MLB: What to watch on September 12, 2026

• 12 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Paul Skenes still owns the game's watchability, even though his season line hasn't matched his Cy Young-caliber ceiling, and this Cubs-Pirates rubber match carries real playoff stakes for Chicago. This is the highest gNERD score on the board today (16.09 against a 7.44–16.09 range), driven mostly by an excellent Cubs team and a dominant arm. Skenes brings a 9.80 pNERD - elite by any measure, powered by plus velocity, a hefty swinging-strike rate, and youth on his side - though he's been homer prone. He's struggled in two starts versus the Cubs this season, going 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA, and is 2-4 with a 3.45 ERA in nine career appearances against Chicago, so there's a real revenge-game angle here. Clay Holmes (4.99 pNERD) is comparatively pedestrian but serviceable, and he's been Chicago's steadiest arm all September. The Cubs' 10.36 tNERD is elite - built on standout batting and fielding runs - while Pittsburgh's roster is dealing with injuries to Braxton Ashcraft, Mitch Keller, Endy Rodríguez, Kirby Yates, and now outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Add in Alex Bregman's two-run homer and near-cycle in Friday's 12-2 win, his 25th of the season, and you've got a marquee arm facing a hot lineup with something to prove on both sides.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

A dominant Dodgers ace against a fading Marlins club still makes for a solid watch, mostly thanks to Tyler Glasnow's clean stuff. Glasnow is 4-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in his return from the injured list, and this is his fourth start since returning from the injured list—he's been especially sharp against Miami specifically, 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career starts at loanDepot park. His pNERD of 8.83 is well above average, built on elite xFIP- and above-average velocity and whiff rates. Phillips, by contrast, is a league-average arm who started the season in the bullpen but since joining the rotation has a 4.23 ERA and 4.91 xERA in 17 starts—his 4.95 pNERD reflects that mediocrity, though his underlying stuff isn't bad. The Dodgers arrive at 90-57 and lead the National League West, while Miami has lost four in a row. Miami's tNERD (9.00) actually edges LA's (7.90), fueled by a young, cheap roster outperforming its underlying batted-ball data—positive regression could be coming. Combined 15.34 gNERD sits near the top of today's slate, and comfortably above the historical average, making this an easy recommend if you like watching a real ace work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

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New York Mets @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

Subway Series drama with a lopsided pitching résumé — Cole’s stuff against a Mets club still mathematically clinging to October, though barely. Worth a look for the rivalry and Juan Soto's return to the Bronx alone, even if the on-paper mismatch is real.

The Yankees own the better team NERD here (8.13 vs. 5.71), riding an excellent barrel rate and solid all-around performance in front of home fans on a six-game winning streak. The Mets counter with better bullpen work and barrel rate of their own, but overall are the weaker side, and their four-game winning streak sounds like momentum until you look at how thin the lineup gets outside the top of the order. Soto has been terrific in the middle at .274 with 24 homers and a .918 OPS since returning from the injured list in late August, giving the Mets at least one reason to tune in.

On the mound, Cole is the story: at 35 he's still humming, sitting near 97 mph with elite strike-throwing, and his 7.26 pNERD ranks well above today's average. That said, his recent form is softer — he has allowed 11 earned runs over his last four starts, a span of 24.1 innings, with only 21 strikeouts, and oddly he has never solved this opponent, owning a 6.99 ERA against the Mets across nine career starts. Opposite him, rookie Zac Thornton has no NERD data available, and is coming off a rough outing where he gave up six earned runs on seven hits, including four home runs, across five innings in a loss to the Giants. The 13.05 gNERD sits comfortably above the historical median and roughly in line with today's average, making this a moderately watchable game elevated mainly by the rivalry and Cole's track record rather than raw upside on both sides.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

New York Yankees

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

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Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15p

Summary

A tepid matchup between two teams playing out the string, though the gNERD score of 12.78 sits comfortably above average and there's just enough spice to make it watchable. Both clubs are far from contention — the White Sox at 75-71 have dropped nine of their last twelve, while the Cardinals (73-75) just snapped a three-game skid behind rookies Joshua Baez and Leo Bernal, who each finished with three hits and two RBIs in a 7-3 win Friday. Jordan Walker keeps the Cardinals lineup interesting, while Munetaka Murakami's power bat gives Chicago a puncher's chance in any at-bat. On the mound, Kyle Leahy is the more intriguing arm, his 87 xFIP- driving a solid 5.65 pNERD, while Sean Newcomb's 5.55 pNERD comes more from a plodding pace than swing-and-miss stuff. Team-wise, Chicago's young, cost-controlled roster (8.43 tNERD) outshines St. Louis's more middling profile (5.94 tNERD), though both squads carry some bad-luck underperformance that suggests better days could be ahead. Not a marquee game, but a solid one for a lazy afternoon.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

St. Louis Cardinals

Sean Newcomb, Chicago White Sox

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Summary

Milwaukee mashes, Cincinnati flails, and the "TBD" starter turns out to be Kyle Harrison, who's been nearly untouchable at home — this one's more one-sided rout than nail-biter.

