All-Star break despite an ugly overall record from poor support. Team-wise, Philadelphia's solid bullpen and baserunning give it a respectable tNERD (5.51), while the Angels' shaky defense and baserunning drag them to 1.55. The 10.77 gNERD lands almost exactly at today's average—not a marquee game, but a decent one thanks to the pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Angels

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

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Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:15p

Summary

Cal Raleigh's power surge and a Cy Young-caliber arm on the mound give this game a pulse, even if the two teams are otherwise scuffling toward the exits of the playoff race. Dylan Cease anchors the watchability here, and rightly so — his xFIP- of 66 and elite swinging-strike rate produce a 9.60 pNERD, comfortably above today's average, and he's been sharp lately, sporting a 2.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while allowing just 11 hits and 6 runs in his last 25 innings. Emerson Hancock isn't a slouch either, riding above-average velocity and a tidy xFIP- to a respectable 6.23 pNERD, giving this an above-average pitching matchup at 7.92 combined. The offenses, though, are where the appeal collapses: both Seattle and Toronto have the worst offences in the majors, with Toronto averaging just 3.92 runs per game and Seattle 3.93, dragging tNERD scores to a combined 2.58 — well below the historical mean. Both clubs are fringe wild-card hopefuls playing out the string, and Cal Raleigh remains a major source of power, having blasted three homers in one game and four in four straight at-bats recently, so if he connects, it'll matter. Overall gNERD of 10.49 lands almost exactly at the historic median — a pitching-forward, offense-starved affair worth a look mainly for the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

A last-place Giants club playing out the string hosts a Diamondbacks team trying to shake off a laugher, with a rookie lefty who's been living dangerously on the mound — watchable in spurts, but nothing to clear your night for. San Francisco (55-79) is well out of the race while Arizona (71-64) is fighting for playoff positioning, and the D-backs are looking to bounce back after falling to 71-64 after a 6-1 loss at the hands of the Giants on Thursday. Kohl Drake gets the start for Arizona with a pNERD of exactly zero — no data to lean on — and the underlying numbers explain why: his 5.40 ERA dramatically understates the danger, having allowed 20 hits, six walks, and three homers across 16.2 innings, with an 8.75 xERA. Blade Tidwell, by contrast, carries a solid 5.15 pNERD after tossing 5 2/3 innings without allowing a run on three hits against Boston last time out. Both tNERDs are middling, with the Giants propped up mostly by broadcast ratings and positive batted-luck. At 9.93, this gNERD sits below both the historical and today's averages — a fine background game, not a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

Kohl Drake, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

Kansas City's on a hot streak but Cleveland's on a hotter one, and this game pits a wild-card race backdrop against fairly modest NERD numbers—watch it for the stakes, not the style points. The Guardians arrive having strung together seven straight wins overall, including two last-at-bat comebacks, and now hold a two-game lead over the Rangers for the AL's third wild-card spot while pulling within 2½ games of the first-place White Sox. Kansas City isn't exactly limping in either, having swept the Tigers in three games and swept the Athletics in four games before taking two of three from Toronto.

On the mound, Wacha's the more interesting arm of the two — he's 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA against Cleveland in 10 career starts, and has been particularly nasty against this specific opponent this year, having allowed only three runs in 14 innings across two starts against Cleveland this season. Bibee's been steadier than flashy, with his strikeout rate falling to 19.3% lately. Neither pitcher grades out as a scores-plunger by the numbers, and the Royals' bullpen (a significant drag on their tNERD) is the shakiest link here. Cleveland's tNERD (7.32) comfortably outpaces Kansas City's (3.69), and the modest 9.22 gNERD lands below the day's 11.26 average — solid divisional theater, but not appointment viewing on script alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Houston Astros @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

A modest matchup that reads better on paper for the pitchers than the standings suggest — Houston's playing meaningful baseball, the Mets mostly aren't, but the arms make it watchable enough. The Astros (67-67) sit atop a scrappy AL West by a single game after taking two of three from the Yankees, while the Mets (60-74) are buried in the NL East and enter having dropped three straight at home. Hunter Brown, whose season has been capped at 14 starts by shoulder trouble, has looked sharp lately (9 K, 3 runs over his last 10.2 innings) even though Houston has lost each of those starts — and he's been rough against the Mets historically (6.17 ERA in two career tries). Christian Scott, who's never faced Houston, has quietly posted a strong 91 xFIP- and carries the better pNERD (6.33 to Brown's 3.64) despite a shaky last outing. At a gNERD of 8.98, this sits below both the historical average and today's slate, mostly dragged down by two so-so offenses — but Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and two live arms should keep it from getting boring.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Houston Astros

New York Mets

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Christian Scott, New York Mets

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Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Two lousy AL clubs padding stat lines against each other, but a few threads make it mildly watchable if you're bored and it's on. The Orioles (65-69) are the clearly better team here, even if "better" is relative, and they arrive having won four of their last six games, including a 13–1 blowout of the Cardinals this week. The Athletics, meanwhile, are your basic last-place fodder — 53-81, allowing a brutal 5.75 runs per game, 29th-worst in baseball, and their tNERD of 1.77 reflects an ugly mix of bad fielding, bad baserunning, and bad batting that only gets propped up by cheap payroll and some bad luck that theoretically should turn.

On the mound, Brandon Young is a modestly interesting sixth-starter type — in 22 starts he's gone 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 123.1 innings — and his pNERD of 3.57 is the only pitching number worth mentioning. Jacob Lopez, by contrast, is scuffling: his xFIP- of 122 and 90.4 mph average velocity produce a pNERD of just 0.68, barely above replacement-level entertainment. With a gNERD of 6.11 sitting well below the historical average of 10.81 and near the bottom of today's slate (range 5.09–15.59), this one's mostly for die-hards of either fanbase, or people who enjoy watching bad teams try to figure things out under the lights at Sutter Health Park.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Athletics

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

This one's for the Braves-completionist crowd, not the neutral fan looking for a coin-flip thriller. Atlanta rolls into this one riding a four-game winning streak and fresh off a Chris Sale complete-game shutout that swept the Dodgers, while Colorado limps in having dropped eight of ten and sporting a miserable 25-44 road record. The pitching matchup does most of the talking here: Grant Holmes has quietly settled into a solid campaign and posts the lone standout pNERD (3.25) on the slate, built on a healthy swinging-strike rate, while Tomoyuki Sugano (pNERD 0.40) has been a mess lately, giving up 5 earned runs in 3.0 innings against Cleveland on August 23 and 6 earned runs in 5.0 innings against Los Angeles on August 17. Colorado's offense (tNERD 0.95) is near the bottom of today's pool, dragged down by poor batting runs and a low barrel rate, while Atlanta's 5.58 tNERD reflects a strong bullpen and above-average power. With a gNERD of just 5.09 — well below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.26) — this is one to skip unless you're just here to watch Atlanta pad its NL East lead.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Colorado Rockies

Atlanta Braves

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

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