MLB: What to watch on September 6, 2026

• 06 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:10a

Summary

A Brewers rotation arm chasing forearm-tightness redemption against a Reds bullpen that's been running on fumes — this one has enough moving parts to be worth a look, even if the pitching matchup is lopsided. Milwaukee's tNERD of 9.84 reflects a genuinely fun team: strong baserunning, a shutdown bullpen, and a young, cheap roster that overachieves its payroll. Cincinnati checks in lower at 5.10, dragged down by weak batting runs and bullpen performance, though positive luck suggests some regression upward is coming. On the mound, Kyle Harrison (pNERD 10.64) brings excellent strikeout stuff and a tidy xFIP-, but he's trying to bounce back from a disastrous start, having allowed nine runs on 10 hits -- including five homers -- in 3 2/3 innings against the Cubs, with pitch-tipping suspected as a culprit. Brady Singer (pNERD 4.72) is the weaker link statistically, though Cincinnati emptied its bullpen across Friday and Saturday, with every one of the team's eight active relievers pitching in one of those two games — meaning length from Singer matters more than usual. Today's gNERD of 15.15 sits well above both the historical and today's-slate averages, making this one of the more watchable matchups on the board despite Cincinnati's rough season.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

A high-scoring gNERD matchup with a good story attached: Clay Holmes, back from a broken fibula, closing out a Cubs sweep bid against a fading Marlins team playing out the string. This one grades out well above both the historical and today's-game averages, and the details back it up.

Holmes was traded to Chicago in August and fractured his right fibula in May before joining the Cubs on an August 3 trade, with Sunday marking roughly his sixth start since being activated on August 8, having allowed just five earned runs across his last 29 innings. That kind of return-from-injury storyline, paired with a sinker-heavy, contact-suppressing profile, gives him a solid pNERD reading even if his strikeout stuff isn't loud. On the other side, Tyler Phillips brings a live arm — a 96.1 mph four-seamer and an 84.2 mph sweeper with a 33.3% whiff rate, with his splitter serving as his best weapon at a 34.4% whiff rate — though his control is shakier, evidenced by a WHIP that suggests he'll put runners on base.

The bigger draw is the Cubs' team profile, which ranks near the top of today's slate thanks to elite batting and fielding runs, offset some by a shaky bullpen. Miami's tNERD gets a boost from youth, payroll thrift, and positive luck (suggesting they've actually underperformed their true talent, not overperformed). The Cubs are chasing a wild card spot and can't afford to let a winnable series slip, backed by a road record that reflects genuine competence, while Miami is playing spoiler with the season effectively over. Good pitching, motivated Cubs, nothing at stake for Miami — a solid, watchable Sunday matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Miami Marlins

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

I've got great material now. Let me write the summary.

A rubber match with legit wild-card stakes and a rematch of the Michael King trade, this one's got juice beyond the NERD math. Cole (7.66 pNERD) is the headliner here, still pumping mid-90s heat at 35 with elite command — he's been the more trustworthy arm in this series and his xFIP- of 86 backs it up. King (3.70 pNERD) is respectable but walk-prone; the walks are the difference between the two profiles, as King has issued roughly 3.5 free passes per nine while Cole sits near 1.9. San Diego's tNERD (9.36) is buoyed by a strong bullpen and fielding, plus it's simply a nice broadcast to watch, but the Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 and clinging to a wild-card spot, while the Yankees just won 5-1 to even the series. Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions suggest a tight, low-scoring affair rather than a slugfest. At 14.35, the gNERD score sits comfortably above today's 11.55 average and well past the historical mean, making this one of the more watchable matchups on the board, even if the storyline outshines the raw stuff on a couple of these arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