The Brewers, sitting 10 games up in the NL Central, have won nine of their last ten at home and just finished torching Cincinnati 20-0 the night before. Their offense backs it up statistically — Milwaukee's tNERD of 10.04 is elite, built on strong batting runs, baserunning, and a bullpen that's been quietly excellent all year. Cincinnati, by contrast, limps in with four straight losses and a lineup that's cratered — hitting .230 over its past 29 games with a .305 on-base percentage. That's reflected in their middling 4.61 tNERD, propped up mostly by a young, cheap roster and some positive batting luck that suggests better days ahead, eventually.

On the mound, Brady Singer brings a modest 4.31 pNERD, and the surface stats haven't been kind either — he's allowed at least three earned runs in nine consecutive starts. Kyle Harrison, meanwhile, has been dominant at American Family Field, posting a 1.26 ERA and 0.84 WHIP across 11 home starts, though we have no NERD data on him. The 11.98 gNERD sits right around today's average, so watch if you like lopsided baseball with a hot team stomping a cold one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 1:10p

Summary

A playoff-race afternoon featuring a fireballing Cleveland reclamation project against a hard-throwing Twins rookie who's quietly been one of the better arms in baseball this year. Daniel Espino's story alone makes this worth a look: the 2019 first-rounder dealt with several major shoulder injuries that derailed his climb through the minors before finally reaching the majors in June, and he's still been regularly hitting at least 99 mph with his fastball, even reaching back for 100.6 mph. We don't have reliable statistical projections for him yet (pNERD sits at zero), so his outing is pure watch-and-see. On the other side, Connor Prielipp brings real substance — a 7.80 pNERD built on a sharp xFIP-, mid-90s velocity, and youth, though his shiny 34.0 luck figure suggests his results have been running well ahead of his peripherals and some regression could be coming. Cleveland's tNERD (6.79) outpaces Minnesota's (3.03), largely thanks to Guardians' bullpen strength, youth, and modest payroll versus a Twins group that's been shaky on the bases and in the field. At 11.31, the gNERD lands almost exactly at today's average, but Espino's stuff and backstory make it more interesting than the number alone suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Daniel Espino, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

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San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

Padres vs. Giants offers a real contrast: a surging playoff contender with a bullpen for the ages against a last-place club clinging to a promising young arm's early magic. San Diego brings a five-game winning streak and the majors' best bullpen by our numbers, while Michael King has been dealing since July, going 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA over his last twelve starts. He's not overpowering by the underlying metrics — his pNERD sits below average, dragged down by middling strikeout and walk rates — but he's a reliable frontline arm in a real NL West scrap. The bigger novelty is on the other side: rookie lefty Cesar Perdomo, making just his second big-league start after firing six scoreless innings in his debut against the Mets, tries to back up a 0.90 ERA with almost no MLB track record (hence the blank pNERD — the data simply isn't there yet). San Francisco's tNERD is thin, weighed down by weak baserunning and fielding, though a bit of negative luck suggests some in-season overperformance could regress. Overall gNERD lands at 11.15, just above the historical average and squarely mid-pack among today's slate — watchable mostly for the standings stakes and Perdomo's small sample intrigue.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Michael King, San Diego Padres

