MLB: What to watch on September 7, 2026

• 07 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

A tight NL Central race gives this one stakes, even if the arms on the mound are more workmanlike than dominant. Milwaukee holds a seven-game lead over Chicago, and with the Brewers looking to lock up the season series for tiebreaker purposes, this rematch of last week's series at Wrigley carries some late-season weight. Chicago won the most recent meeting 2-1, splitting a four-game series after Milwaukee had taken the middle two games by lopsided scores. Neither bullpen is fresh — Milwaukee's pen got overworked in a 12-8 loss in Cincinnati while Chicago's did the same in a 10-3 blowout in Miami, so neither unit arrives rested. Milwaukee is also without Brandon Woodruff and lost Quinn Priester for the season, forcing more bullpen reliance — but the Brewers' actual bullpen NERD component is strong, offsetting that. On the mound, Boyd and Gasser are both middling by NERD (3.92 and 4.74, roughly average for today's slate), though Gasser gets a bump from being unlucky this year. The real juice here is the offense and depth on both sides — this gNERD of 14.47 sits well above the historical average and near today's high end, making it one of the better watches on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

A rookie-adjacent ace with a wipeout slider takes the mound against baseball's best lineup, and the Reds' bullpen plan alone is worth the price of admission. This game rates 14.25 on the gNERD scale, comfortably above both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.60), and it's easy to see why once you look past the standings.

The headline is Chase Burns, whose 10.38 pNERD is well above the 95th percentile historically — he's been outstanding in 2026 with a 1.16 WHIP and a 28.9% strikeout rate that ranks among the best in the National League, fueled by upper-90s velocity and elite whiff rates. There's a wrinkle worth watching: a right elbow flexor strain briefly sidelined him this summer, and the Reds have been managing his workload carefully ever since, which explains why Terry Francona plans to piggyback Brandon Williamson behind Burns to keep his innings down. The Dodgers' response is a mystery-box TBD, reportedly journeyman/rookie fill-in Emmet Sheehan, whose stuff has been hittable in the minors.

Team-wise, the Dodgers (8.11 tNERD) bring a top-tier offense and bullpen, riding a four-game win streak, while the Reds (5.01 tNERD) are scuffling but oddly barrel the ball well. Not a must-watch pitching duel on paper, but Burns alone makes it worth tuning in early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres, 2:10p

Summary

Nick Pivetta's return from a five-month elbow absence is the whole story here, and it's a genuinely fun one to tune into. The Padres are activating Pivetta off the 60-day IL for his first big-league start since he walked off the mound mid-rehab back in April, and last year he finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting behind a 2.87 ERA. His final tune-up was encouraging — "4⅓ scoreless innings and seven strikeouts on 64 pitches" — though the team has him on a restricted pitch count, so don't expect length. No sample exists yet for our pNERD model, hence his 0.00, but the small-sample peripherals (13.5 K/9, sub-1.15 WHIP) suggest real swing-and-miss stuff if the elbow holds. Jake Irvin, by contrast, is a well-quantified mess this year — his xFIP- and shaky command drag him to a middling 3.61 pNERD, salvaged only by tough luck. The Padres own the far better bullpen and broadcast ratings, pushing tNERD to a strong 9.48, and Washington's baserunning and pop give it a respectable 8.65 too. Combined 13.37 gNERD lands comfortably above today's average, worth a look mostly for the Pivetta subplot.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Washington Nationals

San Diego Padres

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 10:10a

Summary

Miami's stealthy playoff push meets a Mets team basically running out the string with an intriguing arm, and the pitching matchup alone makes this worth a look. Eury Pérez brings a 7.27 pNERD built on a 98 mph fastball, elite swinging-strike rate, and a still-youthful frame at 23 — a career-low hard-hit rate and career-best ground-ball rate show he's evolving from thrower to pitcher even as his strikeout rate dips. Opposite him is Jonah Tong, whose pNERD reads zero simply because there's no real big-league track record yet — the Mets promoted him for this game and likely the rest of the season after going 10-5 with a 1.43 ERA in the minors last year. The Marlins' 9.16 tNERD is buoyed by youth, a shoestring payroll relative to New York's spending, and some positive regression looming after underperforming their peripherals. New York's tNERD trails but still contributes thanks to bullpen strength and broadcast quality. The last eight meetings between these clubs have all stayed under the total, so don't expect fireworks — just a tidy afternoon of watchable, low-scoring baseball with a rookie worth monitoring.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:05a

