Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 5, 2026

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

Detail

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

Cade Cavalli's return alone gives this game a story worth watching: a former top prospect back from Tommy John and finally healthy is squaring off against Tyler Glasnow, whose own career has been a rolling injury saga. Both teams post strong tNERD marks — Washington's 8.45 fueled by excellent baserunning and a young, cheap roster, LA's 8.19 driven by big-time batting production — and the pitching side is even better, with Glasnow's 9.18 pNERD the headline thanks to a sparkling xFIP- of 66. Cavalli isn't far behind at 7.82, riding a mid-90s heater and a stretch where he's allowed only five earned runs in his last six starts. This is Glasnow's first home start since returning from the injured list, adding some intrigue to how his surgically-rebuilt arm holds up. The Dodgers, despite losing six of their last nine games, still hold a comfortable lead atop the NL West, while the Nationals have lost five straight on the road and are fading from wild-card contention — so don't expect playoff desperation, just quality arms. At 16.82, the gNERD score sits well above both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate (10.87), making this one of the more watchable matchups on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Washington Nationals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 36.6 8.9% 10.9 -10.4 -27.4 $114.5M 27.1 -29.0 2.00 2.20
Z-score 1.07 1.30 2.00 -0.50 -2.13 -1.01 -1.71 -1.48 -0.75 -0.40
tNERD 1.07 1.30 2.00 -0.50 -2.13 1.01 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.45

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 59.0 8.5% -3.0 12.9 47.8 $413.5M 30.0 12.0 2.45 2.51
Z-score 1.70 0.87 -0.62 0.60 0.82 2.41 0.90 0.62 0.12 0.26
tNERD 1.70 0.87 -0.62 0.60 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.06 0.13 4.00 8.19

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 76 11.4% 65.4% 96.6 mph 27 21.8s -2 0.0%
Z-score -1.53 0.44 0.69 1.09 -0.42 2.23
pNERD 3.06 0.22 0.34 1.09 0.42 -1.12 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.82

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 66 12.1% 63.2% 95.6 mph 32 18.7s 1 0.0%
Z-score -2.13 0.77 -0.21 0.64 0.91 -0.31
pNERD 4.26 0.38 -0.11 0.64 0.00 0.16 0.05 0.00 3.80 9.18

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers, 4:05p

Summary

Rasmussen and deGrom bring the ace stuff, and this one has October implications baked in — that's a rare combo worth clearing your evening for.

Tampa Bay rolls in at 84-57, holding a four-game AL East cushion, while Texas sits below .500 but still fighting for playoff position, so this series carries real weight beyond the pitching matchup. The Rangers hope the "vintage" Jacob deGrom returns for his next start, five days after the 38-year-old pitched one of the best games of his career. That gem saw him face the minimum through seven innings against Oakland, the first Rangers pitcher to do that since 2023. The stats back up the eye test — deGrom's pNERD of 10.82 is elite, built on nasty swinging-strike rates and mid-90s-plus heat, and it's boosted by some bad luck (a 4.00 ERA that his xFIP suggests he doesn't deserve). Rasmussen isn't far behind at 8.29, and Tampa's righty enters 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA, having gone 5-0 in six August starts. Team-wise, both sides are just okay, but with two frontline arms dueling, this gNERD of 14.66 ranks near the top of today's slate — prioritize the first few innings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 27.1 5.7% 1.7 0.7 18.3 $106.9M 29.1 17.0 2.27 2.10
Z-score 0.81 -2.11 0.27 0.02 -0.34 -1.10 0.07 0.87 -0.23 -0.61
tNERD 0.81 -2.11 0.27 0.02 -0.34 1.10 0.00 0.87 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.62

Texas Rangers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 20.4 7.5% -2.5 -2.2 21.8 $201.9M 30.3 41.0 2.01 2.08
Z-score 0.62 -0.19 -0.52 -0.11 -0.20 -0.01 1.17 2.10 -0.74 -0.65
tNERD 0.62 -0.19 -0.52 -0.11 -0.20 0.01 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.60

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 78 11.4% 66.9% 95.7 mph 30 18.8s -8 0.0%
Z-score -1.41 0.44 1.30 0.68 0.38 -0.23
pNERD 2.82 0.22 0.65 0.68 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.29