Cesar Perdomo, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Two also-rans playing out the string meet in Washington, but the pitching matchup and the Nationals' late-inning theatrics make this more watchable than the standings suggest. The Nationals snapped a seven-game losing streak Friday on Jorbit Vivas' tiebreaking two-run double in the eighth, and Washington's tNERD (8.26) reflects a genuinely lively young offense — strong baserunning and barrel rates — dragged down almost entirely by a bullpen that's been a disaster (bullpen runs z-score of -2.23). The Angels, by contrast, are close to replacement-level across the board, their 0.85 tNERD a testament to bad batting, baserunning, and fielding all at once. The real draw is 22-year-old rookie Walbert Ureña, who's quietly been excellent: 9-10, posting a 2.74 ERA, 124 strikeouts across 131.1 innings, and a 1.21 WHIP, last taking the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates and surrendering one earned run over eight innings. His 98 mph heat drives a 7.50 pNERD, though his control can wobble — he once needed 3.2 innings to issue five free passes against Cleveland. Andrew Alvarez, with a tidy xFIP-, is a solid if unspectacular opposite number. Overall, a middling gNERD (10.86) that's carried more by curiosity about Ureña than by anything the standings promise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Los Angeles Angels

Washington Nationals

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Good, this gave enough. Now write the summary.

A pennant race in late September with a scrambling Phillies rotation makes this one worth a look, even if the pure NERD math is middling. The Braves hold a lead atop the NL East, and Philadelphia is scrapping to keep pace, having just dropped a marathon 11-inning series opener that ran past 11 p.m.

The Phillies lost 6-5 in 11 innings in the series opener, a game that went on until 11 p.m. because of a rain delay. Making matters worse for Philadelphia, expected starter Jesús Luzardo was scratched due to shoulder soreness, and their typical spot starter had already pitched two days prior, leaving the Phillies scrambling to find a starter — hence the TBD, which drags the pitching side of this gNERD down to zero for that half of the matchup. On the other side, Tyler Mahle brings real intrigue: he's been sharp since arriving in Atlanta at the Trade Deadline, posting a 1.24 ERA in six starts after a rough 5.13 ERA in 18 starts with the Giants, and his xFIP- of 91 backs up that a strong finish is real, not just luck. Atlanta's bullpen and barrel rate give them a modest offensive/defensive edge on paper, and with the Braves having won this season series decisively, the Phillies badly need value from wherever their bullpen game can find it. Today's gNERD sits below average, but the stakes make it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

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Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Boston's fighting for a playoff spot while Kansas City is just playing out the string, but this middle game of a Fenway series has a bit more juice than the standings gap suggests. The Royals stunned Boston 3-2 in the series opener, with rookie Carter Jensen continuing his strong debut season — Jensen had a two-hit game with an RBI, giving him 56 extra-base hits on the season, the most among AL rookies. Ranger Suarez takes the mound for Boston looking to slow a bit of a skid — he has failed to finish six innings in four of his last five turns, with just 14 strikeouts in that span, though he last pitched on September 4 at Baltimore, where he threw seven scoreless innings. His xFIP-backed pNERD of 5.31 is solidly above average for today's slate. Randy Dobnak, the sinkerballing journeyman who's quietly been steady for Kansas City, brings a lower 4.04 pNERD driven mostly by a plodding pace rather than swing-and-miss stuff. Boston's bullpen has been outstanding this year and Kansas City's has been a disaster, but both clubs are running notably positive luck scores, meaning some regression could be coming for each. Overall gNERD of 10.28 sits almost exactly at the historical median — a fine but unspectacular way to spend an afternoon.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Kansas City Royals

Boston Red Sox

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

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Seattle Mariners @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Neither team has anything left to play for, but the pitching matchup is genuinely sharp for a couple of last-place clubs. Bryan Woo just shut out this same Athletics lineup for eight innings on Sept 7, and given his tidy command profile — a 1.06 WHIP, strong strikeout rate, and 96-plus mph heat — he's clearly the headliner here, backed by the highest pNERD score in the game at 8.16, boosted further by strong strike-throwing and some positive regression-luck still on the table. Across from him, 23-year-old rookie Gage Jump brings mid-90s velocity and a live arm but pairs it with real wildness — a 4.2 BB/9 that keeps his outings volatile — yet still rates well above average on pNERD (7.45) thanks to youth and stuff. Both teams are non-factors in the standings and both grade out poorly on tNERD, with the Mariners' porous fielding and the A's shaky defense and thin lineup dragging the team components toward replacement level. So this is a pitcher's ballpark, a pitcher's duel, and not much else — watch it for Woo's changeup, not for playoff stakes. The gNERD of 10.15 lands almost exactly at the historical midpoint, but below today's slate average.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Athletics

