MLB: What to watch on September 9, 2026

• 09 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

This is the top-rated game of the day, and it's not particularly close. A tightly-wound rubber match closes out the season series between the Cubs and Brewers, with Milwaukee riding a big NL Central cushion and eyeing a home sweep. Logan Henderson has quietly become one of the best young arms in baseball — sitting at 9-3 with a 2.48 ERA and a microscopic 0.79 WHIP across 83.1 innings — and his 8.73 pNERD backs that up, built on excellent strike-throwing and a stingy xFIP-. Gausman's been shakier of late but still owns a strong résumé; the two actually dueled six days ago, when these two starters combined for 14 innings and three earned runs in a 2-1 Cubs win. Both team offenses are lively — Chicago's power (led by a Pete Crow-Armstrong breakout) and Milwaukee's youthful, athletic lineup both grade out well in tNERD, with the Brewers boosted by strong fielding and bullpen work. At 18.03, this gNERD sits well above the historic 95th percentile and is the day's high mark, making it the easy pick if you only have time for one game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

San Diego's playoff push meets Washington's fade in a series finale that's more watchable than the standings would suggest. The Padres are clinging to the final NL Wild Card spot, a game behind Arizona, while the Nationals limp into Petco Park trying to end a six-game losing streak in this finale, having let San Diego score four runs in the eighth to steal Tuesday's game. Walker Buehler continues his reclamation tour after bouncing between Boston and Philadelphia last year — his time in San Diego has "rehabilitated his career a bit", and he's been sharp lately, having allowed just one earned run on three hits over five innings against the Yankees in his last outing. His pNERD of 4.72 is middling but solidly above replacement-level theater. Opposite him, rookie lefty Jackson Kent is walking a tightrope: he's 1-3 with a 5.55 ERA across five starts since his August 12 debut, with 21 strikeouts and 19 walks — that command issue tanks his pNERD to 2.87. Team-wise, this is the real draw: San Diego's 9.64 tNERD is buoyed by a strong bullpen and above-average broadcast ratings, while Washington's 8.48 mark leans on youth and baserunning. Combined gNERD of 12.86 sits comfortably above the day's average — worth a look if you like playoff races with shaky rookie pitching thrown in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Washington Nationals

San Diego Padres

Jackson Kent, Washington Nationals

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

Go back to top of page

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

The Dodgers roll out their best against a fading Reds club still clinging to faint wild-card hopes, and the pitching mismatch alone makes this worth a look. Los Angeles enters on a hot streak — the Dodgers have been playing their best baseball of the second half, winners of six straight and holding firm atop the NL West with an 88-57 record — while Cincinnati sits at 69-76, needing wins to keep any postseason hopes alive in September. Yamamoto is the headliner here, sporting a stellar 79 xFIP- and 8.29 pNERD (today's field averages just 4.76), backed by plus velocity and strikeout stuff; rookie Lowder, by contrast, is scuffling with a below-average xFIP- and a modest 3.74 pNERD, and carries a 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP into this one. On the offensive side, the Dodgers' 7.85 tNERD (elite batting runs, strong bullpen) dwarfs Cincinnati's 5.11, though Elly De La Cruz's speed (88 runs, 25 steals) gives the Reds some chaos potential on the bases. At 12.50, this gNERD sits comfortably above the historical median and near today's average — solid, if unspectacular, watchability driven almost entirely by Yamamoto's arm and the Dodgers' late-season surge.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Good sample of storylines. Let me write the summary now.

A pennant-race sleeper: the surging White Sox host a scrappy Pirates club, with just enough pitching intrigue to make it worth a glance. Chicago's stunning turnaround from three straight 100-loss seasons into an AL Central lead is the real headline here, and this game offers a decent, if unspectacular, viewing case, with today's 11.95 gNERD sitting a bit above the historic average of 10.81 but shy of today's own slate-topping games.