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 76 16.1% 64.9% 97.3 mph 38 19.1s 22 0.0%
Z-score -1.53 2.65 0.48 1.40 2.52 0.02
pNERD 3.06 1.32 0.24 1.40 0.00 -0.01 1.00 0.00 3.80 10.82

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Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

Here's the summary:

A wild-card race game with a Triple-A callup on the mound and a hot-hitting third baseman worth tuning in for, even if the pitching matchup itself is middling. Javier Assad gets recalled from Iowa to start after Chicago's Javier Assad is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Iowa to start on Saturday, having spent the season shuttling between the Cubs and Iowa and moving from the rotation to the bullpen. His stuff hasn't been sharp in the surface metrics (a putrid swinging-strike rate drags his pNERD to 2.74), but he's been quietly effective drilling into contact management. Opposite him, Ryan Gusto owns the better peripherals of the two, with a strong strike-throwing rate driving his 4.86 pNERD, and he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The real juice here is on the team side: Chicago's tNERD of 10.42 is elite, powered by standout fielding and batting runs, while the Cubs will try to keep their hold on the top wild-card spot when they visit the Marlins, having supplanted Philadelphia for the top wild-card position with a 6-1 win over the Marlins on Friday. Alex Bregman is locked in, hitting .400 (14-for-35) with five homers and 12 RBIs during an eight-game hitting streak, giving this playoff-race game (13.49 gNERD, comfortably above the day's average) more juice than the arms alone would suggest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 101.9 7.5% 3.8 63.6 -10.5 $246.2M 29.8 2.0 3.01 3.15
Z-score 2.90 -0.19 0.66 3.00 -1.47 0.50 0.67 0.10 1.22 1.62
tNERD 2.90 -0.19 0.66 3.00 -1.47 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.61 0.81 4.00 10.42

Miami Marlins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -2.6 6.6% 7.3 9.8 28.2 $81.5M 27.4 28.0 1.79 1.66
Z-score -0.03 -1.15 1.32 0.45 0.05 -1.39 -1.49 1.43 -1.17 -1.54
tNERD -0.03 -1.15 1.32 0.45 0.05 1.39 1.49 1.43 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.96

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 104 5.9% 62.6% 93.4 mph 28 18.1s -19 0.0%
Z-score 0.15 -2.15 -0.49 -0.36 -0.16 -0.80
pNERD -0.30 -1.07 -0.24 0.00 0.16 0.40 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.74

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 101 9.5% 68.5% 94.2 mph 27 19.5s -9 0.0%
Z-score -0.03 -0.45 1.94 0.00 -0.42 0.35
pNERD 0.06 -0.23 0.97 0.00 0.42 -0.17 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.86

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Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Braxton Ashcraft is quietly having a breakout season for a Pirates team playing its best baseball, and that alone makes this game worth a look even with the Angels doing their best impression of a AAA squad. Ashcraft carries a 14-5 record and has been dominant lately, going 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA over his last seven starts, including a win at St. Louis where he allowed two runs on six hits in five innings. His 11.45 pNERD is comfortably above the 95th percentile for today's slate, powered by elite strike-throwing and a mid-90s heater backed by a sparkling xFIP-. On the other side, Kikuchi is 0-5 and still working back from a lost season; this will be his third start since he missed almost four months due to left shoulder inflammation, so his 5.56 pNERD (bolstered heavily by positive regression luck) comes with real uncertainty attached. The Pirates (6.69 tNERD) bring solid baserunning and bullpen value, while the Angels (1.06 tNERD) are cratering across the board — bad fielding, bad baserunning, bad batting — and have lost 10 of their last 11 and need to go at least 10-11 in their final 21 games to avoid the first 100-game loss season in franchise history. The 12.38 gNERD sits above average largely because of Ashcraft; watch for the pitching, not the plot.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -52.3 7.9% -5.7 -28.6 27.3 $191.6M 28.6 -13.0 2.59 2.01
Z-score -1.42 0.23 -1.12 -1.36 0.02 -0.13 -0.39 -0.66 0.40 -0.80
tNERD -1.42 0.23 -1.12 -1.36 0.02 0.13 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.00 1.06

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 3.5 7.8% 7.8 -18.5 45.4 $119.1M 28.8 -4.0 2.01 1.98
Z-score 0.14 0.13 1.41 -0.89 0.73 -0.96 -0.20 -0.20 -0.74 -0.86
tNERD 0.14 0.13 1.41 -0.89 0.73 0.96 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.69

