MLB: What to watch on September 4, 2026

• 04 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Two aces, a division race, and a genuine ace-vs-ace duel make this the best watch on the board today. Chris Sale and Cristopher Sánchez sit at Nos. 3 and 2, respectively, in MLB.com's most recent NL Cy Young poll, and this is round two of their season series—their first meeting ended with Sánchez allowing three runs, all unearned, over six innings, while Sale countered with seven innings of one-run ball. The stakes are real too: the Braves and Phillies are entering a critical stretch with seven meetings in 10 games, and Atlanta currently holds a four-game lead in the NL East. Sale has been quietly dominant, having allowed more than three earned runs just once all season, with the Angels tagging him for six in four innings back in April, while Sánchez has been nails at home, going 11-1 with a 1.68 ERA in home starts this season. The gNERD of 15.75 sits in the upper tier both historically (95th percentile is 15.6) and among today's slate (season-high 15.75), driven almost entirely by two elite arms with xFIP- in the 60s and swinging-strike rates well above average. Neither team's offense is thrilling on paper, but with this pitching and this postseason context, that hardly matters.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Blake Snell, fresh off elbow surgery and looking every bit like his Cy Young self, makes this Dodgers-Nationals mismatch worth tuning in for despite the lopsided record. The gNERD of 15.72 sits well above both the historic average (10.81) and today's average (10.72), driven almost entirely by Snell's dominant return.

Since coming back from injury on August 11, Snell has made four starts, allowing a total of three runs over 23 innings for a 1.17 ERA, and he is yet to allow a home run this season. His 9.62 pNERD reflects elite swing-and-miss stuff backed by a sparkling xFIP-, comfortably in this dataset's upper percentiles. Across the mound, Jackson Kent has no track record to speak of statistically (pNERD of 0.00), but there's novelty here: Kent, who's coming off his 1st MLB win against Miami, will pitch on 6 days' rest, still just five career starts into his big-league career. The lopsided pitching matchup lines up with a lopsided season — Washington's playoff hopes are fading quickly, as the Nationals now sit 7.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Both offenses grade out well by tNERD (8.52 and 8.29), with Washington's baserunning and the Dodgers' slugging doing the heavy lifting, but a hobbled bullpen for Washington (among the league's worst by Bullpen Runs) suggests if this one gets late and close, Nationals fans might want to look away.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Washington Nationals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Jackson Kent, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

A wild-card race game featuring a lefty who can't stop giving up home runs against a bottom-of-the-rotation righty — but the surrounding rosters make this one worth a look. The Cubs enter clinging to the top wild-card spot, trailing Philadelphia by half a game, and they trail the Philadelphia Phillies by a half game for the top wild card spot in the National League — every game counts down the stretch. Imanaga carries the better pNERD (6.16 vs. 2.37) thanks to strong strikeout stuff and a favorable xFIP-, but he's stuck in an ugly home-run rut, having allowed 11 dingers in just 29.1 IP since July 31 — the most in baseball — with 33 total homers on the season. Junk is a fine story as a well-traveled journeyman finally holding a rotation spot, but his stuff (weak swinging-strike rate, so-so command) doesn't inspire much confidence, and he's compiled a 6-4 record and 4.17 ERA with 77 strikeouts over 110 innings this season for Miami. Where this game earns its solid 14.04 gNERD — comfortably above today's 10.72 average — is the team quality: Chicago's elite fielding and offense pair with Miami's youthful, underperforming (and thus due for better luck) roster to make both sides genuinely watchable, even if the pitching matchup itself is lopsided.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Miami Marlins

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Both teams fighting for playoff position, and both starters carry storylines worth noting: Max Fried is making just his second start back from the injured list, while Walker Buehler brings a 2.67 ERA over his past 5 outings into the opener vs. the Yankees. That's a nice bounce-back for Buehler after a rough season, and it's paired with a Padres team fighting for their playoff lives — San Diego is currently a half-game out of the final wild-card spot and must secure every win they can over their next 22 games.