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Gage Jump, Athletics

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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Both teams are already out of the playoff race (72-76-ish, buried behind the pack), but there's just enough late-season texture here to make this watchable, mostly thanks to a rookie reliever-turned-starter having a quietly excellent year. Spencer Miles is the story: at 25 years old with a 76 xFIP-, 96.3 mph heat, and a 6-2 mark backed by a stingy 0.51 HR/9 rate, he anchors a pNERD of 8.53 that's comfortably above today's average. The catch is workload — he has just 87.2 innings across 45 appearances, only six of them starts, and has not been asked for six innings, so don't expect length. Kyle Bradish, on the other hand, drags things down: his walk rate and grinding pace (2.31 z-score!) sap his pNERD to a modest 2.45, and he's gone just 4.0, 5.0 and 4.1 innings in his last three starts, with a 1.42 WHIP explaining the pattern. Both bullpens will be tested early, especially after Friday's wild seven-run outburst that included six straight hits against Max Scherzer and ended with the tying run at the plate before Baltimore held on, 7-4. Toronto's putrid barrel rate (worst of the two by a wide margin) keeps their tNERD low, while Baltimore's bullpen strength and barrel-rate advantage give them the edge on paper. Overall gNERD of 10.09 sits almost exactly at the historical median — a perfectly ordinary Saturday game, elevated only by Miles's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Spencer Miles, Toronto Blue Jays

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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

Both Texas and Arizona are fighting for their playoff lives, which is really the only thing carrying this one across the finish line as watchable. Arizona sits in a tight NL West/Wild Card scrum, clinging to a half-game edge in the Wild Card race, while Texas is clawing at a fading AL West chase three games back of Houston — desperation baseball, even if the on-field product is middling. The Diamondbacks just thumped the Rangers 9-1 the night before, and Texas has reportedly gone cold at the plate while Arizona's lineup is hitting its stride, adding a bit of "which direction do these teams keep going" intrigue heading in. On the mound, Kumar Rocker has had a rough go of it, and Brandon Pfaadt, who's quietly pitched better than his surface earned numbers suggest lately, gets a modest xFIP-based edge and a strong strike-throwing profile. Neither arm stands out as a real reason to tune in, though — both pNERD scores sit in unremarkable territory. Team-wise, Texas's stats are being buoyed by an outsized luck figure that suggests real regression risk, so the gNERD of 9.69 sits a bit below the historical average, and comfortably below today's slate average of 11.34 — a game to watch only if the standings drama pulls you in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:10p

Summary

Tampa Bay just clinched a playoff spot on a walk-off homer, and this pitching matchup is a genuine contrast in styles even if the raw NERD math says "meh." The Rays clinched their first playoff berth in franchise-adjacent recent memory behind Junior Caminero's game-winning home run off Houston reliever Bryan Abreu in the series opener, so there's a party atmosphere at Tropicana Field even with a lesser gNERD score of 9.57 - below the historic median and near the bottom of today's range. Ian Seymour brings the intrigue on the mound: his 8.71 pNERD is driven by strong strikeout and strike-throwing peripherals, plus a hefty positive luck score suggesting his underlying stuff is better than his results lately, and indeed over his past five appearances Seymour has struggled to a 5.18 ERA while allowing a .573 slugging percentage against. Across the mound, Peter Lambert's 2.60 pNERD is unspectacular, though his road work stands out with a 3.00 ERA in nine road starts. Team-wise, Houston's negative tNERD reflects rough baserunning and fielding marks, while Tampa Bay's offense and payroll efficiency (a real shoestring-budget club overachieving) push their tNERD higher. Not a marquee game, but Seymour's swing-and-miss stuff and the Rays' clinching afterglow make it watchable enough.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

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Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Both teams are out of playoff contention and this game's gNERD score of 7.44 sits well below average, so treat it as background noise rather than appointment viewing. Colorado, already eliminated for a second straight year, brings a dreadful road record and the league's worst offensive and fielding profiles into Comerica Park, while Detroit's own team NERD only clears the bar thanks to bullpen depth and a modest two-game win streak. Tanner Gordon offers the day's lone bright spot on the mound—his elevated strike rate and some positive regression luck push his pNERD to 5.40—though he's been shaky overall, carrying a 5.40 ERA this season and a career line against Detroit that includes a 10.24 ERA. Opposite him, rookie Andrew Sears is a near-total mystery statistically, having made just 12.1 innings in the majors, with reports suggesting he'll likely work on a short leash, pushing middle innings to Detroit's bullpen. If you're hunting drama, look elsewhere; if you like watching a rookie navigate his second big-league start against a punchless lineup, this'll do.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Colorado Rockies

Detroit Tigers

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

Andrew Sears, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

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