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 99 10.6% 64.2% 95.6 mph 35 19.8s 37 0.0%
Z-score -0.15 0.06 0.18 0.64 1.72 0.59
pNERD 0.30 0.03 0.09 0.64 0.00 -0.30 1.00 0.00 3.80 5.56

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 77 12.1% 69.6% 97.2 mph 26 17.2s 6 0.0%
Z-score -1.47 0.77 2.40 1.36 -0.69 -1.54
pNERD 2.94 0.38 1.20 1.36 0.69 0.77 0.30 0.00 3.80 11.45

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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

Braves lead the NL East race, this is a playoff-weight series with Atlanta having won the opener, and Zack Wheeler brings ace-level underlying stuff even if his last few starts have been shakier than his season line suggests.

Wheeler's pNERD of 8.42 is comfortably above today's average of 5.28, driven by a sparkling 74 xFIP- and above-average velocity and whiff rate — the classic Wheeler package even if his ERA has crept up lately (he's been the "more accomplished pitcher in a deep slump," per one preview, with rough outings over his last five starts despite a season-long 3.31 ERA and 154 strikeouts). Pérez, by contrast, sits at a modest 3.54 pNERD; he's been effective in results — allowing one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts — but the components here (weak swinging-strike and strike rates) suggest he's getting by on soft-contact management rather than dominant stuff. Team-wise, Atlanta (5.62 tNERD) and Philadelphia (5.20) are both roughly average, with the Phillies' punchless offense (a batting runs figure well below average) somewhat offset by strong baserunning and bullpen work, and a slightly negative team luck for both clubs hinting at better days ahead offensively. The gNERD of 11.40 lands a touch above the historical median (10.80) and just below today's slate average (10.87) — solidly middle-of-the-pack, but the playoff stakes and division rivalry nudge this one up the must-watch list regardless of what the spreadsheet says.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Atlanta Braves

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -4.4 8.5% -2.8 11.5 49.0 $249.8M 30.5 -29.0 2.36 2.36
Z-score -0.08 0.87 -0.58 0.53 0.87 0.54 1.36 -1.48 -0.05 -0.06
tNERD -0.08 0.87 -0.58 0.53 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.62

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -46.7 7.3% 6.5 -1.9 51.3 $309.8M 30.5 -22.0 2.92 2.69
Z-score -1.26 -0.41 1.17 -0.10 0.96 1.22 1.36 -1.12 1.03 0.64
tNERD -1.26 -0.41 1.17 -0.10 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.32 4.00 5.20

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 101 8.9% 61.2% 89.4 mph 35 17.7s -28 0.0%
Z-score -0.03 -0.74 -1.04 -2.16 1.72 -1.13
pNERD 0.06 -0.37 -0.52 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.54

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 74 13.5% 63.6% 95.1 mph 36 18.9s 3 0.0%
Z-score -1.65 1.43 -0.05 0.41 1.98 -0.15
pNERD 3.30 0.71 -0.03 0.41 0.00 0.07 0.15 0.00 3.80 8.42

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Milwaukee's the class of this matchup, but neither starter is doing much to make it a pitching showcase, so watch this one for the Brewers' machine rather than a duel. Milwaukee arrives with an 87-54 record atop the NL Central and has thoroughly owned this series, having won four straight games in Cincinnati this season and gone 7-1 against the Reds overall, backed by a tNERD near the top of today's slate thanks to strong baserunning, bullpen work, and a young, cost-effective roster. Cincinnati's tNERD sits closer to league-average, dragged down by shaky bullpen and batting numbers, though Eugenio Suarez's power (he's tied Ken Griffey Jr. with his 21st homer of the season) keeps things from being a total snooze at the plate. On the mound, Dustin May brings a useful pNERD boost from his velocity, but he's fallen to 0-2 in his past four starts after a rough outing against Texas, and his time in Milwaukee has been ugly so far. Andrew Abbott is the weaker link here, having lost his third straight start last time out, tying season highs in runs and hits allowed in a 17-5 shellacking by the Cubs. Overall gNERD lands almost exactly at the historic median — watchable mostly for the Brewers' quality, not the pitching matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 44.1 7.3% 8.0 0.5 56.9 $139.3M 27.7 -17.0 2.66 2.56
Z-score 1.28 -0.41 1.45 0.01 1.18 -0.73 -1.21 -0.87 0.53 0.37
tNERD 1.28 -0.41 1.45 0.01 1.18 0.73 1.21 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 9.91