On paper, this is one of the more watchable matchups on the board, with a gNERD of 13.48 sitting comfortably above both the historic average (10.81) and today's average (10.72). The Padres' 9.52 tNERD is the headliner here, boosted by a strong bullpen (z-score 1.88) and one of the best fan-experience ratings in the sport, while the Yankees counter with a smaller-but-solid 8.39 built on an excellent barrel rate and quality baserunning. The pitching matchup is more modest — both Fried (4.36 pNERD) and Buehler (4.70) sit right around league-average NERD territory, with Fried's stinginess against contact (his xFIP- of 87 is well below average) offset by a slow labored pace, and Buehler still working through below-average whiff rates even amid his recent hot streak. Not a marquee pitching duel, but a playoff-stakes atmosphere with two well-rounded lineups makes this one worth your evening.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

New York Yankees

San Diego Padres

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:10p

Summary

The Brewers are chasing a playoff clincher and could punch their ticket against a Reds team playing out the string, which gives this one a bit of stakes-plus-mismatch energy worth tuning into. Milwaukee's tNERD (9.72) dwarfs Cincinnati's (4.71), driven by a Brewers lineup that rates well above average in batting runs, baserunning, and bullpen strength, a roster loaded with a deep, young core, while the Reds lean almost entirely on hard-hit-ball rates to stay respectable. On the mound, rookie lefty Shane Drohan (6.34 pNERD) has quietly turned into a rotation fixture; he's 3.75 ERA, 3.42 FIP over 27 appearances, and has historically owned Cincinnati, throwing 10 innings with two runs allowed and 12 strikeouts in his prior starts against them. Rhett Lowder (4.01 pNERD) has been steadier of late but still owns a rough xFIP- and an ugly personal history versus Milwaukee, going 0-3 with a 6.28 ERA over three career starts against the Brewers. The 12.39 gNERD lands comfortably above today's average, making this a solid, if not electric, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Middling stakes, tidy peripherals: this Camden Yards tilt won't headline your night, but there's enough craft here to reward a peek. Ranger Suarez comes in trying to shake off a clunker—last Sunday he was torched by the Yankees allowing six runs on nine hits over 5.1 innings—which is a rough follow-up to a season that's otherwise featured a sharp 88 xFIP-, the best NERD driver on either side tonight. Shane Baz, opposing him, has quietly stabilized: over his last three starts, Baz has pitched 17.2 innings and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of them, even if the Orioles' offense keeps leaving him out to dry with paltry run support. He's also got a bit of familiarity working for him, having limited Boston to modest damage in two prior looks this year. Both bullpens carry real value—Boston's ranks well above average, Baltimore's not far behind—giving this game some late-inning intrigue if the starters falter early. It's a firmly average watchability day: gNERD sits right at the historical median and roughly in line with today's slate, so treat this as a solid backup option rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Both the Giants and Mets are playing out the string of lost seasons, but Nolan McLean is the reason to tune in. McLean has quietly turned himself into a genuine NL Rookie of the Year contender, and his pNERD of 7.66 (well above today's average of 5.14) backs that up. He's coming off a run where he yielded only three runs (two earned) over his past four starts, including seven shutout innings last time out against the Astros. His 95.5-mph average fastball, sub-25 age, and quick pace all boost his profile, and an xFIP- of 87 suggests the shiny ERA isn't smoke and mirrors. Across the mound, Matt Wilkinson is coming off the first quality start of his MLB career, but with no pNERD data available, he's a wildcard. The Mets' bullpen (tNERD-boosting at +0.67 z-score) gives New York a real caught-mid-collapse. Neither team's offense is doing much - both are below-average on batting runs and baserunning - but the Giants have some positive batted-luck to unwind. With a gNERD of 10.93, this sits almost exactly at the historical median, elevated mostly by McLean's arm rather than anything the lineups are doing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

New York Mets

Matt Wilkinson, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:15p

Summary

A last-gasp Tigers team sends a rookie making his first career start into a pennant race, and that alone makes this worth a look. Detroit, clinging to their wild-card hopes despite having lost 11 of their last 14 games, hands the ball to 24-year-old lefty Andrew Sears, who's been optioned into the rotation after only relief work since his August 23 debut — a jump in role that comes with real intrigue given his 2.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 67-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 58.1 innings in the minors this year. He draws a tough assignment in Foster Griffin, whose winding path (Tommy John surgery, a stint pitching in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants, brief Nationals run) has led to a genuinely strong Cleveland season and a favorable xFIP-driven pNERD of 5.61, buoyed by his strong strike-throwing. The Guardians' tNERD (6.94) outpaces Detroit's (3.16) thanks to Cleveland's youth, low payroll, and solid bullpen and baserunning marks, even with modest raw power. Overall gNERD of 10.35 sits almost exactly at today's average — not a marquee game, but Sears' debut and playoff stakes give it a story worth following.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

