MLB: What to watch on September 13, 2026

• 13 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

A high-strikeout, high-drama series finale that ranks near the top of the day's watchability board, thanks to two hard-throwing arms who can't quite stay out of their own way. This one caps a weekend set in Miami with the Dodgers (90-58, riding an 8-2 stretch) looking to close out the Marlins (73-76, losers of seven of ten) in a dome that's been pitcher-friendly all year. Emmet Sheehan's 5.08 ERA undersells him — he's racked up 118 strikeouts in 101 innings and just struck out 10 over 5.2 innings in a 6-3 win over Cincinnati, and his pNERD (7.29) reflects a nasty swinging-strike rate and youthful upside. Eury Pérez, at just 23 with a mid-90s-plus fastball touching 98, has been electric but leaky lately — he's allowed five-plus runs while failing to reach the fifth inning in three straight outings, walking four against Washington and three against the Mets. Both bullpens are taxed after a bullpen-heavy Saturday, adding some late-inning intrigue. With a gNERD of 15.66 — comfortably above today's 11.35 average and near the historic 95th percentile — and Miami's tNERD boosted by youth, baserunning, and some positive luck, this game earns its spot near the top of the watch list even without a marquee team on paper.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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New York Mets @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

A Subway Series finale with legitimate Cy Young intrigue on the mound and a rivalry that's already delivered fireworks this weekend. Cam Schlittler brings an AL-best mark and a strikeout total befitting a genuine Cy Young frontrunner, and the underlying numbers back it up — his xFIP- sits nearly two standard deviations better than league average, with mid-90s-plus velocity and a swinging-strike rate that leads to a pNERD score comfortably above today's average and well into historically elite territory. Christian Scott is the clear undercard, a serviceable arm with a solid strikeout rate but nothing that jumps off the page. The Yankees' offense, powered by Ben Rice's big year, gives them the higher tNERD of the two clubs, while the Mets counter with the better broadcast booth and a barrel rate that keeps their lineup dangerous despite a middling season. This is also revenge-game territory: New York's NL side torched Gerrit Cole for a 12-2 rout the day before, so the Yankees will want their ace-in-waiting to settle things down. With the Yankees fighting for AL East ground and the wild card, and a gNERD score near the top of today's slate, this one's worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

New York Yankees

Christian Scott, New York Mets

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Milwaukee's clinched the playoffs, Cincinnati has lost five straight, and this series has been an offensive bloodbath — so naturally the two teams send out a shutdown ace on an innings limit against a lefty who can't get out of the fifth inning. That contrast alone makes this worth a look. Chase Burns, Cincinnati's one true weapon, carries a 10.37 pNERD (well above today's 5.73 average) on the strength of 176 strikeouts and 15 wins, elite velocity, and a nasty whiff rate — though the Reds have him on a strict pitch count, and he's thrown only three innings in his most recent outing on September 7, allowing no hits and striking out five. Robert Gasser, by contrast, is scuffling; he's failed to complete five innings in four of his last five starts, including outings of 4.2, 4.1 and 3.2 frames, though his 4.54 pNERD is still respectable given his knack for throwing strikes. Milwaukee's tNERD (10.20) is near the top of today's slate, fueled by strong batting, baserunning and bullpen numbers, and Cincinnati's outfield still stings from allowing 42 combined runs in 48 hours to this same lineup. With a gNERD of 14.88 versus a historical average around 10.8, this one's a legitimate watch — just don't expect Burns to stick around all afternoon.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

The Cubs' offense and defense do the heavy lifting here, while the Pirates provide the fireworks-adjacent name (98-mph heat) and playoff desperation on the other side. Chicago is riding one of the best all-around teams in the league — Chicago brings MLB's most prolific offense at 5.34 runs per game — with elite fielding and batting numbers driving their tNERD to 10.47, comfortably above today's average and near the historic 95th percentile. Pittsburgh's tNERD (6.86) is more modest but buoyed by strong baserunning and bullpen work, even if the roster's low payroll and shaky fielding drag it down. On the mound, Bubba Chandler brings a fastball that touches 98-99 mph, and that's never easy to face, but he walks a lot of guys and isn't a strikeout artist; in his last start he went six innings against the White Sox, allowing two runs on four hits, while striking out eight batters. Matthew Boyd, meanwhile, has been a rollercoaster — it's been a weird season for Boyd, who was injured twice, then had hot and cold streaks with bad peripherals, and is now finally evening out, though he's lost each of his last five starts. This is a solidly above-average watch (gNERD 13.66 vs. today's 11.35 mean), carried more by the Cubs' well-rounded roster and playoff stakes than by a marquee pitching duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, 12:05p