Cincinnati Reds

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -49.5 9.2% -0.2 -8.6 -2.7 $147.4M 28.0 11.0 2.09 2.11
Z-score -1.34 1.62 -0.09 -0.42 -1.16 -0.63 -0.94 0.56 -0.59 -0.59
tNERD -1.34 1.62 -0.09 -0.42 -1.16 0.63 0.94 0.56 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.74

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 96 9.6% 64.7% 96.8 mph 28 21.4s 18 0.0%
Z-score -0.33 -0.41 0.39 1.18 -0.16 1.91
pNERD 0.66 -0.20 0.20 1.18 0.16 -0.95 0.90 0.00 3.80 5.74

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 117 9.2% 62.6% 92.5 mph 27 18.4s -12 0.0%
Z-score 0.93 -0.59 -0.47 -0.76 -0.42 -0.56
pNERD -1.86 -0.30 -0.23 0.00 0.42 0.28 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.11

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New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres, 4:15p

Summary

Both New York and San Diego are jockeying for playoff position with something real to play for, but this particular pitching matchup won't leave you glued to your seat—Rodón and Ray are two aging lefties trading league-average results rather than dominance. It's a solidly middle-of-the-pack gNERD score of 10.87, right at today's average, carried almost entirely by the offenses and bullpens rather than the arms on the mound.

San Diego arrives having gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, with a bullpen that just burned through extra innings the previous night, which undercuts the shiny Padres tNERD of 9.57 built on strong fielding and bullpen z-scores. Ray's 20 home runs allowed in 149 innings translates to a HR/9 rate around 1.21, and his pNERD of just 0.95 reflects a below-average strike-throwing rate and a plodding pace that will test your patience between pitches. Rodón's 3.28 pNERD isn't much better, hampered by a similarly poor strike percentage, though his sharper swinging-strike rate at least offers some swing-and-miss appeal. In a matchup where New York may need one big middle-of-the-order blow against Robbie Ray, Rice is the Yankees bat that jumps off the page, leading the team with 36 home runs. Watch for the offense and late innings, not the starters.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

New York Yankees

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 4.3 9.5% 4.7 7.0 44.4 $337.1M 29.9 -23.0 2.08 2.22
Z-score 0.17 1.94 0.83 0.32 0.69 1.54 0.85 -1.18 -0.61 -0.36
tNERD 0.17 1.94 0.83 0.32 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.95

San Diego Padres

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -12.8 8.0% 3.0 20.2 77.2 $255.5M 29.9 -6.0 3.47 3.37
Z-score -0.31 0.34 0.51 0.95 1.98 0.60 0.85 -0.31 2.12 2.09
tNERD -0.31 0.34 0.51 0.95 1.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 1.04 4.00 9.57

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 104 12.5% 61.0% 94.2 mph 33 19.4s -27 0.0%
Z-score 0.15 0.96 -1.14 0.00 1.18 0.26
pNERD -0.30 0.48 -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.28

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 115 10.6% 59.8% 93.0 mph 34 20.2s -37 0.0%
Z-score 0.81 0.06 -1.62 -0.54 1.45 0.92
pNERD -1.62 0.03 -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.46 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.95

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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:10p

Summary

A rookie-of-the-year candidate with legitimately electric stuff facing a fading team that just got swept in a doubleheader — this one leans watchable mostly because of Parker Messick. Messick, Cleveland's 25-year-old lefty, has been the story of Cleveland's summer, and his pNERD of 8.23 backs it up — his xFIP- of 82 and a quick 16.8-second pace make him one of the day's more compelling arms to watch, with his final component of 8.23 sitting well above the "today's games" pitcher average of 5.28. He's coming off an impressive 2.02 ERA along with a tidy 2.68 FIP over six August starts, though the Tigers have had modest success against him this year with a bloated FIP against but respectable contact. On the other side, Framber Valdez brings a pedestrian pNERD of 3.30 and has actually struggled against this very Cleveland lineup, posting a 6.75 ERA and 6.25 FIP over 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them this season. Cleveland's tNERD of 7.01 outpaces Detroit's 2.96, largely thanks to a young, cheap roster and strong baserunning, while Detroit arrives limping after losing both ends of Friday's doubleheader, including a game where they blew a 6-1 lead. Overall gNERD of 10.75 is right around the historic median — watch for Messick, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -7.3 8.1% -3.5 -12.1 9.1 $239.2M 29.6 1.0 2.74 2.64
Z-score -0.16 0.45 -0.71 -0.58 -0.70 0.42 0.58 0.05 0.69 0.54
tNERD -0.16 0.45 -0.71 -0.58 -0.70 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.34 0.27 4.00 2.96

