MLB: What to watch on September 11, 2026

• 11 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

This one's near the top of the board today, thanks largely to a Cubs offense and defense that's humming and a pitching mismatch that's more interesting than it looks on paper. Chicago's Shota Imanaga takes a full week of rest into this one and has flat-out owned Pittsburgh this year — he has dominated the Pirates twice this season with a combined 12 scoreless innings, 13 strikeouts, two walks, and just four hits. His whiff rate and contact-suppression numbers back it up, giving him a solid pNERD score even if his home-run rate has been a season-long headache. Opposite him: Wilber Dotel, who is making his first big-league start in place of injured All-Star Braxton Ashcraft, after pitching out of the bullpen all season — an unknown-stats zero on the pNERD ledger, essentially a bullpen game for Pittsburgh. The Cubs' tNERD is elite, powered by top-shelf batting and fielding runs, offset only by a shaky bullpen; Pittsburgh counters with strong baserunning but leaky defense. Combined, this gNERD checks in comfortably above the historical average and leads the day's slate — worth tuning in, especially to see if Dotel can hang with a rested Imanaga.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Wilber Dotel, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

A near-average matchup on paper turns intriguing once you clock who's actually walking to the mound. The gNERD of 13.37 sits comfortably above the historic median (10.81) and today's average (10.68), driven almost entirely by the Marlins' surprisingly frisky tNERD of 9.11 — powered by strong baserunning, a young, cheap roster, and some positive regression coming their way after a bit of bad luck.

The pitching probables listed here mark Ryan Gusto's opponent as TBD, but the confirmed pitching matchup features Dodgers lefty Blake Snell and Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, a contrast between Snell's high-strikeout profile and Gusto's command-and-mix approach, and Snell's excellent form (an elite strikeout arm) should make this more watchable than the data-blank pNERD suggests. Gusto himself grades out fine (4.51 pNERD) thanks to strong strike-throwing, though he has shown enough vulnerability — nine home runs allowed in 72.1 innings — to invite concern.

The story on the field: the Dodgers enter at 89-57 and lead the National League West, having won seven straight and outscored opponents by 21 runs over their last 10, including a 14-1 rout of Cincinnati, while Miami has dropped three straight and gone 3-7 over its last ten, though the Marlins are not without weapons at home, where they own a 43-32 record. Worth tuning in if you like watching a hot team try to keep rolling against a scrappy, undermanned host.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

Go back to top of page

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

Cleveland's Parker Messick against Minnesota's Taj Bradley is the kind of pitching matchup that makes a September game worth clearing your schedule for. Messick has quietly become one of the AL's best arms, an All-Star this year who struck out a career-high 12 batters over six innings in his last start, and he's been almost unfair lately, allowing one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. His 8.49 pNERD is well above today's average, built on strong xFIP-, a quick pace on the mound, and his youth. Bradley isn't far behind at 7.32, pairing plus velocity with a respectable strikeout rate, though he's allowing four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts — some rust to shake off. The gNERD of 12.90 sits comfortably above the historic median and today's average, driven almost entirely by pitching. Cleveland's tNERD (6.73) outpaces Minnesota's (3.26), reflecting Cleveland's younger roster, sturdier bullpen, and better baserunning, while the Twins limp in having lost five of the team's last seven games. Not a marquee offensive show, but a legitimate pitchers' duel with playoff stakes attached for Cleveland.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Go back to top of page

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Big NL East stakes, a Cy Young-caliber ace, and a resurgent Nola make this one worth clearing your schedule for. Atlanta clings to a four-game division lead over Philadelphia, and this is the final three times these teams will meet this season after splitting four fiercely contested games in Philadelphia last week. Sale has owned this matchup all year — he's 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 19 innings against the Phils, including limiting them to two runs over six innings in a 5-2 win last Friday — and his 9.93 pNERD (driven by a sparkling 67 xFIP-) is one of the best you'll see on a given day, comfortably above the 95th percentile historically. Nola isn't just cannon fodder either: he has a 2.31 ERA over his past eight outings, seemingly turning things around after more than a year of struggles, and his 5.74 pNERD reflects real quality beneath a rough overall line. Both offenses are middling and both teams carry sizable negative "luck" scores, meaning they've actually underperformed their run-scoring peripherals — so don't be shocked if bats show up despite the ace-heavy billing. At 12.79, this gNERD sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, and the playoff stakes only sweeten the deal.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Go back to top of page