New York Yankees

San Diego Padres

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Los Angeles is playing without Ohtani, giving this series-finale extra intrigue while the Dodgers still chase down a top playoff bye, making this a solidly above-average watch for a Sunday night getaway game. Washington arrives limping on a six-game road skid, but this is one of the higher gNERD scores on the board today, and both offenses have real thump behind them — Washington's baserunning has been outstanding all year, and the Dodgers' bat-driven attack ranks near the top of the NL. Wrobleski, an All-Star this season, returns to the rotation with a tidy strikeout rate and quick pace that pushes his pNERD to 6.70; Alvarez is coming off his best start of the season, a six-inning scoreless outing against Miami last Sunday, and will be making his first career start at Dodger Stadium, notably close to his hometown. The Dodgers have played the last three games without Ohtani, who's dealing with biceps, neck and knee issues, while Rushing, Freeman, Smith and Muncy have all been shuffled or scratched, so LA's lineup won't be at full strength. Washington's bullpen is the obvious soft spot — thin and shaky — but the top-line matchup and playoff stakes for LA make this an easy recommend among today's games.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Washington Nationals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Gavin Williams looks like a legitimate reason to tune in, even if the rest of this September getaway game between two fading-to-mediocre AL Central clubs isn't must-see TV. Williams brings a filthy arm to Progressive Field: he's 13-7 with a 3.81 ERA over 28 starts and 163 innings this season, striking out 11.98 batters per nine, and he's fresh off seven scoreless innings against Toronto on September 1 with a career-high 13 strikeouts. His pNERD of 12.78 is elite—well above today's average of 5.94 and in the 95th-percentile range historically—driven by a filthy xFIP and a positive luck value suggesting he's actually been slightly unlucky given his stuff. Jobe, on the other hand, is still finding his feet five starts into his return from Tommy John surgery, and his 4.76 pNERD reflects wildness (SwStr% and Strike% both below average) offset by big velocity and youth. Team-wise, Cleveland's 6.74 tNERD (payroll and age components doing heavy lifting) outpaces Detroit's middling 3.06, and the Guardians have dominated this season's series, winning 9 of 11 head-to-head meetings this season. With a gNERD of 13.67—comfortably above both the historical and today's averages—this is worth a look mostly for the pitching mismatch, even if the standings race has mostly evaporated for Detroit.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Good, I have enough. Now let me write the summary.

Rays lead AL East by four games with baseball's best record, but this is a series finale with mixed motivation levels — Tampa's already comfortable while Texas is scrapping for a wild-card spot. The pitching matchup rewards patience over power: Ian Seymour brings the higher pNERD by a wide margin thanks to excellent command indicators, though he's lost his last four decisions, most recently allowing three runs over 6.1 innings against the Mets. MacKenzie Gore counters with mid-90s velocity and a strikeout-heavy profile, backed by a strong recent stretch, though his control has been shaky.A tale of two seasons colliding in Arlington, with better pitching than the standings gap suggests. Tampa Bay arrives with baseball's best record and a four-game AL East cushion, while Texas is scrapping for wild-card life; that mismatch in stakes is offset by two lefties who make this more watchable than the records imply. Ian Seymour owns the far superior pNERD here, built on sharp command indicators (strong strike and swinging-strike rates translating into an xFIP- in the 80s), even though he enters 9-6 with a 4.21 ERA and the Rays have lost his last four starts, including a six-hit, three-run outing over 6.1 innings against the Mets. MacKenzie Gore brings mid-90s velocity and a strikeout-friendly profile, and has flashed swing-and-miss stuff with a strong recent run, a 2.77 ERA over his last seven starts, though his command lags Seymour's. Both team tNERDs sit near league-average, with Texas getting a lucky-team bump that suggests some regression could be coming. Today's slate averages 11.55, so this 12.74 gNERD lands comfortably above par—a solid, if unspectacular, pick.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

Great matchup for pitching but a lopsided one for everything else, and a nice childhood-fandom subplot makes it worth a look even if the Angels are running on fumes. Paul Skenes carries an elite pNERD of 10.20 thanks to a filthy xFIP- of 79 and a mid-90s heater, but his last several outings tell a shakier story: over his last five starts he has allowed 17 earned runs in 24.2 innings, and he has cleared six innings once in six outings, and he enters on a seven-start winless streak after picking up a no-decision in his last start on Tuesday against San Francisco. There's a nice bit of symmetry here too — the hard-throwing right-hander hasn't pitched against the team he rooted for growing up in southern California, having starred for El Toro High School in Lake Forest, about a short drive from Angel Stadium. Opposite him, 22-year-old Walbert Ureña (pNERD 7.35, riding a triple-digit fastball at nearly 98 mph) has been the Angels' pleasant surprise, yielding just a .203 batting average in 23 starts and coming off arguably the best start of his career, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings with no walks in a 10-1 win over the Yankees. Team-wise, it's lopsided — Pittsburgh's solid 6.67 tNERD (helped by strong baserunning and bullpen work) dwarfs a last-place Angels club (1.08 tNERD) that's trying to avoid the first 100-loss season in franchise history. With a combined gNERD of 12.65 — above the historical median and today's average — this one earns its watch mostly on pitching upside, not team quality.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Pittsburgh Pirates