Andrew Sears, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Zebby Matthews carrying a scorching hot hand into Rate Field is the real hook here, even if the rest of the marquee is middling. The Twins righty is fresh off the best start of his career—this will be his fifth career start against the White Sox after he retired the first 17 batters he faced and gave up one run on five hits and no walks in 8⅓ innings against this very Chicago lineup last Sunday, part of a stretch where he's won all five of his August starts with a 2.90 ERA. That form shows up in his 6.64 pNERD, well above today's average, built on plus velocity and some positive regression coming his way per his luck component. Fedde, by contrast, sits near the bottom of today's pitcher pool at 1.61, his xFIP- and whiff rate both ugly, though he's riding a small hot streak of his own, having topped the Twins 3-2 in Minneapolis last Saturday, allowing two runs on three hits in five innings. The White Sox's tNERD (8.18) is well above league average—young, cheap, and hitting the ball hard—while Minnesota's roster drags the gNERD (9.76) down to modestly below-average territory. Worth a look for Matthews alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:45p

Summary

Jared Jones bringing real swing-and-miss stuff to a game that's otherwise light on juice. The Pirates' young righty pairs upper-90s velocity with a strong 91 xFIP-, giving him a 9.90 pNERD that's comfortably above today's average and puts him firmly toward the top of the pack for the day. Across the mound, Angels rookie Ryan Johnson is only 23, but his peripherals are rough — an xFIP- of 133 drags his pNERD down to 1.56 despite some recent shiny surface numbers, including allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five outings. The teams themselves tell a lopsided story: Pittsburgh has been riding a 6-4 stretch over their last 10 games, while Los Angeles arrives in Pittsburgh on a 1-9 skid through their last 10 games, and it shows in the tNERD gap (6.77 to 1.20), with the Pirates getting real value from baserunning and bullpen work. Overall gNERD of 9.71 sits just below both the historic and today's averages — watchable mainly for Jones, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 11:10a

Summary

Every September game feels urgent when you're clinging to a wild-card spot, and this doubleheader opener has both Detroit and Cleveland playing that exact brand of desperate baseball. The Tigers arrive 5.5 games back and reeling from a 3-7 stretch, while the Guardians, clinging to a razor-thin wild-card edge over Texas and Toronto, have won 6 of their last 10 and have gone 7-2 against the Tigers recently, setting up a lopsided season series that adds some spite to the stakes. On the mound, Keider Montero has quietly been effective, tossing 139 innings with a mid-3s ERA, and his 3.52 pNERD (built on strong strike-throwing and youth) makes him the more interesting arm here, even if his low swinging-strike rate keeps this from being a swing-and-miss showcase. Logan Allen counters with almost no track record against this Tigers lineup and an unranked pNERD, so treat his outing as a mystery box. Cleveland's tNERD (6.94) outpaces Detroit's (3.16) thanks to a young, cheap roster and strong baserunning, but overall this 9.31 gNERD sits below both the historical and today's averages — a divisional scrap worth a glance for the standings drama, not the artistry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Nick Martinez has quietly had an All-Star-caliber season for Tampa Bay, and the return leg of this series-opener is worth a peek even if it's not a marquee matchup. Martinez enters at 13-4 with a 2.99 ERA, 13-4 with a 2.99 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 153 2/3 innings pitched, and he's coming off a solid outing where he threw six innings, giving up three earned runs while surrendering seven hits against San Diego. His command-over-stuff profile shows up in the components: a strong strike rate but middling whiff numbers keep his pNERD modest. Across the mound, Texas countered its rotation crunch — with Eovaldi and Leiter out — by signing veteran righty Trevor Williams to a major league contract, and he'll make his first start of the season after pitching out of the bullpen nine times, so there's zero pNERD data on him — a genuine mystery box. The Rangers actually carry the better team NERD, buoyed by a hefty positive luck score suggesting better days ahead, while Tampa Bay's excellent barrel-suppression gets offset by a weak barrel rate against. Overall this lands below the midpoint for today's slate — watchable mostly for Martinez and Williams' surprise spot start.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Trevor Williams, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

I'll proceed with the information gathered so far, as further searches aren't available this turn.