New York Mets @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Rivals meet under an emotional backdrop, with a rookie ace on the mound who's quietly having a special season — this one's worth your attention. The Yankees and Mets kick off their season-ending Subway Series set at Yankee Stadium on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, with MLB tributes planned before a game that carries a backdrop that transcends baseball. Both clubs arrive hot — the Mets have gone 7-3 over their last ten, riding a four-game winning streak into the Bronx — though the standings tell different stories, with the Yankees fighting for the AL East and the Mets mostly playing spoiler. The pitching matchup favors New York's other team: Nolan McLean, the 24-year-old righty, has been outstanding, posting a 3.06 ERA, 3.57 FIP over 161.2 innings, and enters after limiting the Giants to two earned runs over six innings in his last outing. His pNERD of 7.52 is comfortably above average, boosted by plus xFIP-, velocity, and youth. Carlos Rodón is solid but unspectacular by comparison (pNERD 3.20), with average stuff metrics and a below-average strike rate dragging him down. The Yankees' offense (tNERD 8.05) is the headliner on the position-player side, with elite barrel rate and strong baserunning. Combined, a gNERD of 12.28 sits comfortably above the historic average and roughly in the upper third of today's slate — add the occasion, and this is one to circle.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

New York Yankees

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

A middling gNERD score masks a decent little September set piece between two fading fringe-contenders trying to avoid embarrassing collapses. Chicago holds first in the AL Central but has been staggering lately — the White Sox have dropped seven of their last ten — while St. Louis is essentially playing out the string, mathematically alive but practically running out of runway in the National League Central wild card picture. Both lineups have juice worth watching: Munetaka Murakami's 31 home runs give the lineup a genuine middle-of-the-order threat, and on the other side Jordan Walker has been one of the more complete players in the NL this season: 28 home runs, 157 hits, and 19 stolen bases, with Alec Burleson ranking second in MLB in RBIs. On the mound, Liberatore is the clear draw, sporting a strong xFIP- and a career-best strikeout year — a career-high 23.7% strikeout rate this season, 28.2% since June 30 — and his positive luck score suggests he may be about to look even better than his already solid line. Kay, by contrast, is scuffling with below-average whiffs and command. The White Sox's youthful, cheap roster construction (both teams score well there) gives this game a bit more juice than the raw gNERD number alone suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

St. Louis Cardinals

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Go back to top of page

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:45p

Summary

Milwaukee's charging toward the division while Cincinnati is just running out the clock, but this rematch has some déjà vu built in. The Brewers enter with an NL Central lead ballooned to double digits after sweeping the Cubs, and they're facing Andrew Abbott and Dustin May for the second time in less than a week.

Milwaukee's tNERD of 9.69 is well above both the historic and today's-slate averages, fueled by strong batting runs, baserunning, and a bullpen that's been quietly excellent all year. Cincinnati's 4.95 is comparatively pedestrian, dragged down by shaky bullpen work and negative batting runs, though a positive luck figure suggests the Reds' offense has actually been a bit better than its results. On the mound, May's 6.02 pNERD stands out thanks to plus velocity and strong peripherals, but his actual results have been ugly since arriving in Milwaukee — he's been shelled for 14 earned runs in just 19.2 innings since coming over from St. Louis. Fittingly, he last pitched on September 5 against these same Reds, allowing two runs over 3.2 innings. Abbott's 2.41 pNERD reflects a rougher season overall, and he's walked nine across his last five starts. With a gNERD of 11.53, slightly above average, this is watchable mostly for Milwaukee's engine and the pitching rematch intrigue, not a marquee arms race.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Two last-place teams playing out the string, but the pitching matchup has real quality if you squint past the standings. Cade Cavalli is the whole reason to tune in — the Nationals right-hander has been the one dependable arm on their staff all year, and he's been especially sharp lately: over his last six starts he has allowed seven earned runs in 36 innings, backing up an xFIP- of 75 that's well ahead of most starters you'll see today. His fastball is up near 97, and his pNERD of 7.96 reflects legitimate strikeout stuff, though his molasses-slow pace knocks a bit off the total appeal. Kikuchi is a mixed bag by comparison — a season ERA that "looks nothing like his last two outings" and average-ish peripherals, though a fat luck bump keeps his pNERD respectable at 5.69. Washington's offense actually supports the case too, with strong barrel rates and baserunning peeking through poor overall record, while the Angels' brutal fielding, baserunning, and batting marks drag their tNERD to a near-bottom 0.83. The 11.38 gNERD lands almost exactly at today's average — worth a look for the Cavalli start, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Los Angeles Angels