Cleveland Guardians

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -36.7 5.8% 5.8 10.2 42.7 $88.9M 27.6 8.0 2.16 3.14
Z-score -0.98 -2.00 1.04 0.47 0.62 -1.30 -1.35 0.41 -0.44 1.60
tNERD -0.98 -2.00 1.04 0.47 0.62 1.30 1.35 0.41 0.00 0.80 4.00 7.01

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 101 8.5% 64.4% 94.0 mph 32 20.0s 3 0.0%
Z-score -0.03 -0.92 0.25 -0.09 0.91 0.76
pNERD 0.06 -0.46 0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.15 0.00 3.80 3.30

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 82 11.1% 64.0% 93.9 mph 25 16.8s -23 0.0%
Z-score -1.17 0.30 0.09 -0.13 -0.96 -1.87
pNERD 2.34 0.15 0.04 0.00 0.96 0.93 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.23

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Good news for the White Sox has never made it more watchable than the Twins wish it were. Chicago leads the AL Central and just walloped Minnesota, while the Twins limp in banged-up and playoff-hopeful in name only.

The White Sox are the clear draw here, with a tNERD of 8.25 that's well above the historic 95th percentile mark of 9.7 territory, fueled by youth, barrel rate, and a bullpen that's actually been productive. Minnesota's 3.22 tNERD is the drag on this one, hurt by shaky fielding and baserunning, and further complicated by a lineup that is walking out without Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, Joe Ryan, and Cole Sands, though it still has real pieces in Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach. Chicago, meanwhile, comes in with real momentum behind them — the White Sox will try to keep their power surge going after a 4-1 win in Friday's series opener, in which they hit three home runs.

On the mound, Taj Bradley is the reason to tune in, sporting a strong 7.20 pNERD thanks largely to elite velocity (97.2 mph, well above the pack) and useful strikeout stuff — he's compiled a 10–6 record with a 3.85 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 178 strikeouts, ninth-most in MLB. Anthony Kay is the far weaker complementary arm at 2.50 pNERD, and he's winless in his past four starts, with a slower pace and shakier command. Overall gNERD of 10.58 sits almost exactly at the historic median — decent, unspectacular, worth a look mainly for Bradley and Chicago's offense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Minnesota Twins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 27.2 7.9% -5.7 -21.4 10.0 $122.1M 28.9 -9.0 2.30 2.06
Z-score 0.81 0.23 -1.12 -1.02 -0.66 -0.92 -0.06 -0.46 -0.17 -0.69
tNERD 0.81 0.23 -1.12 -1.02 -0.66 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.22

Chicago White Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 20.7 8.4% -4.3 2.6 40.5 $105.8M 27.1 -21.0 1.82 2.57
Z-score 0.63 0.77 -0.86 0.11 0.54 -1.11 -1.76 -1.07 -1.11 0.39
tNERD 0.63 0.77 -0.86 0.11 0.54 1.11 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.19 4.00 8.25

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 93 11.1% 63.2% 97.2 mph 25 19.0s -1 0.0%
Z-score -0.51 0.30 -0.24 1.36 -0.96 -0.06
pNERD 1.02 0.15 -0.12 1.36 0.96 0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.20

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 111 10.4% 62.4% 95.6 mph 31 20.3s -8 0.0%
Z-score 0.57 -0.03 -0.57 0.64 0.65 1.00
pNERD -1.14 -0.02 -0.28 0.64 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.50

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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