Summary

Two rookie-ish lefties, a rubber match, and a bullpen chasm wide enough to sail the Mayflower through — this one's got some juice. Payton Tolle, Boston's 23-year-old, is the headliner: he carries a 3.15 ERA/1.08 WHIP with 159 strikeouts, and just weeks ago recorded a career-high 14 strikeouts over six innings against the Athletics, becoming the youngest Red Sox pitcher to reach that mark since Roger Clemens. His 10.35 pNERD is comfortably above today's 10.91 ceiling neighborhood, fueled by elite strike-throwing and a filthy xFIP-. Noah Cameron isn't just a foil, either — his 3.93 ERA understates his current form, as over his last seven starts he's 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Both arms are stretched thin lately — neither is a workhorse, having cleared six innings exactly once in their last six starts — so bullpens will matter, and that's where things get lopsided: Boston's pen (tNERD-boosting +1.36 z-score) dwarfs Kansas City's beleaguered relief corps (-2.16). It's the finale of a tied series with a decisive-game jolt, elite pitching, and a middling but earned 13.56 gNERD — comfortably above the 10.81 historic average and today's 11.35 slate average.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Kansas City Royals

Boston Red Sox

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants, 4:20p

Summary

A playoff-hungry team steamrolling a last-place club still has some juice, especially with a nifty pitching matchup atop it. The Padres arrive at Oracle Park having won six straight and looking to complete a sweep of the last-place Giants as San Diego fights to hold its NL Wild Card spot, and after Saturday's win paired with an Arizona loss, they sit a game and a half clear of the Diamondbacks — so every out here matters, even if the Giants are mostly playing out the string under first-year manager Tony Vitello, the first Giants skipper hired without professional coaching experience. The lopsided tNERD split (Padres 10.17 to Giants 3.65) tracks with reality: San Diego's bullpen and defense are elite by the numbers, while San Francisco's baserunning and fielding are dragging them down, though a positive Giants luck score suggests they've been a bit unlucky. On the mound, Webb and Pivetta both grade out comparably (pNERD 6.03 and 5.95) thanks to strong xFIP-, giving this laugher-on-paper actual pitching integrity. Not a classic, but a legitimately watchable stretch-run game with real stakes on one side.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

Baltimore's rebuild is a lost cause standings-wise, but Dylan Cease is worth tuning in for regardless of what's on the scoreboard. Cease has been the AL's premier strikeout artist all year, and his stuff-driven numbers here are the best of any pitcher in this dataset's ballpark — his xFIP- of 68 crushes league average and drives a 9.18 pNERD that's comfortably above today's slate norm. He enters with a 2.40 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 27 starts, leading the AL with 12.7 Ks per nine innings, though he was a bit shakier last time out, needing 94 pitches to cover five innings at Oakland on September 7, allowing four earned runs. Trevor Rogers is the far less shiny name, but his elite strike-throwing and a swing-and-miss uptick still make him a competent 6.64 pNERD complement. Toronto's offense projects as thin on paper — Blue Jays' batting runs and barrel rate both grade out poorly — but a strong glove and a bit of positive regression luck balance the ledger. Baltimore, playing out the string at 72-77, brings a solid bullpen and better underlying batted-ball quality despite its own bad luck. At 12.65, the gNERD sits above both the historical and today's averages, so if strikeouts are your thing, this one's worth a look even with a wild-card race backdrop only Toronto cares about.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