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Boston's rookie sensation Payton Tolle faces off against a struggling Kyle Bradish, and the numbers suggest this could be a laugher — but Tolle's stuff alone makes it worth a look. With a gNERD of 12.32, this one sits solidly above the historic median (10.8) and roughly in line with today's average (11.55), driven almost entirely by the pitching mismatch. Tolle, Boston's 23-year-old lefty and 2024 second-round pick, checks in with a robust 9.85 pNERD — he recorded a career-high 14 strikeouts over six innings against the Athletics on August 7, becoming the youngest Red Sox pitcher to reach that threshold since Roger Clemens. His secret sauce is elite command and swing-and-miss stuff for his age, not simply gaudy strikeout totals. Bradish, by contrast, limps in with a 2.57 pNERD, and has not earned a victory since July 22 and allowed 12 runs over his final 15 innings entering Sunday. Boston has been thoroughly outclassing Baltimore in this series — outscoring Baltimore 12-5 across the first three games — and looks poised for a sweep. Boston's tNERD (6.50) edges Baltimore's (5.72), buoyed by a strong bullpen and some positive regression luck. Not a marquee slugfest, but Tolle's emergence makes this a legitimate watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:10a

Summary

A tight NL East scrap with playoff stakes attached, even if the pitching matchup is more solid than sizzling. The Braves roll into Philly clinging to a division lead while the Phillies keep clawing back, and this series has real juice — September now feels like October in Philadelphia, with the club chasing down the Braves who are in town for four games. Saturday's game went to Atlanta's rival with the Braves falling 4-2 behind a Zack Wheeler gem, so Sunday's rubber match carries some bite. On the mound, Aaron Nola's ugly season-long ERA hides a hot streak — Nola sports a 4.93 ERA and 1.40 WHIP overall but pitched to a 2.65 ERA in August — and his 5.77 pNERD reflects solid strikeout stuff (xFIP- of 90) plus some positive regression coming given his tough recent luck. Tyler Mahle mirrors him almost exactly at 5.74 pNERD, similarly xFIP-friendly. Both teams grade as roughly average on tNERD (Atlanta 5.65, Philly 5.23), with strong bullpens for both but middling offense from Philadelphia. Overall gNERD of 11.19 sits a touch above the historical median and near today's average — a decent, not electric, watch elevated mostly by the standings implications rather than the raw stuff on the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

Both teams are out of playoff contention drama except Seattle's fading wild-card hopes, but this game features one of baseball's quieter aces doing his usual excellent work against a rookie lefty still finding his footing. Bryan Woo carries the day here, and deservedly so — his xFIP- of 89 and strikeout-heavy peripherals back up a legitimate 8.09 pNERD, comfortably above today's average, with plus velocity and command that make him one of the more watchable arms on the slate even if his 4.25 ERA undersells how well he's actually pitching. Gage Jump, the 23-year-old rookie southpaw, is more of a mixed bag: his stuff (96-plus mph, sharp underlying performance in Sunday's odds table) is legit, but he's been scuffling to a 5.15 ERA and enters with the Athletics having won four in a row for the first time since June 13, so at least the vibes are trending up even if the process says otherwise. Both teams are middling on the tNERD side — sloppy fielding drags both down — with Seattle sitting a season-worst 11 games under .500 and seven back in the AL West. This is a pitching-matchup game, not a lineup one; watch it for Woo.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Gage Jump, Athletics

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

A season-finale series matchup between two also-rans, but with an actual pitching storyline worth tuning in for. Both the Giants (59-84) and Mets (64-78) are playing out the string, but rookie lefty Cesar Perdomo gets his first career MLB start after a promising relief debut where he allowed only one run on a solo home run over four innings while striking out four hitters. He draws no pNERD score simply because there's no track record yet — pure lottery ticket. Christian Scott, on the other hand, brings real numbers: a strong strikeout rate and solid velocity give him a 5.77 pNERD, though his command has wobbled lately — his command has slipped, and over his last five starts he has allowed 17 earned runs in 25.1 innings, a 6.04 mark, while walking 14. Neither offense is scary — the Mets' batting runs are well below average and the Giants aren't running or fielding their way to relevance — though Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez remain worth watching in the box score. At 10.08 gNERD, this sits a bit below the historic average and squarely in the middle of today's slate — watchable mostly for Perdomo's debut and Scott's swing-and-miss stuff.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

