MLB: What to watch on September 10, 2026

• 10 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

This one's got a genuine debut storyline: a division race, a hot road team, and a rookie fireballer getting his first career start after a dominant relief stint. The gNERD of 15.42 sits well above both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate (10.95), driven mostly by a strong pitching matchup and two above-average offenses.

Jared Jones brings real stuff to the mound — 98.4 mph average velocity and a hefty whiff rate translate into a 10.33 pNERD, comfortably above today's average of 5.97, even though his surface-level ERA sits at 4.46. He's taking the mound for his 18th start with a 4.46 ERA over 78 2/3 innings, and most recently threw six scoreless innings against the Angels. Across the mound, Hagen Smith makes his first career start after debuting on August 9 and pitching excellently in short bursts, owning a 0.56 ERA with 23 strikeouts across 16 innings in relief appearances. No pNERD data exists yet for a starter role, but the bullpen numbers are eye-popping. Both lineups carry decent pop — White Sox tNERD of 8.36 edges Pittsburgh's 7.15 — and Pittsburgh has already taken both games of this series, including a 9-3 opener. Worth tuning in for the young arm alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago White Sox

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Hagen Smith, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

A 38-year-old Jacob deGrom, still throwing 97, headlines a game that's genuinely worth carving out time for, even if the Mariners' anemic offense makes it a low-scoring affair on paper. DeGrom sits at a 11.01 pNERD — among the best you'll see today — thanks to elite strikeout stuff and a sparkling xFIP-, and his surface-level numbers (3.96 ERA) are actually underselling him. The underlying numbers suggest that deGrom's struggles are mostly just unluckiness, with a sterling 2.69 FIP lately, which lines up with the positive Luck component in his profile pointing toward better days ahead. Gilbert is no slouch either (7.74 pNERD, mid-90s heat), though he's been homer-prone lately — an unusually high 4.68 ERA and matching 4.69 FIP over his last 10 starts, with a 10.6% opponent barrel rate. Seattle's offense is the drag here, ranking near the bottom of the league in scoring, which explains their sub-2 tNERD. Texas brings more thump and a well-above-expectations Luck bump. With a 13.27 gNERD comfortably above the day's 10.95 average, this is a pitching-forward watch, not a slugfest — tune in for deGrom's stuff, not the scoreboard.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:05a

Summary

Zack Wheeler is doing Zack Wheeler things, and that alone makes this worth a look even if the rest of the game is a mismatch. Wheeler carries the second-highest pNERD in today's slate, and it shows: he's coming off consecutive quality starts, having gone six innings against Atlanta and surrendered just one earned run on three hits, and his xFIP- of 75 suggests his shiny ERA isn't smoke and mirrors. On the other side, Cristian Javier brings a pNERD near replacement level after a season slowed by a shoulder issue; he's shown flashes—his last outing was solid—but the peripherals (rough strikeout rate, ugly road splits) keep his component scores in the red. Team-wise, Philadelphia's tNERD edges Houston's, though neither roster is lighting up the league; the Phillies' patchwork bullpen and light offense are offset by strong baserunning and bullpen composite, while Houston's excellent barrel rate is undercut by poor baserunning and fielding marks. The overall gNERD of 9.59 sits below the historic median and below today's average, so treat this as a solid Wheeler outing wrapped in an otherwise middling package rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Houston Astros

Philadelphia Phillies

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, 9:15a

Summary

Both teams enter this getaway-day matinee locked into playoff spots but far from must-win drama, and the on-paper NERD numbers say to keep expectations modest. Atlanta comes in having dropped three straight and has been outscored 14-3 by Tampa Bay through the first two games of this series, while the Rays are riding a 6-4 stretch and have already banked series wins on Junior Caminero's power surge. Nick Martinez has quietly been a top-15 pitcher this year at 14-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 95 strikeouts, and he's 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in his career against Atlanta, though his modest pNERD reflects unspectacular strikeout stuff rather than dominant peripherals. Martín Pérez, by contrast, is coming off a rough outing where he tossed 3 2/3 innings, allowing four earned runs while giving up seven hits against the Phillies, and his diminished velocity caps his upside here. Atlanta's rotation depth is also thinning, with Robert Suárez and Joe Jiménez injured and Spencer Strider's 2026 return in doubt. With a gNERD of 8.32 sitting below both the historical and today's averages, this is a game for standings-watchers more than highlight-seekers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Tampa Bay Rays

Atlanta Braves

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

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Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

This one's a mismatch on paper, and the numbers back it up: the Yankees are heavily favored, the Rockies are reeling, and only Max Fried's return from injury gives this game any pulse. Colorado's tNERD sits at a miserable 1.32, dragged down by weak batting runs and a barrel rate that ranks near the bottom of the league, while New York's 7.90 is buoyed by strong power numbers and a deep bullpen — the widest team gap you'll find on the slate. The Rockies arrive at 55-90, having lost their last two in this series 5-3 and 6-1, and looking to rebound from a 6-1 loss last time out that included George Lombard Jr.'s first career grand slam. Fried, back from the injured list, has been sharp: dominant in his last five starts, allowing just four runs while striking out 26 batters in that span, and his 4.30 pNERD reflects strong underlying command, though his plodding pace knocks some shine off. Feltner, by contrast, has been a mess all year — a 5.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 19 home runs allowed in 106.2 innings — and his 2.81 pNERD is among the lowest you'll see today. With an 8.16 gNERD, this lands below both the historical and today's averages; save your remote for something else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Colorado Rockies

New York Yankees

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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