Both teams are buried in the standings, but this one still has flavor: two rebuilding-ish clubs sending out young arms trying to prove they belong before the roster crunch hits this winter. Zac Thornton, the Mets' 24-year-old lefty, brings a 2.93 FIP-adjacent ERA and 45 strikeouts over 61.1 innings this year, and has quietly been one of New York's better rotation surprises. Anthony Molina, since arriving in San Francisco via a trade with Atlanta, has been solid too — allowing three earned runs over 9.1 innings across two August starts, with seven strikeouts — though both pitchers carry pNERD scores of zero here simply because we lack the underlying data to grade them, not because they're bad. The Giants' lineup still has teeth thanks to Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez, but the team is dealing with a battered roster — Casey Schmitt, Matt Chapman, and several key pitchers are all sidelined, pushing youngsters into larger roles. The Mets' 5.37 tNERD narrowly outpaces the Giants' 4.03, largely on barrel rate and bullpen strength, but neither is thrilling. At 9.70, this gNERD sits a shade below the historical median (10.80) and well under today's slate average (10.87) — watchable if these matchups interest you, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -8.4 7.5% -6.2 -15.2 8.2 $228.3M 29.6 22.0 3.20 3.49
Z-score -0.19 -0.19 -1.22 -0.73 -0.73 0.29 0.49 1.13 1.59 2.34
tNERD -0.19 -0.19 -1.22 -0.73 -0.73 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.79 1.17 4.00 4.03

New York Mets

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -36.7 8.5% -4.1 1.6 42.7 $374.9M 29.9 -1.0 3.32 3.05
Z-score -0.98 0.87 -0.82 0.07 0.62 1.97 0.85 -0.05 1.82 1.41
tNERD -0.98 0.87 -0.82 0.07 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.70 4.00 5.37

Anthony Molina, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

Good enough info gathered. Let me write the summary.

Coors Field will do what Coors Field does, but don't expect much pitching artistry to make it worth the trip. The Cardinals, clinging to fading Wild Card hopes at 71-71, are in Denver against a Rockies team playing out the string at 54-87, and the gNERD score of 9.70 sits a bit below the historical middle and today's slate average.

St. Louis sends out Matthew Liberatore, who is 5-13 with a 5.41 ERA and 141 strikeouts this season, though his underlying peripherals look better than that ugly ERA suggests — his 6.57 pNERD is driven by strong xFIP- and notably bad luck, so regression toward better results is plausible. Mason Adams, Colorado's starter, carries a pNERD of 0.00, meaning there's simply no track record to evaluate — a blank slate rather than a red flag. Team-wise, the Cardinals' 6.14 tNERD is buoyed by youth and solid fielding, while the Rockies' 1.69 mark reflects a lineup that's been punchless outside Hunter Goodman, who has been the engine of that offense all season with 36 home runs. Jordan Walker delivered a two-run home run in the Cardinals' 13-8 win over Los Angeles earlier this week, so there's some offensive thump to watch for, even if the pitching matchup itself won't be the draw.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -27.3 7.6% 1.5 15.5 1.5 $111.2M 26.9 -32.0 2.17 2.15
Z-score -0.72 -0.09 0.23 0.72 -1.00 -1.05 -1.94 -1.64 -0.43 -0.50
tNERD -0.72 -0.09 0.23 0.72 -1.00 1.05 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.14

Colorado Rockies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -55.2 6.6% -0.3 -20.6 28.9 $134.1M 29.5 11.0 1.73 1.80
Z-score -1.50 -1.15 -0.11 -0.99 0.08 -0.79 0.44 0.56 -1.29 -1.25
tNERD -1.50 -1.15 -0.11 -0.99 0.08 0.79 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 4.00 1.69

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 94 10.4% 63.7% 94.4 mph 26 18.8s 38 0.0%
Z-score -0.45 -0.03 -0.03 0.09 -0.69 -0.23
pNERD 0.90 -0.02 -0.02 0.09 0.69 0.11 1.00 0.00 3.80 6.57

Mason Adams, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles isn't going to jump off the schedule, but Sonny Gray's continued excellence gives it a reason to tune in. This is a Wild Card-race matchup with Boston (77-65) chasing a playoff spot while Baltimore (69-73) is mostly playing out the string, and the Rutschman trade storyline still looms over Camden Yards even if it's faded from the headlines. Gray is the show here — he's posting a 16-4 record, 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this year, and his pNERD of 4.53 reflects genuinely strong peripherals (an xFIP- of 87 is quite good), though his glacial pace works against him in the NERD math. Bassitt, by contrast, enters the game with a 6-4 record this season, along with a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and his 1.44 pNERD is unremarkable, though a modest positive luck figure suggests he's underperforming his skill level and could be sneaky-better than the ERA suggests. Team-wise, both clubs sit a bit above average (Boston 6.69 tNERD, Baltimore 5.74), with Boston's bullpen and outsized luck rating boosting its number. Combined for a 9.20 gNERD, this lands below the historic median (10.80) — a fine game if you like efficient, well-pitched baseball, but not one to rearrange your evening around.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 10.9 7.3% -2.4 7.9 61.3 $263.6M 29.2 23.0 2.47 2.64
Z-score 0.35 -0.41 -0.50 0.36 1.36 0.70 0.17 1.18 0.16 0.54
tNERD 0.35 -0.41 -0.50 0.36 1.36 0.00 0.00 1.18 0.08 0.27 4.00 6.69