New York Mets

Cesar Perdomo, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Christian Scott, New York Mets

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 3:20p

Summary

A middling gNERD score hides a genuinely interesting pitching mismatch, even if neither lineup will make you forget how baseball works. At 9.50, today's gNERD sits below both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.55), but the split here comes almost entirely from a scrappy, well-run White Sox club (tNERD 8.12, buoyed by MLB's second-youngest roster) squaring off against a Twins team (tNERD 3.20) that's been sloppy on the bases and in the field all year. On the mound, Bryan Hudson has been the story: he's allowed 0 earned runs in each of his last three outings, backing up a 5.55 pNERD built on a tidy xFIP-. Bailey Ober, by contrast, is still finding his footing after a flexor strain in June that kept him sidelined for a month, and his xFIP- north of 115 explains the modest 2.13 pNERD despite decent surface numbers. The White Sox sit near the top of the AL Central and have taken the season series from Minnesota 7-4 with a +23 run differential, so if you're watching for one team to feel like it matters more, that's your answer.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

Bryan Hudson, Chicago White Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

A hometown kid returns to altitude, but the standings gap between these two clubs makes this more sentimental than must-see. Leahy, a Boulder native, gets to pitch in his home state against a Rockies team that's spent the season parked in last place in the NL West.

The Cardinals arrive in this series finale meeting Sunday afternoon in the final game of a three game series, with St. Louis at 71-72, third in the NL Central, still clinging to postseason hopes, while Colorado sits at 54-87 playing out the string. Saturday's series middle game was a track meet — the Rockies broke out for a six-run fifth inning and finished with 11 hits in a 10-7 win — so don't expect similar fireworks from these starters. Leahy's been the Cardinals' most dependable arm, backing a strong xFIP- with a 118-strikeout season, and his pNERD reflects real swing-and-miss quality even if the surface stats undersell it. Gordon is homer-prone at Coors but has quietly settled down, allowing one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. Both team NERDs are middling-to-poor — Colorado's punchless offense and shaky defense drag it toward the bottom of today's tNERD range — making this one a background game unless you're rooting for Leahy's homecoming.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Colorado Rockies

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

Late-season finale between two playoff hopefuls, but the gNERD math says this is more “tune in for the standings implications” than “tune in for the baseball.” Arizona and Houston close out a tied series with Arizona clinging to the NL's third wild-card spot by half a game over San Diego, and Houston sitting atop the AL West by three games — so the stakes are real even if the stat lines aren't sparkling. Houston is 73-70 and leads the AL West by three games, while Arizona is 75-68, sits second in the NL West, and holds the third National League wild card spot with San Diego half a game back. Eduardo Rodriguez has been the steadier arm lately, having allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts, working deep and limiting damage, though his modest pNERD (3.36) reflects unremarkable strikeout stuff. Peter Lambert (pNERD 2.59) offers similarly middling upside. Arizona's tNERD (5.42) is buoyed by strong baserunning and fielding, while Houston's paltry 2.75 tNERD is dragged down by poor baserunning and D. Both offenses have gone cold — each hit .211 as a team across their last 10 games — and with a gNERD of 7.06, well below the day's average of 11.55, this is a game to check the score on rather than clear your schedule for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Houston Astros

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Toronto’s fighting for a Wild Card spot, but this matchup is more about survival than must-watch baseball. Kansas City is playing out the string well below .500, and the pitching matchup does little to elevate things — Arrighetti owns a bloated 4.82 ERA and has issued 55 walks in 99 innings this year, a command problem that shows up clearly in his ugly 121 xFIP- and rock-bottom 0.56 pNERD, one of the weaker marks you'll see today (range: 0.56–12.78). Dobnak fares a touch better at 3.86 pNERD thanks to a quick pace, but he's shakier than his 2.65 ERA suggests, with an xFIP- of 101 and a recent implosion against Miami where he allowed a season-high six runs and seven hits, including two homers, over six innings. Notably, Kansas City stars Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen are a combined 8-for-16 against Arrighetti, though Caglianone left Saturday's game with elbow soreness and is questionable. The Royals' bullpen is a genuine mess, ranking near the bottom of MLB and dragging tNERD down. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 5.97 — well below the 10.81 historic average and today's 11.55 mean — making this one mostly skippable unless you're specifically tracking Toronto's playoff push.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals

Spencer Arrighetti, Toronto Blue Jays

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

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