The White Sox carry the better team profile (8.41 tNERD), fueled by a young, cheap roster and solid barrel rates, though they've been quietly unlucky by -21 runs, suggesting better days could be ahead. Pittsburgh counters with excellent baserunning and a bullpen that's outperformed expectations, even if shaky fielding drags them down. On the mound, Davis Martin (4.90 pNERD) is returning from an IL stint for a right middle finger blister, activated on September 2, and is searching for his first win since mid-June. Lake Bachar (3.63 pNERD) brings solid strikeout stuff but shaky command. Both offenses have thump — Oneil Cruz's .506 xwOBA and Esmerlyn Valdez's .477 xwOBA give the Pirates real run-creation upside — so don't be shocked if this one gets loud.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago White Sox

Lake Bachar, Pittsburgh Pirates

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Two division leaders, one big lineup showdown, and a Jax outing worth catching even if you skip the rest. Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both fighting for playoff seeding as September winds down, and while the pitching matchup is lopsided on paper, there's enough thump in both lineups to keep things lively.

Griffin Jax is the headliner here, sporting an 8.16 pNERD built on a sharp xFIP- and well above-average swinging-strike rate. He's performed at a high level recently, allowing one earned run or less in three of his last four starts. The opposing arm was unlisted at file time, though reports point to Reynaldo López working back into Atlanta's rotation - Atlanta is getting a key piece back at exactly the right moment - but without stats to go on, that half of the mound is a mystery box.

Offensively, Junior Caminero's been Tampa's engine while Matt Olson anchors Atlanta's power, and Truist Park's slight hitter-friendly tilt won't hurt either side. At 11.76, the gNERD sits a touch above the historical middle and roughly in line with today's average slate - solid, not spectacular, but Jax alone makes it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Tampa Bay Rays

Atlanta Braves

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

Go back to top of page

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez is the headliner here, and his opponent's own numbers say so: expect a lopsided but oddly entertaining pitching mismatch in Philadelphia. Sánchez enters as the game's high point, an All-Star who started the 2026 Midsummer Classic for the NL and carries a 16-5 record with a 2.58 ERA into the start; more importantly for our purposes, his xFIP- of 61 and standout swinging-strike rate power a 10.19 pNERD, easily the best pitching mark on either roster today and well above the 95th-percentile threshold historically. Hunter Brown is a capable complement (4.65 pNERD, a mid-90s fastball helping offset a middling strike rate), but this is Sánchez's stage, even though Houston has actually enjoyed modest success against him, hitting .297 with 11 hits in 37 at-bats, and he strikes out Astros hitters at a rate well below his career norm. On the team side, neither club dazzles — Houston's tNERD is thin thanks to shaky baserunning and fielding, while Philadelphia's boost comes more from bullpen depth and broadcast appeal than its middling offense, whose batting runs are actually well below average. Add in that this is just the second meeting between these teams this season, with Houston having opened the series with a 6-5 win at Citizens Bank Park, and you get a game whose 11.41 gNERD sits a shade above the historical average — worth a look mainly for Sánchez, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Houston Astros

Philadelphia Phillies

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Baltimore's rotation is running on fumes and Cleveland is peaking, which makes this series finale more compelling than the box score would suggest. The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight, sit fifth in the AL East, and are trying to stay afloat in the wild-card race, while Cleveland has won seven of its last eight games on the road, pushing them to a 74-72 record. Foster Griffin, Cleveland's lefty, has been legitimately excellent: he's making his 29th start of the season, sporting a 15-4 record with a 3.26 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 160 1/3 innings. His 5.61 pNERD is well above average for today's slate, built on strong contact management. Shane Baz brings mid-90s velocity but a slower pace that dings his NERD a bit, and he enters at 5-15 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and 145 strikeouts across 163.1 innings in 28 starts. Cleveland's tNERD edges Baltimore's thanks to bullpen strength and a younger roster, though both offenses are middling. Camden Yards' quirks and a genuine form gap between the two clubs make this a decent, not spectacular, watch — roughly average on today's slate, comfortably above the historic median.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Baltimore Orioles