Summary

Jesús Luzardo is pitching like the best version of himself right now, and that alone makes this one worth clearing your schedule for. The Phillies lefty enters having been named NL Pitcher of the Month for August, and he's 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA across his last five outings, missing bats at an elite clip with 209 strikeouts on the season. His 10.51 pNERD is well above today's average of 5.91 and sits near the historic 95th percentile, backed by a filthy xFIP- of 70 and a fastball touching 96.5 mph — the run-prevention and swing-and-miss profile of a true ace. Grant Holmes is a serviceable if unspectacular counter, with a middling xFIP- and modest 3.57 pNERD, and reports note Holmes generates outs but invites baserunners at a higher rate than his counterpart.

The teams themselves are roughly average watchability-wise — both Atlanta and Philadelphia sit near league-median tNERD, though the Phillies get a bump from broadcast quality and Atlanta's bullpen has quietly been strong. Storyline-wise, Atlanta has already clinched the season series against Philadelphia, up 7-3 with four games left to play, and they've won three of the four meetings so far in this very series, giving this getaway-day finale some divisional pride on the line even with the standings largely settled. Not a must-watch offense, but Luzardo's stuff makes it worthwhile.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

I have enough to write the summary.

Cleveland is chasing a playoff spot while Baltimore is spiraling toward a lost season, and the pitching matchup is sharper than either team's recent offense deserves. Trevor Rogers carries the highest pNERD in this game thanks largely to a strong strike-throwing profile, and he's been legitimately good lately: he owns a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.3 BB/9 walk rate, with a 2.41 ERA over his 12 starts since June 1, including a September 2 outing against Colorado where he went 6.2 innings, allowed two earned runs, walked nobody and struck out 11. Cantillo isn't far behind, propped up by solid whiff and command numbers even if his velocity doesn't jump off the page. The Orioles, though, are limping into this one — Cleveland is surging and firmly in the playoff picture, four games clear of a Baltimore club that has watched its wild-card hopes evaporate over a rough stretch, having lost six of its past seven games. Cleveland's tNERD (6.70) edges Baltimore's (5.83), both comfortably above-average by historical standards, and the gNERD of 12.19 sits right around today's slate average — solid, if unspectacular, appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Baltimore Orioles

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Not a game to rearrange your schedule for: a last-place club's bullpen arm making a rare spot start against a fringe wild-card contender, with the real intrigue confined to the numbers rather than the mound matchup on paper. Derek Law technically starts for Arizona, but he's purely a reliever who has bounced around over the years, on his 7th team since breaking through with the San Francisco Giants a decade ago, and he's thrown only four innings this year after missing all of 2025 due to right forearm inflammation — hence the pNERD goose egg, since there's simply no track record to grade. Noah Cameron is the actual draw here, and his 5.65 pNERD (comfortably above today's 5.91 average) reflects a quietly effective lefty who's allowed just six runs across 25 innings in his last four starts, including a one-hit, eight-strikeout complete-game shutout of the Angels on Aug. 16. Team-wise, Arizona's 76-68 wild-card push gives their tNERD a lift via strong baserunning and fielding marks, while Kansas City's 4.38 mark is dragged down hard by a shaky bullpen — though positive luck suggests their run prevention should actually improve. Overall gNERD of 10.32 sits almost exactly at the historical median, a solidly average watch elevated mainly by Cameron's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Kansas City Royals

Derek Law, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, 12:10p

Summary

Two teams playing out the string, but there's a genuine redemption-arc subplot worth tuning in for. Joe Ryan makes his first major league appearance since early August, when a strained left glute sent him to the injured list, while across the mound Troy Melton is looking to erase the memory of struggling mightily against the Twins last week, giving up seven runs in 5.1 innings of work — a game Minnesota won 15-2. That head-to-head grudge match gives this one a sliver of juice despite both clubs (68-75 Twins, 65-78 Tigers) being deep in also-ran territory in the AL Central.