A rookie getting shelled versus one of the AL's steadiest strikeout arms—this is really a showcase for Logan Gilbert more than a competitive pitching matchup. Kade Morris, the Athletics' 12th-ranked prospect, has had a brutal welcome to the majors: he suffered a loss in his MLB debut against Houston, tossing four innings and giving up nine runs on nine hits and three walks, including three home runs. His pNERD sits at zero simply because there isn't enough of a track record to grade him yet, but the underlying numbers so far are ugly. Gilbert, by contrast, brings a 6.92 pNERD—comfortably above average—built on plus strikeout stuff, a 96-mph fastball, and quality control, though he does work at a plodding pace that dings his score slightly. Both teams are middling on the tNERD front, dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning, though each is running notably better than their peripherals suggest (positive luck for both), so some regression toward more losses is plausible. With a gNERD of 8.59—below today's average of 10.72 and squarely below the historical midpoint—this game's appeal rests almost entirely on watching Gilbert work against a lineup that isn't likely to make him work very hard.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Kade Morris, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, 5:10p

Summary

Toronto's playing spoiler-adjacent baseball while trying to stay in the AL Wild Card race, and this one has a decent little subplot even if the overall NERD numbers are modest. Jameson Taillon is back from a 15-day IL stint for forearm tendinitis, making his first start since Aug. 10, and he's oddly dominant against this exact opponent — he's 2-6 with a 5.68 ERA, but he's 1-1 with an 0.86 ERA in five career appearances against Kansas City, having allowed just three earned runs in over 31 innings against them since 2023. His modest 3.73 pNERD undersells that specific matchup history, even if his overall command (poor strike rate, below-average velocity) keeps the shine off. Daniel Lynch IV, working on a nice 3.06 ERA season, actually posts the higher pNERD (4.57) thanks to a quick pace and solid whiff rate, even though his last outing was only 3 1/3 innings while giving up two earned runs against Cleveland. Team-wise, neither club brings much thump — Toronto's bottom-third barrel rate and Kansas City's bullpen (a genuinely bad unit, dragging down their tNERD) both work against the entertainment value. With a gNERD of 7.78, this sits below both the historical and today's-slate averages — watchable mostly for the Taillon subplot, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals

Jameson Taillon, Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Not much reason to circle this one on your calendar—two also-ran clubs playing out the string at altitude. The Rockies are limping to a 54-86 finish with a battered rotation, and this matchup pairs a solid-but-unspectacular Cardinals arm against a Rockies starter who was scratched from his last outing due to illness before returning to face St. Louis.

The gNERD of 7.37 sits well below both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate average (10.72), and the Rockies' 1.44 tNERD is near rock-bottom—their offense (-57.3 batting runs) and defense (-20.7 fielding runs) are both cratering. St. Louis brings more juice at 6.20 tNERD, propped up by a young, cheap roster and strong glove work, even if the lineup's own bat production is underwhelming. On the mound, Andre Pallante's 4.46 pNERD is roughly average, buoyed by a tidy 94 xFIP- and mid-90s velocity, though his lack of whiffs keeps him from being special. Ryan Feltner's 2.65 pNERD reflects real struggles—a 117 xFIP- is the ugliest number on the mound today—and he's shown positive luck, meaning his 5.84 ERA still somehow flatters him. Skippable unless you just love Coors Field chaos.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Colorado Rockies

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

The Astros and Diamondbacks are both scrapping for playoff positioning, but if you're looking for pitching artistry, look elsewhere. Arizona enters holding a half-game edge over San Diego for the last NL Wild Card spot, and Houston, despite sitting just three games over .500, is chasing a first-round bye after winning six of its last eight. The Astros have also won three straight in this season series, so there's a bit of a revenge angle for the D-backs, and Ketel Marte is expected back after a day-to-day absence.

That said, the gNERD score of 6.11 sits well below the historic average of 10.81 and near the bottom of today's slate, which tops out at 15.75. Arizona's tNERD (5.38) is respectable, Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros but Houston's offense-and-baserunning mix drags their tNERD down to 2.78. Neither starter helps matters: Merrill Kelly (1.75 pNERD) is 37 with diminished velocity, and Cristian Javier (2.29 pNERD) has ugly xFIP- numbers offset only by a plodding pace and better strikeout stuff. Javier's inflated luck figure suggests his results have been worse than his skills, so there's a sliver of "if he pitches like his peripherals" upside, but this is a game for standings-watchers, not connoisseurs.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Houston Astros

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

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