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Go back to top of page

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

A rebuilding Marlins club with a young, cheap roster hosts a fading Mets team, and neither starter is going to make anyone forget prime Doc Gooden. Miami's tNERD of 9.21 stands out mostly because of good luck (they're outperforming their skill-based numbers, so some regression may be coming), a low payroll, and a young roster, while the Mets' tNERD of 5.65 is buoyed more by a strong bullpen and broadcast ratings than by actual hitting, which has been a genuine weakness. On the mound, it's a battle of the underwhelming: Stock's numbers are genuinely ugly — a 1.75 WHIP and 13 walks in just 26.1 innings, though his xFIP- suggests some bad luck is baked into that ugly line. Junk, meanwhile, has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five outings, but his NERD score is dragged down by a weak swinging-strike rate. New York enters having won the first two games of this series and won the first two games by scores of 9-4 and 7-5, so there's some series-finale drama, but at 10.47 this gNERD sits almost exactly at the historical median — competent, unremarkable, background-noise baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Robert Stock, New York Mets

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Go back to top of page

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

Both teams are miles out of contention, but there's just enough texture here to make a getaway-day matinee tolerable background noise. The Giants have won the first two games of this series and are one win from a home sweep, with San Francisco having taken the first two games and being one win from its first home series sweep of the season, while both clubs are buried in fourth place in their respective divisions. Andre Pallante, who was placed on the injured list on August 21 with right elbow inflammation which caused him to miss two weeks before returning on September 4, gets his second start back and brings the game's best pNERD number thanks to plus velocity and a knack for weak contact, though his lackluster swinging-strike rate keeps him earthbound. Tidwell, a 25-year-old rookie, is still searching for his first quality start, and his fastball has been getting hit hard all year. With Giants' bullpen and baserunning both dragging down their tNERD and Cardinals' bullpen shaky too, this game's 8.61 gNERD sits below the historical average and near the bottom of today's slate — background viewing rather than appointment television.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

St. Louis Cardinals

San Francisco Giants

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

A meaningless-standings game with one legit reason to tune in: Jake Bennett. The Red Sox are clinging to a playoff push while the Angels have already been eliminated—officially, the first AL team to be knocked out this season, extending a playoff drought that stretches to 12 years, so this is pure spoiler-ball from Anaheim's side. Boston, at 80-66 and fighting for position, has gone 6-4 over their last ten, though a narrow division margin means every game still matters to them.

The pitching matchup is lopsided. Bennett (pNERD 7.41, well above today's 4.76 average) has been arguably one of the better fringe stories on the mound this year, backing a stellar 90 xFIP- with a plus strike percentage and youth on his side. Ryan Johnson, by contrast, brings a middling 2.16 pNERD with a rough xFIP- and shaky command, numbers that match his season line of a 5.17 ERA and more walks than you'd like. Add in Boston's 6.58 tNERD—boosted by a strong bullpen and some positive regression coming their way on the luck front—against the Angels' league-worst 0.91 tNERD, and you get a lopsided 8.53 gNERD, comfortably below the day's 10.41 average. Watch for Bennett's arm, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Los Angeles Angels

Boston Red Sox

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Not exactly a marquee matchup, but there's a decent subplot here: Zac Gallen is being activated off the 60-day injured list to make this start, and the Diamondbacks are pairing him with a piggybacking Michael Soroka (also just activated) to manage his workload. That's the kind of "watch the return" intrigue that can make an otherwise middling game worth a look, even though Gallen's rusty numbers (a 6.34 ERA before the IL stint) and his -1.47 xFIP- component drag his pNERD down to 3.00. Kansas City counters with Daniel Lynch IV, who's quietly been a stabilizer for a fading Royals club, and his absurdly quick 16.6-second pace (worth a full point in his pNERD) at least keeps things moving. The Diamondbacks arrive red-hot, having won four straight and pushing for a wild-card spot, while Kansas City has dropped seven of nine and is buried in last in the AL Central. At 8.43, the gNERD sits below both the historical and today's averages, so temper expectations, but Gallen's first outing back is worth a peek if you're near a TV anyway.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Kansas City Royals