A rookie fireballer with a wild command problem faces a control-conscious sinkerballer, in a game that's solidly above-average on paper but light on real drama. David Sandlin, the 25-year-old right-hander the White Sox nabbed from Boston in the Jordan Hicks trade, brings a 6.93 ERA with 24 strikeouts in his brief big-league run since debuting in late May, but the eye-catching number here is his stuff — 96.3 mph heat that pushes his pNERD to a tidy 6.28, propped up further by a hefty luck correction suggesting his ugly ERA should trend downward. Opposite him, Michael McGreevy is a groundball-y innings-eater who allowed only two earned runs across 6.2 innings in his most recent outing against the Giants, though his fringy velocity and modest whiff rates cap his NERD upside at 3.50. Team-wise, the young, cheap White Sox (tNERD 8.43) actually outshine a stumbling Cardinals club that's lost four of its last five games and owns a middling 5.92 mark despite a punchless bullpen. The 12.07 gNERD lands right around today's average — watchable if you like scouting live-arm rookies, skippable if you need star power.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

St. Louis Cardinals

David Sandlin, Chicago White Sox

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves, 10:35a

Summary

A pitching duel between a power arm with swing-and-miss stuff and a division leader riding a hot streak, even if the surrounding won-loss context makes this feel more like playoff jockeying than a marquee showcase. Andrew Painter brings his 7.55 pNERD and mid-90s heat to Truist Park, and he's been sneaky-effective against Atlanta lately — in his last start on Sept. 7 against the Phillies he threw 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, though his season line remains rocky and command-dependent. Grant Holmes, by contrast, is solid-if-unspectacular (3.70 pNERD), with decent swinging-strike rates but below-average command. The Braves have been the story here: Ronald Acuña Jr. homered to spark an eight-run fourth inning in Saturday's blowout, and Atlanta has gone 9-3 against Philadelphia recently while riding a five-game streak of out-scoring the previous matchup. Both offenses carry real thump (Schwarber, Harper, Olson), but the tNERD marks are middling — right around league average on both sides. With a gNERD of 10.66, sitting just below the historical median, this is a fine but unremarkable watch, elevated mainly by Painter's stuff and the NL East stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

Both teams are on the fringes of contention — Cleveland (75-74) and Minnesota (70-78) — and this getaway-day rubber match won't shift the AL Central race much, but the pitching matchup gives it a modest reason to tune in. Joe Ryan is quietly having one of the better seasons among mid-rotation arms, and his pNERD of 6.52 (driven by a strong 87 xFIP-) reflects real swing-and-miss stuff, not just a shiny record. He'll oppose Tanner Bibee, who is looking to rebound from his recent struggles on the mound after a rough year overall — he's looking to have a better outing than his last two starts, both pitchers have not had strong outings in their last two. Cleveland's tNERD (6.58) edges out Minnesota's (3.29), thanks to a younger, cheaper roster and a solid bullpen, though the Guardians' offense has been light on power. The Twins, meanwhile, have played below average baseball recently, losing four of their last six games, and got a jolt Saturday when Emmanuel Rodriguez hit his first career home run in his first career at-bat after being called up. With a combined gNERD of 9.58 — below the day's 11.35 average — this one's watchable mainly for Ryan's arm, not the stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

A playoff-race afternoon in the desert with a genuinely tough lefty on the mound, even if the underlying NERD math shrugs. Eduardo Rodriguez has quietly been one of the better arms in the NL this year — he carries a 15-5 record and a 2.55 ERA across 29 starts, with 128 strikeouts in 173 innings and a 1.20 WHIP, ranking third in the NL in ERA — and he's coming off six scoreless innings at Houston and working on extra rest. Cal Quantrill counters after throwing seven scoreless innings against Tampa Bay on September 3, though his pNERD (2.46) reflects a modest swing-and-miss profile rather than dominance. Both teams have something on the line: Texas sits at 73-76, two games behind Houston in the AL West, and trying to stay in the Wild Card picture, while Arizona enters at 79-70, third in the NL West and chasing a Wild Card spot themselves. The Diamondbacks' tNERD gets a boost from strong fielding and baserunning, while Texas leans on a batting edge and a heap of positive regression-implying luck. None of this screams must-watch — a gNERD of 8.56 sits below today's 11.35 average and well under the historic 10.81 mean — but a real playoff stakes game with a legitimate frontline starter in Rodriguez is worth a glance if nothing louder is on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals, 10:35a