The gNERD of 9.76 sits a bit below the historic average of 10.81 and well under today's 11.60 average, dragged down by thin tNERD marks (2.98 combined) — neither offense nor bullpen impresses on paper. The pitching, though, is the selling point: Melton's 7.08 pNERD is buoyed by his 96.2 mph heat and youth, while Ryan's 6.48 mark leans on plus command (elite strike rate) and a strong xFIP-, even after missing over a month. If Melton's slider command has recovered from last week's meltdown, this could be a tidy pitchers' afternoon worth catching for the arms alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

Boston is chasing a wild card spot while the Angels are just playing spoiler, and that tension is really the only thing propping up this game's watchability. The Red Sox sit in the second wild-card spot riding a four-game winning streak, and every game carries real weight as the calendar shrinks, with a four-game winning streak giving Boston momentum heading into the series. The Angels, meanwhile, are 18.5 games back and mostly auditioning September call-ups, though Neto and Trout give Los Angeles the firepower to play spoiler — and Trout is fresh off returning to the lineup after getting hit by a pitch. Neither starter inspires much confidence: Rodriguez owns a 6.03 ERA and Bello a 5.07 ERA, and one betting preview bluntly notes Bello has been trending the wrong way, with a climbing expected-wOBA, back-to-back four-run outings, and shrinking pitch counts. Underlying stats like the Angels putting up dreadful batting, baserunning, and fielding runs numbers, offset with the Red Sox posting a strong bullpen mark and positive Luck component (Boston's may improve further, Rodriguez's own outsized Luck score suggests better days ahead too), the gNERD of 9.63 lands below today's average of 11.60 and the historical median of 10.80 — a watchable but skippable game, best reserved for wild-card standings obsessives.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Los Angeles Angels

Boston Red Sox

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants, 5:10p

Summary

A fairly middling matchup between a fading also-ran and a .500 team that's still mathematically breathing, saved mostly by Logan Webb trying to erase a nightmare last outing. The Giants (59-85) are playing out the string while the Cardinals (72-72) are clinging to wild-card relevance, and that stakes gap shows up in the gNERD score of 9.51 — below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate (11.60). Webb carries the show here with a 5.73 pNERD, boosted by a tidy 91 xFIP-, though he's coming off a disaster start where he "tossed two innings while giving up nine earned runs on nine hits" against Pittsburgh — worth watching just to see which Webb shows up. McGreevy (3.51 pNERD) has been shakier lately too, and he "hasn't performed well in night games (4.86 ERA, 5.47 xERA) and enters play in poor form, conceding three or more runs in six of his last eight." St. Louis's tNERD (6.04) edges the Giants' (3.73), helped by a young, cheap roster, but injuries to Wetherholt and Winn have thinned the lineup. Not appointment viewing, but a legitimate spoiler-vs-pride storyline with better pitching than the team standings suggest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

St. Louis Cardinals

San Francisco Giants

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Dylan Cease pitching a de facto playoff audition against baseball's worst run-differential team is the main draw here, even if the Athletics side of the ledger offers little resistance. Cease brings a 9.42 pNERD—well above today's 5.91 average—built on elite whiff and velocity marks; he's been the one constant in a Toronto rotation battered by injuries, and that reliability matters more than ever right now, with Jameson Taillon back on the IL and Toronto sitting a game back of a wild-card spot. He's been genuinely sharp lately, with six scoreless innings on four hits at Cleveland on September 2, though he hasn't gone deep into games recently. Jacob Lopez, by contrast, is replacement-level on paper (1.04 pNERD) despite throwing well since the All-Star break, with just 13 earned runs allowed in 49.2 innings. Team-wise this is a forgettable pairing—both tNERDs sit near replacement level, and Oakland has been outscored by 186 runs this season, the worst differential in the American League. The 8.43 gNERD lands below both the historic and today's averages, so watch for Cease's stuff, not the surrounding baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Athletics

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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