Baltimore Orioles

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 12.0 8.7% -3.2 -4.8 45.1 $214.8M 29.0 -16.0 2.82 2.10
Z-score 0.38 1.09 -0.65 -0.24 0.72 0.14 -0.02 -0.82 0.85 -0.61
tNERD 0.38 1.09 -0.65 -0.24 0.72 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.42 0.00 4.00 5.74

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 87 9.9% 64.1% 91.9 mph 36 21.4s -21 0.0%
Z-score -0.87 -0.27 0.14 -1.04 1.98 1.91
pNERD 1.74 -0.13 0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.95 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.53

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 113 8.4% 62.6% 92.1 mph 37 20.7s 8 0.0%
Z-score 0.69 -0.97 -0.46 -0.95 2.25 1.33
pNERD -1.38 -0.49 -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.40 0.00 3.80 1.44

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros, 4:15p

Summary

A middling matchup on paper, elevated slightly by playoff jockeying and a pitching mismatch that could make things lopsided early. Arizona and Houston are both hovering right around .500, and this one's a real coin-flip on the scoreboard — Houston is -112, Arizona -108 on the moneyline — even though the pitching gap looms large. Brandon Pfaadt (7-2, 3.49 ERA) faces off against Ethan Pecko (1-0, 6.23 ERA), and Pecko's lack of any pNERD data reflects just how thin his MLB track record is — this is someone you're watching to find out who he is, not because of a proven arm. Pfaadt's pNERD of 3.76 is unspectacular but respectable, propped up mostly by his youth and strike-throwing, though his low swinging-strike rate keeps him earthbound rather than electric. Arizona's tNERD (5.38) edges Houston's (2.76) thanks to strong baserunning and fielding marks, while Houston's roster skews toward some negative luck that could mean better days ahead. The Diamondbacks are up against a hot Astros squad that just extended their winning streak to three, with Houston narrowly beating them 3-1 last time out. At 8.45, the gNERD sits below both the historic and today's averages — a fine background game, not a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -30.7 7.0% 8.4 27.9 28.9 $231.6M 30.2 -15.0 2.19 1.92
Z-score -0.81 -0.72 1.53 1.31 0.08 0.33 1.08 -0.77 -0.39 -0.99
tNERD -0.81 -0.72 1.53 1.31 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.38

Houston Astros

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 16.9 7.8% -7.3 -11.8 25.6 $232.7M 28.9 -7.0 2.17 1.99
Z-score 0.52 0.13 -1.42 -0.57 -0.05 0.34 -0.16 -0.36 -0.42 -0.84
tNERD 0.52 0.13 -1.42 -0.57 -0.05 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.76

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 105 9.2% 65.4% 93.2 mph 27 19.3s -22 0.0%
Z-score 0.21 -0.59 0.69 -0.45 -0.42 0.18
pNERD -0.42 -0.30 0.34 0.00 0.42 -0.09 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.76

Ethan Pecko, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Athletics on the road are apparently a menace lately, and George Kirby's arm is the best reason to tune into this one. This is a below-average watchability game overall, but Kirby's start against a lineup that's been getting knocked around gives it a reason to check in. The Mariners are clinging to their playoff hopes while the A's are playing spoiler, and oddly enough it's been the road team winning this series lately — the Athletics have won the past two meetings scoring seven runs in each game, with Seattle struggling through three straight home losses while Oakland has snatched up three consecutive road wins.