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics, 12:05p

Summary

A bottom-feeder home game with modest juice — watch if you like scrappy pitching staffs more than star power, skip if you need offense with real punch. The Blue Jays (73-73) are scrapping for a playoff spot against an Athletics club that's settled into a 58-88 also-ran season, and as one preview bluntly put it, "the Blue Jays are in must-win mode if they're serious about making the playoffs, and games against a bottom feeder such as the A's are a gift." Toronto's tNERD (3.47) edges Oakland's (2.84), with the Jays' fielding a plus while barrel rate and baserunning drag both sides down — this isn't a barrage-of-homers lineup matchup. On the mound, Braydon Fisher has been stretched into a starter's role but doesn't have a quality start yet this season and hasn't lasted five innings in any of his eight starts, though he's riding a nine-game scoreless streak. Brady Basso, making his first career game against the Toronto Blue Jays, has an ugly ERA but a tidier xFIP-, suggesting he's been unlucky rather than bad. Overall gNERD of 8.12 sits below the historical and today's averages — a fine background game, not a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Athletics

Braydon Fisher, Toronto Blue Jays

Brady Basso, Athletics

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Both Central Division also-rans meet in a series finale that neither club has much to prove in, but the pitching matchup has just enough recent intrigue to make it worth a glance. Zebby Matthews carries the higher pNERD here, and rightly so—he's maintained a 2.42 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP over his last four starts, with a 6.7 K/BB ratio in that span, though he's a homer risk who is coming off a loss to the White Sox that allowed four runs over five innings, all on three home runs. Keider Montero, on the other hand, just had his worst outing of the year, as Detroit built a 6-1 lead in his last start only for him to squander it in a season-worst performance, conceding six earned runs in four innings thanks largely to a grand slam. Neither team's tNERD stands out—both hover in below-average territory thanks to shaky bullpens, fielding, and baserunning on both sides. The gNERD of 8.04 sits below the historic average and near the bottom of today's slate, so this is a game to have on in the background rather than must-see viewing, unless you enjoy watching two sub-.500 Central clubs play out the string.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

This one's mostly about watching the Yankees roll, with Colorado playing out the string on a lost season. New York enters having already clinched their 34th straight winning season, and while Aaron Judge is back from the injured list, it's Will Warren who's the more interesting arm here — his 4.85 pNERD (well above average for today's slate) reflects a strong xFIP- of 93 and solid strikeout stuff, a nice follow-up to a Yankees rotation that just watched Cam Schlittler strike out ten over seven innings in a series-opening win. Tomoyuki Sugano, on the other hand, drags this game down: his pNERD sits at just 0.63, reflecting a below-average whiff rate and a plodding pace on the mound, consistent with his season line of a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP entering the start. The Yankees' 7.81 tNERD is comfortably above the day's average, fueled by top-shelf barrel rate and bullpen numbers, while Colorado's 1.26 is near the bottom of today's range, undone by poor fielding and batting runs. With a gNERD of 7.27 — below both the historical and today's averages — this is a game to catch only if you want to see Judge and the barrel-rate-loaded Yankee lineup tee off against a fading Rockies club.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Colorado Rockies

New York Yankees

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

This one's more for the box score than the highlight reel, unless you have a soft spot for shaky rotation arms trying to find themselves. Texas rolls into Seattle riding a 10-5 series-opening pounding, with Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, and Danny Jansen all going deep — and Rangers luck sits absurdly high at +2.00, suggesting some serious positive regression could actually be coming for a team that's outperforming its underlying numbers already. Seattle's tNERD of 2.14 reflects a roster dragged down hard by dreadful fielding (-1.81) and baserunning, offsetting a bit of extra intrigue from a young, cost-controlled roster. On the mound, Cody Bradford (1.27 pNERD) is 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA over six starts, doesn't miss bats, but walks almost nobody. Rookie Kade Anderson, making just his fourth big-league start after a hyped debut, is still searching for it too — 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA, having struck out 11 and walked seven across three starts. Neither arm inspires much confidence, and with a gNERD of 7.16 — well below today's 10.41 average — this is a skippable afternoon unless you're just here to watch Cal Raleigh do damage.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on September 8, 2026