Summary

A last-place matchup with a shaky bullpen storyline, but not much star power to hang your hat on. The Nationals are chasing a series sweep of the Angels, and the backdrop here is almost comically bad: Washington's bullpen has been quietly making history, and the unit owns a 5.09 ERA, second-worst in baseball, and it set the all-time blown-save record this month before adding another Saturday. Saturday's extra-inning finish alone should tell you these two clubs (56-92 and 69-81) aren't playing for much beyond pride. Grayson Rodriguez brings real stuff to the mound — his 96-plus mph velocity and youth push his pNERD to 5.56, comfortably above average for today's slate — but he's coming off a rough start to September, going 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts after a strong August. Riley Cornelio, on the other hand, grades out as fairly pedestrian: quality swing-and-miss stuff undercut by poor command and a slow pace. On the team side, Washington's youth, baserunning and barrel rate give it a genuinely strong 8.20 tNERD, but the Angels' broken-down roster (0.71 tNERD, near the historic bottom) drags the gNERD down to 8.44 — below both the historic and today's averages. Watch if you like bullpen chaos; skip if you want crisp baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Los Angeles Angels

Washington Nationals

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Riley Cornelio, Washington Nationals

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Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:40a

Summary

A late-season getaway game with playoff stakes on one side and pride on the other, featuring a solid but unspectacular pitching matchup. The Rays are chasing a division crown while the Astros are just trying to stay above water, and that stakes imbalance shows up in the numbers—Tampa Bay's tNERD (5.01) comfortably outpaces Houston's (2.62), boosted by a modest payroll and some positive batting luck that suggests they could be even better than they've shown. Houston's lineup has been genuinely snakebitten on the bases, dragging down an otherwise middling profile.

On the mound, Hayden Wesneski enters at 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over eight starts, and has been sharper still lately, allowing four earned runs in his last 23 innings, including seven shutout innings against the White Sox on September 2. Freddy Peralta, meanwhile, carries strikeout stuff with 142 Ks in 153 innings, but an 8-11 record and 4.82 ERA — his control has wavered enough this year to knock some shine off his peripherals, though positive luck suggests better days may be ahead. Both arms grade out almost identically around 4.4 pNERD—comfortably average. Overall gNERD sits at 8.24, a notch below the historical mean and today's slate average, making this a watchable but hardly essential outing, mostly worth it for the Rays' playoff push and Wesneski's recent form.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays

Hayden Wesneski, Houston Astros

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

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Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers, 9:10a

Summary

Two last-place clubs playing out the string, but the pitching matchup has a bit of juice: hard-throwing 23-year-old Jackson Jobe against a Rockies lineup that can't stop chasing October. Detroit is limping toward irrelevance at 69-79 but has won three straight and just took the first two games of this series, including an 11-7 comeback Saturday. Colorado, meanwhile, is 55-93, losers of six straight, and has been one of baseball's worst road teams. Jobe, at 97+ mph with a 6.03 pNERD, is the headliner — his velocity and youth are legitimately elite, though he's not reached the sixth inning once in 2026, so don't expect length. Gabriel Hughes is still hunting his first big-league win, but he's quietly still searching for his first major league win while showing distinct improvement recently, posting a 1.86 ERA across two September starts, and his positive luck score suggests he's underperforming his peripherals. Both bullpens are shaky, particularly Colorado's, which blew a three-run lead just yesterday. With a gNERD of 7.92 — below the historic average and below today's slate average — this is more about watching two intriguing young arms than any grand stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Colorado Rockies

Detroit Tigers

Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

This is a bottom-of-the-standings tilt between two teams playing out the string, redeemed only slightly by Bryce Miller having decent stuff and a historically lopsided rivalry moment fresh in everyone's mind. At 6.19, the gNERD sits well below today's 11.35 average and near the low end of the historic range, so temper expectations. The Mariners just hit five home runs and racked up 23 hits in a 19-1 rout, their most hits since 2004 and most runs since 2012, which makes a rematch feel almost unfair. Miller carries the pitching intrigue here, his 6.96 pNERD driven by strong strike-throwing and 95.9 mph velocity, though he's 0-7 with a 6.89 ERA over his last 10 outings—positive luck score suggests better days ahead. Lopez, by contrast, projects poorly (0.78 pNERD) with an xFIP well above average, though Cal Raleigh is 4-for-5 with three homers off him lifetime, so watch for fireworks if Seattle's catcher gets his swings in. Both clubs post ugly team-level components—porous fielding and baserunning drag both tNERDs down—making this one for completionists rather than casual viewers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Athletics

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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