Washington Nationals

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

Go back to top of page

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Both teams are scrapping for playoff lives, but the pitching matchup here is the definition of replacement level, so temper expectations. Texas Rangers (72-75) at Arizona Diamondbacks (78-69), with Kumar Rocker and Merrill Kelly on the mound — Rocker carrying a 4.61 ERA and Kelly a bloated 5.06 — neither of whom shows up in our data with an actual pNERD score, so treat the pitching half of this preview as a shrug emoji. The stakes are real: Arizona is trailing the San Diego Padres by just half a game in a tight Wild Card race with a 57% chance to secure a berth, while Texas is fighting from three back in the AL West. Offensively, Gabriel Moreno leads Arizona across the board while Nolan Arenado and Ketel Marte provide pop, with Corbin Carroll adding speed, which lines up with the Diamondbacks' strong baserunning and fielding NERD components. Texas counters with better raw batting production but is riding a huge luck spike (their run differential says they've been better than their results), suggesting positive regression is coming. The 10.67 gNERD sits almost exactly at today's average, and with no pitcher data to lean on, this one's more about playoff stakes than must-watch pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Go back to top of page

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Good stuff, well-supplied with details. Now let me write the summary.

Rasmussen's a good watch; Ullola is a total mystery act, and that unpredictability is the whole appeal here. Tampa Bay's ace comes into the game 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA, and the numbers back up the eye test — his pNERD of 8.29 is driven by a stingy xFIP- and a fastball/cutter/changeup mix that generates weak contact, with his changeup as "the separator — 35.1% whiff rate and just .193 xwOBA against." On the other side, Houston is throwing rookie reliever Miguel Ullola as an opener in his sixth appearance and first career start Friday, appearing as an opener in a bullpen game — small sample, zero pNERD data, and total boom-or-bust; how long Ullola lasts is the biggest variable, and if he's finished after two, Tampa Bay's lineup gets extra looks at Houston's less trusted relievers. Team-wise, Tampa Bay's tNERD (5.11) beats Houston's (2.92), fitting their first place standing in the AL East against an Astros club still atop a weaker AL West. Today's gNERD of 10.66 sits almost exactly at the daily average — solid, unspectacular, worth a look mainly for Rasmussen and the Ullola experiment.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays

Miguel Ullola, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

Padres are still in the thick of a wild card race while the Giants are already playing out the string, which sets up an oddly lopsided but not entirely meaningless divisional finale. This one leans heavily on San Diego doing what good playoff teams do to bad ones — the numbers and the vibes both point that way. The Padres arrive with the majority of the watchability here: a 9.81 tNERD built on excellent bullpen work and above-average fielding, while the Giants check in at a middling 3.95, dragged down by shaky baserunning and a bullpen that's been below average. San Francisco's been officially eliminated from playoff contention for a fifth straight year, and their offense has been especially punchless against lefties this month, which is bad news against Robbie Ray tonight. Ray himself is a wrinkle — his surface numbers (11-8, 3.39 ERA) look solid, but his pNERD sits at a low 0.80, with a poor strike percentage and slow pace working against him. Anthony Molina, on the other side, is a near-total mystery statistically (pNERD of 0.00, no meaningful data), though he's been sharp in limited starts. Both teams enter on winning streaks, which adds a bit of juice, but overall this gNERD of 9.78 sits a shade below today's average, making it a watchable-but-skippable outing unless you're a Padres fan sweating the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