Kirby is the headline here, boasting a 7.48 pNERD (well above the 5.26 historical average) thanks to plus velocity, elite strike-throwing, and solid peripherals — his xFIP- of 94 suggests he's better than his surface numbers indicate. Springs, on the other hand, brings a paltry 1.92 pNERD, dragged down by a rough 121 xFIP-, and has been getting hit hard in his recent turns. Both teams are mediocre on paper — tNERD scores of 3.05 and 2.51 sit well below average, with both clubs dragged down by shaky fielding and below-average baserunning. The overall gNERD of 7.48 lands in the bottom quartile of games historically and near the bottom of today's slate, so this is one to watch mainly for Kirby's arm rather than for the surrounding baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Athletics

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -21.2 7.6% -6.2 -37.8 17.5 $135.2M 28.2 31.0 1.27 1.94
Z-score -0.55 -0.09 -1.22 -1.80 -0.37 -0.77 -0.71 1.59 -2.19 -0.95
tNERD -0.55 -0.09 -1.22 -1.80 -0.37 0.77 0.71 1.59 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.05

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 4.7 7.6% -4.6 -37.3 14.3 $196.7M 28.4 17.0 2.35 2.52
Z-score 0.18 -0.09 -0.92 -1.78 -0.49 -0.07 -0.52 0.87 -0.07 0.28
tNERD 0.18 -0.09 -0.92 -1.78 -0.49 0.07 0.52 0.87 0.00 0.14 4.00 2.51

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 121 9.6% 62.9% 91.4 mph 33 19.5s 21 0.0%
Z-score 1.17 -0.41 -0.34 -1.26 1.18 0.35
pNERD -2.34 -0.20 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.17 1.00 0.00 3.80 1.92

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 94 10.9% 67.3% 96.8 mph 28 19.2s 13 0.0%
Z-score -0.45 0.20 1.47 1.18 -0.16 0.10
pNERD 0.90 0.10 0.74 1.18 0.16 -0.05 0.65 0.00 3.80 7.48

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10p

Summary

I have enough here.

A wild-card scrap between a scuffling Toronto club and a Kansas City team playing out the string, with two veteran pitchers who've both seen better days. The Blue Jays are clawing for their playoat life while the Royals are just trying to spoil the party, and the pitching matchup does little to inspire confidence in either direction.

Toronto sits 13.5 games back in the division but is very much alive in the wild card conversation, having gone 21-13 since July 27, and they enter having gone 7-3 over their last ten games riding a three-game winning streak — including a Friday blowout where nine different Blue Jays recorded a hit. On the mound, Max Scherzer is the headline name but not the reason to tune in: Scherzer is 2-7 with a 6.16 ERA — a difficult stretch for a veteran who has been one of the game's most decorated starters, and his xFIP-backed pNERD of 1.37 reflects real skill decline, not just bad luck (well, actually some good luck, since his 23.0 luck score suggests he's earned an even worse line than his ERA shows). Seth Lugo is modestly more interesting statistically, his quick pace and respectable peripherals pushing him to a 4.14 pNERD, though he has struck out 118 batters but carries a 5.03 ERA of his own. Both teams' offenses and shaky bullpens (Kansas City's especially, a full two standard deviations below average) suggest a laugher is as likely as a pitcher's duel. At a 6.36 gNERD — well below both the historical and today's average — this one's a bottom-of-the-list watch unless you're a Jays fan sweating the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -36.5 5.8% -3.1 33.0 35.7 $306.1M 30.1 1.0 3.10 2.39
Z-score -0.98 -2.00 -0.64 1.55 0.35 1.18 0.99 0.05 1.40 0.01
tNERD -0.98 -2.00 -0.64 1.55 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.70 0.00 4.00 3.04

Kansas City Royals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -10.5 8.0% 4.1 13.1 -33.7 $184.5M 29.7 18.0 2.11 2.22
Z-score -0.25 0.34 0.72 0.61 -2.38 -0.21 0.62 0.92 -0.54 -0.36
tNERD -0.25 0.34 0.72 0.61 -2.38 0.21 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.17

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 126 9.1% 63.9% 93.3 mph 41 19.6s 23 0.0%
Z-score 1.47 -0.64 0.08 -0.40 3.32 0.43
pNERD -2.94 -0.32 0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.21 1.00 0.00 3.80 1.37

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 107 7.7% 63.8% 91.6 mph 36 16.3s 10 0.0%
Z-score 0.33 -1.30 0.02 -1.17 1.98 -2.28
pNERD -0.66 -0.65 0.01 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.50 0.00 3.80 4.14

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