Anthony Molina, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Not much drama in the standings here, but a genuinely excellent Sonny Gray outing might be worth ten minutes of your evening. The Red Sox are chasing a Wild Card spot and hosting a Royals team that's spent September playing out the string, with Kansas City sitting 3-7 in its last 10 and mired in last place in the AL Central. Gray, meanwhile, has been outstanding: he's held opponents scoreless in three of his last six starts, including seven innings of three-hit ball last Saturday against the Orioles, and his sparkling 87 xFIP- backs it up, giving him the better pNERD of the two starters. Lugo counters with a much shakier profile — his SwStr% and velocity are both well below average, and only a slow pace (which NERD loves) and some positive regression luck keep his score respectable. Boston's tNERD gets a boost from a bullpen that ranks near the top of the league, while Kansas City's relief corps drags its team score down significantly, evidenced by a bullpen components that's deeply negative. Both teams are also running suspiciously good team luck, so don't be shocked if either offense cools off. Overall, a modestly-above-average watch, buoyed mostly by Gray's excellence rather than any real competitive tension.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Kansas City Royals

Boston Red Sox

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Kirby's got the electric stuff and Springs is walking a tightrope over a tarp fire, so this one's really about how long the Mariners' bats need to wake up. Both teams are non-contenders playing out the string — Seattle's 69-78 and clinging to fading wild-card math, while Oakland (59-88) is deep into spoiler mode — but the pitching matchup gives it more juice than the standings suggest. Seattle gets Jeffrey Springs again, six days after he shut them out for seven innings, though a repeat seems unlikely. That's because Springs' overall profile is rough: a 4-13 record with a 6.02 ERA and an xFIP- comfortably worse than average, backing up his modest 2.14 pNERD. Kirby is the headliner here, riding mid-96 velocity and elite strike-throwing to a 7.50 pNERD, well above today's average. Neither offense is doing much — both clubs are buried in team NERD thanks to ugly fielding and baserunning marks — but Kirby's start alone nudges this game to a respectable 7.16 gNERD, right around today's middle of the pack, worth a look mainly for his arm rather than anything else on the field.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Athletics

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Two of baseball's worst teams meet for a game whose main appeal is a genuinely intriguing rookie-versus-veteran pitching contrast — everything else here is pretty forgettable. The Rockies, mired in last place in the NL West and fresh off a sweep in New York, send out rookie right-hander Mason Adams, who debuted on August 25 and has made three starts covering 13 2/3 innings, with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP and 17 strikeouts, with a strikeout rate loud at 11.2 per nine, though he walks 4.0 per nine and has never finished a fifth inning in the majors. No sample size means no pNERD score yet, but the swing-and-miss stuff is worth a glance. Opposite him, Framber Valdez brings real pedigree and a tidy recent form line — he's held the opposition scoreless in three starts this season, most recently against Cleveland, allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out three — and has historically owned Colorado, winning all four of his career starts against the Rockies with a 1.40 ERA. His modest pNERD reflects unspectacular whiff and command marks rather than results. Team-wise, both clubs are middling-to-bad on offense and D, capping the gNERD at a below-average 6.25 — watchable mainly for Adams' emergence, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Colorado Rockies

Detroit Tigers

Mason Adams, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

Go back to top of page

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Both Baltimore and Toronto are playing out the string of lost seasons, and this one leans on nostalgia more than nerd-stat sizzle. Max Scherzer, now 41 and closing in on the end of a Hall of Fame career, takes the mound sporting a rough 2-7 record this season, along with a 6.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, having recorded 48 strikeouts while allowing 58 hits across 62.2 innings. His pNERD of 0.92 confirms the eye test — his xFIP- is well below average, though a positive luck component suggests his results have actually been a bit worse than his peripherals, so some correction toward respectability wouldn't be shocking. Chris Bassitt isn't faring much better, coming off a start against Boston where he surrendered three earned runs over 5.2 innings, giving up five hits with four walks, while striking out six batters, and his 1.53 pNERD reflects modest, unspectacular stuff at age 37. Team-wise, Baltimore's 5.68 tNERD gets a boost from bullpen strength and barrel rate, while Toronto's 3.44 mark is dragged down by a genuinely ugly team barrel rate. With a gNERD of 5.78 sitting below both today's average (10.68) and the historical average (10.81), this is a game for completionists and Scherzer sentimentalists only.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on September 10, 2026